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I am giving it a chance that's why I keeep reading articles on it. Their withholding of the actual formula is frustrating. When I say it feels subjective it seems there are a lot of decisions to be made about a bunch of plays. For instance how exactly are bad throws determined? Sounds easy but what about throws where the qb puts it where his wr can get it or it goes out of bounds? When the wr doen't get it is there really a numeric value for this or is it up to Joe Nerd to decide whether or not he thought it was a good throw? The whole clutch thing - I get the theory but would like to see more info? Where do the values they assign to these plays come from? On top of this going backwards and applying it seems impossible because 1) we don't have all the plays of all the games and 2) even if we did I'd imagine they'd have to input all new info since what the average or replacement qb is capable of today is far different than in previous eras. Bottom line is I want the chef to share the recipe.
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The clutch thing is also a sticking point for me. I remember FootballOutsiders had a "clutch" definition of passes thrown in the 4th quarter while trailing (or something like that). First, it penalized QBs who did well in the first 3 quarters and thus had the lead. Second, teams will usually go prevent in the 4th quarter and/or play second-stringers just to finish up a blowout. Not surprisingly, the most clutch QB was Jon Kitna, who in reality is one of the least-clutch players I have ever seen.Comment
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That's probably my biggest contention with the clutch thing. Everything I've read implies that if it happens on 3rd down or in the 4th qtr its automatically worth more than a play on an earlier down or in an earlier qtr. Again, sounds good in theory but its hardly always the case.
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