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Another week, another talented quarterback with a first-round grade in the 2012 NFL draft is out of the mix. Landry Jones made it official Thursday afternoon that he'll be returning to Oklahoma for another season, and the ramifications are significant. Jones' announcement also might shift the decision-making process for an SEC quarterback.
Before the update, let me say I applaud the decision of Jones. He has a lot of ability, but struggled in the second half of the season, and made it clear to evaluators that there are things he can work on and skills he can refine with more experience. I fully expect that at this point next year, we'll again be talking about him as a potential high first-round pick, and hopefully with some positive momentum on his side.
That said, let's take a look at how the quarterback class shapes up. As a caveat, I'm not going to rank Arkansas junior Tyler Wilson in the rankings, but will indicate where I think he would fit if he does decide to enter the draft.
1. Andrew Luck
I'll spare you another round of superlatives. You saw again in his final college game what makes Luck so special. Against a talented team that had a month to prepare, and with a lack of major weapons in the passing game, Luck carved up Oklahoma State and completed nearly 90 percent of his passes. He has it all -- smarts, arm strength, poise, pocket awareness, an ability to throw on the move to either side, and a preternatural sense of how to move defenders with his eyes. He can call the plays, and check down when the play isn't there. He's the best quarterback prospect since John Elway. Sorry, I didn't exactly spare you.
Grade: High 1st
2. Robert Griffin III
No quarterback is riding a better wave of momentum, and I fully expect that a team could be willing to move up to as high as No. 2 in the draft to get him. Great arm strength, exceptional athleticism, improved and now elite accuracy on the deep ball, and a ton of experience make Griffin a very appealing prospect. I think he'll particularly shine when teams get to talk to this young man, because he's got the intangibles, the personality and is a proven leader.
Grade: High 1st
3. Nick Foles
He may have lost a little shine this season because of the way the Wildcats performed as a team, but Foles is a really solid developmental prospect. He's a big kid, at 6-foot-5 and 240 pounds, is accurate, moves and throws well to both his right and his left, and has solid mechanics. Questions for Foles start with decision-making, but I think he may have tried to force his throws too often as the team struggled, and the numbers tell some of that story. But you can draft Foles in the late first or early second round and develop him.
Grade: Late 1st to mid-2nd
4. Ryan Tannehill
He's a really intelligent player, with a strong arm. He displays a good grasp of the offense and has come a long way in a short time -- you're talking about a former wide receiver -- and was able to put up good numbers. Tannehill is a guy with more upside than polish, and part of that stems from the fact that I have him at just 19 starts after the bowl game. He had a really rough game against Texas, which looked worse when Griffin went out and lit up the Longhorns soon after, but all in all, I still saw this as a solid growth season. Again, he's not a player a competitive NFL team wants starting games in 2012, but there are skills to work with.
Grade: Early to late 2nd
5. Brandon Weeden
Hey, you subtract one key number, and Weeden jumps up this list. He has a big-time arm, is accurate, plays with poise and can beat you over the top. The bottom line is if you think this is a guy you want to draft and develop for a year, he might not make his first NFL start until he's 30 years old. Let's face it, that's a number nobody will overlook. It says a lot for Weeden's ability that he's in the position to be drafted at all.
Grade: Late 2nd to middle rounds
The question mark
Tyler Wilson, were he to enter the draft, would be at No. 3 on this list for me. This is a kid who just shows great toughness and the ability to be accurate while extending plays and taking hits. He worked behind a subpar offensive line this season, but is willing to look down the barrel and make throws. He slides well to his left or right, has above-average accuracy, and has a good sense of how to calibrate his throws, not overcooking underneath throws, and putting the necessary pace on the ball when he wants to push it down the field. Let's be clear that there's no guarantee at all that Wilson would land in Round 1 were he to stay in the draft. But he does have that kind of potential.
Other quarterbacks you'll see in the mix are Kirk Cousins, Ryan Lindley and BJ Coleman. And there'll be many evaluations and possible shifts to come.
Mel Kiper has been the premier name in NFL draft prospect evaluations for more than three decades. He started putting out his annual draft guides in 1978 and started contributing to ESPN as an analyst in 1984. For more from Mel, check out his annual draft publications or his home page. He can also be found on Twitter here.
Before the update, let me say I applaud the decision of Jones. He has a lot of ability, but struggled in the second half of the season, and made it clear to evaluators that there are things he can work on and skills he can refine with more experience. I fully expect that at this point next year, we'll again be talking about him as a potential high first-round pick, and hopefully with some positive momentum on his side.
That said, let's take a look at how the quarterback class shapes up. As a caveat, I'm not going to rank Arkansas junior Tyler Wilson in the rankings, but will indicate where I think he would fit if he does decide to enter the draft.
1. Andrew Luck
I'll spare you another round of superlatives. You saw again in his final college game what makes Luck so special. Against a talented team that had a month to prepare, and with a lack of major weapons in the passing game, Luck carved up Oklahoma State and completed nearly 90 percent of his passes. He has it all -- smarts, arm strength, poise, pocket awareness, an ability to throw on the move to either side, and a preternatural sense of how to move defenders with his eyes. He can call the plays, and check down when the play isn't there. He's the best quarterback prospect since John Elway. Sorry, I didn't exactly spare you.
Grade: High 1st
2. Robert Griffin III
No quarterback is riding a better wave of momentum, and I fully expect that a team could be willing to move up to as high as No. 2 in the draft to get him. Great arm strength, exceptional athleticism, improved and now elite accuracy on the deep ball, and a ton of experience make Griffin a very appealing prospect. I think he'll particularly shine when teams get to talk to this young man, because he's got the intangibles, the personality and is a proven leader.
Grade: High 1st
3. Nick Foles
He may have lost a little shine this season because of the way the Wildcats performed as a team, but Foles is a really solid developmental prospect. He's a big kid, at 6-foot-5 and 240 pounds, is accurate, moves and throws well to both his right and his left, and has solid mechanics. Questions for Foles start with decision-making, but I think he may have tried to force his throws too often as the team struggled, and the numbers tell some of that story. But you can draft Foles in the late first or early second round and develop him.
Grade: Late 1st to mid-2nd
4. Ryan Tannehill
He's a really intelligent player, with a strong arm. He displays a good grasp of the offense and has come a long way in a short time -- you're talking about a former wide receiver -- and was able to put up good numbers. Tannehill is a guy with more upside than polish, and part of that stems from the fact that I have him at just 19 starts after the bowl game. He had a really rough game against Texas, which looked worse when Griffin went out and lit up the Longhorns soon after, but all in all, I still saw this as a solid growth season. Again, he's not a player a competitive NFL team wants starting games in 2012, but there are skills to work with.
Grade: Early to late 2nd
5. Brandon Weeden
Hey, you subtract one key number, and Weeden jumps up this list. He has a big-time arm, is accurate, plays with poise and can beat you over the top. The bottom line is if you think this is a guy you want to draft and develop for a year, he might not make his first NFL start until he's 30 years old. Let's face it, that's a number nobody will overlook. It says a lot for Weeden's ability that he's in the position to be drafted at all.
Grade: Late 2nd to middle rounds
The question mark
Tyler Wilson, were he to enter the draft, would be at No. 3 on this list for me. This is a kid who just shows great toughness and the ability to be accurate while extending plays and taking hits. He worked behind a subpar offensive line this season, but is willing to look down the barrel and make throws. He slides well to his left or right, has above-average accuracy, and has a good sense of how to calibrate his throws, not overcooking underneath throws, and putting the necessary pace on the ball when he wants to push it down the field. Let's be clear that there's no guarantee at all that Wilson would land in Round 1 were he to stay in the draft. But he does have that kind of potential.
Other quarterbacks you'll see in the mix are Kirk Cousins, Ryan Lindley and BJ Coleman. And there'll be many evaluations and possible shifts to come.
Mel Kiper has been the premier name in NFL draft prospect evaluations for more than three decades. He started putting out his annual draft guides in 1978 and started contributing to ESPN as an analyst in 1984. For more from Mel, check out his annual draft publications or his home page. He can also be found on Twitter here.
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