Analyzing the Draft & Free Agency

[St. Francisco]

Many of you know that I'm a straight sim guy when it comes to Madden and NCAA. As such, one of the most important parts of the game for me each year is the offseason, and specifically how imported draft classes come through, and how the computer handles their teams. With that in mind, I'll be doing some analysis on how Madden operates, not only for my benefit, but to better the knowledge of the community. Here's how it's going to work.

I will simulate a season of Madden, controlling all of the teams so I can view the potential of each player. During free agency, I will make a list of the top players signed, and then analyze each signing to see if the CPU made the right decision.

In NCAA, I will simulate a season without making any changes to the conference structure. I will save the game at the end of the season on a separate file so I can go back and view stats afterwards. After I've imported the draft class, I'll jump back to Madden. I'll do a quick run through the draft to record the OVR ratings and potential of the players. Then, I'll do the draft again after allowing the CPU to take over the teams again so we can see draft-day trades. Afterwards, I'll do a pick-by-pick analysis of the draft to see how well the CPU decides. I'll also be referencing NCAA to see the OVR ratings and stats of the rookies, so that I can judge how well the draft classes are being translated into Madden by the computer. I'm not sure how many rounds I'm gonna do right now...probably three.

This project will be done using the newly-found information over at OS. Draft priority will be set to 0 on kickers and punters, and 0 on quarterbacks for teams who have a future star at the position. I'll be doing this project over the weekend. First up will be the free agency period.

 

[G-men]

Looking forward to it.

 

[St. Francisco]

End of season standings:

[b][u]NFC NORTH[/b][/u]                               [b][u]AFC NORTH[/b][/u]

[b]# TEAM                W-L               # TEAM                W-L[/b]
1 Y-GREEN BAY         9-7               1 Y-PITTSBURGH       13-3
2 CHICAGO             8-8               2 X-BALTIMORE        11-5
3 MINNESOTA           7-9               3 CINCINNATI          8-8
4 DETROIT            6-10               4 CLEVELAND           7-9


[b][u]NFC SOUTH[/b][/u]                               [b][u]AFC SOUTH[/b][/u]

[b]# TEAM                W-L               # TEAM                W-L[/b]
1 Z-NEW ORLEANS      12-4               1 Y-JACKSONVILLE      8-8
2 X-ATLANTA          11-5               2 INDIANAPOLIS        8-8
3 TAMPA BAY          5-11               3 HOUSTON             8-8
4 CAROLINA           5-11               4 TENNESSEE           7-9


[b][u]NFC EAST[/b][/u]                                [b][u]AFC EAST[/b][/u]

[b]# TEAM                W-L               # TEAM                W-L[/b]
1 Y-PHILADELPHIA      9-7               1 Z-NEW ENGLAND      15-1
2 N.Y. GIANTS         8-8               2 MIAMI               7-9
3 WASHINGTON          8-8               3 BUFFALO            6-10
4 DALLAS             6-10               4 N.Y. JETS          5-11


[b][u]NFC WEST[/b][/u]                                [b][u]AFC WEST[/b][/u]

[b]# TEAM                W-L               # TEAM                W-L[/b]
1 Y-ARIZONA           9-7               1 Y-KANSAS CITY       9-7
2 X-ST. LOUIS         8-8               2 X-SAN DIEGO         9-7
3 SEATTLE             7-9               3 OAKLAND            6-10
4 SAN FRANCISCO      6-10               4 DENVER             5-11

WILD CARD PLAYOFFS
Kansas City 24, San Diego 12
Green Bay 35, St. Louis 3
Baltimore 19, Jacksonville 16 (OT)
Philadelphia 28, Atlanta 27

DIVISIONAL PLAYOFFS
New England 17, Kansas City 7
New Orleans 21, Philadelphia 9
Pittsburgh 17, Baltimore 13
Arizona 26, Green Bay 13

CHAMPIONSHIP PLAYOFFS
New England 24, Pittsburgh 17
New Orleans 13, Arizona 10

SUPER BOWL
New Orleans 20, New England 13

 

[Aso]

Those have got to be the ugliest end of season standings I have ever seen.

 

[G-men]

LOL at the Jets potentially having the first overall pick in the draft....and with 5-11 record nonetheless.

 

[St. Francisco]

Ok, I've gone through free agency, and picked out the top 53 players signed. I'll break them down by team, and analyze the decisions made.

 

[FirstTimer]

Those have got to be the ugliest end of season standings I have ever seen.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1985_NFL_season

 

[St. Francisco]

CHICAGO BEARS

Signed:
DT Antonio Garay, 81 OVR, B POT, 32 yrs. old

Analysis:
Garay will come in at the top of the depth chart ahead of Matt Toeaina (78 OVR, B POT), and Amobi Okoye (76 OVR, B POT), two young players with a much better chance at progression than the aging Garay. The Bears ranked 6th against the ground game in 2011, but were a pedestrian 17th in sacks. Perhaps Garay could help in in that area, as he recorded 5.5 sacks in 2010, but did not see much playing time in 2011. In the end, I'm going to consider this a decent pick up. Garay adds experience to some young defensive tackles, and could represent a minor immediate upgrade for the team.


CINCINNATI BENGALS

Signed:
RT Ryan Harris, 80 OVR, B POT, 27 yrs. old

Analysis:
Harris is only the third offensive tackle on the roster, and the highest-rated one at that, so it's an automatic win in my book. He will join Dennis Roland (79 OVR, B POT) and Andre Smith (76 OVR, B POT). Harris is at a young enough age to be able to progress, and could step in as the team's left tackle immediately. He received little playing time in Philly last season, but could be the go-to man in Cincy this year. The team's 21st ranked rushing attack could use the boost, but they were suprisingly good at protecting the QB, ranking 4th in the league with just 28 sacks allowed.


BUFFALO BILLS

Signed:
K David Akers, 88 OVR, A POT, 37 yrs. old
WR Anquan Boldin, 84 OVR, A POT, 31 yrs. old
C Brad Meester, 83 OVR, B POT, 35 yrs. old
SS Yeremiah Bell, 83 OVR, B POT, 34 yrs. old
HB Joseph Addai, 83 OVR, B POT, 29 yrs. old
CB Cedric Griffin, 82 OVR, B POT, 29 yrs. old

Analysis:
Buffalo was extremely active in free agency, signing six players, all of whom will either start or see significant playing time next season. Akers, Meester, and Bell are the only players on the roster at their respective positions, Griffin comes in at the top of the depth chart at quarterback, and Boldin is a nice compliment to Steve Johnson now that Lee Evans has left town. The only pick-up I didn't like was Addai, only because I know how the CPU will use him. The team has C.J. Spiller (82 OVR, A POT) on the roster, but I have a good feeling that Addai, who is just one point better, will get the start. If the CPU used them as a dual-threat and listed Spiller as starter, I would agree with this pick as well.


DENVER BRONCOS

Signed:
RG Bobbie Williams, 89 OVR, B POT, 35 yrs. old
OLB Daryl Smith, 86 OVR, A POT, 30 yrs. old
C Shaun O'Hara, 82 OVR, A POT, 35 yrs. old

Analysis:
The Broncos' rushing attack ranked 13th, but they also ranked 28th in sacks allowed, giving up 39 on the year, so the two new additions to the o-line will be welcome. Williams is aging, but is one of the best o-lineman on the roster. The O'Hara signing I actually like, even though behind him sits two-year veteran J.D. Walton, who is 77 overall with A potential. O'Hara is a short-term solution at his age, which will allow Walton to progress and step into the starting role at a later date. Daryl Smith is an excellent signing to compliment Von Miller at linebacker.


CLEVELAND BROWNS

Signed:
P Dustin Colquitt, 85 OVR, B POT, 30 yrs. old
OLB D.J. Williams, 84 OVR, B POT, 30 yrs. old
OLB Will Witherspoon, 82 OVR, B POT, 32 yrs. old
FS Ryan Clark, 80 OVR, B POT, 32 yrs. old

Analysis:
All of these players are the only guys signed at their positions, making them all starters. In that regard, they're all solid pick-ups. Experienced players with decent overalls. The three new defensive players also serve to change the image of the nation's 22nd ranked defense who allowed 23 points per game last season despite ranking near the top of the league in both sacks and interceptions.


TAMPA BAY BUCCANEERS

Signed:
LT Andrew Whitworth, 84 OVR, B POT, 30 yrs. old
SS Deon Grant, 83 OVR, B POT, 32 yrs. old
MLB Takeo Spikes, 82 OVR, B POT, 35 yrs. old
CB Kelvin Hayden, 81 OVR, B POT, 29 yrs. old
OLB Jarret Johnson, 81 OVR, B POT, 31 yrs. old
K Shayne Graham, 80 OVR, B POT, 33 yrs. old

Analysis:
Like the Bills, Tampa Bay was also active in free agency, which is understandable given their dismal 5-11 finish. With Donald Penn (88 OVR, A POT) anchoring the line at left tackle, Whitworth was most certainly signed to start at right tackle, where the team has no players. Most of the signings came on defense, where the team ranked dead last in the league with 358 yards per game allowed, and dead last with 26 points per game. Grant, Spikes, and Johnson will all be starters, and Hayden is a nice number two beside Aqib Talib (86 OVR, A POT) at cornerback. I like Tampa Bay's free agency signings, I feel it accurately reflects what a real-life team would do, and I'm sure they'll also look hard at defense in the draft.


ARIZONA CARDINALS

Signed:
DT Fred Robbins, 82 OVR, B POT, 35 yrs. old
HB Cedric Benson, 80 OVR, B POT, 29 yrs. old

Analysis:
For the first time, the CPU decision-making does pretty poorly. Robbins will sit ahead of two-year pro Dan Williams (81 OVR, B POT) on the depth chart of a 3-4 defense. The two players are indistinguishable until you consider than Williams is ten years younger than Robbins. Williams should definitely be starting ahead of Robbins, but that won't happen. Benson will come in at the top of the depth chart at runningback ahead of Ryan Williams (77 OVR, A POT), a 2nd round draft choice in 2010 who is the obvious choice to spearhead this team going forward, but didn't see A SINGLE CARRY last season because he was two points lower than Beanie Wells (Upon further review of the 2011 season stats, Williams was injured...which I completely forgot about. I kept current injuries turned on). Not that Benson is a bad signing by himself after rushing for over 1,000 yards in each of his last three seasons...but with Williams, Wells, Stephens-Howling, and Smith already on the roster, it doesn't make sense, even if they did rank 26th in rushing last season. Just like the Bills, I'd be ok with the signing if I thought that Benson and Williams would split time equally, but that's not gonna happen. These decisions just go to show me that OVR rating is the only criteria for the CPU to sign a player. Still, at least these things aren't happening all the time...this is the first team out of the first seven that I didn't like.


SAN DIEGO CHARGERS

No players signed

 

[St. Francisco]

First eight teams are up...really, the only team I didn't like was Arizona, so I'm mildly pleased so far. HOWEVER, the trend to me is definitely noticeable, and the CPU is operating just like they do in the draft. If a free agent has a higher OVR than their current player, or if they have no players at the position, then they target him with no regard to potential or age of the free agent, or their current players.

Madden will need to do a better job with player roles in the future, so that they may influence the CPU's decision-making in the offseason.

 

[BigBucs]

Mark Dominic not signing them old mfers.

 

[St. Francisco]

I've taken some time to think about the Arizona situation. The defensive tackle move is stupid, but I think I actually like the Benson signing now from a realistic perspective. Beanie Wells failed as the team's premiere back, rushing for just over 800 yards to lead the nation's 26th ranked rushing attack. Williams suffered a season-ending injury in his rookie year, so his health is a concern going forward. Bringing in a proven veteran like Benson not only gives the team someone to share the load with Williams, but also provides a nice insurance policy should he be injured again. Addai and Benson will both get the lion's share of the carries with their new teams, but the young guys behind them with A potential will progress fast enough to make that a one year anomaly.

So, amongst the 23 free agents I did in the first eight teams, I'll call Fred Robbins the only bad decision.

 

[St. Francisco]

KANSAS CITY CHIEFS

No players signed


INDIANAPOLIS COLTS

Signed:
HB Ronnie Brown, 79 OVR, B POT, 30 yrs. old
CB Shawntae Spencer, 77 OVR, B POT, 30 yrs. old

Analysis:
A quick look might have you shaking your head at Indy's decision to let Addai go, and sign Brown...but the numbers tell a different story. Delone Carter (77 OVR, A POT) is the future of the team at runningback, but not quite ready to take the full load. Addai wanted too much money, eventually signing a five-year deal with Buffalo. Brown comes much cheaper with a two-year deal, and while he will start in year one, will likely fall to second string in 2013. Spencer will come in probably as the nickelback, but could be the #2 guy ahead of Jason Allen (77 OVR, B POT). It's a good pick-up, adding talent to a pass defense that ranked a pedestrian 17th in 2011.


DALLAS COWBOYS

Signed:
SS Dashon Goldson, 78 OVR, B POT, 27 yrs. old

Analysis:
Goldson had solid seasons in 2009 and 2010 as a starter in San Francisco before being relegated to the bench in 2011. Dallas signs him to a five-year deal, and gets their starter at safety for a good while. Solid signing.


MIAMI DOLPHINS

Signed:
RT Kareem McKenzie, 91 OVR, A POT, 33 yrs. old
QB Matt Hasselbeck, 81 OVR, B POT, 36 yrs. old

Analysis:
Miami gets the gem of free agency in McKenzie, who gives Miami one of the best looking o-lines on paper. I also really like the signing of Hasselbeck, who is the only QB on the roster. What will truly be interesting to see is if the team will still seek out a QB if one is available in the draft. Let's hope they do (but based upon what people have seen, I don't have my hopes up).


PHILADELPHIA EAGLES

Signed:
FS Bob Sanders, 78 OVR, B POT, 30 yrs. old

Analysis:
Eh, I don't like it. Sanders represents a minor upgrade over Kurt Coleman (76 OVR, B POT), but Coleman is six years his junior...that means his B potential is worth more in terms of progression. I'm marking this down with Robbins as the second bad CPU signing, although I suppose it's not that unrealistic. Sanders is a great player aside from his injuries.


ATLANTA FALCONS

No players signed


SAN FRANCISCO 49ERS

Signed:
LG Brian Waters, 86 OVR, A POT, 35 yrs. old
K Adam Vinatieri, 85 OVR, A POT, 39 yrs. old
CB Carlos Rogers, 80 OVR, B POT, 31 yrs. old
QB Donovan McNabb, 78 OVR, B POT, 35 yrs. old

Analysis:
Waters comes in as the undisputed starter at right guard, and Vinatieri is the new kicker after the team released David Akers. Carlos Rogers was not initially re-signed with the team, but was later signed to a five-year deal in free agency. Not sure why the team wouldn't have just re-signed him during the re-signing period. As for McNabb, the move is a decent one. Alex Smith is finally gone, and Kaepernick (77 OVR, B POT) is still young. McNabb could start right away, or perhaps play back up if the team lands a coveted QB in the draft. If they don't draft QB, I see Kaepernick progressing enough to start in 2013.


NEW YORK GIANTS

No players signed

 

[St. Francisco]

JACKSONVILLE JAGUARS

No players signed


NEW YORK JETS

Signed:
DE Shaun Ellis, 84 OVR, A POT, 35 yrs. old
LG Rob Sims, 84 OVR, B POT, 28 yrs. old
DT Anthony Adams, 82 OVR, B POT, 32 yrs. old
FS Abram Elam, 81 OVR, 30 yrs. old
DE Adam Carriker, 77 OVR, B POT, 28 yrs. old

Analysis:
For such a talented team to go 5-11, it's nice to see them make some moves in free agency. Ellis and Elam return to the team for their second time in their careers, and will both be starters. Sims is the only left guard on the roster, so that's a nice pick-up. And then we come to Anthony Adams, the third questionable CPU decision so far. The Jets' 3-4 defense allows for only one starter at defensive tackle, and Sione Pouha (81 OVR, B POT) is already on the roster. It doesn't make any sense, and just serves to further illustrate that the CPU is really going hard on the OVR rating to determine who to sign. With that being said, Carriker is probably the most interesting signing I've seen yet. He comes in as the fourth best defensive end on the roster, but is young enough to progress into a starting spot perhaps. From a realistic stand point, I like it. The Jets take a chance on a former first round pick, hoping he excels with their team. From a Madden perspective, I can't understand why they signed him...maybe they didn't bank on winning the bid on Ellis, who knows.


DETROIT LIONS

No players signed


GREEN BAY PACKERS

Signed:
DE Ryan Pickett, 80 OVR, B POT, 32 yrs. old

Analysis:
Another one of those players who got released at first, but then got re-signed in free agency. Solid signing, nonetheless, as he is the top-rated DE on the roster.


CAROLINA PANTHERS

No players signed


NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS

No players signed


OAKLAND RAIDERS

Signed:
CB Sheldon Brown, 83 OVR, B POT, 33 yrs. old

Analysis:
Nothing wrong with this one. Brown is a nice compliment to Stanford Routt (86 OVR, A POT), and will serve the team well in the short-term as their #2 guy.


ST. LOUIS RAMS

No players signed

 

[EmpireWF]

lol @ The Giants not signing any free agents. It's sorta realistic there. :smug:

 

[St. Francisco]

lol @ The Giants not signing any free agents. It's sorta realistic there. :smug:

I should say that when I put no players signed, I really mean that they didn't sign any of the top 53, which were the only ones I looked at. They probably picked up some lower-rated guys.

 

[St. Francisco]

BALTIMORE RAVENS

Signed:
DT Shaun Rogers, 84 OVR, B POT, 33 yrs. old
WR Lee Evans, 79 OVR, B POT, 31 yrs. old
WR Plaxico Burress, 78 OVR, B POT, 33 yrs. old

Analysis:
Shaun Rogers is a solid upgrade at defensive tackle, and Lee Evans returns to the team for another two years after testing the free agent waters. Burress takes the place of the departed Boldin and will take #2 on the depth chart. Torrey Smith (75 OVR, A POT) is the slot receiver, but will most certainly progress enough to be #1 next year. I have no issues with these pick-ups.


WASHINGTON REDSKINS

Signed:
K Matt Bryant, 84 OVR, B POT, 37 yrs. old
HB Benjarvus Green-Ellis, 82 OVR, B POT, 27 yrs. old
C Olin Kreutz, 81 OVR, B POT, 35 yrs. old
DE Aaron Kampman, 80 OVR, B POT, 32 yrs. old
QB Alex Smith, 77 OVR, B POT, 28 yrs. old

Analysis:
Nothing wrong with Bryant, Kreutz, or Kampman. They all represent solid upgrades at their respective positions, and will be starters next year. The Green-Ellis signing is a decent one, but the five-year deal is a little overkill. Still, he's a decent upgrade over Torain and Helu. The Alex Smith signing is a good one when I first glance it, as they have no QBs on the roster, and might wanna give Smith a spin. It's the five-year contract that leaves me scratching my head. Washington will still likely target a QB in the draft...Smith is a 1-3 year deal at most.


NEW ORLEANS SAINTS

No players signed


SEATTLE SEAHAWKS

Signed:
HB LaDainian Tomlinson, 83 OVR, B POT, 33 yrs. old

Analysis:
Just like Addai in Buffalo and Benson in Arizona, Tomlinson is a good and bad pick-up for the Seahawks. Good because it gives the team a solid guy to share carries with Marshawn Lynch (82 OVR, A POT), but bad because the game will most certainly put L.T. on top of the depth chart ahead of Lynch, until he progresses past Tomlinson.


PITTSBURGH STEELERS

Signed:
CB Terrence McGee, 81 OVR, B POT, 31 yrs. old
CB Andre Goodman, 80 OVR, B POT, 34 yrs. old

Analysis:
Another example of the CPU using OVR ratings to sign. Pittsburgh's top four cornerbacks on the rosters are now all signed to 1-3 year deals, and are all over the age of 30. Leaving a spot for a rookie would have been the smart move...instead, they have an entire secondary of average and aging cornerbacks.


HOUSTON TEXANS

No players signed


TENNESSEE TITANS

Signed:
OLB Keith Bulluck, 82 OVR, B POT, 34 yrs. old
C Eric Heitmann, 81 OVR, B POT, 32 yrs. old

Analysis:
Bulluck returns to the team after a two-year stint in New York and Green Bay as the top-rated OLB on the roster, and Heitmann is the only man on the team at center. Nothing wrong with these two choices.


MINNESOTA VIKINGS

No players signed

 

[St. Francisco]

OVERALL FREE AGENCY ANALYSIS:

If it wasn't clear before, it is now. Just like some have proven in the draft, the computer relies HEAVILY on overall ratings to make their decisions in free agency. However, there weren't too many head-scratching decisions made, which is a refreshing change of pace...I can handle the occasional bonehead move. Overall, I think I'll feel comfortable with allowing the CPU to sign players in free agency as they mostly stay within the realm of realism.

Next up...the draft. The following teams will have their quarterback draft priority set to zero: Cincinnati, Cleveland, Minnesota, Carolina, Tennessee, and Jacksonville. These are the teams with player roles of "QB of the Future" on the roster. I'm also adding Denver and Detroit. Their lower OVR ratings may put the team at risk drafting a QB in the early rounds.

 

[St. Francisco]

Hmmm...on second thought, I don't think I'm gonna do a draft analysis because this guy at OS pretty much has it covered:

http://www.operationsports.com/foru.../506420-cpu-cheating-draft-logic-exposed.html

What I WILL do is look at the overall ratings of the rookies, then go back to NCAA and take a look at their ratings there, see how they're translating.

 

[FirstTimer]

Awesome stuff St. Fran.

 

[FirstTimer]

Here's a fix Empire found over at OS St. Fran. Give this a try.

I DID IT!!!

A hands-off, imported draft where kickers and punters aren't first round picks, teams with rising star QBs don't take a new one, and the whole thing took me less than ten minutes to prep.

The rules: All draft priorities default at 100. All kickers and punters moved to 0 priority. Teams with "future star" at QB get a QB priority of 0.

That's it. That's all it took!

Here was the top ten list:

QB Wheeden
QB Luck
P Butler
SS Barron
ROLB Bradham
RE Brown
QB Lindley
LT Potter
RT Lawrence.
FS Jackson

Bengals have a rising star QB, so they skipped Wheeden, Luck, and Butler to take SS Barron with the first pick. Bills lost Fitzpatrick to the Raiders, so they took QB Wheeden. Seahawks were a mess, so they took QB Luck. FS Jackson, projected to be in the top ten, fell all the way to 17.

And Punter Drew Butler, projected to go number three? NEVER DRAFTED. At all. One kicker was taken in the 7th round. That's it!

The first round draft picks:

Bengals: SS Mark Barron, Alabama
Bills: QB Brandon Wheeden, OK State (Lost Fitzpatrick to Raiders)
Seahawks: QB Andrew Luck, Stanford
Raiders: ROLB Nigel Bradham, Florida State
Browns: RE Vince Browne, Northwestern
Buccs: LT Nate Botter, Boise State
Panthers: RT Addison Lawrence (Note they skipped QB Lindley. Don't need him!)
Dolphins: QB Ryan Lindley, San Diego State
Lions: QB Landry Jones, Oklahoma (Stafford is injury prone and underperforming)
Giants: LT Donald Stevenson, Oklahoma
Vikings: SS Brandon Taylor, LSU
49ers: WR Alshon Jeffery, South Carolina
Jaguars: WR Devier Posey, Ohio State
Eagles: MLB Jerry Franklins
Cowboys: SS George Iloka, Boise State
Saints: RT Mark Asper, Oregon
Chiefs: FS Damien Jackson, Ole Miss (Fell out of the top 10!)
Ravens: WR Derek Moye, Penn State
Texans: FS Harrison Smith, Notre Dame
Chargers: DT Tydreke Powell, North Carolina
Cardinals: HB Trent Richardson, Alahama
Patriots: RE Shea McClellin, Boise State
Rams: FS Kenny Tate, Maryland
Colts: CB Jamell Fleming, Oklahoma
Jets: LOLB Audie Cole, North Carolina State (projected 2nd round)
Packers: FS Robert Lester, Alabama
Broncos: HB Marc Tyler, USC
Bears: DT Marcus Forston, Miami (projected 2nd round)
Redskins: QB Dominique Davis, East Carolina
Titans: LOLB Steven Johnson, Kansas (projected 2nd round)
Steelers: FS Sam Proctor, Oklahoma
Falcons: FS Neiko Thorpe, Auburn

(projected 1st rounder HB Polk fell to around the 10th pick of the second round).

Conclusions: It works, and takes 10 minutes to implement!