Dave Cameron from Fangraphs on the HOF chances for active players

[Goober]

I'm not saying Howard should or shouldn't get in but his chances appear at least as good as a number of players mentioned. I also think that as a lefty powerhitting 1b he could conceivably play 10 more years. And his value has always been tied to homers & rbi. He could get plenty more both. I understand how advanced statistical analysis has gotten but I doubt there'll ever be a time when 30+ hr 100+ rbi guy will be useless. Bottom line is even if you don't think he's going to the hall he should at least get mentioned before guys like Johnny Damon & Tim Hudson.
TXT8026/T05_0 UP.Browser/6.2.3.2 (GUI) MMP/2.0

Even if Howard plays until he's 40, you're only looking at a guy with 450 HRs, and nothing else to his name. And that's being very optimistic. He's a one tool player, who had a short peak and is aging fast.

Johnny Damon is by far the better player in my opinion. Assuming he plays another two years, he could retire with 3000 hits, 250 HRs, 450 SBs, 50 WAR. Ryan Howard won't even sniff 40 WAR for his career. Likewise Tim Hudson is also a much better player with a significant period of success. Ryan Howard was nothing more then a flash in a pan.

 

[FedEx227]

You basically have Richie Sexson with gouty RBI numbers propped up by playing on a team with 3 other really, really good players. Howard is good at what he does, no doubt... but that doesn't make him anywhere near a hall of famer.

 

[FirstTimer]

How much resistance will Thome get since he played a lot of time at DH? Kind of tough to look past 600 home runs. Well liked guy. "Clean" rep. But for some reason I see the DH thing hurting him a lot for no real good reason.

I've also seen some people claim that if Halladay retired tomorrow he is a HOF'er. 188 career wins. 3-20 win seasons. I agree that I think as it continues he will be a lock..but can we really say he's a no brainer already?

 

[Warner2BruceTD]

If Roy Halladay isnt a lock Hall Of Famer, I give up.

 

[Goober]

How much resistance will Thome get since he played a lot of time at DH? Kind of tough to look past 600 home runs. Well liked guy. "Clean" rep. But for some reason I see the DH thing hurting him a lot for no real good reason.

I've also seen some people claim that if Halladay retired tomorrow he is a HOF'er. 188 career wins. 3-20 win seasons. I agree that I think as it continues he will be a lock..but can we really say he's a no brainer already?

I think Thome will get in. If I had a ballot, I'd vote for him every time, but you never know with these baseball writers. A good comparison for Thome, in my opinion is Edgar Martinez. Obviously Thome had a lot more power, but Martinez made up for it by hitting for a better average. Their career wOBA and WAR:
Thome: .406 wOBA, 71.5 WAR
Martinez: .405 wOBA, 69.9 WAR

Thome will obviously get a boost from voters with the big home run numbers, and the fact he didn't make the move to DH until late in his career. However Martinez is getting the shaft from voters right now, Peter Abraham wrote that he would still be just a borderline hall of famer if he would have played first or third his entire career (ha!). It doesn't look good for Martinez, but I think Thome will definitely get in.

As for Halladay, I'd vote for him today, just under the principle that he's the best pitcher of the decade. But I think there's also a very good chance that we see another five great years out of him. At which point we're talking about a guy with 250 wins and 100 WAR, along with his great peripheral stats.

 

[Warner2BruceTD]

Thome is Harmon Killebrew. He even looks like him.

I dont think Thome and Edgar are similar players at all.

 

[StealthShot]

Don't get how Ivan Rodriguez is such a lock when you know damn well he took some steroids and w/e else he could.

 

[Warner2BruceTD]

Don't get how Ivan Rodriguez is such a lock when you know damn well he took some steroids and w/e else he could.

I think Cameron's basis is that we know for certain that A-Rod juiced, while all of the others (including Pudge) would just be speculative.

All these fuckers did it, so to me I don't really care. Vote them all in.

 

[dell71]

Even if Howard plays until he's 40, you're only looking at a guy with 450 HRs, and nothing else to his name. And that's being very optimistic. He's a one tool player, who had a short peak and is aging fast.

Johnny Damon is by far the better player in my opinion. Assuming he plays another two years, he could retire with 3000 hits, 250 HRs, 450 SBs, 50 WAR. Ryan Howard won't even sniff 40 WAR for his career. Likewise Tim Hudson is also a much better player with a significant period of success. Ryan Howard was nothing more then a flash in a pan.

Again, I'm not arguing that he should or will be in or out. Admittedly, if he's washed up as you seem to think then he won't do much more and he shouldn't get any HOF consideration. All I'm saying is that to this point his accomplishments warrant a mention in an article like this. He won a ROY, an MVP, led the league in HR twice, RBI 3 times and has been top 10 in MVP voting for 6 years running. I can't look at all those things and say 'oh, his WAR sucks and so does he.' To me, it just doesn't work that way. Meanwhile, a guy like Damon has played twice as long and not once has anyone thought he was an elite player. He'll compile a lot of nice stats and just may get to 3,000 hits and sneak into the Hall. Has anyone in the last 17 years since he's been in the majors had an objective conversation about who the 5 best outfielders in baseball were and said Johnny Damon? I really don't think so. Therefore, on a list discussing who "might" get in it makes no sense to me that a guy considered one of the best in the game by a number of people for a pretty decent stretch does not get mentioned but a guy who was never elite does.

 

[Warner2BruceTD]

Yeah, "flash in the pan" is a pretty rough assessment of Howard. He is/was better than that.

 

[Goober]

Again, I'm not arguing that he should or will be in or out. Admittedly, if he's washed up as you seem to think then he won't do much more and he shouldn't get any HOF consideration. All I'm saying is that to this point his accomplishments warrant a mention in an article like this. He won a ROY, an MVP, led the league in HR twice, RBI 3 times and has been top 10 in MVP voting for 6 years running. I can't look at all those things and say 'oh, his WAR sucks and so does he.' To me, it just doesn't work that way. Meanwhile, a guy like Damon has played twice as long and not once has anyone thought he was an elite player. He'll compile a lot of nice stats and just may get to 3,000 hits and sneak into the Hall. Has anyone in the last 17 years since he's been in the majors had an objective conversation about who the 5 best outfielders in baseball were and said Johnny Damon? I really don't think so. Therefore, on a list discussing who "might" get in it makes no sense to me that a guy considered one of the best in the game by a number of people for a pretty decent stretch does not get mentioned but a guy who was never elite does.

I still don't buy it. The MVP voting streak is a bit exaggerated. All it takes is one homer writer in Philadelphia to give Howard a ridiculous spot on his ballot to push him up to tenth overall in the rankings. This is just bound to happen when you have people submitting lists with ten names on them, and it has the last two years. Yes, he had three good years, but that's it. Hall of fame candidates should have a longer period of success then that, and I really don't see him rebounding to his previous level of performance. There's no reason to expect it.

The guy belongs in a platoon and is a one tool player.

 

[dell71]

I still don't buy it. The MVP voting streak is a bit exaggerated. All it takes is one homer writer in Philadelphia to give Howard a ridiculous spot on his ballot to push him up to tenth overall in the rankings. This is just bound to happen when you have people submitting lists with ten names on them, and it has the last two years. Yes, he had three good years, but that's it. Hall of fame candidates should have a longer period of success then that, and I really don't see him rebounding to his previous level of performance. There's no reason to expect it.

The guy belongs in a platoon and is a one tool player.

As far as it taking "one homer writer" to push a guy up to 10th, then that would be true for any player. What does it then say about Damon that even in his very best seasons he never got "one homer writer" to back him enough to ever finish better than 13th in MVP voting?

If you think Howard has already declined to the point he should be in a platoon then we'll just have to agree to disagree on this one.

 

[Goober]

As far as it taking "one homer writer" to push a guy up to 10th, then that would be true for any player. What does it then say about Damon that even in his very best seasons he never got "one homer writer" to back him enough to ever finish better than 13th in MVP voting?

If you think Howard has already declined to the point he should be in a platoon then we'll just have to agree to disagree on this one.

Here's Ryan Howard's batting line against LHP in 2011:
.224/.286/.347. 3 home runs in 185 at bats.
That reads more like Carlos Gomez's batting line, then a future hall of fame candidate.

 

[Warner2BruceTD]

His lefty splits were downright disgusting last season. It has become a problem.

 

[Warner2BruceTD]

LOL, Ryan Howard is a better player than Johnny Damon, and definitely a better player than Richie Sexon.

This is what I mean, people get carried away with bashing Howard. He may have been the most feared slugger in the game for four years. Johnny Damon was never the most feared anything, unless we are talking about fear among his own teammates if a single was hit in his direction with a man on 2B.

The best (and really, the only) argument that is valid against Howard, is he will likely end up having a short peak and short career overall due to his age when he came up. His rapidly declining numbers against LHP suggests that he could be done, but perhaps we should let the body cool before we bury him? I mean, the guy hit 33 bombs and had a .835 OPS, and it was considered a terrible year. Think about that.

 

[Warner2BruceTD]

And I guess I should give my thumbs up/thumbs down on Howard.

If he falls off a cliff like we think he will, it's a no. Not quite enough there.

If he puts together 5 or 6 more 30+ HR, .850-.900 OPS years, i'd probably say yes.

 

[Warner2BruceTD]

The more I read this article, the more I hate it. Cameron is likely one of these geeks who would prefer to set some sort of hardline WAR based bar to determine HOF'ers, while ignoring everything else about a career.

This paragraph is particularly stupid:

Ichiro’s the most divisive case here, though. If you give him credit for his time in Japan, you may not have a hard time giving him a vote. If you don’t, then he’s a short career guy whose value was tied pretty heavily to defense in a corner position. That said, he’s at nearly 2,500 hits in the Major Leagues alone, and if he has anything left in the tank, he’ll probably get to 3,000. I’m sure there will be a decent sized pushback against him as a no-power/no-walk right fielder, but at this point, I think he’s getting in. A few more good years could even push him into first ballot territory.

"A short career guy whose value is tied pretty heavily into defense"

WUT

He's going into his twelfth season, has led the league in hits seven times, has led the league in batting twice, and has nearly 2500 hits! Bah, all glove, that guy is!

And god damn him, and his lack of WALKS. He was busy getting hits. Silly gook.

And why exactly is it a negative that he's a consensus great (not good) fielder, with one of the greatest throwing arms in baseball history? Bah, value tied to fielding. Forget this guy who was a superlative fielder and will push 3000 hits despite not playing a single game until he was 27.

 

[Warner2BruceTD]

And I have no idea what form of baseball Cameron has been watching if he thinks Manny f'n Ramirez would have struggled to make the HOF without the PED cloud. You could argue he's the best RH hitter of all time. Utterly ridiculous.

 

[FedEx227]

It should be noted that Dave Cameron is kind of an idiot and like 2 years back ranked the Seattle Mariners as having a top 10 organization in baseball.

 

[dell71]

Here's Ryan Howard's batting line against LHP in 2011:
.224/.286/.347. 3 home runs in 185 at bats.
That reads more like Carlos Gomez's batting line, then a future hall of fame candidate.

And I guess I should give my thumbs up/thumbs down on Howard.

If he falls off a cliff like we think he will, it's a no. Not quite enough there.

If he puts together 5 or 6 more 30+ HR, .850-.900 OPS years, i'd probably say yes.

Granted, his lefty/right split from '11 is pretty bad. That said, I've not once tried to say he's a definite future HOFer, only that he should have a place in the article. After all, there are categories labeled: "Has had a HOF peak, but needs little more longevity...", "Nice career, but not quite", and "Off to a good start - keep it up and we'll talk". Surely, he could fit into one of those.