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Well, it's pretty much a wrap for the hugely anticipated summer of 2010. Sure, there's a Josh Howard here and a Lou Amundson there, but basically, all the difference-making free agents in this year's class were snapped up a long time ago. (Sorry, Shaq.)
So now it's time to look back and size it all up. Ideally we'd wait 'til a couple of these teams had played actual games with their new rosters, but where's the fun in that? Instead, it's time to jump the gun and offer one man's opinion of the good, the bad and the ugly of the 2010 offseason.
Today we're going to start with the happy stuff: the winners from this year's offseason. And after rehashing all the moves, it seems to me the big gainers are Chicago, Milwaukee, Golden State, San Antonio and Portland. Let me get into detail about how each of those teams succeeded this summer.
But first, let's double-check. Am I leaving anybody out? Trying to think here. Ah, yes …
Miami Heat
Duh. I'd say they had a decent offseason. I think we can all agree on this without the need for detailed analysis.
While we're here, I should mention that I don't get the Joel Anthony contract -- when Miami makes a mistake, it's almost always by falling head over heels for a limited role player like Anthony. But when you walk away from the offseason with three of the four best players in the conference, you can punt $18 million on Joel Anthony and still call it a good summer. Heck, they could have given the $18 million to Billy Joel and they'd still top the list.
Now that we've gotten that out of the way, let's talk about the summer's other winners.
Chicago Bulls
I don't see their failure to get one or two of the Big Three as some kind of big setback. The Bulls already had a lot of young talent and ended up with a much better team than the one they had at the end of April, which I thought was the point of this whole exercise.
They basically traded John Salmons, Kirk Hinrich, a mid-first-round pick and a second-round pick for Carlos Boozer, Kyle Korver, Ronnie Brewer and C.J. Watson. You do that deal in a heartbeat. Boozer and Korver filled glaring needs for post scoring and shooting, respectively, while Watson can take over as the backup point guard and provide another shooter.
Additionally, don't sleep on Turkish import Omer Asik. A second-round pick in 2008, he signed for a mere pittance but should be a solid backup center right away. I'd still like the Bulls to come up with another shooter, but they had a very strong summer.
Milwaukee Bucks
The Bucks were the worst team in the league at drawing fouls last year. Not any more -- human free throw machine Corey Maggette gives them the kind of shot-creating scorer that they desperately needed a year ago, and he cost them nothing. He has his faults, but fans overlook how effective a scorer he is because so many of his points come via the relatively uninteresting free throw.
Drew Gooden was another solid get, providing a massive upgrade from the likes of Kurt Thomas and Dan Gadzuric a year ago. Ideally his deal would be a year or two shorter, but given what other teams paid for frontcourt talent, the Bucks still got a good price. Meanwhile, retaining Salmons was crucial, albeit unfortunately expensive in this market. Remember, teams over the cap have an incentive to overpay their own free agents since it's impossible to replace them, so from that perspective Salmons' price makes sense.
Milwaukee's end-of-roster moves were just as strong. Jon Brockman was flat-out stolen from Sacramento for a second-round pick after leading the NBA in offensive rebound rate last year. Chris Douglas-Roberts also cost the Bucks a second-rounder, but fills a need by giving them another wing who can score. Keyon Dooling won't replace what Luke Ridnour gave them a year ago, but that was the one sacrifice they had to make to pull off the other moves.
It might seem like the Bucks spent a lot, but their cap situation going forward is still really strong and they're two deep at every spot. Fear the Deer, folks -- the Bucks could be a force this year.
Golden State Warriors
Forget about anything that happened on the court. They've got new owners!
It doesn't even matter who the new owners are, just that the reviled Chris Cohan is now the old one. The Warriors' phenomenal history under Cohan includes 15 lottery appearances in 16 seasons and an unrivaled track record of building up and then shredding to pieces any talented young player that came through. The sooner the new guys clean house, the sooner the Warriors can start acting like a real NBA franchise again. Golden State's slavishly loyal fans still pack the arena despite all the losing; one can only imagine the local support if the team started winning consistently.
The new owners (Joe Lacob and Peter Guber) did receive some lovely parting gifts from the Cohan gang. I don't like the David Lee deal, but he'll be a heck of a pick-and-roll partner with Stephen Curry. If the Warriors can find some defensive players to put around those two, especially a tough center, and convince a dumb franchise that Monta Ellis is really good (look at his scoring average!), the rebuilding period may be brief.
San Antonio Spurs
I put the Spurs here because they got under the luxury tax while signing the best free-agent contract of the summer, Brazilian big man Tiago Splitter's three-year, $10 million deal. Splitter could start at center for a good chunk of the league's teams right now, but in a summer in which Brendan Haywood got $55 million, San Antonio got Splitter to cross the pond for relative chump change.
On the other hand, they got under the tax solely because Richard Jefferson opted out of a final year on his deal that would have paid him $15 million. This one raised eyebrows in front offices around the league, many of which suspected that there was a prearranged deal between the two parties.
This isn't an outlandish premise, given that:
• Jefferson told reporters in April that it might be worth it to opt out if he could get a four-year, $40 million deal (he said it right here on April 11).
• That's almost to the dollar the deal he received in July.
• Doing so got the Spurs out of the luxury tax and allowed them to sign Splitter at a discount.
• There didn't appear to be any kind of serious bid from another team to drive up Jefferson's price.
That said, we have no smoking gun that there was any kind of prearranged deal between the Spurs and Jefferson. We don't even have a smokeless gun. All we have is the circumstantial evidence above, as well as two other pieces of information:
1. The Spurs don't sign bad contracts.
2. This is the worst contract of the summer.
Seriously, four years and $39 million for Richard Jefferson? Did Isiah Thomas take over the franchise and not tell anybody? Wings who depend on athleticism have a rough time in their late 20s and early 30s; Jefferson just turned 30. He wasn't a $10 million per year player two years ago, and sure as heck isn't going to be one two years down the road.
Follow the money, however. Jefferson's opt-out and lower-salaried return means the Spurs will save about $17 million in salary, luxury tax and tax distributions this year (if one presumes Splitter was coming regardless). Jefferson's new deal cost $31 million after this season, which is all we care about since the Spurs were paying him in 2010-11 either way. Subtract $17 million from $31 million and you end up with Jefferson's deal as a three-year, $14 million extension, which seems eminently reasonable … if you were going to prearrange such a thing.
So the Spurs ended up with both the best and worst contracts of this offseason. But on balance, they're paying $13 million a year for the next three years for a Splitter-Jefferson combination. I'd take that deal any day, and between it and drafting James Anderson, I think the Spurs are in much better shape for next season than many people realize.
Portland Trail Blazers
As crazy as this sounds with all the mayhem in the front office, the Blazers actually came out of this offseason better than when they started. Since Kevin Pritchard was allowed to operate the draft before being unceremoniously dumped as general manger, Portland ditched Martell Webster's contract and got three promising rookies out of draft day -- most notably high-scoring forward Luke Babbitt, who is exactly the kind of floor-spacing 4 who Nate McMillan loves.
During the interminable delay before hiring Pritchard's successor (note to Blazers honchos Paul Allen and Larry Miller -- if you know several months ahead of time that you're firing the GM, it might be wise to have some kind of succession plan in place), what was left of Portland's front office managed to lure Wesley Matthews from Utah. They overpaid, sure, but they overpaid for a piece that really fits. Matthews will help them with his defense and 3-point shooting -- every team is looking for players like this -- and since I don't imagine Paul Allen will have major objections to the Blazers' being a luxury tax team, the dollars aren't going to hurt them.
Finally, the Blazers made a strong hire by bringing in Oklahoma City's Rich Cho to take over. He adds the cap expertise that the team lost with the firing of Tom Penn earlier in the spring. The Blazers lose Pritchard's scouting eye and deal-making skill, but the organization was already very strong in the former department with NBA scouting director Michael Born and college scouting director Chad Buchanan. Given what a mess this seemed like two months ago, they've ended up in fantastic shape.
So now it's time to look back and size it all up. Ideally we'd wait 'til a couple of these teams had played actual games with their new rosters, but where's the fun in that? Instead, it's time to jump the gun and offer one man's opinion of the good, the bad and the ugly of the 2010 offseason.
Today we're going to start with the happy stuff: the winners from this year's offseason. And after rehashing all the moves, it seems to me the big gainers are Chicago, Milwaukee, Golden State, San Antonio and Portland. Let me get into detail about how each of those teams succeeded this summer.
But first, let's double-check. Am I leaving anybody out? Trying to think here. Ah, yes …
Miami Heat
Duh. I'd say they had a decent offseason. I think we can all agree on this without the need for detailed analysis.
While we're here, I should mention that I don't get the Joel Anthony contract -- when Miami makes a mistake, it's almost always by falling head over heels for a limited role player like Anthony. But when you walk away from the offseason with three of the four best players in the conference, you can punt $18 million on Joel Anthony and still call it a good summer. Heck, they could have given the $18 million to Billy Joel and they'd still top the list.
Now that we've gotten that out of the way, let's talk about the summer's other winners.
Chicago Bulls
I don't see their failure to get one or two of the Big Three as some kind of big setback. The Bulls already had a lot of young talent and ended up with a much better team than the one they had at the end of April, which I thought was the point of this whole exercise.
They basically traded John Salmons, Kirk Hinrich, a mid-first-round pick and a second-round pick for Carlos Boozer, Kyle Korver, Ronnie Brewer and C.J. Watson. You do that deal in a heartbeat. Boozer and Korver filled glaring needs for post scoring and shooting, respectively, while Watson can take over as the backup point guard and provide another shooter.
Additionally, don't sleep on Turkish import Omer Asik. A second-round pick in 2008, he signed for a mere pittance but should be a solid backup center right away. I'd still like the Bulls to come up with another shooter, but they had a very strong summer.
Milwaukee Bucks
The Bucks were the worst team in the league at drawing fouls last year. Not any more -- human free throw machine Corey Maggette gives them the kind of shot-creating scorer that they desperately needed a year ago, and he cost them nothing. He has his faults, but fans overlook how effective a scorer he is because so many of his points come via the relatively uninteresting free throw.
Drew Gooden was another solid get, providing a massive upgrade from the likes of Kurt Thomas and Dan Gadzuric a year ago. Ideally his deal would be a year or two shorter, but given what other teams paid for frontcourt talent, the Bucks still got a good price. Meanwhile, retaining Salmons was crucial, albeit unfortunately expensive in this market. Remember, teams over the cap have an incentive to overpay their own free agents since it's impossible to replace them, so from that perspective Salmons' price makes sense.
Milwaukee's end-of-roster moves were just as strong. Jon Brockman was flat-out stolen from Sacramento for a second-round pick after leading the NBA in offensive rebound rate last year. Chris Douglas-Roberts also cost the Bucks a second-rounder, but fills a need by giving them another wing who can score. Keyon Dooling won't replace what Luke Ridnour gave them a year ago, but that was the one sacrifice they had to make to pull off the other moves.
It might seem like the Bucks spent a lot, but their cap situation going forward is still really strong and they're two deep at every spot. Fear the Deer, folks -- the Bucks could be a force this year.
Golden State Warriors
Forget about anything that happened on the court. They've got new owners!
It doesn't even matter who the new owners are, just that the reviled Chris Cohan is now the old one. The Warriors' phenomenal history under Cohan includes 15 lottery appearances in 16 seasons and an unrivaled track record of building up and then shredding to pieces any talented young player that came through. The sooner the new guys clean house, the sooner the Warriors can start acting like a real NBA franchise again. Golden State's slavishly loyal fans still pack the arena despite all the losing; one can only imagine the local support if the team started winning consistently.
The new owners (Joe Lacob and Peter Guber) did receive some lovely parting gifts from the Cohan gang. I don't like the David Lee deal, but he'll be a heck of a pick-and-roll partner with Stephen Curry. If the Warriors can find some defensive players to put around those two, especially a tough center, and convince a dumb franchise that Monta Ellis is really good (look at his scoring average!), the rebuilding period may be brief.
San Antonio Spurs
I put the Spurs here because they got under the luxury tax while signing the best free-agent contract of the summer, Brazilian big man Tiago Splitter's three-year, $10 million deal. Splitter could start at center for a good chunk of the league's teams right now, but in a summer in which Brendan Haywood got $55 million, San Antonio got Splitter to cross the pond for relative chump change.
On the other hand, they got under the tax solely because Richard Jefferson opted out of a final year on his deal that would have paid him $15 million. This one raised eyebrows in front offices around the league, many of which suspected that there was a prearranged deal between the two parties.
This isn't an outlandish premise, given that:
• Jefferson told reporters in April that it might be worth it to opt out if he could get a four-year, $40 million deal (he said it right here on April 11).
• That's almost to the dollar the deal he received in July.
• Doing so got the Spurs out of the luxury tax and allowed them to sign Splitter at a discount.
• There didn't appear to be any kind of serious bid from another team to drive up Jefferson's price.
That said, we have no smoking gun that there was any kind of prearranged deal between the Spurs and Jefferson. We don't even have a smokeless gun. All we have is the circumstantial evidence above, as well as two other pieces of information:
1. The Spurs don't sign bad contracts.
2. This is the worst contract of the summer.
Seriously, four years and $39 million for Richard Jefferson? Did Isiah Thomas take over the franchise and not tell anybody? Wings who depend on athleticism have a rough time in their late 20s and early 30s; Jefferson just turned 30. He wasn't a $10 million per year player two years ago, and sure as heck isn't going to be one two years down the road.
Follow the money, however. Jefferson's opt-out and lower-salaried return means the Spurs will save about $17 million in salary, luxury tax and tax distributions this year (if one presumes Splitter was coming regardless). Jefferson's new deal cost $31 million after this season, which is all we care about since the Spurs were paying him in 2010-11 either way. Subtract $17 million from $31 million and you end up with Jefferson's deal as a three-year, $14 million extension, which seems eminently reasonable … if you were going to prearrange such a thing.
So the Spurs ended up with both the best and worst contracts of this offseason. But on balance, they're paying $13 million a year for the next three years for a Splitter-Jefferson combination. I'd take that deal any day, and between it and drafting James Anderson, I think the Spurs are in much better shape for next season than many people realize.
Portland Trail Blazers
As crazy as this sounds with all the mayhem in the front office, the Blazers actually came out of this offseason better than when they started. Since Kevin Pritchard was allowed to operate the draft before being unceremoniously dumped as general manger, Portland ditched Martell Webster's contract and got three promising rookies out of draft day -- most notably high-scoring forward Luke Babbitt, who is exactly the kind of floor-spacing 4 who Nate McMillan loves.
During the interminable delay before hiring Pritchard's successor (note to Blazers honchos Paul Allen and Larry Miller -- if you know several months ahead of time that you're firing the GM, it might be wise to have some kind of succession plan in place), what was left of Portland's front office managed to lure Wesley Matthews from Utah. They overpaid, sure, but they overpaid for a piece that really fits. Matthews will help them with his defense and 3-point shooting -- every team is looking for players like this -- and since I don't imagine Paul Allen will have major objections to the Blazers' being a luxury tax team, the dollars aren't going to hurt them.
Finally, the Blazers made a strong hire by bringing in Oklahoma City's Rich Cho to take over. He adds the cap expertise that the team lost with the firing of Tom Penn earlier in the spring. The Blazers lose Pritchard's scouting eye and deal-making skill, but the organization was already very strong in the former department with NBA scouting director Michael Born and college scouting director Chad Buchanan. Given what a mess this seemed like two months ago, they've ended up in fantastic shape.
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