Breaking Down The Numbers Of UFC 102

[Warner2BruceTD]

Keep in mind that any figure in the first two weeks is at best a rough estimate, but based on several early sources, most of which indicated numbers slightly more than one-half of UFC 101, or slightly less than one-half, the best first projection would be about 435,000 buys.

This is awful news when it comes to 103 & 104.

103 has a "meh" drawing main event of Franklin vs. Belfort, and goes head to head vs. Floyd Mayweather. The boxing will beat the UFC, the only question is by how much, and it will give all of the old geezer boxing writers a chance to artificially gloat, even though no other boxer on the planet aside from PBF would outdraw UFC right now, and beating Franklin/Belfort is hardly beating Chuck Liddell or Lesnar.

104 is in even bigger trouble, with an awful drawing main event of Machida vs. Shogun, and nothing underneath that can help. I've been saying all along that whatever 104 does will be the new bottom baseline of what the worst non European UFC can do (in fact, I think it will do less than a few of the better drawing Euro shows). With Randy F'n Couture only doing 450k or so, something in the 200's isnt out of the question for 104.

Who can potentially save UFC from two disasterous buyrates?

Kimbo Slice.

Machida/Shogun will surely benefit from taking place during TUF 10, which should be the highest rated TUF in years, if not ever, thanks to Slice.

I still say 104 will set the new low water mark.

UFC 102 on 8/29 at the Rose Garden in Portland, OR, drew 16,088 total fans, paying $1.92 million. It was significantly papered, with the paid attendance said to be about 10,500. It was the fifth largest gate ever in the arena.

White said the next time they come to the Pacific Northwest, it will be Seattle. So much for Portland being a MMA hotbed.

It should be noted that drawing 10k paying customers for $1.92M is nothing to sneeze at, but the UFC bar is now set much higher than that. That's a top level Strikeforce crowd.

Both the buyrate & paid attendance also show that Randy Couture is not a huge draw on his own anymore, and can not carry a non draw to big numbers.


Some positives that came out of this show, is Nog & Nate Marquardt came away bigger stars than they ever have been. Even so, I found this amusing:

Lesnar was at the show, partially to corner training partner Chris Tuchscherer, and was sitting at ringside with Dana White during the main event. By the third round, Lesnar was screaming for Couture to finish Nogueira while on top, given he wasn’t going to win the decision. Lesnar told White that he wanted to defend his title against Couture. Lesnar calls himself a “prize fighter,” with the prize being money. He understands from being taught by Vince McMahon and/or Paul Heyman, at least some dynamics of what will make money, and with his pay tied to a percentage of PPV, he recognizes that Couture is his best possible opponent. From a pure business standpoint, that would still be the money match, but from a sports standpoint, it is not a match that can be made now. Unless Lesnar loses to Carwin, at which point such a match very well could happen, it’s not a match that can happen any time soon.

Can't blame him, but IMO Nog's performance may have finally broke him through to the casual fan base. I think Brock/Nog would do a very good number, maybe even a great one if the hype was good. Lesnar might have to go into full asshole mode to do it, and rile up the sherdog geeks.

Whatever Lesnar/Carwin does, i'd say Lesnar/Nog could do 20% more with good hype.

[Liquidrob]

UFC MMA peaked at 100, now its all down hill from here besides when Brock fights, to many cards and not enough stars, its a double edged sword, they branded the UFC name, but you still have to put on great fights with big names to sell it, guys like Machida dont sell to Billy Bob and Toothless Jeb

It has changed from 'Are you going to watch the next UFC!' to 'Hey, who's fighting on the next UFC?'

After Carwin KO's Brock they will be throwing money at Bobby Lashley to save the company

[CrimsonGhost56]

Machida/Shogun is an awful main event? what crack you smoking? appeals to the hardcore and the causal alike. best main event so far this year IMO

[Warner2BruceTD]

Machida/Shogun is an awful main event? what crack you smoking? appeals to the hardcore and the causal alike. best main event so far this year IMO

It's a good main event for the 12 geeks who post here, but Joe UFC Fan will not buy that show.

[Liquidrob]

Machida/Shogun is an awful main event? what crack you smoking? appeals to the hardcore and the causal alike. best main event so far this year IMO

W2B knows who buys the PPV, Machida/Shogun is great for us, the same guys who could barely get Fedor to break 100k and that was with help from spikey haired, spray on tan douche ball $90 t-shirt buyers

[Warner2BruceTD]

UFC MMA peaked at 100, now its all down hill from here besides when Brock fights, to many cards and not enough stars, its a double edged sword, they branded the UFC name, but you still have to put on great fights with big names to sell it, guys like Machida dont sell to Billy Bob and Toothless Jeb

It has changed from 'Are you going to watch the next UFC' to 'Hey, who's fighting on the next UFC?'

After Carwin KO's Brock they will be throwing money at Bobby Lashley to save the company

UFC is running 3 shows per month next year.

Strikeforce is going to run 20 shows.

Granted, some of these will be Fight Nights & Challengers, but how the hell are they going to come up with 56 marketable main events??

Plus, i'm sure someone will throw three letters together and jump in the game at some point, and inevitably fail in the process.

sidenote-please understand guys, I think all of these shows are great from a hardcore fan perspective, i'd watch shows every night if I could. But oversaturation of the product is a bad thing for the long term health of the sport...they are expanding faster than they are creating stars.

[CrimsonGhost56]

i really think your underestimating the UFC hype machine. even if your the most casual of fans i dont see how you wouldn't want to see Machida fight. he is an amazing fighter and his last two fights have been great. yeah hes not brock lesnar but not too many people are, and the last people saw of shogun he was knocking out a legend and dont forget the massive amount of pride footage of him destroying people. machida/shogun is a hardcore fans wet dream and yes that fight alone is enough to sell to them. if anything its the poor undercard that will bring down the numbers, no way its the main event.

[Liquidrob]

Strikeforce better to a lot of the Challenger Series because they have no where near the talent the UFC has and the UFC has a lack of talent

I think the UFC and Strikeforce are both going way to hard right now, at least with Strikeforce you dont really have to pay, tough to be a hardcore UFC fan and buy all those PPVs

[Liquidrob]

Problem with Shogun/Machida is they both dont really speak english well and dont talk trash, they will get there buys and make money of course, but not like they should for a match like that, I'm pumped for it, but the average dude will probably pass

[Warner2BruceTD]

The other thing, is nobody is crying a river for UFC for "only" doing 450 or potentially doing 300 or less for the next two shows. They still bank millions for low drawing shows, otherwise they would cut back. Instead, they are adding to the schedule.

UFC will do monster numbers for Rmapage/Evans, Brock/Carwin, whatever they throw together for New Years Eve, and IMO whoever Anderson Silve fights next (Hendo or Nate) because I think his thrashing of Forrest has finally broke him through as a serious draw, and Hendo and Nate are at their peak coming off awesome wins. Plus Tito is back.

At the end of the day, this is one monster year for Zuffa. Each year keeps surpasing the previous, but unless new stars are created, the growth will subside at some point.

[Warner2BruceTD]

i really think your underestimating the UFC hype machine. even if your the most casual of fans i dont see how you wouldn't want to see Machida fight. he is an amazing fighter and his last two fights have been great. yeah hes not brock lesnar but not too many people are, and the last people saw of shogun he was knocking out a legend and dont forget the massive amount of pride footage of him destroying people. machida/shogun is a hardcore fans wet dream and yes that fight alone is enough to sell to them. if anything its the poor undercard that will bring down the numbers, no way its the main event.

Randy Couture just did 435.

I'd be shocked if Machida tops that. He speaks no english, has no track record as a draw, and Shogun means zip. The undercard is a complete void.

Maybe TUF10 will bump it up a level. We'll see.

[CrimsonGhost56]

what are the odds of UFC 107 getting close to a million? as far as the rest of the year goes i think it has the best potential to do monster numbers (outside of brocks fight obviously). Rampage/Rashad and Penn has been confirmed to be on the card (most likely against Diego). those are two killer main events.

[Liquidrob]

M-1 has cornered the exhibition market

Fedor and Mousasi will travel the USA like a carneys and work all the local farmers markets and pie eating contests

[Liquidrob]

what are the odds of UFC 107 getting close to a million? as far as the rest of the year goes i think it has the best potential to do monster numbers (outside of brocks fight obviously). Rampage/Rashad and Penn has been confirmed to be on the card (most likely against Diego). those are two killer main events.

I think Penn/Diego will be a free card which is nice

[Warner2BruceTD]

what are the odds of UFC 107 getting close to a million? as far as the rest of the year goes i think it has the best potential to do monster numbers (outside of brocks fight obviously). Rampage/Rashad and Penn has been confirmed to be on the card (most likely against Diego). those are two killer main events.

I think Rampage & Evans coming off of TUF 10, with all the talk of it being a great season with Rampage & Evans really being heated towards each other, plus Penn, that 107 will top 1 million.

Don't foget they also get free hype on Spike with the TUF finale, which will probably feature Kimbo and do a gigantic rating.

Anything less than 850 or so would be disappointing IMO.

I could change my mind as the season unfolds, but based on what we know, that's what I think.