Chatbox sparks bettor's debate

[ZoneBlitz]

Hitman in the chatbox accurately predicted that Denver would win...based on the bettor's theory that the 3 other favorites won, so the 4th favorite has to lose. He was very confident about his prediction and it came true:

alright.. so 3 favorites won already.. this doesn't bode well for pittsburgh

what i'm saying is that when 3 favorites win it usually doesn't bode well for the 4th

i am being superstitious.. but its also true

fine.. we'll talk again after the steelers lose

at the very least, the steelers won't cover.. and tha's all that matters

steelers will lose though

So did the odds play a role in Denver winning, or was it just a fluke occurence? Discuss

 

[Rudi]

Never bet against Tim Tebow. thats my betting rule.

 

[Houston]

Who was dumb enough to even start a real argument over this?

 

[Youk]

There is too much luck, as well as other factors involved for that to be the reasoning. You had a hurt QB, no starting RB, no defensive line, and a weakened secondary with Pittsburgh. If you change these factors (and not the odds), then you have the Steelers winning.

 

[killgod]

based on the bettor's theory that the 3 other favorites won, so the 4th favorite has to lose.

:slap:

 

[Warner2BruceTD]

This is genius!

Let's all go to Vegas and bet against the trend is roulette!

 

[Warner2BruceTD]

Gamblers are desperate, insane people who in most cases are no longer rooted in reality.

 

[1ke]

He who gambles lives in shambles.

 

[St. Francisco]

The awesome thing about football is you always have a 50/50 shot of being right.

 

[nwfisch]

He who gambles lives in shambles.

Do I look like I give a fuck :wvubcs::thebigone::bonesy:

 

[Houston]

The awesome thing about football is you always have a 50/50 shot of being right.

Some would argue that you could say the same about any sport.

 

[Woy]

The awesome thing about football is you always have a 50/50 shot of being right.

Except with the BCS.

 

[Hitman]

Shady facts are facts... Ty to the Broncos and the NEW Touchdown Jesus of Denver, Tim 'My dad made your dad' Tebow!

 

[G-men]

Are you stupid? Maybe it is a trend that proved to be true today, but it's not like that changed the way the Broncos or the Steelers played. Do you honestly think the Broncos saw the results and were like, "Alright guys, the three other favorites won so now we gotta play way better than we originally planned to and win this game."

 

[krulmichael]

Yes, the Steelers lost because Hitman said so... :smh:

 

[ZoneBlitz]

Are you stupid? Maybe it is a trend that proved to be true today, but it's not like that changed the way the Broncos or the Steelers played. Do you honestly think the Broncos saw the results and were like, "Alright guys, the three other favorites won so now we gotta play way better than we originally planned to and win this game."

I dont think Hitman said the other games changed how the Broncos/Steelers played.

I think his point is that the odds showed what was more likely to happen with the game.

 

[Youk]

I dont think Hitman said the other games changed how the Broncos/Steelers played.

I think his point is that the odds showed what was more likely to happen with the game.

:jonesy:

His point was that the odds changed how they played, because of the Steelers thinking it was going to be an easy win.

 

[Warner2BruceTD]

I dont think Hitman said the other games changed how the Broncos/Steelers played.

I think his point is that the odds showed what was more likely to happen with the game.

Each game has independent odds that are not effected by the previous games.

Just like a coin flip or red/black on a roulette wheel. Each flip/spin has independent odds. There is no more statistical probability of 'heads' or 'red' coming up just because there have been 1000 'tails' or 'blacks' in a row. You are still dealing with a 50/50 probability on a coin flip, or slightly less than that on the roulette table (due to 0 & 00), regardless of previous outcomes.

Plenty of people have gone broke trying to use the Martingale System in roulette (playing against the trends by doubling up your bet until the opposite outcome occurs). There are document records of 100's of roulette spins in a row coming up red or black or odd or even. Previous outcomes do not change odds of individual spins.

You can have 100 consecutive favorites hit in these playoff games. There is no cosmic force that says the odds will increase that number 101 will be the underdog. Believing in that shit is the fastest way to go broke.

 

[Warner2BruceTD]

And Hitman successfully trolled ZB into creating this thread, obviously.

 

[Hitman]

Each game has independent odds that are not effected by the previous games.

Just like a coin flip or red/black on a roulette wheel. Each flip/spin has independent odds. There is no more statistical probability of 'heads' or 'red' coming up just because there have been 1000 'tails' or 'blacks' in a row. You are still dealing with a 50/50 probability on a coin flip, or slightly less than that on the roulette table (due to 0 & 00), regardless of previous outcomes.

Plenty of people have gone broke trying to use the Martingale System in roulette (playing against the trends by doubling up your bet until the opposite outcome occurs). There are document records of 100's of roulette spins in a row coming up red or black or odd or even. Previous outcomes do not change odds of individual spins.

You can have 100 consecutive favorites hit in these playoff games. There is no cosmic force that says the odds will increase that number 101 will be the underdog. Believing in that shit is the fastest way to go broke.

See, the main difference here is that a roulette wheel isn't a collection of 50+ individual personalities. You can't compare how people behave in a pressure situation to how a roulette wheel spins. One is a mindless inanimate object with one person influencing it and the other is a tired old football team playing in altitude with extreme expectations put on them going against a young team that nobody expects to win.

Youk and I established earlier that it is more of a psychological thing combined with odds that made this a near probable outcome.