Boras belives Choo is worth "way more" than $100 million

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  • ThomasTomasz
    • Nov 2024

    Boras belives Choo is worth "way more" than $100 million

    Rare has one contract prediction created such a stir as an unnamed general manager suggesting last month that Reds outfielder Shin-Soo Choo would get $90 million to $100 million via the free-agent market this winter.

    Commenters, tweeps and readers couldn't believe it. Almost collectively, they shot back, "No way!"

    Guess what? Choo's agent Scott Boras agrees that that estimate isn't in the ballpark. But he means the estimate is low.

    Boras was asked recently about the $100 million estimate (the high end of our GM's guess), and he suggested it is low, way low.

    "As a custom of the industry, prognostications by executives this time of year are dramatically divergent from the real market," Boras said in a phone interview. "I don't think anyone correctly predicted what Jayson Werth or Carl Crawford got."

    If the Reds' lead-off man does get $100 million, or more, it is believed he'd become the first the nine-figure player who never has made an All-Star team. Werth, Zack Greinke, Ryan Zimmerman, Mike Hampton, Mark Teixeira and Carlos Beltran are six rare players of 43 who've landed $100 million-plus deals who made only one All-Star team before signing their big deals (Beltran has made seven more All-Star teams since and Teixeira one more). Teams did commit more than $100 million apiece for Daisuke Matsuzaka and Yu Darvish, who were just coming to MLB, though they both received only a little more than half the money.

    That non-All-Star note just may be a fluke since Choo is having an All-Star-caliber season, with 21 home runs, 106 runs, 20 stolen bases, a .287 batting average, .891 OPS, and most notably, a .424 on-base percentage, which is good for second best in the NL behind teammate Joey Votto.

    "I think the hardest position to make the All-Star team is outfielder, and it's very difficult for a lead-off hitter," Boras said. "Those spots usually go to corner power guys."

    Choo's All-Star exclusion may be nothing more than a oddity. But it could be affecting those winter prognostications. Three more executives were quizzed, and while they have a management perspective, two guessed $75 million for five years and one guessed $56 million for four.

    Two of the execs were obviously looking at B.J. Upton's $75.5 million, five-year deal, and the third was eying Michael Bourn's $48 million, four-year deal. Boras, however, doesn't believe they are in the ballpark. He says the first issue is the faulty presumption that five years is the limit. Werth, who was slightly older as a free agent, received seven years.

    "The value of a lead-off hitter who has a .420 on-base percentage, 20-stolen base speed, 20-home run power, the ability to score 100 runs, and who has the ability to play center field and is a Gold Glove type defender in right field is immense," Boras said. "We don't see these types of players in the free-agent market. I only want to talk about our clients, and the last one we had anywhere near this was Jayson Werth."

    Boras also pointed out that Werth was considered a 32-year-old player his first season in Washington while Choo will be considered to be 31 (though technically, only a two-month gap separates the two players).

    The Werth contract, for $126 million over seven years, was widely panned as a terrific overpay at the time, though the Nationals aren't expressing great regret and Werth certainly is living up to the deal his third year into it.

    "With free agency, you never know," said one of the execs who guessed $75 million, adding, "Jayson Werth is one of the worst contracts ever. If I hear Jayson Werth, it's in one ear and out the other."

    But one more point to be made is that Werth's contract (and Crawford's) came three years ago. And Baseball is flush with cash at the moment. One thing both sides agree on is that MLB teams are doing better than ever financially, with a few notable exceptions.

    Choo's career slash line of .288/.389/.465/.854 is actually slightly better than Werth's .273/.366/.470/.836. Boras also pointed out that Choo has had significant time in center field now this year (and could obviously play there if need be, as he's doing it for a playoff team this year), and even more important, is proven as a lead-off hitter after a huge year in Cincinnati, where he more than fulfilled their hopes for him.

    No surprise, Reds general manager Walt Jocketty has said they intend to try to keep Choo. The Rangers, Cubs, and Mets have been mentioned as other potential suitors, with the Giants and Red Sox possibly needing outfielders in the event free agents Hunter Pence and Jacoby Ellsbury leave, and the Yankees always are a wild card, especially if they ditch their current plan to get below a $189 million payroll.

    Boras said he wouldn't discuss any players as comparables who aren't his. But one other name that is sure to come up as a comparable has to be Crawford, who signed for $142 million over seven years the same winter Werth signed. Crawford has much more speed than Choo but his slash line (down a bit since the signing) isn't as good either at .292/.332/.438/.770.

    And while Choo has proved passable in center field, Crawford always has played left. Plus, Choo has established himself as a prototype lead-off hitter, a role Crawford never really embraced until this season.

    Of course, there may be as many folks who would criticize the Crawford deal as the Werth one, as Werth has come much closer to living up to his contract. (Though the Red Sox surprised folks when they were able to unload most of the Crawford contract in a deal that also involved Adrian Gonzalez and Josh Beckett, an August, 2012 blockbuster trade with the Dodgers.)

    Choo's biggest break may have come when the Reds acquired him and moved him into the lead-off spot, where he has thrived.

    "There are so many teams that need a lead-off hitter," Boras said.

    The need surely is there at a time the teams are flush with cash, and Choo has some standout stats, especially that OBP.

    Boras has been known to aim high on occasion. But in this case, Choo has made a compelling case.

    While Choo never has been an All-Star, he's blessed with the most important of all assets, and that is timing.

    http://www.cbssports.com/mlb/writer/...s-actually-low


    Who cares about AS appearances (which is the point of this article) but Choo compares so much between Crawford and Werth that I would be extremely hesitant to give him that much cash.
  • SuperKevin
    War Hero
    • Dec 2009
    • 8759

    #2
    Translation: The Washington Nationals will outbid themselves to the tune of 110 million or so

    Comment

    • Warner2BruceTD
      2011 Poster Of The Year
      • Mar 2009
      • 26142

      #3
      The Werth & Upton deals were awful the second the ink dried, and may really screw up the market.

      Choo's lowest OBP in a reasonably full season is .344, and that was an injury riddled year with a bad thumb. Otherwise, he's a .400 OBP guy, which is rare air and a huge asset.

      With that said, I do believe that this is his career year. His walks & HBP are by far career highs. He's one off his career high in HR, two off in SB. He picked the right time to have an MVP caliber offensive year.

      I wanted Choo in Cincy for years, and was ecstatic to get him, even for one year. I don't think they will retain him, because somebody is going to break the bank on him and the Reds will just move on to Hamilton in CF. My ideal scenario is that the rumors of Choo falling in love with the city & the clubhouse are true, and he insists that Boras get something done with Jocketty, even if that means a discount. He can move to LF & sit vs tough lefties, with Hamilton in CF who would sit vs tough righties, with Choo moving to CF. Ludwick fills in under both scenarios, and then Ludwick is gone in 2015.

      Comment

      • dave
        Go the fuck outside
        • Oct 2008
        • 15492

        #4
        When Jay Z tries to go after Scott Boras, this is where every black baseball player should tell Jay Z to go fuck himself. Scott Boras gets you paid, Jay Z entertains you on the headphones.
        My Twitch video link: http://www.twitch.tv/dave374000

        Twitch archived games link: http://www.twitch.tv/dave374000/profile/past_broadcasts

        Comment

        • Villain
          [REDACTED]
          • May 2011
          • 7768

          #5
          Originally posted by dave
          When Jay Z tries to go after Scott Boras, this is where every black baseball player should tell Jay Z to go fuck himself. Scott Boras gets you paid, Jay Z entertains you on the headphones.
          [REDACTED]

          Comment

          • Villain
            [REDACTED]
            • May 2011
            • 7768

            #6
            This reminds me of that video of the crazy guy at a gas station or truck stop or something. He was yelling at everyone in his boxers, then when the cops showed up he ran away from them and jumped in front of a moving train.
            [REDACTED]

            Comment

            • SuperKevin
              War Hero
              • Dec 2009
              • 8759

              #7
              I would imagine that Jay Z's entertainment and industry connections are going to make up for his lack of experience. Jay Z can get these guys endorsement deals and commercial opportunities that Boras can't come close to. Boras may get more on the contract but Jay Z will make up for it off the field

              Comment

              • dave
                Go the fuck outside
                • Oct 2008
                • 15492

                #8
                I am actually not knocking Jay Z. He has built an impressive empire and seems like a decent chap. But he's trying to build his baseball empire by saying Scott Boras is the evil white man trying to take advantage of his people. Boras, by MLB regulations, can't take more than a regulated cut and is a man who has made many, many African-Americans wealthy beyond belief.

                Jay Z raps about how Boras is stealing from players ... when it's in Boras' best interest to make them a shitload of money. Jay-Z is simply preying on baseball players with his iconic status as a rapper.
                My Twitch video link: http://www.twitch.tv/dave374000

                Twitch archived games link: http://www.twitch.tv/dave374000/profile/past_broadcasts

                Comment

                • SuperKevin
                  War Hero
                  • Dec 2009
                  • 8759

                  #9
                  Are you really taking rap lyrics seriously? I'm fairly confident Jay Z doesn't really feel Boras is stealing from people nor is he actively using that stance as a way to sign clients.

                  Comment

                  • Primetime
                    Thank You Prince
                    • Nov 2008
                    • 17526

                    #10

                    Comment

                    • Warner2BruceTD
                      2011 Poster Of The Year
                      • Mar 2009
                      • 26142

                      #11
                      Yeah...so...Mets, Cubs, or Rangers?

                      Comment

                      • LiquidLarry2GhostWF
                        Highwayman
                        • Feb 2009
                        • 15429

                        #12
                        Originally posted by dave
                        OK guys ... at the very least, explain why Jay-Z is a more credible sports agent than Scott Boras.
                        Firstly, while Jay Z is a licensed sports agent, he's just a face and a lead in for marketing purposes.

                        Roc Nation Sports (Jay Z's baby) has partnered with CAA which is one of the biggest representation companies in the country. There is no reason why any client can't get elite level representation by using Roc Nation...its got the backing of CAA who is in the representation biz.

                        Jay Z might be one of the best self-marketers on planet earth and in recent years he's just starting to really expand his expertise and partnered with one of the best companies to lure big time clients to his group.

                        CAA is the home of the Mannings, David Beckham, GSP, D-Wade, Shaun White, Sidney Crosby, Derek Jeter...yeah, they know what their doing and poo poo on Scott Boras.

                        They also work with Timberlake, Kanye, Clooney, Robert Downey...a ton of A-listers.

                        LOL @ dave thinking Jay Z would start his own thing like he's Master P. This is Jay Z we are talking about...he partnered with one of the best. He offers his name brand and marketing savvy to the equation...plus, this potential clients get A+ representation backing them.

                        dave...

                        Last edited by LiquidLarry2GhostWF; 09-26-2013, 12:52 AM.

                        Comment

                        • Goober
                          Needs a hobby
                          • Feb 2009
                          • 12271

                          #13
                          I woke up and thought, "Wow this thread really took off, pete must have set warner off by making fun of Ludwick or something."

                          NOPE. Just a bunch of dave posts with no substance at all.

                          Anyways Choo will be 32 next year, the very peak I could see the market giving him is 5/100. Warner also seems to overvalue you him a bit above. In his career, he has only had an OBP of .400 or more twice. This year, and in 2010, when it was .401.

                          Comment

                          • Villain
                            [REDACTED]
                            • May 2011
                            • 7768

                            #14
                            Originally posted by Warner2BruceTD
                            Yeah...so...Mets, Cubs, or Rangers?
                            Gotta throw Mariners in there, just so Boras can point to another bidder.
                            [REDACTED]

                            Comment

                            • MVPete
                              Old School
                              • Mar 2008
                              • 17500

                              #15
                              Originally posted by Villain
                              Gotta throw Mariners in there, just so Boras can point to another bidder.
                              Not sure if they still have the heavy asian thing going on but if they do he would be perfect. Not to mention their OF sucks ass.

                              Comment

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