East First Round: [#8] Philadelphia 76ers vs. [#1] Chicago Bulls (Rose Tears ACL)

[FedEx227]

I'd say 3 or 4 seed. That seems to be realistic given their ability to beat some bad teams during the Regular Season. A lot depends on how they go about this offseason and the future. If GarPax wants to believe that this team was a Rose injury away from winning a title, we'll be the 1-3 seed for the next 5 years, tread water and maybe get a title out of it, but if they recognize the shortcomings of this team and realize the need for another scorer/slasher then it could be a whole different story next year as well.

 

[FirstTimer]

I'd say 3 or 4 seed. That seems to be realistic given their ability to beat some bad teams during the Regular Season. A lot depends on how they go about this offseason and the future. If GarPax wants to believe that this team was a Rose injury away from winning a title, we'll be the 1-3 seed for the next 5 years, tread water and maybe get a title out of it, but if they recognize the shortcomings of this team and realize the need for another scorer/slasher then it could be a whole different story next year as well.

I can tell you already that I'm really worried about Indiana next season. The more I watch them the more I like them and the more they scare me.

The Bulls are so damn handcuffed for next year salary wise I just don't know what they can do. If they can somehow convince Ray Allen to come for the MLE that will help a ton...but...how much?

 

[FedEx227]

Well yes and no. If they waive Brewer, Watson and all but $500,000 of Korver they get around $13 million in cap space. Then again, I'm not sure if waiving works the same as expired deals (so I'm not positive if that would increase our soft cap space).

http://www.hoopsworld.com/chicago-bulls-team-salary

 

[FirstTimer]

Well yes and no. If they waive Brewer, Watson and all but $500,000 of Korver they get around $13 million in cap space. Then again, I'm not sure if waiving works the same as expired deals (so I'm not positive if that would increase our soft cap space).

http://www.hoopsworld.com/chicago-bulls-team-salary

For some reason I thought those deals came off after NEXT season.

I would assume there is some penalty for waiving non-expireds....then again the NBA's salary structure is a fucking horrible mess.

 

[FedEx227]

I won't lie, I usually understand but with these guys I have absolutely no idea. When I get some time I'm going to look at the Dallas Mavericks (they are a team who did a lot of non-guaranteed waives) to see how it changed their cap.

 

[FedEx227]

Boom, they had an article on HoopsWorld:

Chicago Bulls

Right now the Bulls are tax payers in 2012-13, sitting on $76.0 million to 10 players. The 29th pick in the draft will add about a million and tack on a minimum salary cap hold. They can use the mini-MLE, but it will cost them $6 million to do so with the tax. They can lower their obligations significantly if they waive Kyle Korver, Ronnie Brewer and C.J. Watson (the latter two by July 10th). They will pay just $500,000 to Korver instead of a combined $12.6 million. However, considering how good the Bulls were this past year, does it make sense to waive those players? They would still be over the cap so they would be limited to exception money (MLE and BAE) plus minimum salary deals to replace that trio. It’s unlikely that would make the team better. Amnesty is still an option for the Bulls.

So waiving those guys would give them that space. The issue is, you're left with a pretty bad roster for next year but I'm okay with that. Sign some MLE guys, let them expire in 13-14, amnesty Boozer when Rose is back in full health and try to get a free agent that offseason.

The real issue is paying Joakim Noah and Luol Deng like stars. That's going to be a huge problem. It's going to force us to let Taj Gibson go.

 

[FirstTimer]

Boom, they had an article on HoopsWorld:



So waiving those guys would give them that space. The issue is, you're left with a pretty bad roster for next year but I'm okay with that. Sign some MLE guys, let them expire in 13-14, amnesty Boozer when Rose is back in full health and try to get a free agent that offseason.

The real issue is paying Joakim Noah and Luol Deng like stars. That's going to be a huge problem.

Yikes.

So basically this Bulls "window" is about closed. Maybe opened a crack?

Have to hope Mirotic is pretty damn good and you can bring him over after next year.

The Noah and Deng contracts could be :cano: worthy..especially if they are untradable. I still hope the Bulls can trick Philly into trading Iggy for Deng as has been rumored in the past

 

[FedEx227]

The best move would honestly be to resign all of those guys, pay the tax next year, let them all expire and amnesty Boozer. What the article seems to indicate is that waiving them now will save money, but they'll still be in the tax and only able to still hand out some MLEs. I'd just bring them back next year and make 13-14 the big rebuild.

The issue becomes do you give money to Taj Gibson or do you go for big free agent with a really thin roster? It's going to be nearly impossible to sign him for what he'll likely get on the market and try to bring in another free agent. You simply can't have 5 big money guys on your roster.

Mirotic is going to be huge going forward, he's the real key as he's an affordable piece. The Noah/Deng albatrosses are just sitting there and making it very difficult for them to do anything.

 

[FirstTimer]

The best move would honestly be to resign all of those guys, pay the tax next year, let them all expire and amnesty Boozer. What the article seems to indicate is that waiving them now will save money, but they'll still be in the tax and only able to still hand out some MLEs. I'd just bring them back next year and make 13-14 the big rebuild.

The issue becomes do you give money to Taj Gibson or do you go for big free agent with a really thin roster? It's going to be nearly impossible to sign him for what he'll likely get on the market and try to bring in another free agent. You simply can't have 5 big money guys on your roster.

Mirotic is going to be huge going forward, he's the real key as he's an affordable piece. The Noah/Deng albatrosses are just sitting there and making it very difficult for them to do anything.

Yeah, big picture if you are going to amnesty Boozer doesn't that free up money for Taj? Also, would he be a RFA so the Bulls could control that a bit I suppose. The sooner this organization can move Deng or Noah the better. If Mirotic is as good as advertised..or at least close I like what the Bulls can build around with a signing or two. If he's not you basically havea team that went from a perennial 1-2 seed to a perennial 3-4 seed pretty quickly. Think a decade or so of the 94-95 Bulls (Pre MJ-comeback) fan experience/results wise.


The big problem is your big money guys aren't going to get any better, Boozer is going to decline, God knows how Rose comes back from the ACL(Rose could improve but the injury worries you). Deng is what he is, Noah is what he is. There's really no "upside" left on the roster. Taj maybe has a little left but at best I'm not sure he's anything more than a poor man's David West(pre injury). Omer is pretty maxed out IMO....Jimmy Butler? :lol: All of the Bulls big money has serious questions. Their bench has been exposed etc.


It's REALLY important they hit on draft picks. That Charlotte pick that becomes less and less protected over the next few years could be huge.

 

[FedEx227]

But the thing is, the Boozer money frees up for Taj, but is that really what you want to use most of your money on? If you sign Taj you're pretty much leaving yourself with a smaller window to get another scorer.

You're essentially looking at a 13-14 roster of

Rose - Some $10 million and under SG - Deng - Gibson - Noah as a luxury tax team. That's not including a really thin bench of MLE guys.

 

[FirstTimer]

But the thing is, the Boozer money frees up for Taj, but is that really what you want to use most of your money on? If you sign Taj you're pretty much leaving yourself with a smaller window to get another scorer.

You're essentially looking at a 13-14 roster of

Rose - Some $10 million and under SG - Deng - Gibson - Noah as a luxury tax team. That's not including a really thin bench of MLE guys.

uke:

Bad bad bad.

Well, some of it depends how much Taj wants/is being offered. Hoops hype has his QA at just over $3 million as of now. That's managable. You have to hope you can lock him up long term somewhat affordabley but you know Taj's agent is licking his lips right now with the way his guy has played.

I'm not sure there is any real clean way out of this at this point. Like I've said all season the NBA is being built around super stars...the Bulls sunk money into middle tier players paid them borderline super star money, and their one true super star just tore his ACL.

 

[FirstTimer]

I see no road map out of this wilderness of NBA mediocrity.

 

[FedEx227]

That QA probably increased by about $7-8 million now, I'd say he's up around $10 million per year easily. It's two straight playoffs now where he's stepped up and all but replaced Boozer. Teams love the idea of a guy who in limited minutes produces big numbers especially on the boards. That bodes well for long term success if given more minutes.

So if you do amnesty Boozer and sign Taj, you're looking at $8-12 probably taken up from him, so without looking at the numbers again, only about $12-16 to sign another big scorer, but no star is going to be had for that price.

 

[FirstTimer]

That QA probably increased by about $7-8 million now, I'd say he's up around $10 million per year easily. It's two straight playoffs now where he's stepped up and all but replaced Boozer. Teams love the idea of a guy who in limited minutes produces big numbers especially on the boards. That bodes well for long term success if given more minutes.

So if you do amnesty Boozer and sign Taj, you're looking at $8-12 probably taken up from him, so without looking at the numbers again, only about $12-16 to sign another big scorer, but no star is going to be had for that price.

Have to hope the player evaluation department can find a guy like Nick Young, Wilson Chandler etc that is cheap, can be had in a trade but has the bigger potential as a scorer and "off teh bounce" guy from the wing. Basically it revolves around falling ass first into a good 2 guard.

How nice would a Rudy Gay signing have been about now?

 

[FedEx227]

Memphis may not be able to match a qualifying offer for OJ Mayo, so he's an option as well. Nick Young would be easier since he's unrestricted. Let me take a look at 13-14 and see who will be around.

 

[FedEx227]

Josh Smith, Kevin Martin, David West, Chris Paul, Monta Ellis, James Harden, Tyreke Evans (restricted).

There's a few I like there for the Bulls mainly Smith, Ellis, Harden. I'd say fuck it to this offseason, tread water and go for a pretty hefty rebuild in 13-14.

 

[FirstTimer]

Josh Smith, Kevin Martin, David West, Chris Paul, Monta Ellis, James Harden, Tyreke Evans (restricted).

There's a few I like there for the Bulls mainly Smith, Ellis, Harden. I'd say fuck it to this offseason, tread water and go for a pretty hefty rebuild in 13-14.

None of those names really inspires much out of me. Harden would be the one guy that jumps off the page at me. Then maybe Ellis...after that...FML.

 

[FedEx227]

And I'm assuming Harden is smart enough to stick with OKC and run with them. If he resigns there, we're looking at potential dynasty in Oklahoma City. 3 star or near-star level players.

 

[FedEx227]

But not one of them hits their chest or does a gun move after they hit a jump shot.

 

[nwfisch]

Yikes.

So basically this Bulls "window" is about closed. Maybe opened a crack?

Have to hope Mirotic is pretty damn good and you can bring him over after next year.

The Noah and Deng contracts could be :cano: worthy..especially if they are untradable. I still hope the Bulls can trick Philly into trading Iggy for Deng as has been rumored in the past

If Rashard Lewis and Gilbert Arenas can be traded at their hefty contracts, I would think a team would be "stupid" enough to take Deng or Noah.