Kyle Lohse Signs W/ Brewers: 3y/33M

[Guest]

:greinke:

[MVPete]

Manchild has the inside scoop apparently.

[Villain]

I'm so glad this isn't what the Vernon Wells savings were for.

Lohse would've been a great pickup for the Angels if it were right after the draft. If the Angels' minor leagues weren't so depleted, I think he would've been a decent sign this winter. Has to be better than Tommy Hanson and Joe Blanton by a loooong shot.

[Villain]

Thanks for the first rounder, Milwaukee!

Dodgers get to move up a slot thanks to this signing.



Primetime and Gob: What's your baseball reaction other than rage(expected from goblinslayer) and/or hysterical laughter(evidenced by above-posted gif)? As in, where do you see him in the rotation and do you expect his ERA to say below .300?

33 for 3 years, how does that impact Brewers' short and long-term goals in your opinions? I mean, it's a healthy chunk of change but it's also not a crazy amount of money either.

 

I swear to God I'm not trolling. I just want to talk baseball.

[Goober]

This is the straw that breaks the camels back. I've come to the realization that as long as Doug Melvin is running this team, the Brewers will never be great, despite having the best player in the National League, and arguably MLB. They will always do stupid shit.

2007-Melvin signs Jeff Suppan to a 4 year 42 million deal...4.95 ERA, 1.7 WAR.
2009-Melvin signs Braden Looper...5.22 ERA, -0.8 WAR.
2010-Melvin signs Randy Wolf to a 3 year 30 million deal...4.39 ERA, 3.0 WAR.
2013-Melvin signs Kyle Lohse to a 3 year 33 million deal...

Fool me once, shame on you, fool me twice shame on me. Fool me four times, and someone please send Doug Melvin back to Canada where being fucking retarded is accepted as a fine way of life (see dave).

[Goober]

ZIPS is a Kyle Lohse believer in 2013. They project a 3.63 ERA, with walk and strikeout numbers right in line with his 2012 performance. That's cute I guess. It won't happen, not with the Brewers. Not in Miller Park. Lohse pitches to contact, and gives up a lot of flyballs (37.2 career FB%). Miller Park gives up a ton of homers, and the Brewers infield defense is

The worst part of the deal, is Melvin has once again decided that being mediocre is worth the price of any future hope. The contract has a lot of deferred money, Lohse will only make 4 million in 2013, but the Brewers will be paying him until 2018.

[moneyman255]

Lohse is 10 x better than Jeff Suppan or Randy Wolf, so I don't get why people keep comparing Lohse to Suppan.

Lohse last 2 years had a 6.1 WAR. Suppan had a 3.2 WAR the 2 previous years before Milwaukee signed him, and Wolf had about 5 WAR the 2 previous years.

Lohse:

2011: 3.39 ERA, 3.67 FIP, 4.04 xFIP, 2.5 WAR
2012: 2.86 ERA, 3.51 FIP, 3.96 xFIP, 3.6 WAR

Wolf:

2008: 4.30 ERA, 4.17 FIP, 4.24 xFIP, 2.0 WAR
2009: 3.23 ERA, 3.96 FIP, 4.10 xFIP, 3.0 WAR

Suppan:

2005: 3.57 ERA, 4.53 FIP, 4.37 xFIP, 1.5 WAR
2006: 4.12 ERA, 4.70 FIP, 4.70 xFIP, 1.7 WAR

As you can see, Lohse is a much, much better pitcher than Wolf or Suppan. Lohse also had forearm surgery in 2010 and he's been a much better pitcher since the surgery. He developed a sinker that he now throws 40% of the time (last year) that has allowed him to get more swinging strikes out of the zone and more swing and misses in general. Before, he threw about a 88 MPH FB 60% of the time, and that's when he struggled.

I don't love the deal, I also don't think it's that bad of a deal. It's meh to me. I viewed the Brewers at about 83-84 wins before the Lohse signing. I see them at about 85-86 wins right now which would probably put them 3rd in the NL Central, but I could also see them approaching 90 wins depending on how Fiers/Peralta/Estrada do. The Brewers won 83 games last year with them blowing 11 games in the 9th inning alone. They improved the pen quite a bit with Badenhop/Gorzo/Gonzalez and got rid of Loe/K-Rod/Parra who struggled mightily last year. The offense is exactly the same. Same offense that led the NL in runs scored last year.

The money is about right for Lohse, especially after coming off the season he had last year. I would have preferred 2 years and a team option, but I don't think 3 years will hurt the Brewers in the long run. The draft pick issue sucks, but I understand that Milwaukee needed to get a proven SP if they needed to compete.

I think a good projection for Lohse would be this:

2013: 185 IP, 3.85 ERA, 3.1 WAR
2014: 180 IP, 4.10 ERA, 2.3 WAR
2015: 170 IP, 4.20 ERA, 1.7 WAR

He won't be as good as he was the past two years, but he won't be awful either. #3/4 type numbers.

[moneyman255]

Also, since the surgery, Lohse's control has gotten a lot better and he's striking out more batters.

BB/9:

2010: 3.42 2011: 2.01 2012: 1.62

K/9:

2010: 5.28 2011: 5.30 2012: 6.10


BB %:

2010: 8.1% 2011: 5.4% 2012: 4.4%

K %:

2010: 12.5% 2011: 14.3% 2012: 16.6%

[Primetime]

Of course you would come in to defend this

[moneyman255]

ZIPS is a Kyle Lohse believer in 2013. They project a 3.63 ERA, with walk and strikeout numbers right in line with his 2012 performance. That's cute I guess. It won't happen, not with the Brewers. Not in Miller Park. Lohse pitches to contact, and gives up a lot of flyballs (37.2 career FB%). Miller Park gives up a ton of homers, and the Brewers infield defense is

The worst part of the deal, is Melvin has once again decided that being mediocre is worth the price of any future hope. The contract has a lot of deferred money, Lohse will only make 4 million in 2013, but the Brewers will be paying him until 2018.

Lohse developed a sinker in 2010. Since then:

FB %:

2010: 37.9%
2011: 36.7%
2012: 35.6%

I also like the fact that they deferred money in 2016. This allows the Brewers to add a piece mid-season if they are competitive this year. Remember in 2008 when they traded for CC or in 2011 when they traded for K-Rod? You never know what the Brewers will do this season, and if they are still in the race this gives Melvin flexibility in adding the much needed piece.

[moneyman255]

Of course you would come in to defend this

I clearly said I didn't love the signing. I just don't get why people are so pissed about this. It's a meh deal to me.

[moneyman255]

This is the straw that breaks the camels back. I've come to the realization that as long as Doug Melvin is running this team, the Brewers will never be great, despite having the best player in the National League, and arguably MLB. They will always do stupid shit.

2007-Melvin signs Jeff Suppan to a 4 year 42 million deal...4.95 ERA, 1.7 WAR.
2009-Melvin signs Braden Looper...5.22 ERA, -0.8 WAR.
2010-Melvin signs Randy Wolf to a 3 year 30 million deal...4.39 ERA, 3.0 WAR.
2013-Melvin signs Kyle Lohse to a 3 year 33 million deal...

Fool me once, shame on you, fool me twice shame on me. Fool me four times, and someone please send Doug Melvin back to Canada where being fucking retarded is accepted as a fine way of life (see dave).

Brewers been to the playoffs two of the last four years. 2 outs away from going to the world series. Acquired Greinke and Marcum. Traded for CC Sabathia without giving up hardly anyone. How's Laporta or Brantley doing? Acquired K-Rod for basically cash and two sucky players. Even though K-Rod struggled in 2012, he was still very good down the stretch in the 2011 playoff run. Obviously he's made some stupid moves, but what GM hasn't? Melvin is an above average GM.

This signing also had Attanasio written all over it. Boras always had conversations with him about how great Lohse would look on the Brewers etc while Melvin was against it. I think the fact that the young pitchers struggling in ST had something to do with it as well.

[Goober]

Brewers been to the playoffs two of the last four years. 2 outs away from going to the world series. Acquired Greinke and Marcum. Traded for CC Sabathia without giving up hardly anyone. How's Laporta or Brantley doing? Acquired K-Rod for basically cash and two sucky players. Even though K-Rod struggled in 2012, he was still very good down the stretch in the 2011 playoff run. Obviously he's made some stupid moves, but what GM hasn't? Melvin is an above average GM.

This signing also had Attanasio written all over it. Boras always had conversations with him about how great Lohse would look on the Brewers etc while Melvin was against it. I think the fact that the young pitchers struggling in ST had something to do with it as well.

2 out of five.

Brewers lost to the Cardinals in six games, not sure how that gets them two outs away.

[Woy]

2 out of five.

Brewers lost to the Cardinals in six games, not sure how that gets them two outs away.

He was talking about his franchise in The Show.

[moneyman255]

I meant two games w/e it was 3 AM.

You think Melvin is a bad GM yet you wont admit that he made some awesome moves as well. Nyjer Morgan signing that helped them in 2011, Hairston Jr trade, K-Rod trade, signing Braun to 8 year extension when he was a rookie, Greinke trades, Sabathia trade etc.

Also, Melvin was on MLB Network a few weeks ago and said they wouldn't sign Lohse because of the draft pick. I guarantee you that this move occurred because of Mark Attanasio. You know how competitive he is, and he probably saw the younger pitchers struggling and thought they needed to get this done.