Braun's 2014 level of performance

[Goober]

I'm going to say same as always. He'll simply use a PED supplier who can keep his/her mouth shut. Not like they're going to catch him on a test.

Oh so you mean like when they did catch him, before he even was subject to more frequent testing? :yao:

 

[G-men]

Steroids are used in all athletics from high school to Olympics to professionals. These things significantly change your body in positive ways and if taken correctly there are very little side effects. They also help you mentally as well. Everyone at these levels are already superior athletes and these things just improve everything. Every athlete is looking for a little boost but to risk you whole career for a little boost logically is incredibly dumb. Which is not out of the question i guess. I think once these guys are on them for a bit and see the results...they cant stay away.

It also doesn't help when the guy competing for your job is taking them...sort of almost makes you take them as well.

Is it though? We've seen steroids turn fringe guys into All Stars getting huge contracts. If a guy takes them, has one good year, and then cashes in, it seems like the best investment in sports outside of being naturally a superstar.

 

[Tailback U]

I think he will decline a little bit but still be All-Star Caliber. He has been so consistent his entire career, that is what really makes him so good. Now he will go through more slumps just like everyone else.

There is a mental comedown when you stop using PEDs that becomes a factor as well.

My guess is that he has been cycling on and off of this stuff for a long time. I think all of this combined with the media and teammate reactions is going to damage him. He'll still be good, but I think he'll "only" hit about 20-25 home runs next season and that his BA be around .285.

 

[JeremyHight]

I just don't know. Melky Cabrera went from 4+ WAR to 0 after being busted. I don't think Braun's drop will be as dramatic, but I definitely could see him dropping from perennial all star and MVP candidate to being a just another starter.

Steroids don't create talent, he is still going to be a good player. But there is a reason these guys take them. If you really think PEDs mean another 5 HRs and 20 points in the batting average, you are sadly mistaken.

 

[Warner2BruceTD]

I just don't know. Melky Cabrera went from 4+ WAR to 0 after being busted. I don't think Braun's drop will be as dramatic, but I definitely could see him dropping from perennial all star and MVP candidate to being a just another starter.

Steroids don't create talent, he is still going to be a good player. But there is a reason these guys take them. If you really think PEDs mean another 5 HRs and 20 points in the batting average, you are sadly mistaken.

Are you saying you think steroids add more than that, or less?

 

[Warner2BruceTD]

Also, who says he'll definitely be clean moving forward? He may not stop taking whatever he was taking. Or he may move on to something else.

 

[JeremyHight]

Are you saying you think steroids add more than that, or less?

I personally think they add more. Barry Bonds didn't just add 5 homers and 20 points on his batting average when he started using, he went up a great deal. He was also a HoF player beforehand, but that just shows how much they can do.

Look at Mark McGuire. He beat a record that seemed nearly impossible and he wasn't in the prime years of his career either.

If we look recently, Melky Cabrera dropped like 60 points in his BA and over 200 in his OBS, while going from over 30 on his Rbat now being negative.

I don't know how far Braun will drop, but he will definitely drop. This year his WAR dropped by nearly 5 to the lowest point of his career. This is probably his only clean year. The further he gets off the juice, the more his numbers could slide.

 

[Goober]

I personally think they add more. Barry Bonds didn't just add 5 homers and 20 points on his batting average when he started using, he went up a great deal. He was also a HoF player beforehand, but that just shows how much they can do.

Look at Mark McGuire. He beat a record that seemed nearly impossible and he wasn't in the prime years of his career either.

If we look recently, Melky Cabrera dropped like 60 points in his BA and over 200 in his OBS, while going from over 30 on his Rbat now being negative.

I don't know how far Braun will drop, but he will definitely drop. This year his WAR dropped by nearly 5 to the lowest point of his career. This is probably his only clean year. The further he gets off the juice, the more his numbers could slide.

Aren't you a math teacher? :facepalm:

 

[JeremyHight]

Aren't you a math teacher? :facepalm:

Oh sorry, forgot his first year. He was 2.0 that year. This year, he is 2.1.

 

[Goober]

Oh sorry, forgot his first year. He was 2.0 that year. This year, he is 2.1.

And using BR WAR. :dead:

But that wasn't what I was referring to in my original post.

 

[JeremyHight]

And using BR WAR. :dead:

But that wasn't what I was referring to in my original post.

Which site do you prefer?

Baseball Prospectus
2012 6.6
2013 1.9
Lowest of his career and a drop of 4.7

FanGraphs
2012 7.6
2013 1.7
Lowest of his career and a drop of 5.9

Baseball Reference
2012 7.0
2013 2.1
2nd lowest of his career and a drop of 4.9

In any way, it really shows him being a great player after he gets off the PEDs.

 

[dave]

I personally don't think steroids have a big impact on player performance, so I don't think much will be the same.

Barry Bonds would disagree.

 

[Goober]

Which site do you prefer?

Baseball Prospectus
2012 6.6
2013 1.9
Lowest of his career and a drop of 4.7

FanGraphs
2012 7.6
2013 1.7
Lowest of his career and a drop of 5.9

Baseball Reference
2012 7.0
2013 2.1
2nd lowest of his career and a drop of 4.9

In any way, it really shows him being a great player after he gets off the PEDs.

No the point is using a statistic like WAR to compare an injury riddled, suspension shortened season to any other season is ridiculous. Someone familiar with statistics at any level should be able to realize this. Plus you can't just isolate steroids as the only variable that may have impacted Braun's season this year. He has played most of the year with a bruised right thumb, which eventually resulted in a month on the DL. Comments made at the time of the DL trip suggested, he was basically swinging with one hand.

Also assuming this is the only season Braun didn't use steroids is pretty dumb. What evidence is there that he stopped? What evidence is there that he has been using since 2005? None. FWIW ESPN reported he started in 2011.

 

[Goober]

Hey guys why is Mariano Rivera still playing? He only had 0.4 WAR last year, he clearly sucks now. :ramboy:

 

[JeremyHight]

Gooby is always right, he was dead on about how dumb the Dodgers were to sign Puig. :lol:

 

[Warner2BruceTD]

WAR is a cumulative stat, is the point gob is making. So when you play less than half a season, it's going to be lower than usual. Plus when he played he wasn't always 100%.

I don't know what PED's add to a stat line. It's hard to quantify. Plus there are all sorts of different PED's. There many varieties of steroids, which all do different things, let alone HGH and whatever people like Victor Conte are concocting in labs as we speak. Bonds, Sosa, McGwire, Luis Gonzales, they were clearly taking bodybuilder PED's, based on obvious body changes, increased power, etc. You don't see much of that anymore, if at all, because it's a giant red flag these days to walk into spring training looking like a professional wrestler. But I would safely say that those types of PED's add significantly to a stat line, sure. We have some evidence to point to that, all of those guys above saw stat jumps, all saw them late in their careers when the stat line should have went the other direction.

Sprinters take things that give them burst, cyclists look for drugs that increase stamina, somebody like Roger Clemens probably took for recovery & stamina which allowed him to pitch at a high level well into his 40's. Clemens didn't really get any better, he was just able to stay at a high level longer.

We don't know what Braun was taking, we just know he failed a test for raised testosterone. Maybe a steroid, maybe HGH, but to my knowledge (and correct me if i'm wrong) the substance was never identified and/or reported.

If I were a betting man (I am!), i'd say Braun has been taking his entire career. I base that on the PED culture at Miami, as there is a clear & obvious pattern to ex-Miami U baseball players (just look at the Biogenesis list). He's been beating tests his whole life, and i'm not convinced he'll stop. We've seen with other players like ARod, they can't/won't stop. Like Tailback said, it becomes a mental dependency at some point. Plus, these guys are top level athletes and not only have God complexes, but also have jock sniffing doctors/chemists who convince them they can stay ahead of testing. And they usually do. The low percentage of test failures in MLB & especially the NFL is the proof. LOL @ anybody thinking the NFL is nearly as clean as the testing says. Please.

 

[JimLeavy59]

Labs like Biogenesis will always be ahead of the testing done by the NFL, MLB, and the NBA. I'd personally rather see these leagues regulate on PED's. And honestly its hard not to believe Braun wasn't taking his entire career The U is a dirty program.

 

[Goober]

Gooby is always right, he was dead on about how dumb the Dodgers were to sign Puig. :lol:

Relevant post chief.

 

[NAHSTE]

Bump this shit, like they do in the future

 

[Pitty]

Bump this shit, like they do in the futre