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Danny O'Brien is no Russell Wilson.
The newest upperclassman quarterback to transfer to Wisconsin won't push the Badgers to the Rose Bowl. Wilson led the nation in passing efficiency; more important, he was the kind of leader who arrived on campus in August and immediately got the locker room behind him. O'Brien showed neither those athletic nor people skills at Maryland.
Derek Dooley will be fired before the end of the season.
I hope I'm wrong. Dooley is a good, ethical coach. But the signs are there -- a traditional power (Tennessee) stuck in mediocrity with restless fans and a new athletic director (Dave Hart). Dooley took over a program in turmoil two seasons ago after Lane Kiffin's 12-month misrule. Injuries last season exposed a lack of depth. Executing a one-season turnaround in the tough SEC is like pulling to an inside straight.
Ohio State will win nine games. North Carolina State will win 10.
Don't forget -- the Buckeyes won't play a 13th game in 2012. But a slightly-less intense Urban Meyer will stoke a young team to match his level of fire. Ohio State plays at Michigan State, Penn State and Wisconsin and will win at least one of those games. Cal, the toughest nonconference opponent, comes to the 'Shoe. The Wolfpack have a senior quarterback, one of the most experienced offensive lines in the nation and the best defensive back in the game in David Amerson.
Florida State is back
The Seminoles went 9-4 last season despite a rash of injuries. They are healthy now, have two very good quarterbacks and two of their most talented athletes -- wide receiver Kelvin Benjamin and tailback James Wilder Jr. -- are second-year players. This team will only get better.
Joe Southwick will play better than Nick Florence or Brett Nottingham or Josh Nunes.
Southwick, Boise State's junior quarterback, can do more of what Kellen Moore did well than Florence, the Baylor senior, can replicate the derring-do of Heisman winner Robert Griffin III. Florence has an edge in experience, going 2-6 as a freshman starter in 2009 after Griffin tore his ACL. Nottingham and Nunes are battling to replace Andrew Luck as Stanford quarterback. Neither has done more than mop up.
Oklahoma State will return to reality.
Mike Gundy has matured into a formidable coach for his alma mater. But the Cowboys lose the best receiver in the nation (Justin Blackmon) and the coolheaded quarterback, 28-year-old Brandon Weeden, who found him downfield. The step down from 12-1 and a No. 3 finish is inevitable. How far down depends on how a young team handles its inherited success.
Florida State and Clemson will move to the Big 12.
Once upon a time, tradition, geography and commitment counted for something. But the last two years have proved that money makes the decisions. There's one other issue at play -- Florida State and Clemson are football-first athletic departments. The ACC loves its hoops. The next question -- does the ACC look to raid the Big East? Of course it does.
Heisman finalists: Matt Barkley, Landry Jones, Montee Ball, Robert Woods, Marcus Lattimore
Barkley has the talent and the name recognition to get to New York. Woods will join him, because we saw this spring how Barkley struggled without him. Jones, as the senior quarterback in a point-happy offense, will have the numbers. Ball and Lattimore will be the two best running backs in offenses that will get them the carries.
Heisman winner: Ball
Barkley and Woods will be such an item for the Trojans that voters won't shift toward one or the other. Lattimore, a South Carolina junior tailback, may struggle early as he recovers from an ACL tear. Ball will be the focus of a running attack that is perennially potent and has a question mark at quarterback. As a 2011 finalist, Ball also has name recognition.
National champ: Oregon over LSU
Both teams return a lot of defensive talent from their top-five teams of 2011. Tailbacks Kenjon Barner and De'Anthony Thomas will lead the Ducks' attack. LSU's offense can be only better than last season, and Alabama comes to Baton Rouge this time. Oregon must play at USC, yes, but in the rematch in the Pac-12 championship game, the Trojans' lack of numbers will catch up to them.
The newest upperclassman quarterback to transfer to Wisconsin won't push the Badgers to the Rose Bowl. Wilson led the nation in passing efficiency; more important, he was the kind of leader who arrived on campus in August and immediately got the locker room behind him. O'Brien showed neither those athletic nor people skills at Maryland.
Derek Dooley will be fired before the end of the season.
I hope I'm wrong. Dooley is a good, ethical coach. But the signs are there -- a traditional power (Tennessee) stuck in mediocrity with restless fans and a new athletic director (Dave Hart). Dooley took over a program in turmoil two seasons ago after Lane Kiffin's 12-month misrule. Injuries last season exposed a lack of depth. Executing a one-season turnaround in the tough SEC is like pulling to an inside straight.
Ohio State will win nine games. North Carolina State will win 10.
Don't forget -- the Buckeyes won't play a 13th game in 2012. But a slightly-less intense Urban Meyer will stoke a young team to match his level of fire. Ohio State plays at Michigan State, Penn State and Wisconsin and will win at least one of those games. Cal, the toughest nonconference opponent, comes to the 'Shoe. The Wolfpack have a senior quarterback, one of the most experienced offensive lines in the nation and the best defensive back in the game in David Amerson.
Florida State is back
The Seminoles went 9-4 last season despite a rash of injuries. They are healthy now, have two very good quarterbacks and two of their most talented athletes -- wide receiver Kelvin Benjamin and tailback James Wilder Jr. -- are second-year players. This team will only get better.
Joe Southwick will play better than Nick Florence or Brett Nottingham or Josh Nunes.
Southwick, Boise State's junior quarterback, can do more of what Kellen Moore did well than Florence, the Baylor senior, can replicate the derring-do of Heisman winner Robert Griffin III. Florence has an edge in experience, going 2-6 as a freshman starter in 2009 after Griffin tore his ACL. Nottingham and Nunes are battling to replace Andrew Luck as Stanford quarterback. Neither has done more than mop up.
Oklahoma State will return to reality.
Mike Gundy has matured into a formidable coach for his alma mater. But the Cowboys lose the best receiver in the nation (Justin Blackmon) and the coolheaded quarterback, 28-year-old Brandon Weeden, who found him downfield. The step down from 12-1 and a No. 3 finish is inevitable. How far down depends on how a young team handles its inherited success.
Florida State and Clemson will move to the Big 12.
Once upon a time, tradition, geography and commitment counted for something. But the last two years have proved that money makes the decisions. There's one other issue at play -- Florida State and Clemson are football-first athletic departments. The ACC loves its hoops. The next question -- does the ACC look to raid the Big East? Of course it does.
Heisman finalists: Matt Barkley, Landry Jones, Montee Ball, Robert Woods, Marcus Lattimore
Barkley has the talent and the name recognition to get to New York. Woods will join him, because we saw this spring how Barkley struggled without him. Jones, as the senior quarterback in a point-happy offense, will have the numbers. Ball and Lattimore will be the two best running backs in offenses that will get them the carries.
Heisman winner: Ball
Barkley and Woods will be such an item for the Trojans that voters won't shift toward one or the other. Lattimore, a South Carolina junior tailback, may struggle early as he recovers from an ACL tear. Ball will be the focus of a running attack that is perennially potent and has a question mark at quarterback. As a 2011 finalist, Ball also has name recognition.
National champ: Oregon over LSU
Both teams return a lot of defensive talent from their top-five teams of 2011. Tailbacks Kenjon Barner and De'Anthony Thomas will lead the Ducks' attack. LSU's offense can be only better than last season, and Alabama comes to Baton Rouge this time. Oregon must play at USC, yes, but in the rematch in the Pac-12 championship game, the Trojans' lack of numbers will catch up to them.
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