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2012 Regression Candidates

All I'm saying is that to point at what amounts to barely three seasons worth of ABs and say that he's due for a regression because his BABIP is high is too dependant on one stat. Everyone's BABIP will regress at some point. Even speedsters. Everyone's BABIP is unsustainable.

His LD% has gone up. His power has increased.
 
No, everyone's BABIP isn't unsustainable. The unsustainable BABIPs are the ones that are wildly above or below the league average... which is what makes them unsustainable.

This is years upon years of data saying that statistically your batting average of balls in play should hover around a certain number. If for whatever reason one year it doesn't, the chances of it regressing back is very, very probable.
 
I get what Slateman is saying, but what he is saying probably is not going to occur.

Morse's BABIP & LD% was in the Cabrera/Votto range last season. Thing is, Miggy & Votto have sustained those averages for years, thus establishing a baseline, while Morse has done it once.

I don't think anybody believes Michael Morse is a hitter the caliber of Miguel Cabrera or Joey Votto, so it is highly unlikely he sustains those numbers. It's not that the numbers are unsustainable per say, it's that they are very unlikely to be sustained by a 30 year old journeyman.

He had a nice season, good for him. He can regress a bit and still be a pretty good player.
 
I'm 1 for 4 so far on hitters. Morse is a bum, but everyone else is ballin' out. Kemp has three bombs already, and Bonifacio and Castro are hitting .350.
 
Well I don't feel like waiting until July to start talking about baseball, so we're just going to have to deal with the #sss caveat as a given for right now.
 
I was going to say Worley, but Woy beat me to it. So I'll instead say that Bastardo is almost definitely going to regress (although I don't know if you can call it regression if the player should have never been hitting the level he was beforehand -- I'd say he'll just go back to normal).
 
Starlin Castro has 6 walks in 240 plate appearances. OBP is down 20 points despite BA staying nearly identical.

:tiptoe:
 
You called Castro, let's see about the others...

Kemp was on pace to have an absolute monster season with well over 50 HR before his injuries.

Bonifacio's AVG/OBP/SLG have dropped but his other numbers are still solid. 19 R, 3 3B, 20 SB after 39 games.

Morse hasn't played, so you get that one so far.

Doug Fister, no way he was matching his 8-1, 1.79 ERA, .84 WHIP year. SO's are down, walks are up as are hits and home runs allowed.

Mat Latos, home runs are up as predicted (almost 3x as high as last season if he keeps this pace).


So, 4 out of 6 ain't bad.
 
EmpireWF said:
You called Castro, let's see about the others...

Kemp was on pace to have an absolute monster season with well over 50 HR before his injuries.

Bonifacio's AVG/OBP/SLG have dropped but his other numbers are still solid. 19 R, 3 3B, 20 SB after 39 games.

Morse hasn't played, so you get that one so far.

Doug Fister, no way he was matching his 8-1, 1.79 ERA, .84 WHIP year. SO's are down, walks are up as are hits and home runs allowed.

Mat Latos, home runs are up as predicted (almost 3x as high as last season if he keeps this pace).


So, 4 out of 6 ain't bad.
Click to expand...

In 18 plate appearances he's only slugging .375 (small sample size, of course)

:oops:
 
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