UFC 103: I guess we get to see what the lowest possible buyrate they can do will be..

[Warner2BruceTD]

Right, but if good fights can't sell then the sport really isn't in a good position IMO.

"Good fights" have never drawn money, and never will.

Personalities sell fights, not fight quality.

[Liquidrob]

and Rothwell's debut but outside of them and of course the main event the rest of the card is meh.

you're excited to see Rothwell get smoked by Cain?

All abroad the Cain Train, woo woo!

[Warner2BruceTD]

102 has Randy, I think he can carry that show to about 500k, even with a non drawing opponent. The advance is mediocre, they won't sell out. 10k sold for a 19,000 setup. People don't care enough about Nog.

103 is interesting because it goes head to head with PBF. Franklin is a marginal draw at best. The free undercard on Spike will help, and it's something they should always do. It's essentially a one hour commercial for the PPV. I think anything over 300k should be considered a win.

104 has nothing, unless I am underestimating Machida. Foreigners who don't speak english are generally weak draws (i.e. Anderson Silva), no matter how great they perform. Nothing on the undercard will help. Whatever 104 does will be the new low level of what they can do. If UFC 100 & the videogame have created new fans, this show will be the proof, because it truly has nothing except the letters "UFC" going for it.

sidenote-A very strong "Countdown" show for any of these shows changes everything, but I dont see how Machida and Shogun can successfully hype a fight since they are both Brazilian.

The bottom line, is these three shows will go a long way to showing just how powerful UFC is right now if they somehow pull big numbers. I just dont see it, especially for 104.

[Liquidrob]

I was just going to say, 102, 103 and 104 wont be big, I dont really know much many people are going to buy 102, there doesnt seem to be to much hype about it

They wont have a big PPV until Brock fights again on 106, just to many PPVs

[Liquidrob]

105 will be 'big' because its free and its BJ/Diego, everyone watches free UFC fights, but that wouldnt be a big PPV either

[Warner2BruceTD]

This is interesting...

102 advance: 10k, $1.8M

103 advance: 12k, $2.1M

Obviously 103 is farther out, too.

It's easy to pick on Nog, but that show is in Randy's hometown, and they probably won't sell out.

[Liquidrob]

M-1 tomorrow night is going to put the UFC out of business, breakthrough! I heard the tickets are selling like crazy

[Steel Mamba]

The sport isnt in a good position, the UFC is, but MMA is not

If the UFC can't sell more than 200k on that PPV then they're not in a good position either.

[Liquidrob]

If the UFC can't sell more than 200k on that PPV then they're not in a good position either.

nah, the UFC is fine, they can make a 500K PPV without even trying, they probably are just testing the Machida drawing power with this one

[Steel Mamba]

"Good fights" have never drawn money, and never will.

Personalities sell fights, not fight quality.

I think you're taking that a little too far, but if that is the case then there really aren't very many fight fans and the sport has not grown. You can say there's a lot of fans of the excitement and drama that coincides with certain fights, but if that's all that draws the masses then there aren't a lot of fight fans.

Ultimately, IMO, you have to build and market this sport whereas good fights will almost sell their selves. The UFC is heading down the wrong road if they don't reach that outcome soon.

& I don't want to make it seem like this card is really great or anything, it's not jaw dropping but it is a solid buy right now. To say that this will only do 200k is an insult to all of the talent that's on the card. There’s a top 10 LHW on that card squaring off against one of the top 10 P4P fighters in the world, battling for one of the marquee belts in all of MMA. The card also features a top 10 LW, an exciting and upcoming WW, and two upcoming and exciting HWs, one of which is possibly on the verge of breaking in the top 10 of his class as well. If that's 200k then the UFC is in a really shitty position right now, because you're not always going to have drama and extreme characters, if at the end of the day you can't sell a good fight then you really don't have a true sport on your hands.

But, again I'd be shocked if it did less than 500k. I think there's enough true fight fans out there for this card to pull good numbers without the likes of a Brock Lesnar. If that's not the case then the UFC would really need to reexamine the way they're doing things.

[Warner2BruceTD]

I think you're taking that a little too far, but if that is the case then there really aren't very many fight fans and the sport has not grown. You can say there's a lot of fans of the excitement and drama that coincides with certain fights, but if that's all that draws the masses then there aren't a lot of fight fans.

Name one fight, ever, that drew simply based on the abililities of the fighters. MMA or boxing.

The answer is zero, because if that was the case, something like Maia vs. Marquardt would be headlining and doing big numbers.

Now, name all of the shitty fights that did big numbers based on name value and personality.

You get the point. It's a star driven business, ability means very very little (IMO, it means nothing).

Ultimately, IMO, you have to build and market this sport whereas good fights will almost sell their selves. The UFC is heading down the wrong road if they don't reach that outcome soon.

& I don't want to make it seem like this card is really great or anything, it's not jaw dropping but it is a solid buy right now. To say that this will only do 200k is an insult to all of the talent that's on the card. There’s a top 10 LHW on that card squaring off against one of the top 10 P4P fighters in the world, battling for one of the marquee belts in all of MMA. The card also features a top 10 LW, an exciting and upcoming WW, and two upcoming and exciting HWs, one of which is possibly on the verge of breaking in the top 10 of his class as well. If that's 200k then the UFC is in a really shitty position right now, because you're not always going to have drama and extreme characters, if at the end of the day you can't sell a good fight then you really don't have a true sport on your hands.

But, again I'd be shocked if it did less than 500k. I think there's enough true fight fans out there for this card to pull good numbers without the likes of a Brock Lesnar. If that's not the case then the UFC would really need to reexamine the way they're doing things.

They just did 1.7 million buys, and followed up with 850 for 101. Saying the sport isnt growing, and that they need to reexamine the way they do things, is flat out silly.

Look, i'm not saying it will be the end of the world if 104 (or 102 or 103) draws badly. But either way, it will establish the drawing power of Machida.

The next three shows will really show the power of 100, and the videogame, if they can do good numbers.

Again, 500k wouldnt surprise me for that lineup--it would shock me. I just cant see it. They would need a really amazing hype special to get Machida v Shogun over to the masses.

200k might be too low the more I think about it, but let me put it this way--500 would shock me much more than 200 would, and I think it will be closer to 200.

[Liquidrob]

It has to be a balance of both, you can get away with lack of skill a couple times, but you need skills to keep people coming IMO, I think the UFC does a pretty good job of it for the most part

The guys they hype more than normal have the skills to back it up, even Brock, he is a great athlete and has legit wrestling skills to go with it

Even Tito back in the day, he was way overhyped and they put him in good match ups, but he was still very skilled

[Warner2BruceTD]

Five years ago, UFC considered breaking 100k buys a raging success.

I guess fight quality has gotten 17 times better since then. Huh.

Also:

-Highest rated network fight of all time, and the most viewed fight of all time: Kimbo vs. James Thomson

-Highest rated basic cable fight of all time: Ken Shamrock vs. Tito Ortiz, the fight the sherdog geeks said "nobody wanted to see"

-Highest rated premium cable fight of all time: Gina Carano vs. Cyborg Santos, #2 is Tank Abbott vs. Kimbo Slice

-Highest PPV buyrate of all time: Brock Lesnar vs. Frank Mir

-Highest paid attendance, North America: Frank Shamrock vs. Ceaser Gracie

Of those 6 fights, none were expected to be great fights. Most were considered mismatches or freak shows. They all drew based on name value, personality, and in some cases, pro wrestling style build/grudges.

In fact, you could argue that all 6 were expected to be terrible fights, and 3 were expected to be terribly one sided, with 5 ending up that way.

TV exposure creates stars, regardless of skill/ability. The UFC explosion and rapid growth is real, and has almost nothing to do with the ability of the fighters or the quality of the fights.

[Steel Mamba]

Name one fight, ever, that drew simply based on the abililities of the fighters. MMA or boxing.

PacMan/Hatton
Cotto/Margarito
DLH/Mosley
Mosley/Vargas
Cotto/Mosley

and a lot more..

The answer is zero, because if that was the case, something like Maia vs. Marquardt would be headlining and doing big numbers.

Now, name all of the shitty fights that did big numbers based on name value and personality.

You get the point. It's a star driven business, ability means very very little (IMO, it means nothing).

If ability means nothing then how are guys like Cotto, PacMan, Mosley, etc doing such good numbers? They sell because they're the best fighters and put on exciting fights. There's really only but a few guys left in boxing who could sell anything based on their personality alone. RJJ, though his #s are starting to dwindle because his talent is as well, Mayweather, and B-Hop. Everyone else is selling because of their ability.

In boxing when you have some of the P4P best squaring off it sells well. To say that the same occurence in MMA could do less than 200k is not a good sign of a solid fanbase at all and would suggest that no, they have not converted many people into fans.

[Liquidrob]

You will see it more in MMA than Boxing Steel Mamba, MMA has way to many Pro Wrestling fans and they eat that shit up, the average boxing fan would rather watch a higher skilled fighter than the average MMA fan

They both use the fake hype tactics and the fans love it, but when it comes down to watching or buying a fight the boxing fan cares more about the skill level than Joe MMA fan, the overall the skill level is much higher in boxing than MMA because of the having a good amateur system and better athletes overall

If you had to break it down for reasons fans watch fights, you can use exciting fighters, skill level and the spectacle of it

Boxing Fan:
1. Exciting fighters
2. Skill level
3. The spectacle/hype

MMA Fan:
1. Exciting fighters
2. The spectacle/hype
3. Skill level