Brushbacks and Knockdowns: The Greatest Baseball Debates of Two Centuries

[dell71]

I just finished reading Brushbacks and Knockdowns: The Greatest Baseball Debates of Two Centuries by Allen Barra. It's eight chapters of the author explaining where he comes down on whatever topic that chapter is about and why. It's pretty interesting. Some of it is timeless (The Babe vs. Ted Williams). Other stuff is dated because the situations have changed since then (it was written during the 2003 season and edited in the weeks just after it ended). In any event, I thought some of this might be good to discuss here and see where you guys are.

At some point, I'd like to touch on all the chapters, but I'll start with the most relevant one to today's game first.

Chapter 6 is entitled "Where Have All the All-Stars Gone?" His basic premise is that the 2003 All-Star is sorely lacking in Hall-of-Fame talent compared to times gone by. He picked a number of older All-Star teams, basically one per era (an era as he describes) and noted the number of players on those teams who is a "Legit HoFer", "in the HoF, but shouldn't be", "not in the HoF, but should be". He then tallied all of those players into a column he calls PDG, "Pretty Darn Good." Simple, but it works. The years he used are 1933, '41, '48, '53, '58, '61, '69, '76, '86, '99, and 2003. He gives reasons for picking each one I won't go into.

For those teams from '33 to '76, he comes up with an average of 16.5 legit HoFers and 19 in the PDG category. Since there were still players from the '86 team still playing, from that point forward the latter three categories become "On Track for HoF", "Iffy" and "Future HoFers?" For those teams, none of them seem to crack double digits in Legit HoFers and not nearly as many "On Track for the HoF" to make up the difference.

I want to do a few things here. First, revisit and re-evaluate the '03 team to see if his observations hold up. Second, do that same type of evaluation with the 2013 All-star Teams. And, finally, at least try to discuss his position which is that there seems to be a shortage of truly elite talent.

For the sake of argument, I'd like to keep evaluations of those "questionable" players to what they actually did on the field.

The 2003 All-Star Teams feature perhaps two starters who seem a sure bet for Cooperstown, Barry Bonds and Alex Rodriguez, with perhaps one or two others who seem definitely headed in that direction

Here they are (* denotes starter, players selected but not participating due to injury are included):

American League
C: Jorge Posada*, Ramon Hernandez, Jason Varitek
1B: Carlos Delgado*, Jason Giambi
2B: Alfonso Soriano*, Bret Boone
SS: Alex Rodriguez*, Nomar Garciaparra
3B: Troy Glaus*, Hank Blalock
OF: Garrett Anderson*, Hideki Matsui*, Ichiro Suzuki*, Vernon Wells, Manny Ramirez, Carl Everett, Magglio Ordonez, Melvin Mora
DH: Edgar Martinez, Mike Sweeney, Dmitri Young
P: Esteban Loaiza*, Lance Carter, Roger Clemens, Brendan Donnelly, Keith Foulke, Eddie Guardado
P: Roy Halladay, Shigetoshi Hasegawa, Mike MacDougal, Jamie Moyer, Mark Mulder, CC Sabathia, Barry Zito


National League
C: Javy Lopez*, Paul Lo Duca
1B: Todd Helton*, Richie Sexson
2B: Jose Vidro*, Luis Castillo, Marcus Giles
SS: Edgar Renteria*, Rafeal Furcal
3B: Scott Rolen*, Aaron Boone, Mike Lowell
OF: Albert Pujols*, Jim Edmonds*, Gary Sheffield*, Andruw Jones, Luis Gonzalez, Geoff Jenkins, Rondell White, Preston Wilson
DH: Barry Bonds*
P: Jason Schmidt*, Armando Benitez, Kevin Brown, Shawn Chacon, Eric Gagne, Russ Ortiz
P: Mark Prior, John Smoltz, Billy Wagner, Dontrelle Willis, Mike Williams, Woody Williams, Randy Wolf, Kerry Wood



Now, for the 2013 squads:

American League
Starters
C: Joe Mauer, Twins
1B: Chris Davis, Orioles
2B: Robinson Cano, Yankees
SS: J.J. Hardy, Orioles
3B: Miguel Cabrera, Tigers
OF: Mike Trout, Angels
OF: Adam Jones, Orioles
OF: Jose Bautista, Blue Jays
DH: David Ortiz, Red Sox

Pitchers
RHP: Grant Balfour, A's
RHP: Clay Buchholz, Red Sox
LHP: Brett Cecil, Blue Jays
RHP: Bartolo Colon, &, A's
RHP: Jesse Crain, White Sox
RHP: Yu Darvish, Rangers
RHP: Steve Delabar,Blue Jays
RHP: Felix Hernandez, Mariners
RHP: Greg Holland, Royals
RHP: Hisashi Iwakuma, Mariners
RHP: Justin Masterson, Indians
RHP: Matt Moore, Rays
RHP: Joe Nathan, Rangers
LHP: Glen Perkins, Twins
RHP: Mariano Rivera, Yankees
LHP: Chris Sale, White Sox
RHP: Max Scherzer, Tigers
RHP: Chris Tillman, Orioles
RHP: Justin Verlander, Tigers

Reserves
C: Jason Castro, Astros
C: Salvador Perez, Royals
1B: Prince Fielder, Tigers
2B: Jason Kipnis, Indians
2B: Dustin Pedroia, Red Sox
2B: Ben Zobrist, Rays
SS: Jhonny Peralta, Tigers
3B: Manny Machado, Orioles
OF: Nelson Cruz, Rangers
OF: Alex Gordon, Royals
OF: Torii Hunter, Tigers
DH: Edwin Encarnacion, Blue Jays

National League
Starters
C: Yadier Molina, Cardinals
1B: Joey Votto, Reds
2B: Brandon Phillips, Reds
SS: Troy Tulowitzki, Rockies
3B: David Wright, Mets
OF: Carlos Beltran, Cardinals
OF: Carlos Gonzalez, Rockies
OF: Bryce Harper, Nationals

Pitchers
LHP: Madison Bumgarner, Giants
LHP: Aroldis Chapman, Reds
LHP: Patrick Corbin, D-backs
RHP: Jose Fernandez, Marlins
RHP: Jason Grilli, Pirates
RHP: Matt Harvey, Mets
LHP: Clayton Kershaw, Dodgers
RHP: Craig Kimbrel, Braves
LHP: Cliff Lee, Phillies
LHP: Jeff Locke, Pirates
RHP: Mark Melancon, Pirates
RHP: Edward Mujica, Cardinals
RHP: Sergio Romo, Giants
RHP: Adam Wainwright, Cardinals
LHP: Travis Wood, Cubs
RHP: Jordan Zimmermann, Nationals

Reserves
C: Buster Posey, Giants
C: Brian McCann, Braves
1B: Paul Goldschmidt, D-backs
1B: Allen Craig, Cardinals
1B: Freddie Freeman, Braves
2B: Matt Carpenter, Cardinals
2B: Marco Scutaro, Giants
SS: Everth Cabrera, Padres
SS: Jean Segura, Brewers
3B: Pedro Alvarez, Pirates
OF: Domonic Brown, Phillies
OF: Michael Cuddyer, Rockies
OF: Carlos Gomez, Brewers
OF: Andrew McCutchen, Pirates


Discuss. I'll jump back in with my own thoughts later.

 

[Warner2BruceTD]

I was thinking the same thing when I was watching this years All Star Game, which is that there doesn't seem to be as much HOF level talent in the game as in the past.

But what I chalked it up to, was fans being far more cynical & critical as time passes. Part of this is we *think* we're more sophisticated in analyzing players (we are, but at the same time, improved analytics also lead to coming full circle in making the same mistakes in player evaluation that we did in the past, but this is a topic that will surely derail the thread so I won't elaborate), and the other part of it that is in today's era, for whatever reason, fans start backwards when breaking down a player. What I mean is, finding the warts is the priority, finding reasons to say a guy stinks instead of focusing on what he does well. That's society these days, we're a dark group. In the 50's, a guy could just be a good ballplayer. That was that. People had jobs & nice houses & 2.5 kids & were happy. Now, we can't accept that, because we're all pissed off and angry and cynical. "Sure, he hit .308, but look at that BABIP. And his walk rate declined 2%. He's regressing." Really?

So what happens is, you end up with very few players everybody "likes", and a lot of players with warts.

But then again, this was written in 1993, so maybe you can ignore everything I just wrote. I don't know.

 

[Warner2BruceTD]

American League
C: Jorge Posada*, Ramon Hernandez, Jason Varitek
1B: Carlos Delgado*, Jason Giambi
2B: Alfonso Soriano*, Bret Boone
SS: Alex Rodriguez*, Nomar Garciaparra
3B: Troy Glaus*, Hank Blalock
OF: Garrett Anderson*, Hideki Matsui*, Ichiro Suzuki*, Vernon Wells, Manny Ramirez, Carl Everett, Magglio Ordonez, Melvin Mora
DH: Edgar Martinez, Mike Sweeney, Dmitri Young
P: Esteban Loaiza*, Lance Carter, Roger Clemens, Brendan Donnelly, Keith Foulke, Eddie Guardado
P: Roy Halladay, Shigetoshi Hasegawa, Mike MacDougal, Jamie Moyer, Mark Mulder, CC Sabathia, Barry Zito


National League
C: Javy Lopez*, Paul Lo Duca
1B: Todd Helton*, Richie Sexson
2B: Jose Vidro*, Luis Castillo, Marcus Giles
SS: Edgar Renteria*, Rafeal Furcal
3B: Scott Rolen*, Aaron Boone, Mike Lowell
OF: Albert Pujols*, Jim Edmonds*, Gary Sheffield*, Andruw Jones, Luis Gonzalez, Geoff Jenkins, Rondell White, Preston Wilson
DH: Barry Bonds*
P: Jason Schmidt*, Armando Benitez, Kevin Brown, Shawn Chacon, Eric Gagne, Russ Ortiz
P: Mark Prior, John Smoltz, Billy Wagner, Dontrelle Willis, Mike Williams, Woody Williams, Randy Wolf, Kerry Wood

Using his "PDG" criteria, here is my list of guys who could reasonably be considered hall of famers:

Should be in based on their careers, you suck if you disagree:
Arod
Ichiro
Manny Ramirez
Roger Clemens
Roy Halladay
Albert Pujols
Barry Bonds

Guys where I can accept a counter argument, but in most cases I put them in (asterisk guys I would put in no doubt):
Carlos Delgado
Jason Giambi*
Edgar Martinez*
CC Sabathia*
Todd Helton*
Scott Rolen
John Smoltz*

So that's 14 for PDG? I have a few more i'd put on like Gary Sheffield who I would vote for in a nano second & Jorge Posada who I probably wouldn't but wouldn't argue if somebody else did, so let's call it 15?

 

[Warner2BruceTD]

American League
Starters
C: Joe Mauer, Twins
1B: Chris Davis, Orioles
2B: Robinson Cano, Yankees
SS: J.J. Hardy, Orioles
3B: Miguel Cabrera, Tigers
OF: Mike Trout, Angels
OF: Adam Jones, Orioles
OF: Jose Bautista, Blue Jays
DH: David Ortiz, Red Sox

Pitchers
RHP: Grant Balfour, A's
RHP: Clay Buchholz, Red Sox
LHP: Brett Cecil, Blue Jays
RHP: Bartolo Colon, &, A's
RHP: Jesse Crain, White Sox
RHP: Yu Darvish, Rangers
RHP: Steve Delabar,Blue Jays
RHP: Felix Hernandez, Mariners
RHP: Greg Holland, Royals
RHP: Hisashi Iwakuma, Mariners
RHP: Justin Masterson, Indians
RHP: Matt Moore, Rays
RHP: Joe Nathan, Rangers
LHP: Glen Perkins, Twins
RHP: Mariano Rivera, Yankees
LHP: Chris Sale, White Sox
RHP: Max Scherzer, Tigers
RHP: Chris Tillman, Orioles
RHP: Justin Verlander, Tigers

Reserves
C: Jason Castro, Astros
C: Salvador Perez, Royals
1B: Prince Fielder, Tigers
2B: Jason Kipnis, Indians
2B: Dustin Pedroia, Red Sox
2B: Ben Zobrist, Rays
SS: Jhonny Peralta, Tigers
3B: Manny Machado, Orioles
OF: Nelson Cruz, Rangers
OF: Alex Gordon, Royals
OF: Torii Hunter, Tigers
DH: Edwin Encarnacion, Blue Jays

National League
Starters
C: Yadier Molina, Cardinals
1B: Joey Votto, Reds
2B: Brandon Phillips, Reds
SS: Troy Tulowitzki, Rockies
3B: David Wright, Mets
OF: Carlos Beltran, Cardinals
OF: Carlos Gonzalez, Rockies
OF: Bryce Harper, Nationals

Pitchers
LHP: Madison Bumgarner, Giants
LHP: Aroldis Chapman, Reds
LHP: Patrick Corbin, D-backs
RHP: Jose Fernandez, Marlins
RHP: Jason Grilli, Pirates
RHP: Matt Harvey, Mets
LHP: Clayton Kershaw, Dodgers
RHP: Craig Kimbrel, Braves
LHP: Cliff Lee, Phillies
LHP: Jeff Locke, Pirates
RHP: Mark Melancon, Pirates
RHP: Edward Mujica, Cardinals
RHP: Sergio Romo, Giants
RHP: Adam Wainwright, Cardinals
LHP: Travis Wood, Cubs
RHP: Jordan Zimmermann, Nationals

Reserves
C: Buster Posey, Giants
C: Brian McCann, Braves
1B: Paul Goldschmidt, D-backs
1B: Allen Craig, Cardinals
1B: Freddie Freeman, Braves
2B: Matt Carpenter, Cardinals
2B: Marco Scutaro, Giants
SS: Everth Cabrera, Padres
SS: Jean Segura, Brewers
3B: Pedro Alvarez, Pirates
OF: Domonic Brown, Phillies
OF: Michael Cuddyer, Rockies
OF: Carlos Gomez, Brewers
OF: Andrew McCutchen, Pirates

Ok, this is very hard because its so speculative in most cases. But I guess that talks to the point of there not being many "sure fire" Hall of Fame players around as the past.

I'd be flat out shocked if these guy didn't make it:
Joe Mauer
Miguel Cabrera
Mariano Rivera

Would take a catastrophic collapse to not make it, but I can't call them locks:
Robinson Cano
Felix Hernandez
Justin Verlander
Joey Votto
David Wright
Buster Posey

I'd put these guys in today, with zero hesitation, but hey, i'm considered a easy marker:
David Ortiz
Prince Fielder

If they stay on track, let's talk, but it's way early
Mike Trout
Dustin Pedroia
Manny Machado
Troy Tulowitzki
Carlos Gonzalez
Bryce Harper
Andrew McCutchen

Debatable, once again asterisks indicates I would vote yes:
Jose Bautista
Torii Hunter
Carlos Beltran*
Cliff Lee*

Then you have a bunch of guys who it's way way to early to speculate, like Harvey, Fernandez, Goldschmidt, Davis, Moore, Locke etc. Some will end up legit, others will look like Woody Williams & Randy Wolf from the 1993 list and we will chuckle.

Then you have guys I have no idea what to do with for various & different reasons, like Chapman/Kimbrel, Darvish, Molina, Wainwright, Sale who like the group above will see a couple make it and others flame away or just not do enough.

It's hard to do this for guys "in the moment". Maybe that's why it feels so empty in terms of mega stars.

 

[NAHSTE]

Ok, this is very hard because its so speculative in most cases. But I guess that talks to the point of there not being many "sure fire" Hall of Fame players around as the past.

I'd be flat out shocked if these guy didn't make it:
Joe Mauer
Miguel Cabrera
Mariano Rivera

Would take a catastrophic collapse to not make it, but I can't call them locks:
Robinson Cano
Felix Hernandez
Justin Verlander
Joey Votto
David Wright
Buster Posey

I'd put these guys in today, with zero hesitation, but hey, i'm considered a easy marker:
David Ortiz
Prince Fielder

If they stay on track, let's talk, but it's way early
Mike Trout
Dustin Pedroia
Manny Machado
Troy Tulowitzki
Carlos Gonzalez
Bryce Harper
Andrew McCutchen

Debatable, once again asterisks indicates I would vote yes:
Jose Bautista
Torii Hunter
Carlos Beltran*
Cliff Lee*

Then you have a bunch of guys who it's way way to early to speculate, like Harvey, Fernandez, Goldschmidt, Davis, Moore, Locke etc. Some will end up legit, others will look like Woody Williams & Randy Wolf from the 1993 list and we will chuckle.

Then you have guys I have no idea what to do with for various & different reasons, like Chapman/Kimbrel, Darvish, Molina, Wainwright, Sale who like the group above will see a couple make it and others flame away or just not do enough.

It's hard to do this for guys "in the moment". Maybe that's why it feels so empty in terms of mega stars.

McCann has 7 all star appearances in 8 seasons and leads all catchers in HR and RBI since he's been in the league. Halfway to 3 hundo homers (169) and should be DHing part time in the American League starting next season. I think he's on a nice lil track, yet you no mention him.

 

[Warner2BruceTD]

McCann has 7 all star appearances in 8 seasons and leads all catchers in HR and RBI since he's been in the league. Halfway to 3 hundo homers (169) and should be DHing part time in the American League starting next season. I think he's on a nice lil track, yet you no mention him.

So stick him on there, maybe the "I don't know what to do with these guys" list on the bottom, I wont argue.

 

[NAHSTE]

So stick him on there, maybe the "I don't know what to do with these guys" list on the bottom, I wont argue.

Seemed like quite the oversight, is all. McCann might get overshadowed a bit since he was kind of the bridge from the Pudge Rodriguez and Mike Piazza age to the Yadi and Posey era. An in-between era guy with consistently good but never spectacular numbers.

 

[Goober]

I like Prince Fielder, he's super. But Hall of Fame?

Also, not sure how Torii Hunter would even be considered. Long career but he put up remarkably average numbers. Only 3 seasons with a WAR greater then 3.5. If Kenny Lofton can't even get 5% of the vote then how in the world Is Hunter a HOFer?

Lofton: 9234 PA, .299/.372/.423, 62.2 WAR.
Hunter: 8281 PA, .278/.335/.465, 41.5 WAR.

Warner please explain this shit dick opinion of yours.

 

[Warner2BruceTD]

Seemed like quite the oversight, is all. McCann might get overshadowed a bit since he was kind of the bridge from the Pudge Rodriguez and Mike Piazza age to the Mauer, Yadi and Posey era. An in-between era guy with consistently good but never spectacular numbers.

55th among C in JAWS, 23 career bWAR puts him 59th. On both lists, he's behind every HOF catcher aside from Al Lopez who is in for being a manager, and Wilbur Robinson, an 1890's veteran's committee vanity pick.

How much WAR does he have left in him? 20? That only puts him ahead (barely) of fringy HOFs like Rick Ferrell (the worst HOF player in most people's opinions), Ray Schalk, etc. And way behind many non HOF catchers like Joe Torre, Ted Simmons, etc. He'd be in the ballpark of Thurman Munson, Bill Freehan, Wally Schang..you see any HOF snubs in that group?

With that said, it would put him in Posada's neighborhood, who I included on the '93 list.

So yeah, stick him in "I don't know what to do with him", because he has some serious work to do, but catcher is a funky position so who the fuck knows.

 

[Warner2BruceTD]

I like Prince Fielder, he's super. But Hall of Fame?

I guess since I was first, we're going to fine tooth comb my lists, but..

Let's not derail the premise. Can we agree that Fielder certainly fits the criteria of "PDG" in the OP? I don't think that is in dispute, or no?

 

[EmpireWF]

W2B said he'd put Giambi in without a doubt. If that's the case, than Fielder should be a no doubter, too.

Like the guy said, perhaps he's an easy marker.

But pretty darn good, indeed.

 

[Warner2BruceTD]

You can strike Hunter from that grouping if you want, very fringy addition anyway, i'm not falling on a sword for him by any means.

 

[Goober]

I guess since I was first, we're going to fine tooth comb my lists, but..

Let's not derail the premise. Can we agree that Fielder certainly fits the criteria of "PDG" in the OP? I don't think that is in dispute, or no?

Just don't see it, or how he could even get close. Fielder is currently 103rd in JAWS among 1B. His total is barely a third of the total for average HOF 1B. And he's 29. Three months younger then Brian McCann. Not sure how you're writing off McCann while giving Fielder a chance.

 

[Warner2BruceTD]

Just don't see it, or how he could even get close. Fielder is currently 103rd in JAWS among 1B. His total is barely a third of the total for average HOF 1B. And he's 29. Three months younger then Brian McCann. Not sure how you're writing off McCann while giving Fielder a chance.

Prince Fielder is going to hit 500 home runs. His counting stats are going to be very impressive, without the built in steroid era excuse voters are using now on guys.

Calling him a lock right now is probably off base, but his career trajectory is going to get him in imo.

edit - also, I concede i'm an easy marker. Fielder is one of the most feared sluggers of his generation, will hit 500 HR's, gets on base at a .400 clip, RIBBEYS galore, never takes a day off, etc. It's stupid museum, it's good enough for me.

 

[Goober]

Of that 2003 roster, at a quick glance here is who I would vote for for the HOF:

Jason Giambi
Alex Rodriguez
Ichiro
Manny Ramirez
Edgar Martinez
Roger Clemens
Roy Halladay
CC Sabathia
Scott Rolen
Albert Pujols
Jim Edmonds
Andruw Jones
Barry Bonds
John Smoltz

14 guys. I realize not all of these guys will make it, but still that's a pretty good number in my opinion.

 

[Senser81]

I've read a lot of Barra's stuff....its always interesting.

I think if you were to compare present-day baseball to 1930s-1960s baseball, I would guess that having way more teams now would increase the odds of non-HOF guys getting in to the all-star game. I would also be interested to see the midseason stats of the HOF all-stars from the 1930's-1960's...I wonder if HOF guys would just automatically be put in the All-Star game because people/media weren't as fascinated by stats.

It would also be logical to think that if each team needs one all-star rep, then having more teams would decrease the odds of the HOF players making it.

 

[dell71]

I've read a lot of Barra's stuff....its always interesting.

I think if you were to compare present-day baseball to 1930s-1960s baseball, I would guess that having way more teams now would increase the odds of non-HOF guys getting in to the all-star game. I would also be interested to see the midseason stats of the HOF all-stars from the 1930's-1960's...I wonder if HOF guys would just automatically be put in the All-Star game because people/media weren't as fascinated by stats.

It would also be logical to think that if each team needs one all-star rep, then having more teams would decrease the odds of the HOF players making it.

The number of teams and number of All-star slots is interesting. We have more All-Stars than ever before but also more spots per team. The '33 teams had a total of 36 All-Stars in a 16 team league, or 2.25 slots per team. The '69 teams had 59 All-Stars/24 teams - 2.45/team. This year's teams had 79 All-Stars or 2.63/team. That suggests, to me at least, that there's still plenty of room for truly great players even though we have to give at least one slot for every team. Yes, we're getting more non-HoF types in the AS game, but because of the sheer numbers we should probably be getting more guys who are.

And I don't think there's ever been a time in baseball history where the people who followed it, fans and media alike, weren't obsessed with stats. The only things that have really changed is which stats we focus on and how much access everyone has to them.

That said, I think Warner & Gooby have it about right as far as how many guys fit the bill. Sure, we could argue whether this guy or that one belongs, but I won't. The point is if we go with their number of 14 or 15 "PDG" for the '03 teams that still leaves us short of 16 or 17 per the other teams who have already made it, plus a couple more who received some serious consideration. It doesn't seem like much difference except, as noted, the teams are so much bigger.

It could be because of all the access we have to those stats, and how sophisticated we've become in analyzing them. Collectively, we're all harder graders than we ever were before. For instance, a guy like Jim Thome would've once been a guaranteed slam-dunk lock for enshrinement with 600+ career HR. Now, he'll likely still get in, probably on the first ballot, but there will be some debating about it when he becomes eligible. We'll hear things like his best 7 years of WAR are actually below average for HoF first basement (his JAWS is a bit above average for HoFers at his position).

Something else I've been thinking about that Barra, the author, quoted from an actual HoFer (one whose status as such we could debate also):

With so many good Latin and now Oriental players in the big leagues, the talent level might have been raised to a point in the last few years that it's harder than ever for anyone to rise above the pack. We might not know who the real greats are until we can look back on them ten years from now.

Ten years from now is right where we are with the '03 teams. Barra was writing without the perspective of time about the same players. He seems to have gotten the raw numbers right, but missed on some of the whos. Some of the interesting observations he made about players from both the '03 and '96 teams...

Scott Rolen: "will probably be the National League's All-Star third baseman for several years to come, but he's closer to being a young Robin Ventura than a young Mike Schmidt."

(My own question on Rolen: If Rolen is an HoFer, why not Adrian Beltre?)

Albert Pujols: "looks to be a monster at the plate, but he's a slow runner with limited range in the outfield." (AP was only in his 3rd year, got even better and moved to 1st)

Carlos Delgado: "He'd have to have at least two or three more seasons like 2003 before he could be spoken of as a candidate." (Hmmm, none quite that good, but some really nice ones followed. Enough?)

Barry Larkin: "is going to be a hard sell when it comes to the Hall of Fame because he has never done anything, well, spectacular."

Greg Maddux: "probably won't make 300 wins."

(I thought this was really interesting because GM finished '03 at 266. True, he was 37, but he was 16-11 and that was only the first year he really showed any signs of decline. Of course, he wound up with 355.)

Roger Clemens: "Of course he's going to the Hall of Fame; he's the greatest starting pitcher in baseball history."

(Hmmm...Let's suppose everything about Clemens career is on the up-and-up. Is this true?)

 

[Senser81]

Barra's "prediction" skills are no better or worse than yours or mine. He would do the same with football, saying in 1987 that Neil Lomax would be remembered as a better QB than Joe Montana, etc.

Sutton is an interesting case, and makes me question HOF "milestones" in general. Its odd that 300 wins is the pitching milestone, Sutton was one of the last pitchers to ever get 300 wins, yet Sutton is probably the weakest 300 win pitcher in the modern era. So how important of a milestone could that possibly be? Another thread speculates about Sabathia making 300 wins...when do we question the milestone itself?

 

[NAHSTE]

Barra's "prediction" skills are no better or worse than yours or mine. He would do the same with football, saying in 1987 that Neil Lomax would be remembered as a better QB than Joe Montana, etc.

Sutton is an interesting case, and makes me question HOF "milestones" in general. Its odd that 300 wins is the pitching milestone, Sutton was one of the last pitchers to ever get 300 wins, yet Sutton is probably the weakest 300 win pitcher in the modern era. So how important of a milestone could that possibly be? Another thread speculates about Sabathia making 300 wins...when do we question the milestone itself?

Let's go one further, and question the validity of the "win" as a measure of a pitcher's worth.

:tiptoe:

 

[dell71]

Let's go one further, and question the validity of the "win" as a measure of a pitcher's worth.

:tiptoe:

This is a tough one for me. I agree the win should not be the answer to the question of how good a certain pitcher is, but I think it should still be part of the equation for starting pitchers. It's not the 1st, 2nd, 3rd, or even 4th thing I look at, but I do give it a look. After all, there is something to be said for being able to leave the game, or not, having allowed less runs to cross the plate than the other pitcher(s). After all, that is essentially the definition of the job. So of course there is something to be said for being able to do that 300 times.

That said, I don't think any milestone should mean automatic enshrinement. Reaching them may not be easy, but can be attributed as much to longevity as superior talent. They're also arbitrary and can be moved at our collective discretion. At one point 400 HR was the magic number for induction, then Dave Kingman happened. Don Sutton is a perfect example of the benefits of longevity. I don't think he belongs in the HoF. He just pitched for 23 years (only one stretch of 3 to 5 years, depending on how you look at it, where he was truly one of the game's best). Unfortunately, reaching milestones is the way baseball fans have defined greatness for decades and we're only just beginning to move away from that line of thinking as a group.