Johan Santana is an eventual Hall of Famer, right?

[NAHSTE]

If I could only vote for one or the other (Santana or Sabathia) I would vote for C.C. But I don't put much weight into black/grey ink when thinking about the Hall of Fame. Plus CC is hurt by the fact that his best season (2008) was split between two leagues. Sabathia's time in Milwaukee was probably the greatest pitching performance of his generation.

#SSS

[Goober]

#SSS

It was less then half a season, yes. But in a little over two months, he started 17 games, including 7 complete games (3 shutouts). That's an insane run. I can't name anyone in the current generation who has gone on a similar run.

[EmpireWF]

I think we all agree that he was elite for five seasons ('04-'08). Like, upper level all time elite. Three ERA titles, three strikeout titles, two Cy Youngs, four times led the league in WHIP (thee of those years under 1.000), a true workhorse with 230 innings per year.

But this idea that he's been average since is just not true. 2009 & 2010 he was still one of the best pitchers in baseball. ERA of under 3.00 in 2010, ERA+ of 130 for the two seasons.

The last two years he's been hurt.

So he has five super elite all time great seasons, plus two other good seasons with Mets, plus the one season in 2003 where he burst onto the scene late in the year as a starter and ended up 12-3 with 3.07 ERA.

More to W2B's point, he's never had a real stretch in New York where he was bad. Especially in his first two years here, he legitimately had at least 10 wins knocked off because of the bullpen. Obviously, if they get him those W's, his basic numbers look much better here.

So Johan Santana with 139 career wins is borderline HOFer, but Johan Santana with 149 career wins (all else equal!) is HOLY SHIT PUT THIS MAN IN THE HALL RIGHT NOW?

I wasn't talking about his career numbers or HOF worthy. W2B brought up the idea a lot of people talk about, that he's been subpar in recent years.

[Senser81]

Santana has had an odd career. Two guys who came to mind who I thought would be similar are Ron Guidry and Denny McLain, and neither of those guys are in the HOF. I looked up his baseball reference page, and see that John Tudor is also comparable (?).

To me, Santana doesn't have the body of work to be in the HOF.

[Warner2BruceTD]

Santana has had an odd career. Two guys who came to mind who I thought would be similar are Ron Guidry and Denny McLain, and neither of those guys are in the HOF. I looked up his baseball reference page, and see that John Tudor is also comparable (?).

To me, Santana doesn't have the body of work to be in the HOF.

Sometimes you have to be careful with the B-R similarity scores, because unless the score is close to the mid 900's, those may be the closest matches, but not necessarily players that were all that similar. Some guys just don't have any great comps.

Anyway, I think Guidry is a pretty good measuring stick, and a guy who I think is a bordeline HOF who didn't get nearly the support he should have. And I personally think Johan is better than Guidry.

I think Johan is much closer to Sandy Koufax than he is to a guy like John Tudor, or even Denny McLain, who really only had two great seasons book ended by junk.

[Warner2BruceTD]

So Johan Santana with 139 career wins is borderline HOFer, but Johan Santana with 149 career wins (all else equal!) is HOLY SHIT PUT THIS MAN IN THE HALL RIGHT NOW?

No, what he is saying is the common perception of Santana's Mets years might be different had his W/L record looked a bit better. And he's right.

[Senser81]

I think Johan is much closer to Sandy Koufax than he is to a guy like John Tudor.

I don't. You don't need to be told how good Koufax was.

With Tudor, you had to be reminded how good he was, even when he was still playing. I remember when Tudor was on the 1988 Dodgers, they would always be on TV and the camera would show Tudor sitting in the dugout, with Bob Costas saying "And remember, the Dodgers have John Tudor...", as if Tudor's mere presence in the dugout would be enough for the Dodgers to win the World Series (...and it was!). I watched baseball a lot in the 1980s, and I can't remember ever seeing Tudor pitch.

If I have to be told that Santana is a HOFer, then he falls into the Tudor category moreso than the Koufax category.