T
ThomasTomasz
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From Buster Olney
The Milwaukee Brewers are a small-market team with a big-market mentality, backed by a fan base that has turned out in big numbers and inspired owner Mark Attanasio to think big. The Brewers made the bold midseason play four years ago for CC Sabathia, and then two years ago, Milwaukee aggressively traded some really good young players for Zack Greinke.
So keep all that in mind this winter, when it's possible that the offseason dominoes will fall in a way that puts the Brewers in play for Josh Hamilton, who will be the most noteworthy free-agent position player.
Here's the bottom line: If the Texas Rangers or some other team steps up and stuns the baseball world by giving Hamilton a whopper deal of four-plus years for $100-plus million, then the Brewers will almost certainly would be out of contention for the center fielder.
But if the concerns about Hamilton -- about his ability to stay in the lineup, about his off-field history -- constrain the bidding for the All-Star into conservative offers, that would shift Hamilton's potential deal into the financial neighborhood of the Brewers, who really aren't in a position to give a massive contract to anyone.
Milwaukee's priority going into the offseason is to add two starting pitchers capable of absorbing a lot of innings. But general managers expect a sellers' market for free-agent pitchers, because there are so few options, and because the sport is generally flush with dollars. The bidding for veterans like Kyle Lohse and Edwin Jackson is expected to be robust. Some agents and general managers, for example, believe that even at age 34, Lohse could get a deal in the range of $60-75 million. The Toronto Blue Jays are looking for starting pitching, and so are the Kansas City Royals, Chicago Cubs, Los Angeles Angels, etc.
The Brewers, then, could look to take a different route in trying to improve for 2013. They could target cheaper pitching options and spend their available money to upgrade an offense that was very underrated in 2012. Milwaukee led the National League in runs, because of the greatness of Ryan Braun and Aramis Ramirez, who had an incredible season of 80 extra-base hits and should get a lot of top-10 votes for NL MVP. Norichika Aoki isn't going to win the NL Rookie of the Year, in all likelihood, but he should get placement on ballots after hitting .288 with 81 runs and 30 stolen bases.
So long as the market on Hamilton is conservative, with the Rangers and other teams limiting the number of years and dollars they'd be willing to commit to him, then the Brewers could dangle a deal not very different than others. And Milwaukee would be able to offer something that nobody but the Rangers can: a comfort zone comprised of people whom Hamilton knows well.
Johnny Narron has known Hamilton for 20 years and has served as his mentor and accountability partner as he rebuilt his baseball career, before leaving the Rangers to become the hitting coach of the Brewers last winter. This is what Gerry Fraley wrote last fall about Narron's departure for the Brewers, after Narron was passed over for a job as hitting coach within the Rangers' organization:
Narron accepted that decision. At the same time, Narron and Hamilton talked about the future. Narron wanted to be a hitting coach, but he did not want to abandon Hamilton.
"Go for it," Hamilton told him.
"I wanted to see him get that shot," Hamilton said as he recounted the discussion during the playoffs.
And what of not having Narron at his side?
"It'll happen sometimes," Hamilton said. "I'm ready for it."
Hamilton and Narron had a few more conversations in recent days. Hamilton never wavered. Each time, he told Narron to take the job if it were offered.
"Josh and I have a deep relationship," Narron said. "I feel we have both benefitted from our relationship. When I talked to him about this, he was
extremely excited for me. That helped me feel good about it."
Narron said Hamilton can handle the change. And Narron will not sever the personal tie. Narron said Hamilton can call any time he feels the need. Changing uniforms does not change a relationship.
Jerry Narron, the Milwaukee bench coach, has also known Hamilton for years. As some executives around baseball have prepared for the market this fall, this is what a lot of them lack about Hamilton: information.
They don't have a strong sense of Hamilton's daily struggle, about how much of an issue his past addiction is. With the Narrons in their organization, the Brewers will have more of that information than any other team, besides Texas, to help them make a decision on what kind of risk they feel comfortable with in extending an offer. (Presumably, there will be a lot of behavior clauses built into Hamilton's next contract, as there were for Greinke, who had walked away from baseball in the past.)
If the Brewers added Hamilton, this is what Milwaukee's lineup could look like:
RF Aoki
LF Braun
CF Hamilton
3B Ramirez
1B Corey Hart
2B Rickie Weeks
C Jonathan Lucroy
SS Jean Segura
There are other factors that could make the Brewers attractive to a prospective free agent. They travel fewer miles than any other team -- about 52,000 total -- during the season. They play their home games in a park with a retractable roof, on grass, so the weather is never an issue. They have an excellent atmosphere for home games, because the place is nearly full all the time; Milwaukee drew almost 3 million fans this year. The organization has a reputation for having strong baseball people.
If Hamilton is looking for change -- but also for a place where he can feel comfortable -- the Brewers would have a lot to offer.
If the Brewers spend big money for anyone, it should probably be a pitcher. Not sure if I would commit that amount of money to an older Hamilton, with the questions that will follow him.
