Are NBA Draft Picks Overvalued?

[FedEx227]

Solid piece from Ziller at SBNation. Check it out.

http://www.sbnation.com/nba/2013/8/5/4589966/nba-draft-picks-rebuilding-tanking-sixers-mark-cuban

In explaining the Mavericks' sudden mediocrity cycle, Mark Cuban implied that perhaps too many teams are trying to rebuild from scratch. Is that making the full rebuild inefficient?

 

[NAHSTE]

Without even reading it, though I will because it sounds interesting, I would say I agree with the hypothesis.

Not every team that tries to clear cap space and build through the draft is going to better their position, most will just end up right back where they started 3-4 years later.

 

[FedEx227]

Cuban's basic premise is that it's become like Moneyball in the sense that now everybody knows draft picks are a good value... so they aren't anymore. Everyone is trying to dump veterans for draft picks and eventually it becomes so clouded that it's not really an efficient way to build a team.

 

[LiquidLarry2GhostWF]

Didn't I try and tell you this in the chatbox a month ago?

 

[FedEx227]

Didn't I try and tell you this in the chatbox a month ago?

Sure you did. And I still don't think it's the right plan. The article is essentially Mark Cuban defending signing Devin Harris and Monta Ellis and not rebuilding to try to win a title.

I think, regardless of the inefficiency, the tank and acquire draft pick assets plans works far better.

You still can't wrap your head around the fact that's how Houston, Oklahoma City and Golden State built their teams (acquiring cheap assets to leave space for FA open, trading draft picks to acquire said "stars", making high profile first-round picks) which continues to cause the confusion in this case. I think it's a good piece on how other teams are doing business and trying to find the more beneficent way to build a winner, I'm just not sure it's going to go anywhere.

 

[Argath]

Sure you did. And I still don't think it's the right plan. The article is essentially Mark Cuban defending signing Devin Harris and Monta Ellis and not rebuilding to try to win a title.

I think, regardless of the inefficiency, the tank and acquire draft pick assets plans works far better.

You still can't wrap your head around the fact that's how Houston, Oklahoma City and Golden State built their teams (acquiring cheap assets to leave space for FA open, trading draft picks to acquire said "stars", making high profile first-round picks) which continues to cause the confusion in this case. I think it's a good piece on how other teams are doing business and trying to find the more beneficent way to build a winner, I'm just not sure it's going to go anywhere.

I am trying to wrap my head around this last paragraph. So you're saying if a team trades a draft pick/youth player and as a result are able to sign acquire a star (either through trade or FA), that equals building through the draft?

Because that's not how it works.

 

[FedEx227]

Christ people. I never said they built through the god damn draft, I said they built through acquiring draft picks or acquiring cheap, tradeable talent through the draft.

October 27, 2012: Traded by the Oklahoma City Thunder with Cole Aldrich, Daequan Cook and Lazar Hayward to the Houston Rockets for Jeremy Lamb, Kevin Martin, a 2013 1st round draft pick (Steven Adams), a future 1st round draft pick and a future 2nd round draft pick.

Recent draftee and 3 picks.

per http://www.sbnation.com/nba/2013/7/...d-houston-rockets-daryl-morey-nba-free-agency

Kevin Martin came in a massive 2010 trade deadline deal where the Rockets took advantage of the Knicks' desperation to clear cap space in 2010. The main pieces: Houston sent McGrady to the Knicks and Carl Landry to the Kings and got back Martin, Jordan Hill and the option to swap picks with the Knicks in 2011 and 2012. Landry had been selected in the second round of the 2007 NBA Draft, showing Houston's consistent ability to find talent where other teams failed. That ability got them Martin.

Jeremy Lamb was selected with a pick the Rockets traded up two slots to get, sending the Bucks Samuel Dalembert. But Houston felt they could take Lamb in part because they had two other first-round picks. One, used on Royce White, was one of the two picks from the Knicks in the 2010 blockbuster. Another, used on Terrence Jones, came from the Timberwolves for Chase Budinger, a decent, but replaceable contributor.

One first-round pick came from the Raptors in the deal for Lowry. Toronto surrendered a pick that was top-3 protected in 2013, top-2 protected in 2014 and 2015, top-1 protected in 2016 and 2017 and unprotected in 2018. However, the Rockets would only get the pick if it fell in the lottery, meaning they essentially guaranteed themselves a high selection. The Rockets had initially acquired Lowry, a backup in Memphis, in 2009 in a deal involving starting point guard Rafer Alston. Many wondered about that deal at the time, but Lowry gave Houston several good years and eventually helped deliver Harden.

The other first-round pick was initially from Dallas. The Mavericks traded it to the Lakers in the 2011 deal for Lamar Odom that worked out poorly, and the Lakers moved it on to Houston as compensation for taking on Derek Fisher in a 2012 trade deadline deal for ... you guessed it, Jordan Hill. The pick is top-20 protected from 2012 to 2017.

The 2013 second-round pick was, ironically, a Thunder pick for a while, as they received it for dumping Byron Mullens on the Bobcats. However, the Thunder lost the pick as a result of a dispute with Boston over Jeff Green's medical history. The Celtics eventually moved the selection to Houston as part of a sign-and-trade arrangement to land Courtney Lee.

Look at how a team filled with veterans slowly morphed into a team with a ton of additional, easily tradeable draft picks and how all of those suddenly morphed into Dwight Howard and James Harden.

It's not building through the draft, it's using the draft and draft picks to your advantage to make sure you keep your salaries low and your assets high.

 

[LiquidLarry2GhostWF]

Christ people. I never said they built through the god damn draft, I said they built through acquiring draft picks or acquiring cheap, tradeable talent through the draft.



Recent draftee and 3 picks.

per http://www.sbnation.com/nba/2013/7/...d-houston-rockets-daryl-morey-nba-free-agency

Look at how a team filled with veterans slowly morphed into a team with a ton of additional, easily tradeable draft picks and how all of those suddenly morphed into Dwight Howard and James Harden.

It's not building through the draft, it's using the draft and draft picks to your advantage to make sure you keep your salaries low and your assets high.

What a terrible post.

You're using essentially three generations of rostering to get to the end result. You can put any team under the same dumb flow chart and get the same result of how they got to each player on their roster.

 

[FedEx227]

So that's your counter? Seriously?

When did you become such a giant piece of shit? Seriously. I realize you watch 7 NBA games a year and you're a self-appointed expert of everything but if you aren't going to even counter with any type of tangible thought keep your mouth shut.

Once more if you actually read the fucking posts instead of immediately generalizing that since I wrote it, it must be stupid realize that 90% of the post is lifted from a fairly well publicized, far better researched SB Nation article from Mike Prada, who probably is a bit more familiar with how the NBA functions than you are, but don't let that get in the way of being a total fuck as usual.

It's not "my theory" or "my idea" it's been well publicized the lengths the Rockets went to create a roster flexible enough to bring in a star via trade and acquire a star via FA. Isn't that the point of roster construction and a discussion of building a roster, is going out a few years?

The roster used in the chart was 2008-2009, so apparently "three generations" but you clicked and read the article I'm sure, so you know that:

2008-09, the Rockets' most successful season. This was their roster and salary situation, via StoryTeller's Contracts Page:

Tracy McGrady: $20.37 million, contract expires in 2010

Yao Ming: $15.07 million, contract expires in 2011

Ron Artest: $7.4 million, contract expires in 2009

Shane Battier: $6.37 million, contract expires in 2011

Brian Cook: $3.5 million, contract expires in 2010

Luis Scola: $3.1 million, contract expires in 2010

Carl Landry: $3 million, team option for 2011

Brent Barry: $1.9 million, contract expires in 2010

Chuck Hayes: $1.8 million, team option for 2011

Kyle Lowry: $1.2 million, rookie contract ended in 2010

Aaron Brooks: $1.045 million, rookie contract ended in 2012

Dikembe Mutombo, Von Wafer, Joey Dorsey, James White: All minimum contracts

 

[LiquidLarry2GhostWF]

So that's your counter? Seriously?

When did you become such a giant piece of shit? Seriously. I realize you watch 7 NBA games a year and you're a self-appointed expert of everything but if you aren't going to even counter with any type of tangible thought keep your mouth shut.

Once more if you actually read the fucking posts instead of immediately generalizing that since I wrote it, it must be stupid realize that 90% of the post is lifted from a fairly well publicized, far better researched SB Nation article from Mike Prada, who probably is a bit more familiar with how the NBA functions than you are, but don't let that get in the way of being a total fuck as usual.

Don't be insulted and butt hurt because your point is idiotic and nonsensical on the matter and has continued to be for over a month now. Its not that I "don't get it"...its just your point is terrible. What tangible thoughts do you need...you aren't actually making a point that makes sense nor is tangible to real life.

Prada's article is equally as silly, trying to slant the idea that landing Dwight Howard and James Harden was some stroke of genius "years in the making" by playing Six Degrees of Kevin Bacon with roster pieces from 4-5 years ago...and showing the parts that lead to the team as will be constructed in 2013-14. It wasn't some ultimate grand finale for Morey. You could take any team in the NBA and play the same Six Degrees game with it.

 

[FedEx227]

Fine.

Play Six Degrees with another team.

 

[NAHSTE]

The difference being other teams didn't land two top 20 players as a result of their mediocrity.

Hawks are about to try the Morey plan I feel, tread some water collecting affordable/movable assets so if and when a big piece falls in your lap (Kevin Love I guess?) you can pull the trigger. TBD how it works out in three years.

 

[Warner2BruceTD]

Interesting.

Are there other examples of this working (or even being attempted)? Seems to me it's the only way for the NBA middle of the pack purgatory teams to get out of that cycle.

With that said, if Howard doesn't sign with Houston, then what? Hold off that salary slot until next year by signing a bunch of one year deals?

I would figure at some point, when other teams copy this, there will be fewer and fewer teams willing to trade for these draft picks. Then what?

 

[FedEx227]

It's always up in the air, there is no perfect way to build a winning team in the NBA outside of getting really lucky. The point is the Rockets set themselves up to get lucky.

And Warner, to your last point, that's what Cuban is saying in the article. He went all in with this model after they won the title, he didn't get Howard or Williams so he had to sign Monta Ellis and now he's saying that the model doesn't work because everyone's trying to do it. There's some validity to that for sure.

 

[Warner2BruceTD]

Must make Monta Ellis feel like a million bucks when his owner says publicly that "I had to sign Monta Ellis. Sigh."

 

[NAHSTE]

There are a lot of teams that try the cap space model every year and get left standing at the altar by the big name free agents. For teams like Atlanta, Sacramento, New Orleans, etc. cap space is essentially useless.

As for early draft picks, they are really only going to help you turn things around if you can A. get lucky in the lotto during the rare season that it includes a bonafide superstar and B. convince the superstar you draft to stick around past his rookie deal.

 

[LiquidLarry2GhostWF]

It's always up in the air, there is no perfect way to build a winning team in the NBA outside of getting really lucky. The point is the Rockets set themselves up to get lucky.

And Warner, to your last point, that's what Cuban is saying in the article. He went all in with this model after they won the title, he didn't get Howard or Williams so he had to sign Monta Ellis and now he's saying that the model doesn't work because everyone's trying to do it. There's some validity to that for sure.

A few years ago, The Nets were doing the same thing...to get LeBron James. But, so where the Heat....the Knicks...and a few other teams...

Cuban's point flies in the face of your idea...sure, you can point to Houston and say it was a great grand scheme (I disagree, but whatever), but for every Houston, there are numerous other teams that did the same thing and acquired no asset for their trouble. In this case, look at The Lakers Hawks, and Mavericks, with a team like Golden State also in the mix. Is it really a "good way to build a franchise" if that way is to essentially wait annually for a 20% chance of acquiring a star player? Its similar to the same notion of teams tanking or sucking every year to build up the young cheap talent...then you just become the Kings when you're trying to be the Thunder.

 

[FedEx227]

And they are trying to make it more beneficial for stars to stick with their teams in the new CBA. One of the big driving forces for guys leaving is wanting to go either to a "major" market or play with their buddies and other superstars. The new CBA makes it more difficult to do the buddy thing unless guys get together and take huge pay cuts and the thought is the major markets will be bogged down with superstars already that they can't bring on anymore. The Lakers for example won't have enough flexibility to get a superstar for quite a few years.

 

[FedEx227]

A few years ago, The Nets were doing the same thing...to get LeBron James. But, so where the Heat....the Knicks...and a few other teams...

Cuban's point flies in the face of your idea...sure, you can point to Houston and say it was a great grand scheme (I disagree, but whatever), but for every Houston, there are numerous other teams that did the same thing and acquired no asset for their trouble. In this case, look at The Lakers Hawks, and Mavericks, with a team like Golden State also in the mix. Is it really a "good way to build a franchise" if that way is to essentially wait annually for a 20% chance of acquiring a star player? Its similar to the same notion of teams tanking or sucking every year to build up the young cheap talent...then you just become the Kings when you're trying to be the Thunder.

You added the part about the Thunder and I think that's key. You can become the Kings, but you can also become the Thunder.

Roster construction in the NBA is weird. It's super weird and it's hard unless you have a top 5 player.

I think, yeah, it's hard to say it's a great way to build a franchise if you are waiting every year for a 20% chance of grabbing a star player but I'm not sure signing or trading for a bunch of guys (and still not having one of those top 5s) to give yourself a 20% chance of winning the title is a great idea either.

 

[Glenbino]

And they are trying to make it more beneficial for stars to stick with their teams in the new CBA. One of the big driving forces for guys leaving is wanting to go either to a "major" market or play with their buddies and other superstars. The new CBA makes it more difficult to do the buddy thing unless guys get together and take huge pay cuts and the thought is the major markets will be bogged down with superstars already that they can't bring on anymore. The Lakers for example won't have enough flexibility to get a superstar for quite a few years.

I mean... they could.

It would just take sitting :kobe: and amnestying his contract and moving Pau.

I think luring a big name guy there to play with the corpse of Steve Nash and the last couple years of Kobe (if he didn't bounce when they void his current deal) would be next to impossible. Especially with so many other teams that have been gearing up for the next few years of FAs and drafts.