2007/2008 MLB Contract Retrospective

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  • Goober
    Needs a hobby
    • Feb 2009
    • 12271

    2007/2008 MLB Contract Retrospective

    I thought it would be interesting to look back and see how some of the bigger contracts signed a few years ago have worked out for the respective teams involved. I looked at all the contracts signed prior to the 2007 and 2008 MLB seasons, since these deals are now all finished, or almost finished (except for one), and we have a pretty good idea how each worked out. In total there were 14 big contracts signed over the time period selected. Of those contracts, only two seem to have worked out favorably for the team who signed the player (Chase Utley and Miguel Cabrera), of course these two contracts bought out years of team control, so they likely came at a cheaper rate, then the contracts on this list that came through free agency. Furthermore, there are four contracts where the team got fair production from the player (Aramis Ramirez, Ichiro, Torii Hunter, and Justin Morneau), and in the remaining eight contracts, the team grossly overpaid considering player performance.

    To keep the analysis simple, I used Fangraphs War, and valued each win at 5 million.
  • Warner2BruceTD
    2011 Poster Of The Year
    • Mar 2009
    • 26142

    #2
    Why $5M per win?

    Comment

    • Goober
      Needs a hobby
      • Feb 2009
      • 12271

      #3
      Originally posted by Warner2BruceTD
      Why $5M per win?
      If you add up the total MLB salaries in a given year, and then divide it by the total WAR for that year, you get an approximate value of what a win cost in that year. Currently that number is about 5 million, rising slowly. Considering these deals started in 2007, when the cost per win, was lower, this analysis is a bit conservative, but I wanted to keep things simple.

      Comment

      • NAHSTE
        Probably owns the site
        • Feb 2009
        • 22233

        #4
        Originally posted by Warner2BruceTD
        Why $5M per win?
        C'mon, this is like first day of kindergarten SABR. That's the market value for a marginal win. I think it's roughly 5.5 now though with inflation.

        Comment

        • Villain
          [REDACTED]
          • May 2011
          • 7768

          #5
          Damn Chase Utley has 37 WAR...
          [REDACTED]

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