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Here's a great article by mbuser from his site www.busersports.com breaking down the upcoming free agent class.
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Here’s a breakdown of potential notable free agents for the coming off-season. It’s early, but I’ve also tried to nail down some of the possible outcomes for the names with some level of fantasy relevance. But before we get to the players, let’s break down team salary situations versus the cap, which we can safely assume will be just over $60 million next season. Here are team totals based on HoopsHype salary information - keep in mind that I haven’t triple-checked their info, so I can’t speak to the complete validity of all these numbers. Team commitments to players for the 2009/10 season are listed, with player options assumed to be exercised and team options assumed to be declined.
Under the cap: Detroit (33.1), Memphis (34.2), Atlanta (40.9), Oklahoma City (41.8), Toronto (45.8), New Jersey (50.4), Portland (50.6), Minnesota (50.8), Sacramento (51.9), Charlotte (56.6), LA Clippers (56.7), Philadelphia (57.2), Indiana (57.8), and Golden State (59.3)
Over the cap: New Orleans (76.5), Washington (75.9), LA Lakers (74.1), Boston (72.4), Cleveland (71.9), Utah (71.2), Orlando (70.6), New York (69.9), Miami (69.6), Dallas (68.8), San Antonio (66.0), Houston (65.0), Milwaukee (64.7), Denver (63.2), Chicago (63.0), and Phoenix (62.3)
Legend: ETO = early termination option, PO = player option, TO = team option, R = restricted free agent, UR = unrestricted free agent
Chris Andersen• Chris Andersen (UR) - this guy loves playing in Denver and the feeling is mutual. He’ll have some suitors, but give the Nuggets the edge - he’s a good candidate for their mid-level exception.
• Trevor Ariza (UR) - Ariza is only 23 and should be one of the more sought-after players on the market, and the Lakers are already well over the cap for next season. I can see Toronto, New Jersey, and Minnesota being very interested.
• Ron Artest (UR) - things have worked out pretty well for Artest in Houston, particularly with Tracy McGrady on the shelf. But, the Rockets have no cap room and won’t be able to match a substantive offer from another team. Two questions: will someone else take a chance on Artest, and how much do the Rockets wish T-Mac’s $20 million salary (plus) was coming off the books this off-season as opposed to next?
• Mike Bibby (UR) - Bibby had an up-and-down season statistically but provided needed leadership for the young Hawks and played a big part in their success while Acie Law, the team’s “PG of the futureâ€, played 300 fewer minutes this season than he did as a rookie. Expect the Hawks to be very interested in retaining his services and for the feeling to be mutual.
• Carlos Boozer (PO) - Boozer has been saying for some time now that he plans to opt out of the final year of his contract ($12.7M) because he’ll be “due for a raise†even if he re-signs with the Jazz. Of course, playing fewer than 40 games for the second time in four years isn’t likely to help his market value. This one could go either way: he’s been known to go back on his word before (doh!), but he’s proven himself as a consistent double-double when he’s healthy, something that any team covets. Utah is likely to want to shed his salary and pay Paul Millsap less for comparable production. A sign-and-trade might be a best-case scenario for all parties involved; regardless, Boozer manning the post for the Pistons makes plenty of sense.
• Kobe Bryant (ETO) - it’s likely that Kobe returns to the Lakers next season.
• Josh Childress (R) - Childress can opt out of the remaining two years of his deal with Olympiacos and, if he were to do so, the Hawks would own his rights as a restricted free agent.
Jamal Crawford• Jamal Crawford (ETO) - by now, you know that Don Nelson told Crawford well before the season ended that he’s not in the team’s long-term plans and that he should opt out or prepare to be traded. I see Crawford pursuing that second option, given the current economic climate, as opposed to opting out of $20M over the next two seasons to find out what the market will pay him. I don’t see a huge demand elsewhere for his services at that price - nor do I see him wanting to do Nellie any favors - so this should get even more interesting/ugly.
• Marquis Daniels (TO) - this one could go either way. He’s useful to the team, especially with Mike Dunleavy being a huge question mark for most of 2009/10, but he’s not exactly cheap ($7.4), Brandon Rush will be the starter, and re-signing Jarrett Jack will be a much higher priority. Daniels will land on his feet elsewhere (albeit with a paycut) if the Pacers decline his option.
• Raymond Felton (R) - Felton surprised a number of people - including Larry Brown - with strong play and held off D.J. Augustin all year. Augustin certainly showed that he can play and I do expect the Bobcats to end up with Allen Iverson, however, so it’s possible we see Felton involved in a sign-and-trade. There aren’t a lot of young point guards on the market, so there should be a number of teams interested.
• Ben Gordon (UR) - the Bulls are already over the cap, so re-signing Gordon isn’t a no-brainer. He’s helped his stock with a gutty performance against the Celtics, as much as a proven 20-point scorer’s stock needs help. It’s likely that the Bulls try to get him back in the fold and concentrate on moving their major expiring contracts (Brad Miller $12.3M, Tim Thomas $6.5M) to ease their cap situation.
• Al Harrington (PO) - there’s no plausible scenario where Harrington makes more than $10 million elsewhere next season (or beyond), so he’s not going anywhere.
• Zydrunas Ilgauskas (ETO) - Big Z is due $11.5 million next season and will be in Cleveland until he retires.
Allen Iverson• Allen Iverson (UR) - this is my stock statement regarding AI: the only coach I see him comfortable playing for is Larry Brown, and Brown is the only coach that I can see being willing to bring him aboard. It just seems inevitable.
• Jarrett Jack (R) - I don’t think any team will value Jack as much as the Pacers, so they’ll do what it takes to keep him on their roster.
• David Lee (R) - there’s almost no way to tell which way the Knicks are going to go here. As of now, they have just four contracts on the books for 2010/11 (two player options, two team options) and it’s no secret that they want to keep as much cap space as possible open for next off-season. David Lee is just the kind of player that they’d want to surround a potential big-time free agent (or two) with, but they may see giving him close to an eight-figure salary as too risky to their grand ambitions. From a fantasy perspective, Lee would be solid as a starter just about anywhere - clearly, playing in the D’Antoni system is ideal.
• Shawn Marion (UR) - The shine is off of Marion’s star, both in fantasy and real life. He’ll be 31 this off-season and much of his previous success has to be directly tied to the friendly Suns system in which he spend his prime seasons. He’s still a solid and versatile player, but teams aren’t going to over-extend themselves to bring him aboard. Marion has said he wants to play for a winner, but to do that he’ll have to take a massive pay cut. Extenuating circumstances for both parties could mean that he re-ups with the Raptors.
• Andre Miller (UR) - The 33-year-old Miller has been a steadying influence for the 76ers, continuing a career-long trend. I could see a team like Minnesota looking for help at the helm of their young roster, but there aren’t a lot of plausible scenarios that involve Miller not staying on in Philly. Louis Williams can score the ball, but is anyone ready to call him a starting point guard?
Paul Millsap• Paul Millsap (R) - Millsap’s fate could largely depend on Carlos Boozer and Mehmet Okur, who are looking at player options totaling $22 million between the two of them. If neither players opt out, the Jazz may not be able to match the best of what figures to be a number of offers to make Millsap a starting power forward. Count on the Pistons (among others) closely monitoring the developments surrounding all three of the Jazz’s big men.
• Jamario Moon (R) - Moon has said that Miami fits him “perfectly†and that his priority is to re-sign with the team.
• Jermaine O’Neal (PO) - He’s not going to opt out of a final year that will pay him $23 million, so expect O’Neal to make his run at a new contract next season with the Heat.
• Lamar Odom (UR) - the level of postseason success that the Lakers are able to achieve this season could determine Odom’s fate. If the team does not win the championship, they may push their payroll into the stratosphere by using the Larry Bird exception to get Odom back in the fold for another run. If they do end up as the last team standing, all involved parties will be much more comfortable parting ways.
• Mehmet Okur (ETO) - regardless of who is playing power forward for the Jazz next season, there’s a pretty good chance that they want Okur as his frontcourt mate, and the feeling is mutual.
• Anthony Parker (UR) - Parker has already been declared a reserve if he were to return to the team, so expect the versatile veteran to explore any and all of his options.
• Nate Robinson (R) - much of what was said about David Lee can be said about Robinson. The Knicks are banking on a huge off-season a year from now, but risk lots of negative PR if they allow Robinson to walk, particularly if he doesn’t get big-time offers from any other teams. Nate’s fantasy prospects take a fairly substantial hit if he does end up somewhere other than New York.
Ramon Sessions• Ramon Sessions (R) - Even Charlie Villanueva thinks re-signing Sessions should be the team’s priority. Crazier things have happened, though, and the 23-year-old Sessions should get serious offers from a number of teams. What is certain is that both Sessions and Charlie V don’t fit in the Bucks’ plans financially without a trade that involves shedding some other salary (like Richard Jefferson, who probably isn’t going to generate much interest).
• Hedo Turkoglu (ETO) - although he regressed a bit this season, Hedo could command a bit more than the $7.3 million he’s due next season on the open market. He’s said he’ll opt out if only because it makes sense for his family to get more guaranteed money, and it’s hard to fault him for that. It’s likely that the Magic want to keep their core intact for at least another season, but Rashard Lewis’ contract puts them in a bind and looks more ridiculous by the day (roughly $21M per for the next four seasons).
• Anderson Varejao (PO) - this is a situation worth watching. Varejao held out the entire 2007-08 preseason to sign his current deal and his player option is for $6.2 million. It makes sense to want to remain LeBron James’ teammate, but the 26-year-old may also feel the urge to test free agent waters, and most of the teams with significant cap space could use his skill-set. The team’s level of success in the current postseason should also factor in his decision.
• Charlie Villanueva (R) - as previously mentioned, it should surprise noone if Ramon Sessions is ahead of Charlie V on the Bucks’ list of priorities. It’s hard to guage the market for this talented but enigmatic forward, but there certainly will be some interest. This is another case where a sign-and-trade probably makes sense for all parties involved.
• Rasheed Wallace (UR) - Sheed will turn 35 before the 2009-10 season begins, and it’s unlikely that he’ll be inundated with substantial offers in this economy. Here’s what makes the most sense to me: Sheed signs with the Spurs as their mid-level exception (~$6M) and makes one last run at the big prize with their terrific trio before they tear it down, just like the Pistons. Can you come up with something that is more win-win than that?
• Marvin Williams (R) - Williams has yet to show much to warrant his 2005 draft position (No.2 overall), but he’s still only 22 years old. Given the tight financial picture around the league, I don’t see a team stretching the budget to sign Williams - expect him to sign a qualifying offer with the Hawks and look for bigger money next offseason.
Others of note: Matt Barnes (UR), Brandon Bass (UR), Will Bynum (TO), Rodney Carney (UR), Eddy Curry (ETO), Ricky Davis (PO), Michael Finley (PO), Channing Frye (R), Drew Gooden (UR), Marcin Gortat (UR), Gerald Green (UR), Grant Hill (UR), Luther Head (UR), Dahntay Jones (UR), Fred Jones (UR), Linas Kleiza (R), Kyle Korver (ETO), Stephon Marbury (UR), Rashad McCants (R), Antonio McDyess (UR), Flip Murray (UR), Steve Novak (R), Leon Powe (R), Quentin Richardson (ETO), Kareem Rush (UR), James Singleton (UR), Ime Udoka (UR), Von Wafer (UR), Hakim Warrick (R), C.J. Watson (R), Chris Wilcox (UR)
Under the cap: Detroit (33.1), Memphis (34.2), Atlanta (40.9), Oklahoma City (41.8), Toronto (45.8), New Jersey (50.4), Portland (50.6), Minnesota (50.8), Sacramento (51.9), Charlotte (56.6), LA Clippers (56.7), Philadelphia (57.2), Indiana (57.8), and Golden State (59.3)
Over the cap: New Orleans (76.5), Washington (75.9), LA Lakers (74.1), Boston (72.4), Cleveland (71.9), Utah (71.2), Orlando (70.6), New York (69.9), Miami (69.6), Dallas (68.8), San Antonio (66.0), Houston (65.0), Milwaukee (64.7), Denver (63.2), Chicago (63.0), and Phoenix (62.3)
Legend: ETO = early termination option, PO = player option, TO = team option, R = restricted free agent, UR = unrestricted free agent
Chris Andersen• Chris Andersen (UR) - this guy loves playing in Denver and the feeling is mutual. He’ll have some suitors, but give the Nuggets the edge - he’s a good candidate for their mid-level exception.
• Trevor Ariza (UR) - Ariza is only 23 and should be one of the more sought-after players on the market, and the Lakers are already well over the cap for next season. I can see Toronto, New Jersey, and Minnesota being very interested.
• Ron Artest (UR) - things have worked out pretty well for Artest in Houston, particularly with Tracy McGrady on the shelf. But, the Rockets have no cap room and won’t be able to match a substantive offer from another team. Two questions: will someone else take a chance on Artest, and how much do the Rockets wish T-Mac’s $20 million salary (plus) was coming off the books this off-season as opposed to next?
• Mike Bibby (UR) - Bibby had an up-and-down season statistically but provided needed leadership for the young Hawks and played a big part in their success while Acie Law, the team’s “PG of the futureâ€, played 300 fewer minutes this season than he did as a rookie. Expect the Hawks to be very interested in retaining his services and for the feeling to be mutual.
• Carlos Boozer (PO) - Boozer has been saying for some time now that he plans to opt out of the final year of his contract ($12.7M) because he’ll be “due for a raise†even if he re-signs with the Jazz. Of course, playing fewer than 40 games for the second time in four years isn’t likely to help his market value. This one could go either way: he’s been known to go back on his word before (doh!), but he’s proven himself as a consistent double-double when he’s healthy, something that any team covets. Utah is likely to want to shed his salary and pay Paul Millsap less for comparable production. A sign-and-trade might be a best-case scenario for all parties involved; regardless, Boozer manning the post for the Pistons makes plenty of sense.
• Kobe Bryant (ETO) - it’s likely that Kobe returns to the Lakers next season.
• Josh Childress (R) - Childress can opt out of the remaining two years of his deal with Olympiacos and, if he were to do so, the Hawks would own his rights as a restricted free agent.
Jamal Crawford• Jamal Crawford (ETO) - by now, you know that Don Nelson told Crawford well before the season ended that he’s not in the team’s long-term plans and that he should opt out or prepare to be traded. I see Crawford pursuing that second option, given the current economic climate, as opposed to opting out of $20M over the next two seasons to find out what the market will pay him. I don’t see a huge demand elsewhere for his services at that price - nor do I see him wanting to do Nellie any favors - so this should get even more interesting/ugly.
• Marquis Daniels (TO) - this one could go either way. He’s useful to the team, especially with Mike Dunleavy being a huge question mark for most of 2009/10, but he’s not exactly cheap ($7.4), Brandon Rush will be the starter, and re-signing Jarrett Jack will be a much higher priority. Daniels will land on his feet elsewhere (albeit with a paycut) if the Pacers decline his option.
• Raymond Felton (R) - Felton surprised a number of people - including Larry Brown - with strong play and held off D.J. Augustin all year. Augustin certainly showed that he can play and I do expect the Bobcats to end up with Allen Iverson, however, so it’s possible we see Felton involved in a sign-and-trade. There aren’t a lot of young point guards on the market, so there should be a number of teams interested.
• Ben Gordon (UR) - the Bulls are already over the cap, so re-signing Gordon isn’t a no-brainer. He’s helped his stock with a gutty performance against the Celtics, as much as a proven 20-point scorer’s stock needs help. It’s likely that the Bulls try to get him back in the fold and concentrate on moving their major expiring contracts (Brad Miller $12.3M, Tim Thomas $6.5M) to ease their cap situation.
• Al Harrington (PO) - there’s no plausible scenario where Harrington makes more than $10 million elsewhere next season (or beyond), so he’s not going anywhere.
• Zydrunas Ilgauskas (ETO) - Big Z is due $11.5 million next season and will be in Cleveland until he retires.
Allen Iverson• Allen Iverson (UR) - this is my stock statement regarding AI: the only coach I see him comfortable playing for is Larry Brown, and Brown is the only coach that I can see being willing to bring him aboard. It just seems inevitable.
• Jarrett Jack (R) - I don’t think any team will value Jack as much as the Pacers, so they’ll do what it takes to keep him on their roster.
• David Lee (R) - there’s almost no way to tell which way the Knicks are going to go here. As of now, they have just four contracts on the books for 2010/11 (two player options, two team options) and it’s no secret that they want to keep as much cap space as possible open for next off-season. David Lee is just the kind of player that they’d want to surround a potential big-time free agent (or two) with, but they may see giving him close to an eight-figure salary as too risky to their grand ambitions. From a fantasy perspective, Lee would be solid as a starter just about anywhere - clearly, playing in the D’Antoni system is ideal.
• Shawn Marion (UR) - The shine is off of Marion’s star, both in fantasy and real life. He’ll be 31 this off-season and much of his previous success has to be directly tied to the friendly Suns system in which he spend his prime seasons. He’s still a solid and versatile player, but teams aren’t going to over-extend themselves to bring him aboard. Marion has said he wants to play for a winner, but to do that he’ll have to take a massive pay cut. Extenuating circumstances for both parties could mean that he re-ups with the Raptors.
• Andre Miller (UR) - The 33-year-old Miller has been a steadying influence for the 76ers, continuing a career-long trend. I could see a team like Minnesota looking for help at the helm of their young roster, but there aren’t a lot of plausible scenarios that involve Miller not staying on in Philly. Louis Williams can score the ball, but is anyone ready to call him a starting point guard?
Paul Millsap• Paul Millsap (R) - Millsap’s fate could largely depend on Carlos Boozer and Mehmet Okur, who are looking at player options totaling $22 million between the two of them. If neither players opt out, the Jazz may not be able to match the best of what figures to be a number of offers to make Millsap a starting power forward. Count on the Pistons (among others) closely monitoring the developments surrounding all three of the Jazz’s big men.
• Jamario Moon (R) - Moon has said that Miami fits him “perfectly†and that his priority is to re-sign with the team.
• Jermaine O’Neal (PO) - He’s not going to opt out of a final year that will pay him $23 million, so expect O’Neal to make his run at a new contract next season with the Heat.
• Lamar Odom (UR) - the level of postseason success that the Lakers are able to achieve this season could determine Odom’s fate. If the team does not win the championship, they may push their payroll into the stratosphere by using the Larry Bird exception to get Odom back in the fold for another run. If they do end up as the last team standing, all involved parties will be much more comfortable parting ways.
• Mehmet Okur (ETO) - regardless of who is playing power forward for the Jazz next season, there’s a pretty good chance that they want Okur as his frontcourt mate, and the feeling is mutual.
• Anthony Parker (UR) - Parker has already been declared a reserve if he were to return to the team, so expect the versatile veteran to explore any and all of his options.
• Nate Robinson (R) - much of what was said about David Lee can be said about Robinson. The Knicks are banking on a huge off-season a year from now, but risk lots of negative PR if they allow Robinson to walk, particularly if he doesn’t get big-time offers from any other teams. Nate’s fantasy prospects take a fairly substantial hit if he does end up somewhere other than New York.
Ramon Sessions• Ramon Sessions (R) - Even Charlie Villanueva thinks re-signing Sessions should be the team’s priority. Crazier things have happened, though, and the 23-year-old Sessions should get serious offers from a number of teams. What is certain is that both Sessions and Charlie V don’t fit in the Bucks’ plans financially without a trade that involves shedding some other salary (like Richard Jefferson, who probably isn’t going to generate much interest).
• Hedo Turkoglu (ETO) - although he regressed a bit this season, Hedo could command a bit more than the $7.3 million he’s due next season on the open market. He’s said he’ll opt out if only because it makes sense for his family to get more guaranteed money, and it’s hard to fault him for that. It’s likely that the Magic want to keep their core intact for at least another season, but Rashard Lewis’ contract puts them in a bind and looks more ridiculous by the day (roughly $21M per for the next four seasons).
• Anderson Varejao (PO) - this is a situation worth watching. Varejao held out the entire 2007-08 preseason to sign his current deal and his player option is for $6.2 million. It makes sense to want to remain LeBron James’ teammate, but the 26-year-old may also feel the urge to test free agent waters, and most of the teams with significant cap space could use his skill-set. The team’s level of success in the current postseason should also factor in his decision.
• Charlie Villanueva (R) - as previously mentioned, it should surprise noone if Ramon Sessions is ahead of Charlie V on the Bucks’ list of priorities. It’s hard to guage the market for this talented but enigmatic forward, but there certainly will be some interest. This is another case where a sign-and-trade probably makes sense for all parties involved.
• Rasheed Wallace (UR) - Sheed will turn 35 before the 2009-10 season begins, and it’s unlikely that he’ll be inundated with substantial offers in this economy. Here’s what makes the most sense to me: Sheed signs with the Spurs as their mid-level exception (~$6M) and makes one last run at the big prize with their terrific trio before they tear it down, just like the Pistons. Can you come up with something that is more win-win than that?
• Marvin Williams (R) - Williams has yet to show much to warrant his 2005 draft position (No.2 overall), but he’s still only 22 years old. Given the tight financial picture around the league, I don’t see a team stretching the budget to sign Williams - expect him to sign a qualifying offer with the Hawks and look for bigger money next offseason.
Others of note: Matt Barnes (UR), Brandon Bass (UR), Will Bynum (TO), Rodney Carney (UR), Eddy Curry (ETO), Ricky Davis (PO), Michael Finley (PO), Channing Frye (R), Drew Gooden (UR), Marcin Gortat (UR), Gerald Green (UR), Grant Hill (UR), Luther Head (UR), Dahntay Jones (UR), Fred Jones (UR), Linas Kleiza (R), Kyle Korver (ETO), Stephon Marbury (UR), Rashad McCants (R), Antonio McDyess (UR), Flip Murray (UR), Steve Novak (R), Leon Powe (R), Quentin Richardson (ETO), Kareem Rush (UR), James Singleton (UR), Ime Udoka (UR), Von Wafer (UR), Hakim Warrick (R), C.J. Watson (R), Chris Wilcox (UR)
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