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A couple of years ago, I wrote about quantitative methods that NFL teams and independent researchers had devised in the desperate search to find the next great coach. (I swear, the story was more exciting than that.) These folks, ranging from team execs to college professors, analyzed more than 100 hires, breaking down dozens of traits from experience to race to coaching trees. As I wrote, the vast majority of successful coaches possessed at least one of the following four characteristics:
1. They were between the ages of 41 and 49.
2. They had at least 11 years of NFL coaching experience.
3. They were assistants on teams that won at least 50 games over a five-year span.
4. They had only one previous head-coaching gig.
In researching the story, I ran every NFL assistant's résumé through the formula, and it spit out only one: Eagles offensive coordinator Marty Mornhinweg. Seriously. Not that it's helped his cause: He's still waiting for a second shot at being a head coach. Still, although data can't predict the human intangibles that every successful coach possesses, I believe it can serve as a winnower. So let's run the seven most recent head-coaching hires through the formula and see they stack up.
Greg Schiano, Bucs
Between age 41-49: Yes, he's 45.
11 years of NFL experience: No.
50 wins in five years (in the NFL): No.
Previous NFL head-coaching experience: None.
Forecast: Schiano meets the fewest criteria of all the hires, and he actually warrants another red herring: The New York University study that I cited in the story found that owners usually swing and miss when they hire college head coaches. The 77 college-to-NFL hires whom NYU tracked won only 47 percent of their regular-season games and a lousy 43.6 percent of their postseason contests. (The data was culled before Jim Harbaugh was hired by the 49ers, so those numbers are probably now slightly higher.) Why do college coaches tend to struggle? Two reasons: the vast differences in the college and pro game, and the vast differences in the job of head coach. NFL coaches lead by technical knowledge and a bit of human touch; college coaches usually have enough schematic expertise, but they also need to rely heavily on their personalities. Like politicians, they have to appeal to dozens of constituencies (recruits, boosters, parents et al). Harbaugh gained the respect of the 49ers because he had the schematic answers to fix their problems, not because he's warm and fuzzy. Schiano will have to prove that he can do the same.
Jeff Fisher, Rams
Between age 41-49: No, he's 53.
11 years of NFL experience: Yes.
50 wins in five years: Yes. Fisher won 56 games from 1999 to 2003.
Previous NFL head-coaching experience: Yes.
Forecast: For data purposes alone, Fisher is a tad old. But he checks every other box. Despite only six winning seasons in 17 years as a head coach, Fisher is highly respected by his peers and is considered one of the league's best clock managers. He also has a franchise quarterback in Sam Bradford, which he lacked in Tennessee. Odds are that he should do well with a fresh start.
Romeo Crennel, Chiefs
Between age 41-49: No, he's 64.
11 years of NFL experience: Yes.
50 wins in five years: Twice, as an assistant with the Giants and Patriots.
Previous NFL head-coaching experience: Yes.
Forecast: Like Fisher, Crennel is a so-called retread, which means that he's held a previous NFL head-coaching job. It's an undervalued trait. According to NYU, hires with previous NFL head-coaching experience win 57 percent of their regular-season games and 52 percent of their playoff games in their second jobs. It makes sense: Most coaches cannot be choosy their first time around and often walk into awful situations. (See: Cleveland.) But remember, they have to be good retreads. One of the most important factors in retreads was whether factors outside of their control reasonably contributed to their losing. NYU analyzed the win-loss records for each coach's team three years before his hiring and three years after his departure. It's safe to say that Crennel was not the only reason that the Cleveland Browns have lost; the Browns have won 14 games since he was fired. He was the best candidate the Chiefs could have hoped for.
Joe Philbin, Dolphins
Between age 41-49: No, barely. He's 50.
11 years of NFL experience: No.
50 wins in five years: Yes, 55 past three years.
Previous NFL head-coaching experience: No.
Dennis Allen, Raiders
Between age 41-49: No. He's 39
11 years of NFL experience: No.
50 wins in five years: Yes: 49 regular-season games, plus the Saints' Super Bowl run.
Previous NFL head-coaching experience: No.
Chuck Pagano, Colts
Between age 41-49: No. He's 51.
11 years of NFL experience: No.
50 wins in five years: No.
Previous NFL head-coaching experience: No.
Forecast: I lumped these coaches together because they've all been successful coordinators. Many owners -- and fans -- assume that smart play calling on one team will translate into wins for another. It doesn't. Good coordinators don't always make good coaches. That was one of the main takeaways from a study by Eagles president Joe Banner in 1999. He broke down the résumés of 16 "elite" coaches and discovered that there was no correlation between good coordinators and great head coaches. (Bill Parcells, for one.) That "liberated" him, as he told me, to look outside the box. That's why he picked Andy Reid, who was the Packers' quarterbacks coach at the time.
The NYU study delved deeper into this topic and found that it's a statistical wash: The regular-season winning percentage of coaches who have been coordinators (49.1 percent) is slightly lower than non-coordinators (49.3 percent).
The takeaway: Fans shouldn't assume that just because Philbin directed the Packers' high-flying offense, or because Allen turned around the Orange Crush, or because Pagano succeeded with Baltimore's defense that they'll automatically make the leap to great head coach. Players make systems work, and the leadership that great head coaches possess goes beyond play calling.
Mike Mularkey, Jaguars
Between age 41-49: No. He's 50.
11 years of NFL experience: Yes.
50 wins in five years: No.
Previous NFL head-coaching experience: Yes.
Forecast: He's one of the best hires, statistically. Yeah, he hasn't been on a team that won 50 games over five years, but he's been close, an assistant with the Steelers and with the Falcons. His age is good enough; he's a retread on whom losing in Buffalo cannot be solely blamed. Plus -- and this shouldn't be overlooked -- he knows how to coach quarterbacks. Which, no matter what the studies say, might be the most important trait in today's NFL.
1. They were between the ages of 41 and 49.
2. They had at least 11 years of NFL coaching experience.
3. They were assistants on teams that won at least 50 games over a five-year span.
4. They had only one previous head-coaching gig.
In researching the story, I ran every NFL assistant's résumé through the formula, and it spit out only one: Eagles offensive coordinator Marty Mornhinweg. Seriously. Not that it's helped his cause: He's still waiting for a second shot at being a head coach. Still, although data can't predict the human intangibles that every successful coach possesses, I believe it can serve as a winnower. So let's run the seven most recent head-coaching hires through the formula and see they stack up.
Greg Schiano, Bucs
Between age 41-49: Yes, he's 45.
11 years of NFL experience: No.
50 wins in five years (in the NFL): No.
Previous NFL head-coaching experience: None.
Forecast: Schiano meets the fewest criteria of all the hires, and he actually warrants another red herring: The New York University study that I cited in the story found that owners usually swing and miss when they hire college head coaches. The 77 college-to-NFL hires whom NYU tracked won only 47 percent of their regular-season games and a lousy 43.6 percent of their postseason contests. (The data was culled before Jim Harbaugh was hired by the 49ers, so those numbers are probably now slightly higher.) Why do college coaches tend to struggle? Two reasons: the vast differences in the college and pro game, and the vast differences in the job of head coach. NFL coaches lead by technical knowledge and a bit of human touch; college coaches usually have enough schematic expertise, but they also need to rely heavily on their personalities. Like politicians, they have to appeal to dozens of constituencies (recruits, boosters, parents et al). Harbaugh gained the respect of the 49ers because he had the schematic answers to fix their problems, not because he's warm and fuzzy. Schiano will have to prove that he can do the same.
Jeff Fisher, Rams
Between age 41-49: No, he's 53.
11 years of NFL experience: Yes.
50 wins in five years: Yes. Fisher won 56 games from 1999 to 2003.
Previous NFL head-coaching experience: Yes.
Forecast: For data purposes alone, Fisher is a tad old. But he checks every other box. Despite only six winning seasons in 17 years as a head coach, Fisher is highly respected by his peers and is considered one of the league's best clock managers. He also has a franchise quarterback in Sam Bradford, which he lacked in Tennessee. Odds are that he should do well with a fresh start.
Romeo Crennel, Chiefs
Between age 41-49: No, he's 64.
11 years of NFL experience: Yes.
50 wins in five years: Twice, as an assistant with the Giants and Patriots.
Previous NFL head-coaching experience: Yes.
Forecast: Like Fisher, Crennel is a so-called retread, which means that he's held a previous NFL head-coaching job. It's an undervalued trait. According to NYU, hires with previous NFL head-coaching experience win 57 percent of their regular-season games and 52 percent of their playoff games in their second jobs. It makes sense: Most coaches cannot be choosy their first time around and often walk into awful situations. (See: Cleveland.) But remember, they have to be good retreads. One of the most important factors in retreads was whether factors outside of their control reasonably contributed to their losing. NYU analyzed the win-loss records for each coach's team three years before his hiring and three years after his departure. It's safe to say that Crennel was not the only reason that the Cleveland Browns have lost; the Browns have won 14 games since he was fired. He was the best candidate the Chiefs could have hoped for.
Joe Philbin, Dolphins
Between age 41-49: No, barely. He's 50.
11 years of NFL experience: No.
50 wins in five years: Yes, 55 past three years.
Previous NFL head-coaching experience: No.
Dennis Allen, Raiders
Between age 41-49: No. He's 39
11 years of NFL experience: No.
50 wins in five years: Yes: 49 regular-season games, plus the Saints' Super Bowl run.
Previous NFL head-coaching experience: No.
Chuck Pagano, Colts
Between age 41-49: No. He's 51.
11 years of NFL experience: No.
50 wins in five years: No.
Previous NFL head-coaching experience: No.
Forecast: I lumped these coaches together because they've all been successful coordinators. Many owners -- and fans -- assume that smart play calling on one team will translate into wins for another. It doesn't. Good coordinators don't always make good coaches. That was one of the main takeaways from a study by Eagles president Joe Banner in 1999. He broke down the résumés of 16 "elite" coaches and discovered that there was no correlation between good coordinators and great head coaches. (Bill Parcells, for one.) That "liberated" him, as he told me, to look outside the box. That's why he picked Andy Reid, who was the Packers' quarterbacks coach at the time.
The NYU study delved deeper into this topic and found that it's a statistical wash: The regular-season winning percentage of coaches who have been coordinators (49.1 percent) is slightly lower than non-coordinators (49.3 percent).
The takeaway: Fans shouldn't assume that just because Philbin directed the Packers' high-flying offense, or because Allen turned around the Orange Crush, or because Pagano succeeded with Baltimore's defense that they'll automatically make the leap to great head coach. Players make systems work, and the leadership that great head coaches possess goes beyond play calling.
Mike Mularkey, Jaguars
Between age 41-49: No. He's 50.
11 years of NFL experience: Yes.
50 wins in five years: No.
Previous NFL head-coaching experience: Yes.
Forecast: He's one of the best hires, statistically. Yeah, he hasn't been on a team that won 50 games over five years, but he's been close, an assistant with the Steelers and with the Falcons. His age is good enough; he's a retread on whom losing in Buffalo cannot be solely blamed. Plus -- and this shouldn't be overlooked -- he knows how to coach quarterbacks. Which, no matter what the studies say, might be the most important trait in today's NFL.
Interesting- the best hire, according to the writers stats, is Mike Mularkey, a hire panned throughout the league when it happened. Just like the stats say the "perfect" hire would be Mornhinweg. :joeybats:
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