Are NBA Draft Picks Overvalued?

[LiquidLarry2GhostWF]

You added the part about the Thunder and I think that's key. You can become the Kings, but you can also become the Thunder.

Roster construction in the NBA is weird. It's super weird and it's hard unless you have a top 5 player.

I think, yeah, it's hard to say it's a great way to build a franchise if you are waiting every year for a 20% chance of grabbing a star player but I'm not sure signing or trading for a bunch of guys (and still not having one of those top 5s) to give yourself a 20% chance of winning the title is a great idea either.

It keeps you competitive, butts in seats, and you're in the playoffs with a chance to win every year. Outside of maybe two or three fanbases in the league (the Lakers, Celtics), they'll all take that over consistent mediocrity or worse, constant tanking.

 

[FedEx227]

I agree with the first two parts but not the "in the playoffs with a chance to win every year". It's fairly obvious at the beginning of each playoff series the 2-3 teams (at most) who have a legitimate chance at winning the NBA title.

But those first two points lead a lot of teams into NBA hell. Can't be bad enough and not have anyone come to our games, but we never have a legitimate chance of becoming a title contender. That's where the Rockets model could be an inspiration. They stayed above water, kept some solid assets on the table and got lucky Harden became available after the CBA was signed. Thunder and Golden State, they went all out tank and while it sucked for awhile, it worked out real well for them.

Hard to say if there's any perfect way of doing it. You could really throw your hands up in the air and say "you gotta get lucky and get a star" but that's no fun.

 

[FedEx227]

I mean... they could.

It would just take sitting :kobe: and amnestying his contract and moving Pau.

I think luring a big name guy there to play with the corpse of Steve Nash and the last couple years of Kobe (if he didn't bounce when they void his current deal) would be next to impossible. Especially with so many other teams that have been gearing up for the next few years of FAs and drafts.

The Kobe amnesty would open them up tremendously. It's the elephant in the room but I just can't fathom them doing it.

 

[LiquidLarry2GhostWF]

I agree with the first two parts but not the "in the playoffs with a chance to win every year". It's fairly obvious at the beginning of each playoff series the 2-3 teams (at most) who have a legitimate chance at winning the NBA title.

Depends on how the ball bounces...The Heat are the favorites by far...if the Heat somehow lose (say...to Indiana in the second round or something flukey like that)...it opens up the entire field.

I'd rather take that 20% or even 10% chance at a title over constantly hoping for that lightening in a bottle where you land that big name free agent star. I mean, are we talking about the genius of Daryl Morey right now if the Magic don't cock block the Nets from acquiring Dwight Howard a year ago by taking a far lesser deal?

As a Nets fan...I can tell you without question...I'd rather be the Nets than the Hawks (no offense, NAHSTE).

 

[FedEx227]

Regardless of Howard, I still think he did a great job of getting James Harden and finding great value in Chandler Parsons but I hear you.

 

[LiquidLarry2GhostWF]

Regardless of Howard, I still think he did a great job of getting James Harden and finding great value in Chandler Parsons.

He did a fine job getting Harden, but again, stuff like that is happenstance. James Harden not coming to terms with the Thunder after saying for years he'll settle for less by near deadline. Other trades falling through earlier (IIRC, Charlotte thought they had Harden for the #2 pick in that year's draft where Oklahoma City would have taken Bradley Beal). Phoenix was also involved in some trade shenanigans for Harden but it fell through or the Thunder took the Rockets deal, I don't recall the details. I give him credit for getting the players available and taking advantage of circumstance...but its not something that was drawn up as a grand scheme...which is what your Prada article was trying to say...it was some master plan by Morey.

 

[Glenbino]

But Morey set himself up to make the Harden deal by stockpiling the pieces to make a "better" deal than Charlotte or Phoenix.

Is it a foolproof plan? No. In fact, if Morey was only able to add Lin and Asik last season then he's probably out of a job right now.

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[LiquidLarry2GhostWF]

But Morey set himself up to make the Harden deal by stockpiling the pieces to make a "better" deal than Charlotte or Phoenix.

Is it a foolproof plan? No. In fact, if Morey was only able to add Lin and Asik last season then he's probably out of a job right now.

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The Charlotte deal was much much earlier in the process...pre draft. The Suns pulled out of the deal over a week before Harden was traded to Houston...IIRC, the rumored trade was Gortat as the big contract, Jared Dudley, and Markeiff Morris with picks thrown in...but as I said, Phoenix pulled out.

So, did Morey set himself up? Not really. Its happenstance. He gets credit for acquiring Harden...but lets not turn this into a crowning of a three to four year process to put together THIS roster or he was some mastermind that went OVER THE TOP of several teams to acquire James Harden, because that is being disingenuous and factually incorrect.

 

[Kuzzy Powers]

Undervalued. Teams seem way too willing to part with late first round picks and second round picks.

I didnt read the article btw :tiptoe:

 

[Glenbino]

The Charlotte deal was much much earlier in the process...pre draft. The Suns pulled out of the deal over a week before Harden was traded to Houston...IIRC, the rumored trade was Gortat as the big contract, Jared Dudley, and Markeiff Morris with picks thrown in...but as I said, Phoenix pulled out.

So, did Morey set himself up? Not really. Its happenstance. He gets credit for acquiring Harden...but lets not turn this into a crowning of a three to four year process to put together THIS roster or he was some mastermind that went OVER THE TOP of several teams to acquire James Harden, because that is being disingenuous and factually incorrect.

Except Morey had been pursing Pau Gasol for years using the same philosophy and come up short.

Morey wasn't targeting Harden per se but he had a plan to bring a star to Houston via trade all along.

Sometimes it works, sometimes it doesn't. A lot of the success teams have using this strategy is what they're able to do in the mid 1st and later (Parsons, Ibaka) which is why you see teams with flawed draft approaches like the Kings try it and fail.

I still find it the favorable strategy for teams that can't pay the tax though when you compare it to what is happening in Detroit where they have pushed themselves to the cap limit with contracts they have no chance of unloading and still aren't even in the top half of the Eastern Conference.

 

[Senser81]

Fine.

Play Six Degrees with another team.

I don't have the flow chart in front of me, but I remember Jerry Krause taking the money he paid to Jordan and Pippen and Six Degrees later he was paying that money to Eddie Robinson and Larry Hughes.

The NBA draft is pretty awesome, but its just like free agency. On one hand, any retard can be an NBA scout...most of the superstars in the NBA were already labeled "NBA superstar" in college or even high school. On the other hand, the talent level in an NBA draft is almost entirely dependent on the top 3 or 4 guys, and that talent level fluctuates wildly from year to year...somewhat like the free agency market. Instead of looking at current NBA stars and when their contracts expire, teams look at when certain guys will enter the draft and then try to land a top pick for that year. I view the draft and free agency as being similar "crapshoots", where you can try to position yourself to acquire a player, but there is no guarantee...and sometimes the result is paying big money to Monta Ellis or using a high draft pick on Michael Beasley.

I don't think draft picks are "good value", but teams would rather be stuck with draft picks than with overpriced veteran salaries, so I guess thats something. I don't think that aspect is really "how to build a team" but rather "how not to totally screw yourself over". So the point isn't "teams should acquire draft picks so they can get good players", its really "teams shouldn't overspend on mediocre free agents".

A couple unrelated thoughts. I was looking at who the great 2nd round NBA draft picks were in NBA history....I came up with Jerome Kersey and a bunch of utter shit. Its pretty amazing how talent-poor the NBA draft is.

I think David Stern's overexpansion of the NBA has made "team building" an exercise in futility. There just isn't enough elite players in the world to support so many teams. Some NBA teams can go 7-8 years without ever acquiring a player of mere all-star ability, much less an elite player. I think if the NBA were to cut about half the teams, it would be easier to build through the draft because you aren't spreading out the 3-4 good players amongst 30 teams every year.

EDIT: When you respond to my post, just be forewarned that I will fight every nigger here.

 

[Warner2BruceTD]

I think David Stern's overexpansion of the NBA has made "team building" an exercise in futility. There just isn't enough elite players in the world to support so many teams. Some NBA teams can go 7-8 years without ever acquiring a player of mere all-star ability, much less an elite player. I think if the NBA were to cut about half the teams, it would be easier to build through the draft because you aren't spreading out the 3-4 good players amongst 30 teams every year.

I don't know about cutting the league in half, but I agree 100% that there are too many teams. I don't think anybody reasonable would disagree. It's too hard to turn things around.

NFL is right on the cusp of this, but only because there aren't enough good QB's to support 32 teams. A third of the starters stink and nobody has good backups anymore except when guys like Matt Hasselbeck feel like sticking around forever.

But back on topic, I think this "tread water" strategy is best for these middle class teams. It's not easy to be terrible on purpose in hopes of landing a true superstar. You turn off the fanbase and it can take a decade (or more) to crawl out.

 

[Senser81]

NFL is right on the cusp of this, but only because there aren't enough good QB's to support 32 teams. A third of the starters stink and nobody has good backups anymore except when guys like Matt Hasselbeck feel like sticking around forever.

Agree with this. I think 28 teams was stretching it for QBs, 32 is too much because even if all the starting QBs are healthy, you still have guys like Matt Cassel starting. The NFL has tried to get around this by adjusting the rules in such a way that even a below-average QB can be effective.

 

[Senser81]

Xixak...what gives?

 

[FedEx227]

A couple unrelated thoughts. I was looking at who the great 2nd round NBA draft picks were in NBA history....I came up with Jerome Kersey and a bunch of utter shit. Its pretty amazing how talent-poor the NBA draft is.

There's a ton of shit but there's some success stories — Monta Ellis, Marc Gasol, Paul Milsap, Manu, Mark Price, Michael Redd, Rashard Lewis, Carlos Boozer, Jeff Hornacek, Gilbert Arenas, Rodman, Nick Van Exel, Antonio Davis.

Edit: I'll respond to your other parts in a little bit, I think I may as well do some work first.

 

[Senser81]

There's a ton of shit but there's some success stories — Monta Ellis, Marc Gasol, Paul Milsap, Manu, Mark Price, Michael Redd, Rashard Lewis, Carlos Boozer, Jeff Hornacek, Gilbert Arenas, Rodman, Nick Van Exel, Antonio Davis.

Edit: I'll respond to your other parts in a little bit, I think I may as well do some work first.

 

[Xixak]

Xixak...what gives?

What?

I'm not a huge fan of tanking. I'm more of an accumulate assets and flip them for better assets type of guy. So I like the strategies that Danny Ainge, Daryl Morey and Masai Ujiri have been using. They're less risky and have the potential to be more effective.

Look at the Raptors from 03-06 (#4, #8, #7, and #1), zero playoff series wins. Or the Kings and Wolves since 08, zero playoff appearances despite several high lottery picks. Tanking for high picks is basically building your franchise on luck.

That being said I am a fan of accumulating picks via trade because they are very useful when trying to acquire players. If Houston doesn't flip Lowry to Toronto for the 2013 1st they probably don't have Harden or D12 right now.

 

[Senser81]

What?

You neg repped me. Why?

 

[Xixak]

Undervalued. Teams seem way too willing to part with late first round picks and second round picks.

I didnt read the article btw :tiptoe:

This is true also, and year after year smart teams prove that great players can be had outside of the lottery.

 

[Xixak]

You neg repped me. Why?

I did? What post was it?

Edit: Nvm I see it now, it's because of the last line in your post.