NCAA Basketball Tournament forecasting

[Archer]

I don't understand the logic, and it hasn't really been explained, but I give the NCAA credit for at least making two of the play in games #12 seed games. Thats better than 4 #16 seed games.

Also, I don't understand how Tennessee can even be in the field at this point, much less an 8-seed. They are 5th in the SEC EAST DIVISION! They are 8-8 in the conference, 18-13 overall. They have the 7th best conference record and 8th best overall record in the SEC. Most importantly, Bruce Pearl's team will probably have to vacate all their wins this year.

RPI - 36
SOS - 3
Record vs. Top 50: 7-6
Good Wins - Road v Pitt, Neutral v Nova, Vandy x2
Bad L's - Charlotte, Charleston, Oakland

While I agree they kinda suck... I'm looking at other bubble teams and nearly all of them have terrible records v the top 50 and an inferior RPI to Tennessee.

Also Lunardi is generally not very good at seeding. He just gets the teams in and out correct usually [i'm guessing you saw he had them as an 8]

[FirstTimer]

Tennessee has a better resume than Illinois by far IMO.

I'd put Tennessee in the tourny but leave Illinois at home as of right now.

[FirstTimer]

WTF.

Lunardi has Illinois has a 9 seed?

[Woy]

Well, they arent play in games, they are Opening Round games, but I get what you are saying.

I like it. I have no problem extending the first week by two days. Tuesday and Wednsday night should be a lot of fun with the doubleheaders.

In fact, I've always felt that all four 16 seeds should be determined with the Opening Round games. It gives these schools a chance to win a game and feel like they are actually a part of thing, instead of just going out and getting thrashed, losing by 40, and being out of the tournament by halftime of game one.

They should just go to 70 and add two more opening rounders for the other two 16 seeds.

I understand what you're saying as well, but I have a different mindset.

As a possible #16 seed, I rather play the #1 seed from the beginning than play a play-in/opening round game. As a student and fan of a smaller-school, when playing someone like, for example Lafayette University, it just makes it seem that it's a meaningless non-conference, neutral site game in December. There's obviously meaning to it, but playing at Dayton against Lafayette is a lot less appealing to playing someone like Ohio State at one of the first round tourney sites.

Smaller schools, no matter how small of a chance they have against a #1 seed, experience more of the tournament's magic by playing the top school instead of playing in a play-in/opening round game. Eventually one of these #16 seeds will beat a #1 (maybe in the near future considering that the quality of basketball in the top conferences has gone down, IMO), but a lot of these teams won't get a chance to pull off an improbable upset because they were knocked out in some "play-in" game, when they already played themselves into the big dance by winning their conference tournament.

My opinion might be different than someone else's from a small school, but I feel pretty strongly about this.

tl;dr - I rather play a #1 seed, have the opportunity to pull a historic upset and more than likely lose by 40, than play in a play-in game and possibly not experience the actual tournament.

[Woy]

St. Peter's won the MAAC tournament. We held them to 30 freakin' points to start the season in a 55-30 blowout, lol.

[Sharkweather]

CofC

[Senser81]

I watched VCU battle back against ODU, but an untimely lane violation and their point guard deciding to jack up multiple airballs kind of killed them off. Too bad, because VCU looked pretty good, but I doubt they make the tournament now.

Same holds true for Saint Mary's, who lost to Gonzaga. With teams like Missouri State and George Mason looking for at-large bids, I don't think enough will go around for Saint Mary's and VCU.

[Sharkweather]

Missouri State in over Saint Mary's?

Blind resume.

#1
RPI: 46
SOS: 149
LAST 12: 8-4
VS. RPI TOP 25: 0-0
VS. RPI TOP 50: 0-1
VS. RPI TOP 100: 3-6

#2
RPI: 45
SOS: 122
LAST 12: 7-5
VS. RPI TOP 25: 1-4
VS. RPI TOP 50: 1-4
VS. RPI TOP 100: 3-5

[Senser81]

Missouri State won the Missouri Valley, which is usually the toughest mid-major conference. Saint Mary's looked tough in their game against Gonzaga, so I hope they get in, but I don't see how they would get in over outright conference winners George Mason and Missouri State.

[FirstTimer]

Missouri State won the Missouri Valley, which is usually the toughest mid-major conference. Saint Mary's looked tough in their game against Gonzaga, so I hope they get in, but I don't see how they would get in over outright conference winners George Mason and Missouri State.

The MVC was pretty down this year though. ISU Bradley and SIU were all pretty average or bad. In most other years I'd agree with you but this season the MVC was down IMO

[Archer]

The Valley's biggest problem is that they got kicked around in the bracketbuster games

Missouri St lost by DD to Valpo (4th best team in the Horizion)
Wichita lost at home to VCU (3rd best team in the CAA)
UNI lost at home to GMU (best team in the CAA)

Pretty much nobody has anything OOC or in conference (since it was so badly down) to be proud about.

[Senser81]

Oakland and Butler helped out the bubble teams by winning their conference tournaments. I don't think any other team from either the Summit or the Horizon conference will grab an at-large bid. Interesting developments in the Big East tournament. Marquette kept their NCAA hopes alive by trouncing Providence, while Villanova got upset by a pretty bad USF team. There is even talk that Villanova's loss will knock them out of the NCAA tournament. As bad as Villanova is, I don't know about that. 20 wins and a .500 Big East record still might be enough, but they are 5-10 in their last 15 games.

Marquette's situation is tricky...they play W. Virginia next, and a loss to them won't really be a bad loss. But they might have to beat WVU to get in to the NCAA's. Hard to say.

[FirstTimer]

Marquette will be an interesting team if they get in. They don't have any real stand out players, but they are solid overall team, fairly deep and when they want to can play really well on the defensive end. If they get in as an at-large they could be a really pesky, difficult, 9 or 10 seed.

[jeffx]

I still think they get 11

The Bubble teams are so weak this year that Marquette's resume still looks better then most despite not beating anybody OOC.

I keep hearing 11, but I think that's pushing it. But I wouldn't mind seeing Marquette, for the reasons FirstTimer stated.

[Senser81]

To get in the March Madness mood...here is one of the few good bball fights that I've witnessed. The 1987 Syracuse team was badass.

[ame="http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KNv_7fDRcxs&feature=related"]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KNv_7fDRcxs&feature=related[/ame]