Breaking Down The Numbers Of UFC 102

[CrimsonGhost56]

oh, what happened to Penn/Diego fighting as a the main event for the free card?

oh well, that blows, UFC needs to start breaking off some free shows for the fans

well Penn was rumored to fight at UFC 105 which is in England and will most likely be free. Penn has come out and said he doesnt want to fight overseas cause the payday isnt as big. Rampage/Rashad hasnt been confirmed yet for UFC 107 but thats where the fight has to be since its shortly after TUF 10 ends and its in Memphis where Rampage grew up

 

[Warner2BruceTD]

Also, when it comes to 98, don't forget that Hughes/Serra was considered the bigger fight and was more heavily pushed. 104 has nothing underneath with that level of interest. And Rashad is a bigger star than Shogun.

 

[Warner2BruceTD]

I thought I read somewhere that Penn agreed to do the European show, and the speculation was that they compensated him very nicely to agree to do so.

I can't remember though.

 

[CrimsonGhost56]

I thought I read somewhere that Penn agreed to do the European show, and the speculation was that they compensated him very nicely to agree to do so.

I can't remember though.

guess it wasnt enough money. i just wonder who is going to headline 105. so far the card pretty much breaks down to

Bisping-Kang (co-main event)
Lil Nog - ?
Dan Hardy - Dong Hyun Kim
and the two TUF 9 winners (Pearson/Wilks) are supposedly on the card

 

[Steel Mamba]

Like I said in the other thread - if the biggest promotion in the sport can't push Machida vs Shogun then the MMA fanbase is really shitty overall and they (UFC) have not truly grown the sport. Well shitty is a strong word, 3-400k are still good numbers, but 104 doing poorly would not be a good indication of a huge following. Yes, they just did millions in buys not long ago, but those obviously are not true numbers of their real following. You judge your true following off the success of your core product. The drama, pro wrestlers, and extremely stacked cards is not your core product because you cannot provide that on a majority basis. Your core product are cards like 104, 102, etc.

Also, it's hard to even say who's buying these PPVs anymore. It's hard to say that the hardcore fans carried card "x" because when looking online it seems like the majority of the hardcore fans just stream the fights off the net. Maybe if the hardcore fans did buy the cards we would see Randy/Nog and Shogun/Machida doing much better numbers.

 

[Warner2BruceTD]

You make an interesting point when it comes to streaming fights (and PPV's in general).

The industry has had a hard time estimating just how many people watch for free.

The boxing people don't think it's a huge problem, because their audience skews older and is less likely to be internet saavy to that degree.

The MMA & wrestling people have not been able to determine just how much of an effect it has on numbers. Some think its significant. Obviously, both feel its a problem, because in the case of UFC & WWE, they have people monitoring the internet and shutting down as many streams as they can.

Personally, I am of the belief that anyone watching a stream had no intentions of purchasing the PPV to begin with, either because they cant afford it, or they just arent that interested. I know thats the case with me. If I want to see it, i'll buy it. If I have lukewarm interest, or my budget is tight that month, I watch online.

 

[Warner2BruceTD]

Like I said in the other thread - if the biggest promotion in the sport can't push Machida vs Shogun then the MMA fanbase is really shitty overall and they (UFC) have not truly grown the sport.

The only problem I have with that statement, is the UFC is about to record their 5th straight year of growth, in terms of both gross revenue, and PPV buys.

In 2004, that fight does 50,000.

Post TUF 2005 it does 100,000.

This year, it will do something like 250,000-400,000.

 

[Warner2BruceTD]

Maybe if the hardcore fans did buy the cards we would see Randy/Nog and Shogun/Machida doing much better numbers.

It's my opinion that roughly 100k "hardcore" MMA fans buy every single major league PPV.

I base this on the two Affliction numbers, which were identical, and clearly didnt draw any casual sports (or UFC) fans.

My brothers & I are great examples.

-I watch everything and anything, unless i'm running short on my budget that month. If I were rich, i'd buy every PPV. As it is, I buy 90% of them. I'm a hardcore MMA fan, part of the 100,000 base.

-Brother #1 is 27, and watches every single UFC PPV with his buddies. He knowledge of the UFC is very good, and he could hold his own in these forums. He even hates Brock Lesnar for being a phony prowrassler. He couldnt name one fighter from Japan, and never heard of any of the PRIDE guys until they came to UFC. He dosent give a shit about Strikeforce or EliteXC or IFL, but will watch & enjoy if i'm watching. He's a hardcore UFC fan, and he's an easy sell, but won't buy everything. He picks and chooses, and might buy 1 out of 3 when it comes to 102, 103, & 104. He definately saw 100 & 101. He'll never buy anything that isnt UFC.

-Brother #2 is 24, and he likes MMA, and dosent really care enough about it to be able to name all the champs or orgs. He'll watch all the "big" fights....Kimbo, Brock, Gina, Chuck, Rampage, and maybe a few of his faves like Anderson Silva or BJ Penn. He's the casual who makes all the difference. He saw 100, he saw 101, but he probably wasnt even aware that 102, 103, or 104 even took place. In fact, I texted him to see if he was watching 102, and he said "There's a UFC tonight?? Who's fighting?".

Brother #1 is the guy Strikeforce needs to grab, and Brother #2 is the guy who really sways these PPV numbers. You need the right mix of stars and hype to get Brother #2 interested, or even aware.

 

[Steel Mamba]

The only problem I have with that statement, is the UFC is about to record their 5th straight year of growth, in terms of both gross revenue, and PPV buys.

In 2004, that fight does 50,000.

Post TUF 2005 it does 100,000.

This year, it will do something like 250,000-400,000.

You're right, I'm just saying that we shouldn't look at those PPVs that did 1mil buys as the new standard. It'll be a long time until they're able to sustain those type of numbers on a consistent basis. Good posts tho you gave some great perspective.

Just one thing that I disagree with you on and that's the amount of hardcore fans, there's gotta be a lot more than 100k. Just look at the amount of people who show up to weigh-ins now everywhere the UFC goes across the nation. Look at the amount of active posters on sites like sherdog or the type of hits mma blogs get. Small time shows with no names on the card are pulling 10k in attendence in certain areas.There's A LOT of hardcore fans, but like you mentioned it's mostly the younger generation who just don't seem too keen on paying for PPVs and would rather stream em.

 

[Warner2BruceTD]

Just one thing that I disagree with you on and that's the amount of hardcore fans, there's gotta be a lot more than 100k.

I actually said this:

It's my opinion that roughly 100k "hardcore" MMA fans buy every single major league PPV.

I don't think you could put a number on the total # of "hardcore" MMA fans, but recent evidence dictates that about 100k of them will pay for a major league PPV. You would've had to have been a "hardcore" to even be aware of the Affliction PPV's, and both did an identical # of buys....100k.

I'm willing to bet that an abnormal percentage of the same people who purchased the first Affliction also purchased the second. And that same core of people buy every UFC event, too. And if Strikeforce did a PPV next month, with zero mainstream hype, those same 100k would buy that, too.

In other words, I think the least amount of buys that a major league, legitimate MMA ppv can do right now is 100k.

Even the PRIDE ppv's from a few years back are consistant with that. Fedor/Coleman did what, 75,000?

What was UFC doing pre-TUF? Anywhere between 50k-120k.

So in the last 5 years or so, MMA has created roughly 25-50k fans who will buy everything that they consider major league.

The point, is it's very, very hard to create that type of loyalty, and very few are loyal to that degree. The key is hooking the casuals, which UFC has done a fantastic job of, to varying degrees per event.

I don't even know what any of this means, but I spend alot of time thinking about it. It facinates me.

 

[KINGOFOOTBALL]

Too many cards. Buying 3-4 PPVs in a 2 month span is nuts for most people.

Hard to build hype or get people aware when a UFC card just passed and another one is 2 weeks away.