Back on topic, I think it's possible Keenum could go as high as the second round if he has a really great season, but big conference bias exists for a reason... STRENGTH OF SCHEDULE. If you don't play anybody, no one will take you seriously.
Occasionally, though, small-school QBs get picked because of an amazing amount of talent and skill... Does Keenum have it? I guess we'll see. They play UCLA at the Rose Bowl, Mississippi State at home, and TTU at Lubbock.
How they compete against these semi-competitive teams of good conferences will determine his legacy and draft rank.