2012 Regression Candidates

[NAHSTE]

Hitters:

- Starlin Castro will have a subpar season. High contact, average dependent hitter. Will also continue to get worse at SS.

- Matt Kemp's power will go back to normal. 27-32 bombs for him, not 40, and definitely not 50.

- Emilio Bonifacio. Why? Because, Emilio Bonifacio.

- Michael Morse. Obvious BABIP outlier is obvious.


Pitchers

- Fister and the three fatties will be a bad situation in Detroit. His ERA could double.



***warning: :dtrain: baiting to Reds fans below***

- Tat Latos will give up a ton of home runs. He will remain a good pitcher, but he'll be high strikeout, high flyball guy which could lead to problems with that river wind in Cincy. Let's face it, he's a rich man's Anibal Sanchez at this point. :shifty:

 

[Rudi]

Kyle Lohse.

 

[Primetime]

Ryan Braun
Randy Wolf

 

[nwfisch]

How can Castro get worse at SS?

He led the majors in errors last year, hard to get worse than that.

He led the NL in hits last year, so 2nd place could be classified as regression?

 

[Primetime]

How can Castro get worse at SS?

He led the majors in errors last year, hard to get worse than that.

He led the NL in hits last year, so 2nd place could be classified as regression?

What about sub-par do you not understand?

 

[nwfisch]

What about sub-par do you not understand?

So his first full season in the major leagues, leads the NL in hits, and that's par?

 

[Primetime]

So his first full season in the major leagues, leads the NL in hits, and that's par?

 

[nwfisch]

Instead of facepalm gifs, you could explain how you believe Castro is going to regress.


Where do you see him at stats wise? I see 300 average, 20 HRs, 15 SBs, 200 hits. I wouldn't call that regression.

I don't believe he can get worse defensively, as he lead the league in errors last year.

 

[Slateman]

I think Morse will regress. I think it will have more to do with opposing pitchers having a healthy respect for him. His power will still be there. His BABIP has always been high

Pujols. Mainly because of the contract.

Verlander - Mainly because the numbers he put up last year were so freaking amazing. I think he'll be right around his career average instead of like last year

 

[FedEx227]

Slate, still not getting what BABIP means and still not understanding sample sizes.

 

[FedEx227]

Basically, here is it.

Mike Morse in his first year of getting more than 300 plate apperances had a BABIP well beyond the league average. Unless his offense centers around beating out infield grounders, his BABIP will regress towards the mean like every other player ever.

Just because 2010 in nearly 300 PA his BABIP was high has NO bearing on his BABIP number last year. His number is simply unsustainable barring him becoming Ichiro or in his prime Chone Figgins.

 

[Primetime]

Instead of facepalm gifs, you could explain how you believe Castro is going to regress.


Where do you see him at stats wise? I see 300 average, 20 HRs, 15 SBs, 200 hits. I wouldn't call that regression.

I don't believe he can get worse defensively, as he lead the league in errors last year.

- Starlin Castro will have a subpar season. High contact, average dependent hitter. Will also continue to get worse at SS.

- Nahste

Learn to read. I didn't say anything about predicting he will regress. Clearly Nahste doesn't feel he will be nearly as productive as he was last season. Some might even call it a SUBPAR season.

 

[nwfisch]

- Starlin Castro will have a subpar season. High contact, average dependent hitter. Will also continue to get worse at SS.

- Nahste

Learn to read. I didn't say anything about predicting he will regress. Clearly Nahste doesn't feel he will be nearly as productive as he was last season. Some might even call it a SUBPAR season.

 

[FedEx227]

Didn't you just call Primetime out for using a facepalmn and not defending your point?

 

[Goober]

Starlin Castro has always had a pretty high BABIP, and has the type of game where you'd expect that. Unlike Morse, lol. Still there's not that much data to go off of given his young age.

 

[Slateman]

Basically, here is it.

Mike Morse in his first year of getting more than 300 plate apperances had a BABIP well beyond the league average. Unless his offense centers around beating out infield grounders, his BABIP will regress towards the mean like every other player ever.

Just because 2010 in nearly 300 PA his BABIP was high has NO bearing on his BABIP number last year. His number is simply unsustainable barring him becoming Ichiro or in his prime Chone Figgins.

No, I get what it means. And it's not sustainable. But that doesn't mean that it will happen this year.

2005 - 258 PA - .341 BABIP
2006 - 228 PA - .298 BABIP (Triple A)
2007 - 324 PA - .349 BABIP (Triple A)
2009 - 472 PA - .364 BABIP (Triple A)
2010 - 293 PA - .330 BABIP
2011 - 575 PA - .344 BABIP

When he gets steady ABs, his BABIP has almost always been high. He strikes out a lot, which brings his average down.

The theory of BABIP is that if it's high, then it's not natural and the player will regress. Of course he will. EVERYONE regresses. It's part of the game.

So to sit there and say that because he had a high BABIP last year, he's due for a regression is a circular arguement. There have been plenty of hitters that had poor BABIP and then rebounded to have great ones the next year. There have been lot's of hitters who maintained a high BABIP for quite a while.

To say that BABIP is the only reason that Morse will regress is a little too dependant on one stat. If you wanted to combine it with K%, OPS and ISO then you would have good arguement. And, frankly, I think BABIP is a better determination of a player's luck than anything else.

 

[Slateman]

I think Jacoby Ellsbury will regress from last year as well.

 

[Woy]

Cardinals:
Lance Berkman (still should be good, but last year's numbers will not be matched)
Rafael Furcal (could easily see him not starting for us by mid-season)
Kyle McClellan (was a solid fill-in for Wainwright through the first half of 2011, I doubt he'll be on the roster by the end of 2012)

Rest of League:
Ryan Braun (doesn't have Prince to help him out, and the PED talk will rattle him)
Doug Fister
Vance Worley

 

[NAHSTE]

And it's not sustainable. But that doesn't mean that it will happen this year.

:joeybats:

 

[FedEx227]

I got a chuckle out of that too.