I usually don't get too involved in award-voting nominations until we're mostly done with the season -- too many things can change before then, and usually do.
This year, however, there's a very unusual situation. As I noted several weeks ago, although observers are putting forth a number of names for consideration, no one seems to be doing so with total conviction.
And that's because the 2010-11 MVP race has a really, really, abundantly obvious solution … but very few want to hear it.
Let's be honest for a minute. The best player in the league is LeBron James. It's not even close.
Most of you probably know this using just the eye test, but I'll make the statistical argument for posterity's sake. James is first in the NBA in PER (player efficiency rating), which would be his fourth straight season on top of the charts. He's also first in EWA (estimated wins added) -- again, the fourth straight year he's been first. Additionally, he's the linchpin of a suffocating defense that ranks third in the league in defensive efficiency despite lacking an imposing defensive big man.
Moreover, his case for the MVP award is only gaining steam. James in October and November muddled through 18 games in which he was dramatically less effective than usual, a major reason for the Heat's uninspired crawl out of the gate. Since then, however, he's been monstrously good, climbing to his usual perch atop the PER charts and widening his lead considerably with a spectacular 51-point outing against Orlando on Thursday.
With James cruising, the Heat are arguably the league's best team -- despite injuries to James, Dwyane Wade and Chris Bosh, they're 28-6 since their scuffling start. Yes, James has star support with Wade and Bosh in tow, but he also is saddled with inferior help. At roster spots 4 through 12, there isn't a weaker cast in basketball outside Ohio.
Historically, that combination of team success and limited help has been a surefire way to get lots of MVP votes. Just ask James, who won it the past two years after his team posted the best regular-season record.
Or imagine it another way …
If LeBron James and Dwyane Wade were on separate teams, we'd be having a two-way LeBron-Wade MVP debate, and nobody else would be in the discussion. Heck, nobody else would even be near the discussion. Anyone caught trying to slip in a Dirk Nowitzki or a Derrick Rose would be laughed out of the room.
"But they're not," you say, and actually that's part of my point.
Unfortunately, the MVP voting public has developed an awful sickness. Ever since the indefensible 2001 selection of Allen Iverson, the bizarre idea has taken hold that, somehow, the best way to measure a player's MVP worthiness is by estimating how awful the team would be without him.
Because the Heat have both LeBron and Wade, this argument goes, we can't wail and moan about how horrible the team might be in the absence of either one, and thus, by the same convoluted logic, we can't consider either the MVP. But we can freely consider Nowitzki because his backup is Brian Cardinal.
How absurd. So instead we're subjected to hearing about how bad the Mavs have been in Nowitzki's absence, or how Rose's Bulls managed to play well despite injuries to Carlos Boozer and Joakim Noah, or how Amare Stoudemire brought the magic of .500 basketball back to the Garden.
Here's the thing everyone misses: If you want to play that "they're dead without him" game with anyone other than LeBron, you lose. James' former team has gone from the league's best record with him -- two years running -- to among the worst teams in history without him. Nobody's topping that. If we're intent on playing the Iverson game and are being intellectually honest, we can give James the trophy right now.
Of course, MVP voting has never been awash in intellectual honesty -- or go back to 2006 and give me a better reason that Steve Nash had more votes than Chauncey Billups.
Instead, it's been as much about emotion as reason. I've written about this before, as have others, but the other bad habit we have with MVP votes is "voting for the story." Iverson in 2001, Nash's two MVP awards, Jason Kidd's close second in 2003 -- all those were essentially votes for a great story.
This is a huge, huge problem for James because his story is wildly unpopular. I can't emphasize this enough: The 2010-11 Miami Heat might be the single least popular team I've ever seen in any sport. Obviously, this stems largely from the way James, Wade and Bosh went about uniting. In fact, you'll probably be able to see that for yourself in the comments section shortly after this column is posted.
Writers, fans, execs, whoever -- nearly all were horrified by The Decision, a fact made most apparent in how the populace reacted to it and relished Miami's 9-8 start. When the Heat stumbled out of the gate, both fans and media types couldn't stop talking about it and many took tremendous pleasure from it. In contrast, since that time, the Heat are 28-4 when James plays -- but only a fraction as many pixels and barrels of ink have been spent on them in this spectacular stretch of the season.
Yes, LeBron's decision to do The Decision seems very unwise, particularly from a PR perspective, and Miami's trio seemed like killjoys by ganging up together. But does that make LeBron James (or Wade, for that matter) any less valuable a basketball player?
It does make it harder for the media to compose the Standard MVP Column -- and harder for fans to stomach it. Few are ready or willing to create a grand narrative lauding LeBron. His case is not a great triumph against the odds or a story of hardship overcome. As far as we know, he hasn't saved any drowning puppies or helped any old ladies cross the street.
So if LeBron gets any MVP votes, it won't be because he has the best storyline nor because he has Misguided Iverson Logic going for him.
(Side note: If you want to get cute and consider LeBron and Wade co-MVPs, forget that, too. A league spokesperson confirmed to me that MVP votes can't be split -- every voter has to list one person first and another second.)
In other words, several of the factors that normally have led to a successful MVP campaign aren't there for James. The only factor that's in his favor is that he's the most valuable player in the league.
Fifty games into the season, it's time to get real about the MVP race. LeBron James is head and shoulders above the rest of the league, and we've basically given ourselves carte blanche to ignore that fact just because we didn't like a TV show in July. Of course, if LeBron loses, this wouldn't be the first time the electorate allowed emotion to overpower reason in an award vote. But that doesn't make the injustice any less objectionable.
