A different take on player evaluation

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  • RyanLeaf16
    #DoSomething
    • Feb 2009
    • 3211

    A different take on player evaluation

    I've been messing around for the last several weeks trying to create a measure of a players on-field performance. The basic stats that the NFL records are, IMVHO, stale. I ended up consulting with a buddy of mine in Nebraska who works in this field and we came up with a way to evaluate a players performance. We are still working on it and are breaking it down by position. We also weighted each categorey based off of position. Anyway, I thought I would share with you guys what we have so far. No haters please, I am not claiming that this is the end-all, be-all of evaluating NFL talent. Just a different perspective. I'm just going to post the top 10 for DL and WR's in the NFC as that is as far as we have gotten.

    Note that the numbers associated with a WR are much higher than that of a lineman due to the larger numbers associated with the stat categories used. The numbers corresponding to the players does not mean that player x is better than player y - it just means he performed better last season based off the factors we calculated.

    Top 10 NFC WR's for 2009 NFL season according to FAR:

    1. Austin Miles - 102.2
    2. Larry Fitzgerald - 84.85
    3. Roddy White - 84.30
    4. Greg Jennings - 82.5
    5. Marques Colston - 78.3
    6. Sidney Rice - 77.65
    7. Desean Jackson - 75.2
    8. Anquan Boldin - 75.05
    9. Donald Driver - 73.6
    10. Steve Smith (NYG) - 72.15


    Top 10 NFC DL for 2009 NFL season according to FAR:

    1. Jared Allen - 18.17
    2. Andre Carter - 14.92
    3. Trent Cole - 14.58
    4. Will Smith - 14.33
    5. Julius Peppers - 13.17
    6. Brian Orakpo - 12.42
    7. Justin Tuck - 11.92
    8. Ray Edwards - 11.67
    9. Jay Ratliff - 11.25
    10. Jonathan Babineaux - 11.00
    Maddon & Friedman: Pissing off the AL East since 2008
  • 1ke
    D.I.L.L.I.G.A.F
    • Mar 2009
    • 6641

    #2
    Im assuming this is just basic productivity in general? If so, I see no problems with the list for WR's, not a actually a problem with the DL either, just a bit shocked Andre is where he is.

    Comment

    • JeremyHight
      I wish I was Scrubs
      • Feb 2009
      • 4063

      #3
      Austin Miles >>> Miles Austin

      Comment

      • Tengo Juego
        Posts a lot
        • Jun 2009
        • 4289

        #4
        So, what is FAR? You explained what you and your buddy did, but not how you did it. I'm curious.

        Comment

        • PEYMAN18
          Suhn.
          • Jan 2009
          • 1683

          #5
          I am surprised to see no Andre Johnson for WR and Dwight Freeney on DL. Didn't Orakpo play LB for Washington last year?

          Comment

          • Gonzo
            Colts Supremicist
            • Dec 2008
            • 5325

            #6
            Originally posted by Tengo Juego
            So, what is FAR? You explained what you and your buddy did, but not how you did it. I'm curious.
            As am I.

            Comment

            • Gonzo
              Colts Supremicist
              • Dec 2008
              • 5325

              #7
              Originally posted by PEYMAN18
              I am surprised to see no Andre Johnson for WR and Dwight Freeney on DL. Didn't Orakpo play LB for Washington last year?
              NFC only, but I love Dwight Freeney so much you deserve a thanks.

              Comment

              • ThunderHorse
                Grind.
                • Nov 2008
                • 2702

                #8
                Originally posted by PEYMAN18
                I am surprised to see no Andre Johnson for WR and Dwight Freeney on DL. Didn't Orakpo play LB for Washington last year?
                He said NFC ONLY

                Comment

                • Gonzo
                  Colts Supremicist
                  • Dec 2008
                  • 5325

                  #9
                  Originally posted by ThunderHorse
                  He said NFC ONLY
                  Do not use that tone of voice to another Colts fan. This is your only warning Usahh.

                  Comment

                  • ThunderHorse
                    Grind.
                    • Nov 2008
                    • 2702

                    #10
                    Originally posted by Gonzo
                    Do not use that tone of voice to another Colts fan. This is your only warning Usahh.


                    Freeney would be better than all those guys N E Ways

                    Comment

                    • PEYMAN18
                      Suhn.
                      • Jan 2009
                      • 1683

                      #11
                      Whoops. Sorry I didnt read the header. I too would like to know how you judged this though...

                      Comment

                      • Fox1994
                        Posts too much
                        • Dec 2008
                        • 5327

                        #12
                        So give us an idea as to how you did it? lol. You don't have to give us the formula.

                         
                        Yes you do.

                        Comment

                        • j.hen
                          Self Care
                          • Oct 2008
                          • 10058

                          #13
                          So this means Roddy White was playing on Fitzgerald's level last season. Hell yeah. and Jonathan Babineaux is soooo under rated.

                          Comment

                          • RyanLeaf16
                            #DoSomething
                            • Feb 2009
                            • 3211

                            #14
                            Originally posted by JeremyHight
                            Austin Miles >>> Miles Austin
                            Thanks for the correction. Not sure why I listed it wrong. Maybe b/c I was rushing out the door when I posted? IDK though...

                            Originally posted by Tengo Juego
                            So, what is FAR? You explained what you and your buddy did, but not how you did it. I'm curious.
                            FAR stands for Field Awareness Rating.

                            Originally posted by PEYMAN18
                            I am surprised to see no Andre Johnson for WR and Dwight Freeney on DL. Didn't Orakpo play LB for Washington last year?
                            NFC only. Orakpo was 50/50 with our evals as I know he did play some on the line last year.

                            Originally posted by Fox1994
                            So give us an idea as to how you did it? lol. You don't have to give us the formula.

                             
                            Yes you do.
                            We simply looked at each position and then weighted the stat categories that are most important to that position accordingly. So each position is a little different. Some stats are not considered for certain positions (i.e. INTs for DL, etc.).
                            Maddon & Friedman: Pissing off the AL East since 2008

                            Comment

                            • hoodyallen
                              hoodrow wilson
                              • Dec 2009
                              • 2241

                              #15
                              Originally posted by J.Hen
                              So this means Roddy White was playing on Fitzgerald's level last season. Hell yeah. and Jonathan Babineaux is soooo under rated.

                              No he didn't. This guy's formula only measures productivity, the formula doesn't take into account any of the mistakes or negatives, and Roddy White has a lot of them.

                              Roddy White was statistically 65th among WR's for blocking. He was also:

                              -22nd in drops (6)

                              -75th in percentage of balls caught

                              - 3rd in offensive penalties (7)

                              His cumulative rating for all categories was 35th. Is Roddy White only the 35th best WR in football? No, he's probably a top 12 WR at this point.


                              Source: http://profootballfocus.com/by_posit...=25&numgames=1
                              Last edited by hoodyallen; 07-11-2010, 06:34 PM.

                              stereoquality.us

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