2013 NBA Draft thread

[JimLeavy59]

Hearing he could go right outside of the lottery.

[Realist]

Kinda glad Orlando didn't get the #1, assuming they didn't trade it if they did. I would think Noel is going number 1, and I'm not that big a fan..plus bigs tend to leave . I like the thought of Ben Mclemore being the number 2 pick.

[SuperKevin]

http://probasketballtalk.nbcsports.com/2013/06/07/dario-saric-pulls-out-of-draft-agent-says/

Potential late lottery pick Dario Saric has pulled out of the draft and will return to Croatia.

[JimLeavy59]

More and more, NBA teams are turning to analytics in the quest to maximize their return on coveted draft slots, or to unearth the gem farther down the board. When I talk to front-office types around the league, the topic of rating prospects almost always comes up. There is no magic in the process, either objectively or subjectively, and there certainly isn't any particular algorithm that's going to nail every prospect.


However, teams that ignore the analytical side of the game are working at a disadvantage. I've always liked the way Chicago Cubs president Theo Epstein describes it: The scouting side is one lens and the quantitative side is the other. It's only when you put both lenses together that the picture comes into focus.


I've been rating prospects for about five years using what I call the ATH system, which I've also used for various purposes on NBA-level topics as well. This year, I've made a few enhancements to the system (outlined in the chart at the bottom of this piece). The goal is to determine how a player's non-NBA production will translate to the game's highest level.


(Each player's prospect score (PROS) is denoted in parenthesis. Any score more than 100 denotes a deserving top-10 pick. Late first-rounders and early second-rounders -- always a gray area -- rate in the 65-75 range. Players fall off the draft board at about 50.)

Top 15:


1 - Noel
2 - Zeller

From a per-possession-efficiency standpoint, Zeller ranks as the best prospect on the board. The excellent athletic markers he displayed at the combine hold up statistically, as he's got the third-best ATH rating in this class. Zeller lags in the skill area in terms of outside shooting and passing, but I'm still convinced Zeller is underrated in the prospect rankings I've seen.

3 - McLemore
4 - Len
5 - Bennett
6 - Adams
7 - Burke
8 - MCW
9 - Porter
10 - Olidapo

Scouts love Oladipo's defensive upside, but it just doesn't translate statistically. ATH rates him 70th in defensive rating, 41st in steals and 52nd in blocks, and Synergy ranks him 81st against isolations.

11 - McCollum
12 - Schroeder
13 - Karasev
14 - Withey
15 - Dieng
16. Dario Saric, Croatia (84.2)
17. Glen Rice Jr., Georgia Tech (83.1)
18. Kelly Olynyk, Gonzaga (82.7)
19. Mason Plumlee, Duke (78.8)
20. Jamaal Franklin, San Diego State (78.5)
21. Jackie Carmichael, Illinois State (76.1)
22. Tony Mitchell, North Texas (75.1)
23. Mike Muscala, Bucknell (73.4)
24. Andre Roberson, Colorado (72.9)
25. Laurence Bowers, Missouri (71.7)
26. Allen Crabbe, California (71.7)
27. Rodney Williams, Minnesota (70.7)
28. Shabazz Muhammad, UCLA (69.8)
29. D.J. Stephens, Memphis (69.5)
30. Rudy Gobert, France (69.5)

http://insider.espn.go.com/nba/draft2013/story/_/id/9375050/2013-nba-draft-nerlens-noel-cody-zeller-rank-top-projected-prospects-numbers

[JimLeavy59]

Bucks have strong interest in Kentavious Caldwell-Pope.

[SuperKevin]

Rumors swirling that Alex Len is going to be the 1st overall pick

[JimLeavy59]

His stock has really soared over the past few months.

[SuperKevin]

Really makes the Wizards pick at #3 a bit more interesting. Do they take Nerlens Noel if Orlando goes with McLemore?

[JimLeavy59]

I've heard that Orlando is high on Olidapo, and regarding the #3 pick there are rumors that the Bucks and Wizards are in talks depending on how pick #1 and #2 go.

[LiquidLarry2GhostWF]

Rumors swirling that Alex Len is going to be the 1st overall pick

Michael Olowokandi thinks this is a good move.

[SuperKevin]

Crazy that Glen Rice Jr is nearing lock status to go in the late 1st round. Was never terribly impressed by him when he was at Georgia Tech

[LiquidLarry2GhostWF]

Crazy that Glen Rice Jr is nearing lock status to go in the late 1st round. Was never terribly impressed by him when he was at Georgia Tech

Dominated the D-League.

I would like to see the Nets take him at the end of Round 1.

[Xixak]

Really makes the Wizards pick at #3 a bit more interesting. Do they take Nerlens Noel if Orlando goes with McLemore?

I can't see them passing on Noel in that situation, especially with Okafor expiring and Nene not healthy.

This also means Porter could fall a fair bit, possibly to 5th (Charlotte won't take him either with MKG at 3).

[Xixak]

I've heard that Orlando is high on Olidapo, and regarding the #3 pick there are rumors that the Bucks and Wizards are in talks depending on how pick #1 and #2 go.

If I'm Orlando I swap Afflalo to LAC for Bledsoe (this has been rumored for a while and will probably happen), then snag Oladipo with the #2. That'd be the best defensive backcourt in the league in a few seasons.

[SuperKevin]

I can't see them passing on Noel in that situation, especially with Okafor expiring and Nene not healthy.

This also means Porter could fall a fair bit, possibly to 5th (Charlotte won't take him either with MKG at 3).

Noel would be really fun to watch on the break with John Wall. Oops on top of oops