The 10 most likely early upsets
Now that the NCAA tournament selection committee has spoken, it's our turn for a pronouncement: If you like big upsets, the kind we specialize in predicting here at GK Central, 2012 is going to be a whole lot more fun than 2011. Our model predicts a total of 3.4 upsets in the first and second rounds in this year's tournament, up from 2.2 last year.
If you're new to the blog, the definition and methodology for Giant Killers is conveniently located here. Take a look because it will help you understand and digest our early predictions.
In stark contrast to last season, nearly every mid-major and small conference is sending its best Giant-Killing prospect to the big dance. And it's not just teams with automatic bids that are attending the assassins' ball. Mid-majors earned 11 at-large bids on Sunday, up from six last season. So even though Creighton, St. Louis, St. Mary's and Southern Mississippi landed in the middle of their brackets instead of in GK contests, and Murray State and Wichita State got seeded so high that they're Giants, not Killers, there's still plenty of potential for slayage. To prime you for deeper regional breakdowns on Monday and Tuesday, here's an early look at the top 10 most likely upsets for the 2012 tournament.
The most vulnerable Giants, including Vanderbilt, Florida State and Baylor, managed to avoid collisions with the top potential Killers, such as Belmont and VCU. That means no single matchup causes our model to rave the way it did about, say, Cornell and Murray State in the first round in 2010. But it also means a slew of underdogs have a puncher's chance this time around.
Starting Monday, we will offer a full breakdown on every David and Goliath to give you plenty of time to sculpt your brackets. But for the moment, here are our top 10 picks for opening-game GK upsets.
No. 12 Long Beach State vs. No. 5 New Mexico (West)
Predicted chance of upset: 41.0 percent
No. 14 Belmont vs. No. 3 Georgetown (Midwest)
Predicted chance of upset: 29.6 percent
No. 13 Davidson vs. No. 4 Louisville (West)
Predicted chance of upset: 29.1 percent
No. 12 VCU vs. No. 5 Wichita State (South)
Predicted chance of upset: 26.9 percent
No. 13 Ohio vs. No. 4 Michigan (Midwest)
Predicted chance of upset: 22.4 percent
No. 14 St. Bonaventure vs. No. 3 Florida State (East)
Predicted chance of upset: 22.1 percent
No. 12 Harvard vs. No. 5 Vanderbilt (East)
Predicted chance of upset: 19.7 percent
No. 14 South Dakota State vs. No. 3 Baylor (South)
Predicted chance of upset: 19.0 percent
No. 14 Iona* vs. No. 3 Marquette (West)
Predicted chance of upset: 18.1 percent
* If advance past BYU in first-round game
No. 13 New Mexico State vs. No. 4 Indiana (South)
Predicted chance of upset: 17.2 percent
If you're new to the blog, the definition and methodology for Giant Killers is conveniently located here. Take a look because it will help you understand and digest our early predictions.
In stark contrast to last season, nearly every mid-major and small conference is sending its best Giant-Killing prospect to the big dance. And it's not just teams with automatic bids that are attending the assassins' ball. Mid-majors earned 11 at-large bids on Sunday, up from six last season. So even though Creighton, St. Louis, St. Mary's and Southern Mississippi landed in the middle of their brackets instead of in GK contests, and Murray State and Wichita State got seeded so high that they're Giants, not Killers, there's still plenty of potential for slayage. To prime you for deeper regional breakdowns on Monday and Tuesday, here's an early look at the top 10 most likely upsets for the 2012 tournament.
The most vulnerable Giants, including Vanderbilt, Florida State and Baylor, managed to avoid collisions with the top potential Killers, such as Belmont and VCU. That means no single matchup causes our model to rave the way it did about, say, Cornell and Murray State in the first round in 2010. But it also means a slew of underdogs have a puncher's chance this time around.
Starting Monday, we will offer a full breakdown on every David and Goliath to give you plenty of time to sculpt your brackets. But for the moment, here are our top 10 picks for opening-game GK upsets.
No. 12 Long Beach State vs. No. 5 New Mexico (West)
Predicted chance of upset: 41.0 percent
No. 14 Belmont vs. No. 3 Georgetown (Midwest)
Predicted chance of upset: 29.6 percent
No. 13 Davidson vs. No. 4 Louisville (West)
Predicted chance of upset: 29.1 percent
No. 12 VCU vs. No. 5 Wichita State (South)
Predicted chance of upset: 26.9 percent
No. 13 Ohio vs. No. 4 Michigan (Midwest)
Predicted chance of upset: 22.4 percent
No. 14 St. Bonaventure vs. No. 3 Florida State (East)
Predicted chance of upset: 22.1 percent
No. 12 Harvard vs. No. 5 Vanderbilt (East)
Predicted chance of upset: 19.7 percent
No. 14 South Dakota State vs. No. 3 Baylor (South)
Predicted chance of upset: 19.0 percent
No. 14 Iona* vs. No. 3 Marquette (West)
Predicted chance of upset: 18.1 percent
* If advance past BYU in first-round game
No. 13 New Mexico State vs. No. 4 Indiana (South)
Predicted chance of upset: 17.2 percent
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