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We've been lining up draft picks and discussing stocks for weeks, but I haven't yet compared players in terms of how I feel about them versus where I assume they'll go on draft day. In simple terms, these are guys I feel are being a little overrated or underrated and some sleepers who need a little more attention.
As a word of warning: On the "overrated" guys, this is based on my current information on where they'll likely be drafted. If a guy I don't see as a top-10 pick ends up at No. 25 overall, then he's not overrated after all. Keep that in mind before you jump in the comments and lose your mind because a guy you like has been slighted.
Underrated
Brandon Weeden, QB, Oklahoma State
It might feel odd to call a guy who is 28 and likely to go in Round 2 underrated. But evaluators agree that if Weeden were younger he'd be far higher. So what's my case? I think Weeden projects as a start-early QB who can help a franchise for 7-8 years, easy. And who in this league has a nine-year plan?
Derek Wolfe, DT, Cincinnati
I love the versatility he can bring. I projected Wolfe as a surprise first-round pick by the Patriots because a scheme-versatile team can use a guy like him, who can be a one-gap guy in a 3-4 or easily flip to a 4-3 DT, up front. I've seen him on some boards as low as the third round. He should go higher.
Lavonte David, LB, Nebraska
He could well land in Round 1, but if he hadn't played most of his time at Nebraska as a linebacker under 220 pounds, he'd be a lock for the top half based on his tape. Now over 230 pounds, teams feel better about his ability to hold up. Simply makes plays all over the field.
LaMichael James, RB, Oregon
He got the "track speed" label early, and it pretty much stuck. But given that no NFL RB is going to average 25 carries -- every situation is a split-carry setup -- we can't say James has diminished value because he's a hair under 200 pounds and thus doesn't profile as a bell cow. He has big-time explosiveness, is actually pretty strong between the tackles and can be a threat catching balls out of the backfield. Not a first-rounder, but early-second round makes sense.
T.Y. Hilton, WR, Florida International
Super-productive, with big-play ability and a great competitive streak, I've seen him listed as a late-round pick by some, but I see him as a guy who wouldn't be bad at all in the third round. Not big at about 5-foot-10, 185 pounds, but could be productive early.
Overrated
Ryan Tannehill, QB, Texas A&M
I love Tannehill's upside, and I think he has a great shot to be a good starter, but the market on him has gotten a little out of hand in some respects. Remember, if Matt Barkley, Landry Jones and perhaps Tyler Wilson were in this draft, we're talking about a likelier bet for late-first or second round for Tannehill. Again, he can be a good one, but a lot of it is projecting, because while his physical abilities are so impressive there is much work to be done.
Mike Adams, OT, Ohio State
A very good pass-protector, I think Adams gets a little overrated when we start talking about him as a solid top-20 pick. He could land there, but consistency and intangibles are a legit question mark, and he'll need to work his way in on the right side.
Quinton Coples, DE, North Carolina
A very good player, but he doesn't fit the profile that would have him as the best 4-3 defensive end in most years. Coples belongs in the middle of the first round and becomes a little overrated for me when I see him pegged as a safe top-10 pick.
Keenan Robinson, OLB, Texas
Robinson belongs closer to the middle rounds than as high as the second, where I've seen him for some teams. A good outside backer who can hold up against the run, he doesn't take great angles. Robinson can develop but still needs some work.
George Iloka, S, Boise State
A good safety but not the playmaker some see him as. Ball skills are lacking, and he misses a lot of tackles. Will make his mark early on as a cover guy, but this isn't a guy who should go before Round 3 on my board.
Sleepers
Brian Quick, WR, Appalachian State
If he was one of the first picks of Round 2, I wouldn't consider it a reach. Quick was dominant at his level, and while his 4.53 40-yard dash time might not sound amazing, this is a 6-4, 220-pound WR.
Trumaine Johnson, CB, Montana
A big corner at near 6-2 and over 200 pounds, he can take on big receivers and has the experience to help early. A good value in the third round, but could go earlier.
Akiem Hicks, DT, Regina
Don't let the small-school-sleeper profile fool you. This is an LSU kid who ended up elsewhere. Seriously quick given his near 320-pound frame. He would've been good in the SEC and could land in the middle rounds. Could be a steal.
Justin Bethel, S, Presbyterian
Super-productive with great ball skills, and he can be had in the third. He can immediately come in and, if not start, make big plays on special teams as he develops into a good starter.
Josh Norman, CB, Coastal Carolina
Needs to work on pure cover skills but can make some big plays picking off passes, because he plays corner like a wideout sometimes. Good size at 6-foot-plus; he can land in the third round and help early.
As a word of warning: On the "overrated" guys, this is based on my current information on where they'll likely be drafted. If a guy I don't see as a top-10 pick ends up at No. 25 overall, then he's not overrated after all. Keep that in mind before you jump in the comments and lose your mind because a guy you like has been slighted.
Underrated
Brandon Weeden, QB, Oklahoma State
It might feel odd to call a guy who is 28 and likely to go in Round 2 underrated. But evaluators agree that if Weeden were younger he'd be far higher. So what's my case? I think Weeden projects as a start-early QB who can help a franchise for 7-8 years, easy. And who in this league has a nine-year plan?
Derek Wolfe, DT, Cincinnati
I love the versatility he can bring. I projected Wolfe as a surprise first-round pick by the Patriots because a scheme-versatile team can use a guy like him, who can be a one-gap guy in a 3-4 or easily flip to a 4-3 DT, up front. I've seen him on some boards as low as the third round. He should go higher.
Lavonte David, LB, Nebraska
He could well land in Round 1, but if he hadn't played most of his time at Nebraska as a linebacker under 220 pounds, he'd be a lock for the top half based on his tape. Now over 230 pounds, teams feel better about his ability to hold up. Simply makes plays all over the field.
LaMichael James, RB, Oregon
He got the "track speed" label early, and it pretty much stuck. But given that no NFL RB is going to average 25 carries -- every situation is a split-carry setup -- we can't say James has diminished value because he's a hair under 200 pounds and thus doesn't profile as a bell cow. He has big-time explosiveness, is actually pretty strong between the tackles and can be a threat catching balls out of the backfield. Not a first-rounder, but early-second round makes sense.
T.Y. Hilton, WR, Florida International
Super-productive, with big-play ability and a great competitive streak, I've seen him listed as a late-round pick by some, but I see him as a guy who wouldn't be bad at all in the third round. Not big at about 5-foot-10, 185 pounds, but could be productive early.
Overrated
Ryan Tannehill, QB, Texas A&M
I love Tannehill's upside, and I think he has a great shot to be a good starter, but the market on him has gotten a little out of hand in some respects. Remember, if Matt Barkley, Landry Jones and perhaps Tyler Wilson were in this draft, we're talking about a likelier bet for late-first or second round for Tannehill. Again, he can be a good one, but a lot of it is projecting, because while his physical abilities are so impressive there is much work to be done.
Mike Adams, OT, Ohio State
A very good pass-protector, I think Adams gets a little overrated when we start talking about him as a solid top-20 pick. He could land there, but consistency and intangibles are a legit question mark, and he'll need to work his way in on the right side.
Quinton Coples, DE, North Carolina
A very good player, but he doesn't fit the profile that would have him as the best 4-3 defensive end in most years. Coples belongs in the middle of the first round and becomes a little overrated for me when I see him pegged as a safe top-10 pick.
Keenan Robinson, OLB, Texas
Robinson belongs closer to the middle rounds than as high as the second, where I've seen him for some teams. A good outside backer who can hold up against the run, he doesn't take great angles. Robinson can develop but still needs some work.
George Iloka, S, Boise State
A good safety but not the playmaker some see him as. Ball skills are lacking, and he misses a lot of tackles. Will make his mark early on as a cover guy, but this isn't a guy who should go before Round 3 on my board.
Sleepers
Brian Quick, WR, Appalachian State
If he was one of the first picks of Round 2, I wouldn't consider it a reach. Quick was dominant at his level, and while his 4.53 40-yard dash time might not sound amazing, this is a 6-4, 220-pound WR.
Trumaine Johnson, CB, Montana
A big corner at near 6-2 and over 200 pounds, he can take on big receivers and has the experience to help early. A good value in the third round, but could go earlier.
Akiem Hicks, DT, Regina
Don't let the small-school-sleeper profile fool you. This is an LSU kid who ended up elsewhere. Seriously quick given his near 320-pound frame. He would've been good in the SEC and could land in the middle rounds. Could be a steal.
Justin Bethel, S, Presbyterian
Super-productive with great ball skills, and he can be had in the third. He can immediately come in and, if not start, make big plays on special teams as he develops into a good starter.
Josh Norman, CB, Coastal Carolina
Needs to work on pure cover skills but can make some big plays picking off passes, because he plays corner like a wideout sometimes. Good size at 6-foot-plus; he can land in the third round and help early.
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