ESPN Insider Tournament Stuff

[Rudi]

The 10 most likely early upsets

Now that the NCAA tournament selection committee has spoken, it's our turn for a pronouncement: If you like big upsets, the kind we specialize in predicting here at GK Central, 2012 is going to be a whole lot more fun than 2011. Our model predicts a total of 3.4 upsets in the first and second rounds in this year's tournament, up from 2.2 last year.

If you're new to the blog, the definition and methodology for Giant Killers is conveniently located here. Take a look because it will help you understand and digest our early predictions.

In stark contrast to last season, nearly every mid-major and small conference is sending its best Giant-Killing prospect to the big dance. And it's not just teams with automatic bids that are attending the assassins' ball. Mid-majors earned 11 at-large bids on Sunday, up from six last season. So even though Creighton, St. Louis, St. Mary's and Southern Mississippi landed in the middle of their brackets instead of in GK contests, and Murray State and Wichita State got seeded so high that they're Giants, not Killers, there's still plenty of potential for slayage. To prime you for deeper regional breakdowns on Monday and Tuesday, here's an early look at the top 10 most likely upsets for the 2012 tournament.

The most vulnerable Giants, including Vanderbilt, Florida State and Baylor, managed to avoid collisions with the top potential Killers, such as Belmont and VCU. That means no single matchup causes our model to rave the way it did about, say, Cornell and Murray State in the first round in 2010. But it also means a slew of underdogs have a puncher's chance this time around.

Starting Monday, we will offer a full breakdown on every David and Goliath to give you plenty of time to sculpt your brackets. But for the moment, here are our top 10 picks for opening-game GK upsets.

No. 12 Long Beach State vs. No. 5 New Mexico (West)
Predicted chance of upset: 41.0 percent

No. 14 Belmont vs. No. 3 Georgetown (Midwest)
Predicted chance of upset: 29.6 percent

No. 13 Davidson vs. No. 4 Louisville (West)
Predicted chance of upset: 29.1 percent

No. 12 VCU vs. No. 5 Wichita State (South)
Predicted chance of upset: 26.9 percent

No. 13 Ohio vs. No. 4 Michigan (Midwest)
Predicted chance of upset: 22.4 percent

No. 14 St. Bonaventure vs. No. 3 Florida State (East)
Predicted chance of upset: 22.1 percent

No. 12 Harvard vs. No. 5 Vanderbilt (East)
Predicted chance of upset: 19.7 percent

No. 14 South Dakota State vs. No. 3 Baylor (South)
Predicted chance of upset: 19.0 percent

No. 14 Iona* vs. No. 3 Marquette (West)
Predicted chance of upset: 18.1 percent
* If advance past BYU in first-round game

No. 13 New Mexico State vs. No. 4 Indiana (South)
Predicted chance of upset: 17.2 percent

 

[Rudi]

Take a look inside the data used by the selection committee in seeding the bracket:

TEAM DATA
Points per game: 71
Points allowed: 61.8
Scoring margin: +9.2 FG percentage: .479
FG allowed: .412
3PT percentage: .368
3PT allowed: .328
3PT-to-FG attempts: .229
FT percentage: .746
FT totals: 468/627
Rebound margin: +1.2
Turnover margin: -0.9
Assist-to-turnover ratio: 1.31:1
Assist-to-FG ratio: 0.61:1

CALIFORNIA SCOUTING REPORT
Offensive Preference Mike Montgomery's bread and butter is a classic motion offense with plenty of baseline screens and cuts. Ideally, it creates space for the guards to create and preys on defenses not willing to work hard for an entire possession.
Defensive Philosophy Much of what Cal wants to accomplish defensively is dictated by the guards pressuring the ball and Jorge Gutierrez, the Pac-12 Defensive Player of the Year, is one of the best at it. Otherwise, it's nothing fancy, just straight ahead, hard-nosed man-to-man.
Secret Strength The Bears are very good shot makers, largely because they take good shots. Cal led the Pac-12 and was in the top 25 in the country in both field goal percentage and assists, and took by far the fewest number of 3-pointers in the conference.
Achilles' Heel Cal is not supremely athletic. The Bears struggle to break down their man individually and no one is especially adept at creating his own shot.
Will Lose When ... It sounds simple, but when they don't make shots. Cal was unbeaten in the regular season when it shot a higher percentage than its opponents. When the opposition was more accurate, Cal didn't win once.
Famous Last Words The Pac-12 is not producing the kind of talent it was a few years ago. With a great coach and veterans in Gutierrez and Harper Kamp, Cal fared well in league play but didn't produce much outside of the Pac-12, so postseason expectations shouldn't be too high.

Player statistics are for the regular season only.
THE PLAYERS
Starters
Pos. Player Min. Basics Good Bad
1 Justin Cobbs
(6-2, 195 lb., SO) 32.0 mpg 12.8 ppg, 5.1 apg .815 FT .476 FG
Comment: Cobbs barely got off the bench two seasons ago at Minnesota, but improved during his year off and became a starter almost immediately at Cal. A good penetrator and distributor, he now looks for his own offense.
Pos. Player Min. Basics Good Bad
2 Jorge Gutierrez
(6-3, 195 lb., SR) 31.7 mpg 12.9 ppg, 5.3 rpg .788 FT .294 3PT
Comment: The heart and soul of the Bears, Gutierrez has remained one of the country's best on-the-ball defenders throughout his career and has steadily improved his offense, developing a solid midrange game. His late-season slump is directly related to Cal's struggles.
Pos. Player Min. Basics Good Bad
3 Allen Crabbe
(6-6, 205 lb., SO) 33.8 mpg 15.4 ppg, 5.6 rpg .833 FT .439 FG
Comment: Last year's Pac-12 Freshman of the Year, Crabbe has been one of the best shooters in the conference and one of its hardest workers. Crabbe began developing a big-shot mentality this year and has become more adept at going to the basket, usually off the right hand.
Pos. Player Min. Basics Good Bad
4 Harper Kamp
(6-8, 245 lb., SR) 29.5 mpg 11.3 ppg, 5.1 rpg .555 FG .760 FT
Comment: Kamp is built in the mold of an old school post player, a Dave Cowens-type. He grinds, is strong and passes well, but mostly is clever in getting off a variety of shots on the low block.
Pos. Player Min. Basics Good Bad
5 David Kravish
(6-9, 210 lb., FR) 24.6 mpg 7.0 ppg, 5.7 rpg .586 FG .653 FT
Comment: The slightly built Kravish is a good shot blocker and post passer, but is probably playing more minutes than Montgomery would like in the early stage of his career.
Rotation
Pos. Player Min. Basics Good Bad
G Brandon Smith
(5-11, 185 lb., JR) 17.8 mpg 3.1 ppg, 2.4 apg .676 FT .341 FG
Comment: Smith was a starter the second half of last season and plays the point when he's in, with Cobb moving off the ball. He's quick and knows his job is to get Crabbe, Kamp and Gutierrez the ball, but isn't a shooting threat.
F Robert Thurman
(6-10, 250 lb., JR) 10.9 mpg 3.8 ppg, 1.8 rpg .644 FG .529 FT
Comment: A big-bodied walk-on, Thurman barely played as a sophomore, but now is a regular in the frontcourt rotation. He provides the Bears some much needed physicality.
F Bak Bak
(6-9, 225 lb., JR) 6.2 mpg 1.9 ppg, 1.4 rpg .575 FG .714 FT
Comment: Bak provides spot minutes up front, generally just to make sure Kamp and Kravish aren't overused. Other than setting a high ball screen, Bak isn't going to wander much more than two feet from the basket.

SEASON NOTES
High point On Jan. 19, Cal was already off to a 5-1 start in Pac-12 play, but no win would measure up to going into Seattle and slowing down Washington in a 69-66 win.
Lowlight With a chance to tie Washington for the Pac-12 crown and grab the top seed in the conference tournament, the Bears came out flat and never totally recovered, losing to rival Stanford on the final day of regular season.
Most Revealing Moment The Washington win was the first game Cal played after sophomore forward Richard Solomon was ruled academically ineligible. The 6-foot-10, 210-pound Solomon was Cal's leading rebounder. His loss made a thin frontcourt and thin bench even skinnier.
Did You Know? While it has been well documented that this was a down year in the Pac-12, Cal's 13 league wins were tied for the second-most in program history, only outdone by the 1957 and 1959 teams that won the old Pacific Coast Conference.

TOURNAMENT HISTORY
64-team era Overall
NCAA appearances: 11
Seed average: 7.4
Highest seed: 5
Lowest seed: 12
Biggest upset: 1993 vs. No. 3 Duke
Most upsetting: 1994 vs. No. 12 Wisconsin-Green Bay
NCAA appearances: 16
All-time record: 19-16 (.543)
Best finish: 1959, National Champions
Coach's NCAA record: Mike Montgomery (17-14, .548)

 

[Rudi]

USF

TEAM DATA
Points per game: 59
Points allowed: 56.9
Scoring margin: +2.1 FG percentage: .436
FG allowed: .388
3PT percentage: .316
3PT allowed: .297
3PT-to-FG attempts: .301
FT percentage: .705
FT totals: 387/549
Rebound margin: +1.2
Turnover margin: +1.2
Assist-to-turnover ratio: 0.87:1
Assist-to-FG ratio: 0.55:1

SOUTH FLORIDA SCOUTING REPORT
Offensive Preference These Bulls don't run. Their go-slow approach eats at least 25 seconds per trip. USF is balanced, but the lowest-scoring team in the Big East didn't have a single player average double figures in the regular season. The Bulls give new meaning to the term "winning ugly."
Defensive Philosophy Hand in the face, man-to-man defense. They also utilize 2-3 and 1-3-1 zone looks. The Bulls set a Big East record for scoring defense, and they don't allow opponents to beat them with the 3-point shot.
Secret Strength They'll get after you, but they keep it clean. The Bulls do a good job of staying out of foul trouble and they typically won't let an opponent beat them at the free throw line.
Achilles' Heel The age-old adage claims "defense wins championships," but unless the Bulls pitch shutouts all the way to New Orleans, sooner rather than later, an opponent will score enough to beat them.
Will Lose When … They don't take care of the ball. USF has one of the worst turnover margins in Division I. The way their offense eats clock, the Bulls can't afford to give away possessions. Each time they turn it over, they risk going into an extended scoring drought.
Famous Last Words The Bulls feel like they're a team of destiny, and in a year in which Tim Tebow won an NFL playoff game and Jeremy Lin enjoyed a stint as king of New York, why not? The answer: Because they simply don't score enough for any sort of prolonged run.

Player statistics are for the regular season only.
THE PLAYERS
Starters
Pos. Player Min. Basics Good Bad
1 Anthony Collins
(6-1, 180 pounds, FR) 32.1 mpg 8.3 ppg, 5.3 apg 1.6 spg 3.5 tpg
Comment: Counted on to control the slow pace of USF's offense, the all-conference rookie is the key to maximizing each possession. A good distributor and facilitator, and like everyone else in this rotation, he has to contribute points for them to succeed.
Pos. Player Min. Basics Good Bad
2 Hugh Robertson
(6-6, 200 pounds, SR) 28.7 mpg 6.7 ppg, 4.4 rpg .528 FG .207 3PT
Comment: Excellent defender and a strong rebounding guard who grabbed 21 boards in a single game earlier this season. Also has a good midrange jump shot.
Pos. Player Min. Basics Good Bad
3 Victor Rudd Jr.
(6-7, 208 pounds, SO) 26.8 mpg 8.5 ppg, 4.5 rpg 1.3 apg .357 FG
Comment: Do yourself a favor and google "Victor Rudd Jr. dunk" -- trust us, it's worth it. He's capable of delivering one of those "wow" moments any time he attacks the basket. Also will hit from the perimeter if left open.
Pos. Player Min. Basics Good Bad
4 Ron Anderson Jr.
(6-8, 237 pounds, SR) 26.3 mpg 7.3 ppg, 5.6 rpg .558 FG .495 FT
Comment: The son of former NBA player Ron Anderson transferred to USF from Kansas State. He's a solid role player who does a little bit of everything.
Pos. Player Min. Basics Good Bad
5 Augustus Gilchrist
(6-10, 241 pounds, SR) 27.9 mpg 9.6 ppg, 4.9 rpg 1.2 bpg .273 3PT
Comment: USF's leading scorer became the 18th member of the school's 1,000-point club earlier this season. Provides a physical shot-blocking and rebounding presence in the back of the defense.
Rotation
Pos. Player Min. Basics Good Bad
F Toarlyn Fitzpatrick
(6-8, 243 pounds, JR) 25.5 mpg 8.2 ppg, 6.5 rpg .409 3PT .696 FT
Comment: The best rebounder on the team is also one of the best 3-point shooters in the Big East.
G Jawanza Poland
(6-4, 200 pounds, JR) 23.3 mpg 8.7 ppg, 3.6 rpg .750 FT .262 3PT
Comment: USF's best scoring guard provides much-needed offense coming off the bench. Most productive when he attacks the basket to get his points.
G Blake Nash
(6-1, 190 pounds, SO) 13.1 mpg 3.8 ppg, 1.1 apg .824 FT .389 FG
Comment: A good ball handler, Nash filled the stat sheet in an early conference win over Villanova. It was his best game of the season, but since then, his minutes and production have dropped off.

SEASON NOTES
High point Getting an invitation to the Big Dance. It is the school's first NCAA tournament berth in 20 years. Stan Heath earning Big East Coach of the Year honors is icing on the cake for a team picked to finish 14th in the Big East.
Lowlight On Feb. 4, at 14th-ranked Georgetown, USF went scoreless for almost 11 minutes on its way to an embarrassing 75-45 loss. The Bulls turned the ball over on nine straight possessions and suffered their fourth 20-plus-point loss of the season.
Most Revealing Moment On Leap Day, at 18th-ranked Louisville, the Bulls' defense gave the Cardinals the horns on their way to a 58-51 win. The elusive signature win, which their coach called the program's biggest win since he arrived, improved USF's tournament cause by leaps and bounds.
Did You Know? Heath is no stranger to the glass slipper. As a rookie head coach at Kent State, his 10-seed Golden Flashes shocked 3-seed Pittsburgh in the Sweet 16 -- on their way to the Elite Eight in the 2002 NCAA tourney.

TOURNAMENT HISTORY
64-team era Overall
NCAA appearances: 2
Seed average: 13
Highest seed: 11
Lowest seed: 15
Biggest upset: None
Most upsetting: None
NCAA appearances: 2
All-time record: 0-2 (0.000)
Best finish: 1990, 1992, first round
Coach's NCAA record: Stan Heath (3-3, .500)

 

[Rudi]

WVU

TEAM DATA
Points per game: 76
Points allowed: 67.7
Scoring margin: +8.3 FG percentage: .457
FG allowed: .411
3PT percentage: .370
3PT allowed: .313
3PT-to-FG attempts: .385
FT percentage: .747
FT totals: 608/814
Rebound margin: +1.2
Turnover margin: +1.1
Assist-to-turnover ratio: 1.02:1
Assist-to-FG ratio: 0.54:1

WEST VIRGINIA SCOUTING REPORT
Offensive Preference The Mountaineers spread their offense and use a lot of motion in their half-court sets. They are not a good 3-point shooting team, but that doesn't stop them from hoisting shots from outside.
Defensive Philosophy Depends on the possession. Bob Huggins favors an aggressive man-to-man look, but he's been known to switch to both 1-3-1 and 2-3 zone looks and apply full-court pressure.
Secret Strength Not a very good jump shooting team, but the Mountaineers make up for it on the offensive glass. Kevin Jones leads the way and West Virginia led the Big East in second chance points.
Achilles' Heel The Mountaineers count on Jones and Darryl Bryant to make plays and carry the scoring load, but they're both guilty of too often settling for low percentage jump shots instead of attacking the basket.
Will Lose When ... They don't get back on defense. Especially for a coach like Huggins who stresses defense, this has to be a mind-blowing trend. Opponents have been beating them down the court and it has cost them.
Famous Last Words It has been more than two months since the Mountaineers have notched an impressive win. They'll inevitably start taking bad shots, and they'll pay for it on both ends. An NCAA Tournament win will be tough to come by.

Starters
Pos. Player Min. Basics Good Bad
1 Jabarie Hinds
(5-11, 175 lb., FR) 28.9 mpg 7.6 ppg, 3.3 apg 1.4 spg .659 FT
Comment: The slasher runs the offense when he's in the game. Good court vision, gets into the lane, and goes strong to the basket.
Pos. Player Min. Basics Good Bad
2 Darryl Bryant
(6-2, 195 lb., SR) 37.3 mpg 17.2 ppg, 2.8 apg 3.1 rpg .362 FG
Comment: The combo guard has been playing more off the ball this season. "Truck" has stalled a bit and his struggles mirror those of the Mountaineers. He's streaky from deep and too often forces long jumpers early in a possession.
Pos. Player Min. Basics Good Bad
3 Keaton Miles
(6-6, 205 lb., FR) 13.1 mpg 1.4 ppg, 2.0 rpg 1.2 apg .304 FG
Comment: The athletic but inconsistent swingman is a work in progress and often gets an early hook.
Pos. Player Min. Basics Good Bad
4 Kevin Jones
(6-8, 260 lb., SR) 38.3 mpg 20.1 ppg, 11.1 rpg .513 FG .272 3PT
Comment: The leading scorer and rebounder in the conference, Mountaineer fans are up in arms that Jones was passed over for Big East Player of the Year (in favor of Marquette's Jae Crowder). Dominates the offensive glass and if he gets a clean outside look, he'll drain it.
Pos. Player Min. Basics Good Bad
5 Deniz Kilicli
(6-9, 260 lb., JR) 26.7 mpg 10.7 ppg, 5.4 rpg .502 FG .556 FT
Comment: The tough, native of Turkey is built like a rugby player and he's a physical force down low. Struggles when he gets the ball in traffic.
Rotation
Pos. Player Min. Basics Good Bad
G Gary Browne
(6-1, 185 lb., FR) 25.6 mpg 6.2 ppg, 3.0 apg 3.9 rpg .233 3PT
Comment: Plays fast and furious and immediately ramps up the tempo when he enters the game. His speed combined with good hands results in steals and fast break opportunities.
G Aaron Brown
(6-5, 220 lb., FR) 15.3 mpg 4.3 ppg, 1.7 rpg .403 3PT .500 FT
Comment: The lefty guard comes off the bench to be a tough defender and a deep threat.
F Dominique Rutledge
(6-8, 240 lb., JR) 7.3 mpg 1.9 ppg, 2.5 rpg .512 FG .333 FT
Comment: Rutledge might be West Virginia's best athlete, but the key for him is to get involved as soon as he comes into the game. His confidence skyrockets with an early basket and he becomes a much more active player at both ends of the floor.

Bracket projection: West Virginia
West Virginia heading into tournament with little momentum
Updated: March 9, 2012, 1:49 PM ET
By Paul Aspan | Special to Insider

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Note: For the seventh consecutive year, ESPN's Joe Lunardi has assigned a team of Bracketologists to put together Insider's Tournament Tips, offering in-depth breakdowns and historical analysis of the bracket for all 68 tournament teams to help you make smart picks.

Plus, you can enlist the help of Insider's Bracket Predictor tool to aid your picks.

Once the action starts, follow all the games on your desktop with our discreet RealTime Scoreboard.

West Virginia's complete Bracketology chart

Take a look inside the data used by the selection committee in seeding the bracket:

WEST VIRGINIA SCOUTING REPORT
Offensive Preference The Mountaineers spread their offense and use a lot of motion in their half-court sets. They are not a good 3-point shooting team, but that doesn't stop them from hoisting shots from outside.
Defensive Philosophy Depends on the possession. Bob Huggins favors an aggressive man-to-man look, but he's been known to switch to both 1-3-1 and 2-3 zone looks and apply full-court pressure.
Secret Strength Not a very good jump shooting team, but the Mountaineers make up for it on the offensive glass. Kevin Jones leads the way and West Virginia led the Big East in second chance points.
Achilles' Heel The Mountaineers count on Jones and Darryl Bryant to make plays and carry the scoring load, but they're both guilty of too often settling for low percentage jump shots instead of attacking the basket.
Will Lose When ... They don't get back on defense. Especially for a coach like Huggins who stresses defense, this has to be a mind-blowing trend. Opponents have been beating them down the court and it has cost them.
Famous Last Words It has been more than two months since the Mountaineers have notched an impressive win. They'll inevitably start taking bad shots, and they'll pay for it on both ends. An NCAA Tournament win will be tough to come by.

Player statistics are for the regular season only.
THE PLAYERS

Starters
Pos. Player Min. Basics Good Bad
1 Jabarie Hinds
(5-11, 175 lb., FR) 28.9 mpg 7.6 ppg, 3.3 apg 1.4 spg .659 FT
Comment: The slasher runs the offense when he's in the game. Good court vision, gets into the lane, and goes strong to the basket.
Pos. Player Min. Basics Good Bad
2 Darryl Bryant
(6-2, 195 lb., SR) 37.3 mpg 17.2 ppg, 2.8 apg 3.1 rpg .362 FG
Comment: The combo guard has been playing more off the ball this season. "Truck" has stalled a bit and his struggles mirror those of the Mountaineers. He's streaky from deep and too often forces long jumpers early in a possession.
Pos. Player Min. Basics Good Bad
3 Keaton Miles
(6-6, 205 lb., FR) 13.1 mpg 1.4 ppg, 2.0 rpg 1.2 apg .304 FG
Comment: The athletic but inconsistent swingman is a work in progress and often gets an early hook.
Pos. Player Min. Basics Good Bad
4 Kevin Jones
(6-8, 260 lb., SR) 38.3 mpg 20.1 ppg, 11.1 rpg .513 FG .272 3PT
Comment: The leading scorer and rebounder in the conference, Mountaineer fans are up in arms that Jones was passed over for Big East Player of the Year (in favor of Marquette's Jae Crowder). Dominates the offensive glass and if he gets a clean outside look, he'll drain it.
Pos. Player Min. Basics Good Bad
5 Deniz Kilicli
(6-9, 260 lb., JR) 26.7 mpg 10.7 ppg, 5.4 rpg .502 FG .556 FT
Comment: The tough, native of Turkey is built like a rugby player and he's a physical force down low. Struggles when he gets the ball in traffic.
Rotation
Pos. Player Min. Basics Good Bad
G Gary Browne
(6-1, 185 lb., FR) 25.6 mpg 6.2 ppg, 3.0 apg 3.9 rpg .233 3PT
Comment: Plays fast and furious and immediately ramps up the tempo when he enters the game. His speed combined with good hands results in steals and fast break opportunities.
G Aaron Brown
(6-5, 220 lb., FR) 15.3 mpg 4.3 ppg, 1.7 rpg .403 3PT .500 FT
Comment: The lefty guard comes off the bench to be a tough defender and a deep threat.
F Dominique Rutledge
(6-8, 240 lb., JR) 7.3 mpg 1.9 ppg, 2.5 rpg .512 FG .333 FT
Comment: Rutledge might be West Virginia's best athlete, but the key for him is to get involved as soon as he comes into the game. His confidence skyrockets with an early basket and he becomes a much more active player at both ends of the floor.

SEASON NOTES

High point Early in Big East play, Bryant and Jones combined for 47 points and West Virginia upended ninth-ranked Georgetown 74-62. The Mountaineers made it five straight over the Hoyas and jumped out to a 3-1 start in conference play.
Lowlight After blowing a 15-point second half lead to 10th-ranked Marquette at home late in the season, "Huggy Bear" needed a hug. In the aftermath of the loss, Huggins confessed he was "as frustrated as I've been since my first year at Walsh College."
Most Revealing Moment On February 22 in South Bend, a two-point game at halftime turned into a 27-point loss to 18th-ranked Notre Dame. "We are probably the most non-athletic team in the league," is how Huggins described his team afterward.
Did You Know? Jones is the second player in West Virginia history to register 1,700 points and 1,000 rebounds in his career. Jerry West is the other.

64-team era Overall
NCAA appearances: 11

Seed average: 7

Highest seed: 2

Lowest seed: 12

Biggest upset: 1998 vs. No. 2 Wake Forest

Most upsetting: 2009 vs. No. 11 Dayton
NCAA appearances: 24

All-time record: 25-24 (.510)

Best finish: 1959, Runner-up

Coach's NCAA record: Bob Huggins (27-19, .587)

 

[Rudi]

There are team pages for every team..so at this point Ill just take requests

 

[Rudi]

New Mexico

TEAM DATA
Points per game: 73
Points allowed: 65.9
Scoring margin: +7.1 FG percentage: .461
FG allowed: .423
3PT percentage: .347
3PT allowed: .331
3PT-to-FG attempts: .334
FT percentage: .708
FT totals: 551/778
Rebound margin: +1.3
Turnover margin: +1.0
Assist-to-turnover ratio: 1.14:1
Assist-to-FG ratio: 0.61:1

NEW MEXICO SCOUTING REPORT
Offensive Preference New Mexico is at its best when everyone gets involved. The Lobos will selectively run but are most successful when they are in the half court and run their sets with multiple touches. It is no accident that New Mexico is eighth in the nation in assists per game, which also explains how another 20-win season came without even having a 13-points-per-game scorer.
Defensive Philosophy The Lobos don't do anything special in their man-to-man except give a genuine effort on each possession. The guards chase and A.J. Hardeman and Drew Gordon do a solid job of protecting the rim, but the biggest asset is depth. Steve Alford uses his extra pieces to keep everyone fresh and playing hard all the time. The end result is the fourth-best field goal percentage defense in the country.
Secret Strength With Gordon leading the way, the Lobos don't lose games on the glass. They outrebounded opponents in 27 of their 30 regular-season games and New Mexico's biggest rebound deficit in those three games was just three.
Achilles' Heel Watch the 3-point attempts. Not that New Mexico is a bad long-range shooting team, but the Lobos aren't good in volume, and especially not good when those shots come outside of the offense's flow.
Will Lose When ... New Mexico is a rhythm offensive team and if the game gets ragged or too up-tempo, the Lobos can struggle. That can minimize the impact of Gordon and New Mexico's biggest strength -- its half-court defense.
Famous Last Words This isn't Alford's most talented team, but it is one of his most successful and a sign that he really has built something in Albuquerque. Gordon is the kind of player who, by taking his game to a slightly higher level, could get the Lobos a couple of wins. However, chances are there isn't quite enough here for New Mexico to be around in the second weekend.

Player statistics are for the regular season only.
THE PLAYERS
Starters
Pos. Player Min. Basics Good Bad
1 Hugh Greenwood
(6-3, 209 lb., FR) 22.1 mpg 6.4 ppg, 2.5 apg 3.5 rpg .360 3PT
Comment: The Aussie import is strong, but is not a particularly good athlete or very quick. He is also still a below-average shooter. Yet he takes care of the ball, is completely unselfish and the Lobos are a better team when Greenwood is on the floor.
Pos. Player Min. Basics Good Bad
2 Kendall Williams
(6-3, 180 lb., SO) 29.5 mpg 12.0 ppg, 3.3 rpg 4.1 apg .439 FG
Comment: Williams was last year's MWC Freshman of the Year, has a quick release and is the Lobos best pure scorer. If Williams scores, New Mexico usually wins. He has future star written all over him.
Pos. Player Min. Basics Good Bad
3 Tony Snell
(6-7, 195 lb., SO) 25.8 mpg 10.8 ppg, 2.8 rpg .820 FT .457 FG
Comment: The rail-thin Snell has a good stroke and would much prefer to hang around the perimeter than take the ball to the basket. Because he also does a good job feeding the post, Snell is the logical weapon to put on the same side of the floor as Gordon.
Pos. Player Min. Basics Good Bad
4 A.J. Hardeman
(6-8, 235 lb., SR) 21.8 mpg 4.8 ppg, 3.7 rpg .474 FG .461 FT
Comment: The most established of the Lobos, Hardeman has started all but 10 New Mexico games in the past three seasons. He's not asked to score much, but he does anchor the defense, giving Gordon room to roam.
Pos. Player Min. Basics Good Bad
5 Drew Gordon
(6-9, 245 lb., SR) 30.3 mpg 13.2 ppg, 11.0 rpg .538 FG .5 a/to
Comment: Even with just a season and a half in Albuquerque, Gordon has established himself as one of the all-time best double threats in MWC history. Much of the UCLA transfer's reputation is built on rebounding, but he has range to the top of the key and showcases outstanding footwork around the bucket.
Rotation
Pos. Player Min. Basics Good Bad
G Jamal Fenton
(5-9, 168 lb., JR) 17.5 mpg 6.9 ppg, 2.5 apg .405 3PT .632 FT
Comment: As New Mexico's backup point guard, Fenton is the anti-Greenwood. Fenton looks to score first and is quick enough to do it.
G Phillip McDonald
(6-5, 200 lb., SR) 13.5 mpg 6.2 ppg, 1.6 rpg .433 3PT .583 FT
Comment: A three-year starter who lost time this season to the emergence of Williams and Snell, McDonald remains New Mexico's most accurate deep shooter and second-most productive behind Snell.
G Demetrius Walker
(6-2, 200 lb., SO) 16.6 mpg 6.8 ppg, 2.7 rpg .724 FT .389 FG
Comment: Walker is a big-energy guy who can be equal parts spectacular and out of control.

SEASON NOTES
High point From Jan. 25 to Feb. 18, the Lobos ran off seven straight wins capped by a brilliant second half against UNLV in The Pit. New Mexico held the Rebels to 17 points after halftime and won by 20 to grab control of the Mountain West at the time.
Lowlight It's hard to imagine the Lobos would be here today after an overtime loss to Santa Clara in the fourth game of the season. The Broncos went on to finish 0-16 in the WCC. Of course, New Mexico went on a 13-game winning streak after that loss.
Most Revealing Moment The Lobos, with a chance to put a chokehold on the MWC race, may have shown they weren't quite ready for prime time. After winning at San Diego State and then blowing out UNLV at home, New Mexico lost consecutive road games to Colorado State and TCU. Ultimately, that allowed the Aztecs back into the race. The two shared the regular-season crown.
Did You Know? UNLV and San Diego State tend to get more of the national attention from the Mountain West, but it's the Lobos who have won at least part of the regular-season title three of the past four years.

TOURNAMENT HISTORY
64-team era Overall
NCAA appearances: 9
Seed average: 7.4
Highest seed: 3
Lowest seed: 14
Biggest upset: 1999 vs. No. 8 Missouri
Most upsetting: 2010 vs. No. 3 Washington
NCAA appearances: 12
All-time record: 7-13 (0.350)
Best finish: 1996, 1997, 1998, 1999, 2010, Second Round
Coach's NCAA record: Steve Alford (4-5, .444)

LBSU

TEAM DATA
Points per game: 73
Points allowed: 70.5
Scoring margin: +2.5 FG percentage: .448
FG allowed: .447
3PT percentage: .346
3PT allowed: .330
3PT-to-FG attempts: .325
FT percentage: .675
FT totals: 533/790
Rebound margin: +1.2
Turnover margin: +1.1
Assist-to-turnover ratio: 0.94:1
Assist-to-FG ratio: 0.53:1

LONG BEACH STATE SCOUTING REPORT
Offensive Preference Few teams in college hoops can say they have five starters who are all-league selections. Welcome to the 49ers world. Dan Monson's squad share the ball as well as anybody, with all five averaging near double-figures -- led by Wooden Award nominee Casper Ware.
Defensive Philosophy Its full-court pressure and overall quickness helped Long Beach State lead the Big West in steals. The 49ers force turnovers, then capitalizes on them by getting up the floor quickly in transition.
Secret Strength The 49ers feature four battle-tested senior starters that have seen road games at Syracuse, Pitt, Kansas and North Carolina in their four years. That experience could serve them well in the tournament, where half the battle is having been in prior big-game situations.
Achilles' Heel Defensive breakdowns hurt them early in the season, and while they were much improved in conference play, the ability to give up high shooting percentages still remains a concern, especially against BCS-type opponents.
Will Lose When … Someone keeps Ware from filling the scoring column the way he usually does. It won't happen often but the senior point guard will occasionally have an off night (2-for-15 in loss to Cal State Fullerton). It just can't occur in the tournament if the 49ers want to keep playing.
Famous Last Words Long Beach State has the right formula to survive and advance with experience under the bright lights against some tough opponents and a player who can fill it up in Ware. Their guard play could carry them to at least one win. Pencil in the 49ers as a sleeper team.

Player statistics are for the regular season only.
THE PLAYERS
Starters
Pos. Player Min. Basics Good Bad
1 Larry Anderson
(6-5, 210 pounds, SR) 34.7 mpg 14.0 ppg, 5.0 rpg .491 FG 2.2 tpg
Comment: Recognized by the Big West as its top defender, Anderson sprained his right knee in the conference finale at Cal State Fullerton and is the 49ers biggest health concern entering their opening round matchup.
Pos. Player Min. Basics Good Bad
2 Casper Ware
(5-10, 175 pounds, FR) 33.7 mpg 16.9 ppg, 3.2 apg .790 FT 2.3 tpg
Comment: The two-time Big West Player of the Year, Ware finishes particularly well above the rim for a guy his size and embraces the big stage -- just ask North Carolina about his 29 points in Chapel Hill.
Pos. Player Min. Basics Good Bad
3 T.J. Robinson
(6-8, 205 pounds, SR) 31.9 mpg 12.2 ppg, 10.2 rpg .535 FG 2.1 tpg
Comment: The school's all-time leading rebounder, Robinson is as consistent as they come and has averaged a double-double for three consecutive seasons.
Pos. Player Min. Basics Good Bad
4 James Ennis
(6-6, 190 pounds, JR) 28.6 mpg 9.8 ppg, 4.1 rpg .495 FG 2.0 tpg
Comment: Once one of the top juco players in the country, Ennis could be the 49ers' best athlete. He's a high-flyer whose dunking antics are all over YouTube.
Pos. Player Min. Basics Good Bad
5 Eugene Phelps
(6-7, 225 pounds, SR) 27.4 mpg 9.6 ppg, 5.7 rpg .496 FG .464 FT
Comment: Phelps has saved his best basketball for last, becoming a double-figure scorer in conference play. It's a shame he's not a better free-throw shooter, having gotten to the line the second-most on the team.
Rotation
Pos. Player Min. Basics Good Bad
F Mike Caffey
(6-0, 170 pounds, FR) 21.6 mpg 5.8 ppg, 2.8 rpg .438 FG 1.3 tpg
Comment: The team's top bench scorer and backup point man, Caffey makes for a tough matchup for opposing guards with a quick first step and a killer crossover.
F Edis Dervisevic
(6-8, 250 pounds, SR) 16.8 mpg 4.3 ppg, 2.9 rpg .566 FG .429 FT
Comment: The team's emotional leader, Dervisevic returned to the rotation in late January after academic issues and the 49ers have lost just twice since.

SEASON NOTES
High point Three days before Christmas saw the Niners give Monson an early present with a 68-58 upset of 16th-ranked Xavier. The win marked the team's second over a ranked opponent on the season, showing the college basketball world that LBSU wasn't a team you'd want to see in March.
Lowlight Taking on Kansas State on Christmas Day in the Diamond Head Classic, the 49ers committed 10 first-half turnovers and were badly outscored in the paint en route to a 12-point halftime deficit and an eventual 77-60 loss, their largest of the season.
Most Revealing Moment North Carolina got a taste of just how scary Long Beach State could be in early December. The Niners led by five at the half in Chapel Hill and shot 47 percent from the field, eventually losing by eight.
Did You Know? Long Beach State has posted consecutive 20-win seasons, the first time the 49ers program has accomplished that feat since the 1972-73 and 1973-74 campaigns, where they won 26 and 24 games, respectively.

TOURNAMENT HISTORY
64-team era Overall
NCAA appearances: 3
Seed average: 12
Highest seed: 11
Lowest seed: 13
Biggest upset: None
Most upsetting: None
NCAA appearances: 8
All-time record: 7-9 (0.438)
Best finish: 1971, 1972, Third Round
Coach's NCAA record: Dan Monson (3-2, .600)

 

[Blick]

Kansas State and Southern Miss please

 

[Champ]

NC State

 

[Rudi]

Kansas State and Southern Miss please

KState

TEAM DATA
Points per game: 71
Points allowed: 63.7
Scoring margin: +7.3 FG percentage: .443
FG allowed: .408
3PT percentage: .342
3PT allowed: .318
3PT-to-FG attempts: .297
FT percentage: .666
FT totals: 497/746
Rebound margin: +1.2
Turnover margin: -0.9
Assist-to-turnover ratio: 1:1
Assist-to-FG ratio: 0.58:1

KANSAS STATE SCOUTING REPORT
Offensive Preference The first objective for Kansas State is to get the ball inside. The Wildcats will run screen after screen, trying to free up room for cuts and post ups. Frank Martin would rather see the game played inside the 3-point line, where Kansas State tries to grind down the defense.
Defensive Philosophy Kansas State plays in-your-face man-to-man. It's a find-your-guy-and-don't-let-him-loose mentality. The Wildcats want to be physical for 40 minutes and gain their edge by pushing their opponent around.
Secret Strength Perhaps a reflection of Martin's unwavering intensity, the Wildcats are relentless, a trait that manifests itself most clearly on the offensive glass. Not the most skilled offensive team, Kansas State compensates by attacking its own misses, which at least keeps the Wildcats in most games.
Achilles' Heel Blowing leads has been a problem all season for the Wildcats. Up 14 in the second half, Kansas State lost at Iowa State. A 15-point second-half lead disappeared in a loss at Texas. In fact, seven of the Wildcats' nine regular-season losses came after holding second-half leads.
Will Lose When … They don't get to the line. As a team that doesn't mind contact, it ranks in the top 20 nationally in free throw attempts, and a quarter of its offense comes from the stripe. Kansas State just doesn't have the firepower to generate enough points without chances at the free throw line.
Famous Last Words Martin's teams have made a habit of playing their best basketball late in the season, and this edition is no different. It's not always pretty, but the Wildcats' effort and intensity rarely wavers. A tough out, Kansas State probably makes too many mistakes and doesn't shoot well enough for a deep run.

Player statistics are for the regular season only.

THE PLAYERS
Starters
Pos. Player Min. Basics Good Bad
1 Angel Rodriguez
(5-11, 180 pounds, FR) 21.2 mpg 8.0 ppg, 3.2 apg .681 FT .365 FG
Comment: The young guard is adept at getting into the lane and is a solid, if inconsistent, jump shooter, but has also been mistake-prone.
Pos. Player Min. Basics Good Bad
2 Will Spradling
(6-2, 180 pounds, SO) 30.9 mpg 9.5 ppg, 2.2 rpg .820 FT .364 FG
Comment: Spradling is essentially a second point guard, but one who plays more conservatively than Rodriguez. He's also the team's purest shooter and can be a weapon from deep if he's not rushed.
Pos. Player Min. Basics Good Bad
3 Rodney McGruder
(6-4, 205 pounds, JR) 32.7 mpg 15.4 ppg, 5.3 rpg .456 FG .390 3PT
Comment: While not the outside shooter that 2010-11 star Jacob Pullen was, McGruder has assumed the role of go-to scorer. McGruder does his best work slashing to the basket or posting up less physical wings, and also serves as Kansas State's catalyst on defense.
Pos. Player Min. Basics Good Bad
4 Jamar Samuels
(6-7, 230 pounds, SR) 26.5 mpg 10.3 ppg, 6.6 rpg .688 FT .447 FG
Comment: Samuels is the Wildcats' main post presence and has added some bulk to go with his length. He has also become a threat on the perimeter late in the year, taking some pressure off McGruder and Spradling. Perhaps not coincidentally, Kansas State has played its best after Samuels expanded his game.
Pos. Player Min. Basics Good Bad
5 Jordan Henriquez
(6-11, 250 pounds, JR) 19.5 mpg 7.2 ppg, 5.3 rpg 2.4 bpg .526 FT
Comment: An emerging but still not polished offensive player, Henriquez's biggest contribution is on defense. He is an adept shot blocker who can cover some defensive mistakes on the perimeter or allow for the guards to be more aggressive.
Rotation
Pos. Player Min. Basics Good Bad
G Martavious Irving
(6-1, 210 pounds, JR) 19.2 mpg 5.7 ppg, 1.7 rpg .459 FG .365 3PT
Comment: A onetime starter at the point and then the Wildcats' sixth man, Irving's minutes have shrunk late in the season thanks largely to his struggles on defense, an area that used to be his strength.
F Shane Southwell
(6-6, 210 pounds, SO) 17.3 mpg 3.4 ppg, 2.2 rpg .750 FT .380 FG
Comment: Southwell has emerged as the first guard off the bench late in the season, filling a similar versatility role as Spradling, but isn't as good an offensive player.
F Thomas Gipson
(6-7, 275 pounds, FR) 17.3 mpg 7.1 ppg, 4.6 rpg .503 FG .535 FT
Comment: A starter at different points of the season, Gipson gives K-State some bulk to go with the length of Henriquez and is more polished offensively.

SEASON NOTES
High point Kansas State beat Missouri twice this season, but the second upset was sweeter because it came late in the year, was on the road and was one of the Wildcats' best offensive performances of the season.
Lowlight The Wildcats finished January with two losses, but losing to Oklahoma in Manhattan was their worst conference loss of the season and the second to the Sooners, the Big 12's eighth-place team.
Most Revealing Moment Having dropped two in a row to fall below .500 in the Big 12, Kansas State shook off a slow start to nip Baylor 57-56. That propelled the Wildcats to the upset at Missouri three days later, a two-game stretch that may have saved the season.
Did You Know? Kansas State is the only Big 12 team to win 10 or more games in three straight seasons -- other than perennial champion Kansas.

TOURNAMENT HISTORY
64-team era Overall
NCAA appearances: 9
Seed average: 7.1
Highest seed: 2
Lowest seed: 11
Biggest upset: 2008 vs. No. 6 Southern Cal
Most upsetting: 1993 vs. No 11 Tulane NCAA appearances: 25
All-time record: 32-29 (0.525)
Best finish: 1951, runner-up
Coach's NCAA record: Frank Martin (5-3, .625)

Southern Miss

TEAM DATA
Points per game: 74
Points allowed: 65.4
Scoring margin: +8.6 FG percentage: .453
FG allowed: .418
3PT percentage: .368
3PT allowed: .356
3PT-to-FG attempts: .257
FT percentage: .730
FT totals: 549/752
Rebound margin: +1.4
Turnover margin: -0.9
Assist-to-turnover ratio: 1:1
Assist-to-FG ratio: 0.46:1

SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI SCOUTING REPORT
Offensive Preference Not a great shooting team, so Larry Eustachy subs like crazy and demands that his guys attack the basket, draw fouls and outwork their opponents. Southern Miss features four double-figure scorers and brings two of them -- quicksilver point guard Neil Watson and sweet-shooting Kentucky transfer Darnell Dodson -- off the pine.
Defensive Philosophy Eustachy accepts more transfers than a busy transit system, so he recruits guys hungry for D-I success. He uses that hunger to fuel his aggressive man-to-man defense that disrupts opponents as they try to run their sets and causes turnovers aplenty.
Secret Strength Eustachy's squad aggressively attacks the basket, draws whistles, parades to the free throw line and shoots free throws better than any other C-USA squad (.740 FT% as a team).
Achilles' Heel The Golden Eagles shoot only .418 from the field as a team.
Will Lose When ... They are unable to force enough turnovers to fuel their transition game.
Famous Last Words Southern Miss' NCAA appearance will revive memories of Eustachy's ignominious exit from Iowa State -- when the Des Moines Register published photographs showing a clearly drunk Eustachy clutching beer cans as he posed with college students at a couple of on-campus parties -- but it should also remind people he's an excellent coach.

Player statistics are for the regular season only.
THE PLAYERS
Starters
Pos. Player Min. Basics Good Bad
1 Angelo Johnson
(6-0, 185 pounds, R-SR) 34.6 mpg 9.0 ppg, 3.1 apg 3.0 rpg .346 FG
Comment: Couldn't qualify academically to play for USC, considered Kentucky and Baylor before enrolling at Southern Miss. Plays with boundless energy and aggressively attacks the basket. Never seems to tire and sports a 1.7-to-1 assist-to-turnover ratio.
Pos. Player Min. Basics Good Bad
2 LaShay Page
(6-2, 190 pounds, JR) 36.8 mpg 11.8 ppg, 3.3 rpg .362 3PT .388 FG
Comment: Page is a reliable 3-point bomber from the same high school that produced current NBA star Raymond Felton. Can score from behind the arc or take the ball to bucket.
Pos. Player Min. Basics Good Bad
3 Rashard McGill
(6-5, 205 pounds, JR) 14.4 mpg 2.8 ppg, 2.7 rpg .714 FT .317 FG
Comment: A big-time glue guy who doesn't look for his offense. Instead, he sets screens and defers to other Golden Eagles while playing dogged defense.
Pos. Player Min. Basics Good Bad
4 Maurice Bolden
(6-10, 200 pounds, R-SR) 25.1 mpg 10.0 ppg, 5.4 rpg .393 3PT 1.4 tpg
Comment: Finesse big man is no surprise given his slender frame. Dangerous weapon in pick-and-pop situations because he has 2-guard-like range despite being 6-foot-10.
Pos. Player Min. Basics Good Bad
5 Jonathan Mills
(6-6, 230 pounds, SO) 23.1 mpg 9.8 ppg, 6.2 rpg .517 FG .660 FT
Comment: Chicago native is ferocious on the offensive glass (90 offensive rebounds in 31 regular season games). Scrappy lefty is a threat to reach double figures every night.
Rotation
Pos. Player Min. Basics Good Bad
G Neil Watson
(5-11, 170 pounds, SO) 30.1 mpg 12.1 ppg, 4.5 apg .396 3PT 2.1 tpg
Comment: Juco import chose Southern Miss over Creighton. Fearless penetrator and his forays to the hoop pay off, as he led Southern Miss in scoring and free throw attempts (167).
G/ Darnell Dodson
(6-7, 215 pounds, SR) 18.7 mpg 10.9 ppg, 4.7 rpg .792 FT 1.0 tpg
Comment: Kentucky transfer is a "stretch 4-man," a power forward who stretches opposing defenses with his net-snapping jumper. Dismissed from the team because he pleaded guilty to grand larceny charges. He was reinstated in December. Long-armed, fluid athlete.
F Torye Pelham
(6-6, 225 pounds, R-SR) 19.9 mpg 6.7 ppg, 5.0 rpg .645 FG 1.0 tpg
Comment: Absolute pogo sticks for legs. Often throws down YouTube-worthy dunks.

SEASON NOTES
High point Southern Miss recorded 11 straight wins from Dec. 4 through Jan. 7 -- including triumphs over Ole Miss and South Florida. That hot streak enabled the Golden Eagles to successfully build an NCAA tourney-worthy résumé.
Lowlight Thank goodness the Golden Eagles started off so well, because they limped home -- losing three of their last five regular-season games. Those losses caused Southern Miss fans to fret and bracketologists to question just how good the Golden Eagles are.
Most Revealing Moment The Golden Eagles rose to the level of the competition in 2011-12. As a result, Southern Miss notched nine wins against the RPI top 100.
Did You Know? This is Southern Miss' first NCAA tournament appearance since the 1991 squad featuring eventual pro Clarence Weatherspoon.

TOURNAMENT HISTORY
64-team era Overall
NCAA appearances: 2
Seed average: 12
Highest seed: 11
Lowest seed: 13
Biggest upset: None
Most upsetting: None
NCAA appearances: 2
All-time record: 0-2 (0.000)
Best finish: 1990, 1991, first round
Coach's NCAA record: Larry Eustachy (3-3, .500)

 

[Rudi]

NC State

TEAM DATA
Points per game: 73
Points allowed: 68
Scoring margin: +5 FG percentage: .463
FG allowed: .418
3PT percentage: .355
3PT allowed: .338
3PT-to-FG attempts: .261
FT percentage: .708
FT totals: 499/705
Rebound margin: +1.2
Turnover margin: +1.0
Assist-to-turnover ratio: 1.25:1
Assist-to-FG ratio: 0.6:1

NC STATE SCOUTING REPORT
Offensive Preference The Wolfpack are the epitome of balance, with all five starters averaging in double figures. Four are 15-feet-and-in scorers, with the lone exception being 6-foot-6 junior Scott Wood, who possesses anywhere-in-the-gym range. Quick-twitch sophomore forward C.J. Leslie is a matchup nightmare for most college big men.
Defensive Philosophy NC State's primary defense is man-to-man. When opponents have success off the dribble, Wolfpack coach Mark Gottfried will mix in some 2-3 zone. NC State is much better on the defensive backboards this season.
Secret Strength Led by budding star Lorenzo Brown (6.3 apg), the Wolfpack value each possession in an effort to get more shots over 40 minutes than the competition. The emphasis of heady decision-making has paid dividends, as NC State was second in the ACC in assist-to-turnover ratio (1.3-to-1).
Achilles' Heel Wood is NC State's only shoot-from-deep threat, so foes plan to stop him. When he's off, as he was in a four-game slump in losses to Duke, Florida State, UNC and Clemson, the Wolfpack look ordinary. When he's on, look out!
Will Lose When ... The Wolfpack's ordinary D is less than average, or when Wood clanks too many 3-balls.
Famous Last Words NC State won't be awed by the NCAA tournament stage. Gottfried can X-and-O with the best of them, Leslie is a future pro (maybe even a 2012 NBA draft early entrant), and this team has cut its teeth against Syracuse, Indiana, Vanderbilt, Texas and Stanford, in addition to its ACC slate.

Player statistics are for the regular season only.
THE PLAYERS
Starters
Pos. Player Min. Basics Good Bad
1 Lorenzo Brown
(6-5, 186 pounds, SO) 33.7 mpg 12.5 ppg, 6.3 apg 4.3 rpg .297 3PT
Comment: Recruited to play 2-guard, Brown has proved to be an under-control orchestrator of the offense. Height allows him to pass/shoot over most opposing point guards. Third-team All-ACC as a sophomore, and still has room to grow.
Pos. Player Min. Basics Good Bad
2 C.J. Williams
(6-5, 224 pounds, SR) 31.2 mpg 11.0 ppg, 3.9 rpg .813 FT 1.3 tpg
Comment: A fractured bone in his left thumb and sprained left shoulder haven't kept Williams from stepping up his game. Tripled his career average in minutes in 2011-12 and significantly upped his scoring average. Wolfpack's best wing defender.
Pos. Player Min. Basics Good Bad
3 Scott Wood
(6-6, 175 pounds, JR) 32.7 mpg 12.9 ppg, 2.3 rpg .422 3PT .434 FG
Comment: Indiana native is right out of Hoosiers hoops central casting -- a fundamentally sound gym rat who is the team's best 3-point marksman. When he's on, Wood is one of the top five long-distance dialers in the college game.
Pos. Player Min. Basics Good Bad
4 C.J. Leslie
(6-8, 209 pounds, SO) 28.7 mpg 14.2 ppg, 7.3 rpg 1.7 bpg 2.3 tpg
Comment: Has an NBA body and skills and now has a coach in Gottfried (who calls him by his given name, Calvin, and expects maximum effort all the time) to drive him to greatness. His perimeter shot still needs work, but Leslie is too fleet and springy for most opposing 4-men.
Pos. Player Min. Basics Good Bad
5 Richard Howell
(6-8, 250 pounds, JR) 26.8 mpg 10.8 ppg, 9.3 rpg .500 FG .638 FT
Comment: Went from doughy to more ripped in 2012. Transformed his play, as well, and is now a night-in, night-out double threat. Fouled out of five ACC regular-season games, so he needs to stay on the court.
Rotation
Pos. Player Min. Basics Good Bad
C DeShawn Painter
(6-9, 231 pounds, JR) 20.0 mpg 6.5 ppg, 4.4 rpg .731 FT .426 FG
Comment: Made strides forward in 2012 and no longer looks like the timid big man whose playing time dwindled to almost nothing last winter.
G Alex Johnson
(5-10, 176 pounds, GRAD) 19.7 mpg 4.7 ppg, 3.1 rpg .756 FT .346 FG
Comment: Cal State-Bakersfield grad transferred to NC State and took advantage of NCAA rule allowing grad students to play immediately. Moped briefly after going from 13.3-ppg scorer at Bakersfield to a backup Pack point guard, but now feels blessed to be in ACC and contributing to an NCAA tourney team.
F Tyler Harris
(6-8, 203 pounds, FR) 7.8 mpg 2.2 ppg, 1.3 rpg .700 FT .382 FG
Comment: Harris figures to be one of the ACC's breakout players in 2012-13. Has NBA genes (his brother Tobias, a former Tennessee Vol, is now a Milwaukee Buck) and guards a future pro in practice every day in Leslie.

SEASON NOTES
High point A 15-16 team in 2010-11, NC State won 20-plus games and earned a trip to the Big Dance under first-year head coach Gottfried.
Lowlight As if a four-game February losing streak to Duke, Florida State, North Carolina and Clemson wasn't bad enough, the Feb. 21 loss to North Carolina included the ejection of two former NC State greats, Tom Gugliotta and Chris Corchiani, by referee Karl Hess.
Most Revealing Moment The Wolfpack snapped out their February funk with a Leap Day win over "The U," then strung together a mini-winning streak to sew up a spot in the field of 68.
Did You Know? After VCU's Shaka Smart and Wichita State's Gregg Marshall said no, NC State AD Debbie Yow hired Gottfried, an old friend from their days together at Oral Roberts.

TOURNAMENT HISTORY
64-team era Overall
NCAA appearances: 11
Seed average: 6.6
Highest seed: 3
Lowest seed: 11
Biggest upset: 2005 vs. No. 2 Connecticut
Most upsetting: 1988 vs. No. 14 Murray St.
NCAA appearances: 22
All-time record: 32-21 (0.604)
Best finish: 1974, 1983, National Champions
Coach's NCAA record: Mark Gottfried (5-7, .417)

 

[Rudi]

Alabama

TEAM DATA
Points per game: 64
Points allowed: 58.1
Scoring margin: +5.9 FG percentage: .452
FG allowed: .388
3PT percentage: .285
3PT allowed: .283
3PT-to-FG attempts: .271
FT percentage: .715
FT totals: 437/611
Rebound margin: +1.2
Turnover margin: -1.0
Assist-to-turnover ratio: 0.95:1
Assist-to-FG ratio: 0.52:1

ALABAMA SCOUTING REPORT
Offensive Preference Alabama favors high-percentage shots, and it has a great post target in senior forward JaMychal Green. The Crimson Tide must shoot well enough from the perimeter to ensure teams don't collapse on Green.
Defensive Philosophy Alabama's calling card is its smothering defense. Coach Anthony Grant will utilize full-court pressure, depending on the opponent and the situation, and the Tide can also lock down opponents in the half court.
Secret Strength Andrew Steele thought his career was over after battling lingering effects from a concussion suffered in the 2011 SEC tournament. But after doctors corrected a vitamin D deficiency that had inhibited his recovery, he returned in early January and quickly made an impact with his experience and intelligence.
Achilles' Heel Alabama is among the worst 3-point shooting teams in the country. Through the regular season, the Tide shot just .285 from behind the arc.
Will Lose When ... They can't make enough 3-pointers to keep defenses from collapsing inside.
Famous Last Words NCAA tournament games often become half-court slugfests, and Alabama is uniquely qualified to engage and conquer given its reliance on relentless pressure defense.

Player statistics are for the regular season only.

THE PLAYERS
Starters
Pos. Player Min. Basics Good Bad
1 Trevor Releford
(6-1, 180 pounds, SO) 30.8 mpg 12.0 ppg, 2.8 apg 2.1 spg .265 3PT
Comment: Releford is a pure point guard who can get into the lane and create for others. He's also a ball-hawking defender who led the SEC in steals. Releford's weakness has been 3-point shooting.
Pos. Player Min. Basics Good Bad
2 Levi Randolph
(6-5, 185 pounds, FR) 27.1 mpg 6.4 ppg, 1.7 apg 4.0 rpg .596 FT
Comment: Randolph started all but one game as a freshman, and although he didn't shoot as well as he's capable of, he turned in some solid performances -- notably an 18-point, seven-rebound effort in a key late-season win over Mississippi State.
Pos. Player Min. Basics Good Bad
3 Andrew Steele
(6-4, 230 pounds, JR) 24.8 mpg 7.3 ppg, 2.8 apg .508 FG .250 3PT
Comment: Alabama fans may not have realized how important it was to regain the services of Steele until he began helping the Tide win. His experience was crucial for a team that relied heavily on a freshman- and sophomore-dominated guard rotation.
Pos. Player Min. Basics Good Bad
4 Nick Jacobs
(6-8, 250 pounds, FR) 18.8 mpg 6.1 ppg, 3.7 rpg 0.8 bpg .591 FT
Comment: Jacobs was a handy guy to have around after the suspensions of Green, who later returned, and Tony Mitchell, who didn't. Jacobs finished third on the team in field-goal percentage (.500) and blocked shots (25).
Pos. Player Min. Basics Good Bad
5 JaMychal Green
(6-8, 228 pounds, SR) 28.7 mpg 13.8 ppg, 7.3 rpg 1.4 bpg .200 3PT
Comment: Green has been suspended for various infractions the three seasons he's played for Grant, but when he's been on the court, he's been one of the toughest inside players in the SEC -- on both ends of the floor. He led Alabama in scoring, rebounding, blocked shots and field-goal percentage during the regular season.
Rotation
Pos. Player Min. Basics Good Bad
G Rodney Cooper
(6-6, 205 pounds, FR) 17.8 mpg 5.4 ppg, 2.5 rpg .828 FT .397 FG
Comment: Like all of Alabama's three freshman guards, Cooper struggled with his outside stroke at times, but late in the season he made major contributions, including a 28-point performance against LSU.
G Trevor Lacey
(6-3, 200 pounds, FR) 14.6 mpg 6.7 ppg, 3.0 rpg .804 FT .277 3PT
Comment: Lacy started 15 times in 30 regular-season games and finished second on the team in assists. He, too, struggled with his 3-point shot, but like fellow freshman guards Randolph and Cooper, he's capable of leading the Tide in scoring on any given night.
G Charles Hankerson Jr.
(6-5, 210 pounds, SO) 11.6 mpg 4.0 ppg, 1.6 rpg .340 3PT .376 FG
Comment: To his credit, Hankerson didn't sit back and surrender minutes to freshmen. He worked hard over the offseason to earn his spot in the rotation and was one of Alabama's better 3-point shooters.

SEASON NOTES
High point Alabama beat Maryland, Wichita State and Purdue in claiming the Puerto Rico Tip Off championship in mid-November.
Lowlight On Jan. 25, a 58-56 loss at South Carolina, which hadn't won a league game at the time, capped off a four-game losing streak.
Most Revealing Moment After that losing streak, Alabama beat Arkansas, Ole Miss (in double overtime), and Auburn (on the road) to get back on track.
Did You Know? Through regular-season games, Alabama led the SEC and was ninth in the nation in scoring defense, allowing its opponents just 57.9 points per game. The Tide are 13th nationally in field-goal percentage defense (.387).

TOURNAMENT HISTORY
64-team era Overall
NCAA appearances: 14
Seed average: 6.1
Highest seed: 2
Lowest seed: 10
Biggest upset: 2004 vs. No. 1 Stanford
Most upsetting: 2002 vs. No. 10 Kent St.
NCAA appearances: 19
All-time record: 20-19 (.513)
Best finish: 2004, Final Four
Coach's NCAA record: Anthony Grant (1-2, .333)

Creighton

TEAM DATA
Points per game: 80
Points allowed: 69.5
Scoring margin: +10.5 FG percentage: .509
FG allowed: .438
3PT percentage: .425
3PT allowed: .356
3PT-to-FG attempts: .350
FT percentage: .732
FT totals: 521/712
Rebound margin: +1.3
Turnover margin: +1.2
Assist-to-turnover ratio: 1.46:1
Assist-to-FG ratio: 0.64:1

CREIGHTON SCOUTING REPORT
Offensive Preference With 340-plus Division I programs, there aren't enough big men to go around, so more and more teams, like Creighton, are employing 4-out, 1-in sets. In these sets, the power forward -- often called a "Stretch 4" -- is extremely comfortable playing away from the basket -- so he plays out near the 3-point arc, a move designed to spread the defense. Few programs are as efficient in the 4-out, 1-in sets as Creighton, which has scoring ace Doug McDermott at the power forward, a low-post horse inside in Venezuela native Gregory Echenique and a cadre of 3-point marksmen ready and willing to fire on the perimeter.
Defensive Philosophy The Bluejays play primarily man-to-man. But they are an average defensive team at best, so opponents boasting superior speed and athleticism give them trouble.
Secret Strength Creighton's incredible efficiency on offense. Creighton shoots a national-best 51 percent from the field. The Bluejays' 79.9 points per game ranks sixth in the nation and their average of 18 assists is third nationally.
Achilles' Heel Creighton is not extremely quick and athletic, so its defense is a concern against faster teams adept at beating a defender off the dribble and attacking the basket.
Will Lose When … They're unable to get enough stops to allow McDermott's Superman act to work.
Famous Last Words Creighton, a middle seed, won't be an easy out in the Big Dance. They're uber-efficient on offense and feature the player most likely in the country to pull a Jimmer or a Pittsnogle this March in McDermott. A second-round Big Dance win seems likely, but the Bluejays figure to be sent packing in the third round -- unless McDermott goes completely off -- something he's quite capable of.

Player statistics are for the regular season only.
THE PLAYERS
Starters
Pos. Player Min. Basics Good Bad
1 Antoine Young
(6-0, 175 lb., SR) 30.6 mpg 12.5 ppg, 4.5 apg 2.1 rpg .323 3PT
Comment: Scoring point guard is critical to Creighton's ultra-efficient offense. One of only two Creighton players in program history with more than 1,000 career points and 425 career assists.
Pos. Player Min. Basics Good Bad
2 Jahenns Manigat
(6-1, 175 lb., SO) 22.8 mpg 6.6 ppg, 2.2 rpg .470 3PT 0 blocks
Comment: Comes from the heart of NHL country (Ottawa, Ontario) but possesses NBA range on his jumper (.470 3PT).
Pos. Player Min. Basics Good Bad
3 Grant Gibbs
(6-4, 210 lb., JR) 29.5 mpg 7.1 ppg, 5.1 apg 4.3 rpg 2.2 tpg
Comment: Gonzaga transfer willingly shares the ball and leads the team in steals.
Pos. Player Min. Basics Good Bad
4 Doug McDermott
(6-7, 220 lb., SO) 31.7 mpg 23.2 ppg, 8.2 rpg .610 FG 2 blocks
Comment: Son of Creighton head coach Greg McDermott. Ranks third in the nation with 23.2 ppg. Versatile All-America forward is capable of carrying the Bluejays on his back. Can score from anywhere and also averages a team-high 8.2 rebounds.
Pos. Player Min. Basics Good Bad
5 Gregory Echenique
(6-9, 270 lb., JR) 23.7 mpg 9.8 ppg, 7.4 rpg .614 FG 1.6 tpg
Comment: Rutgers transfer is Creighton's first Missouri Valley Conference Defensive Player of the Year. Unsung hero is among league leaders in blocks (54), rebounding (7.4 rpg) and shooting percentage (.614 FG) in 2011-12. Wears pink sneakers on game day because he played well wearing them on a breast cancer awareness night and decided not to mess with success the rest of the season.
Rotation
Pos. Player Min. Basics Good Bad
F Ethan Wragge
(6-7, 225 lb., SO) 16.1 mpg 6.4 ppg, 2.8 rpg .408 3PT 0.4 apg
Comment: Voted to Missouri Valley Conference's 2012 All-Bench team. Deadly from behind the arc thanks to textbook release on his shot.
G Josh Jones
(6-2, 195 lb., JR) 16.9 mpg 5.0 ppg, 1.8 apg .411 3PT .556 FT
Comment: Most athletic player on Creighton's roster.
F Avery Dingman
(6-6, 205 lb., FR) 7.4 mpg 3.0 ppg, 0.7 rpg .433 3PT .643 FT
Comment: Yet another precision bomber off the pine for the Bluejays.

SEASON NOTES
High point Everybody's All-American, forward McDermott scored 33 points and Young scored eight of his 14 in overtime as Creighton outlasted Illinois State 83-79 in the Missouri Valley Conference's cut-down-the-nets game on March 4 -- earning the conference's automatic tourney berth.
Lowlight After starting the season with a 21-2 mark, the Bluejays suffered three straight league losses to Northern Iowa, Evansville and Wichita State in mid-February -- causing the Twitterverse to question Creighton's D and its viability as a possible March Cinderella.
Most Revealing Moment Bluejays point guard Young provided 16 points and helped snap Creighton out of its early-February funk by swishing a game-winning fallaway shot in an 81-79 résumé-boosting Bracketbusters win over Long Beach State on Feb. 18.
Did You Know? NBA Hall of Famers Oscar Robertson (984 points) and Larry Bird (918) are the only two MVC players to score more points as a sophomore than McDermott (765 points and counting in 2011-12). Being in impressive company is nothing new for McDermott, who teamed with North Carolina's Harrison Barnes at Ames High School, one of the greatest high school teams in Iowa prep history. Ames went 53-0 and won two state titles in McDermott's and Barnes' junior and senior seasons.

TOURNAMENT HISTORY
64-team era Overall
NCAA appearances: 9
Seed average: 10.3
Highest seed: 6
Lowest seed: 14
Biggest upset: 2002 vs. No. 5 Florida
Most upsetting: 2003 vs. No. 11 Central Michigan NCAA appearances: 16
All-time record: 9-17 (.346)
Best finish: 1962, 1964, 1974, 1991, 1999, 2002, Second Round
Coach's NCAA record: Greg McDermott (0-3, .000)

 

[Chrispy]

Now i want to you link each team to each post in your first post




:troll:

 

[Rudi]

Giant Killers: East Region

s we promised in the Giant Killers blog, on Monday we begin detailed breakdowns of all the first-round games with GK implications.

Now that we all have brackets in hand, it's time for a detailed look at how our Giant Killers statistical model sees NCAA tournament matchups. We'll go region by region, and, as we did in 2011, we will sort potential upsets into four categories: Best Bets, Worth a Long Look, Not Completely Crazy and Stay Away. These names should be pretty self-explanatory: Best Bets have a decent chance to win outright, and Stay Aways are likely to lose no matter what. But we can't tell you exactly how to fill out your brackets, because that depends on how heavily your particular pool rewards upsets. The more points you score when underdogs win, the more you should be willing to pick high-risk teams.

In case you've forgotten, a Giant Killer is a team that beats an opponent seeded at least five spots better and doesn't come from a BCS conference. Other teams -- Gonzaga, Butler, BYU, Temple and Xavier -- are excluded because of their historical success. (Check out our methodology for a full explanation.) Our model generates statistical ratings that compare potential Giant Killers to past Davids, as well as all Giants to the Goliaths that were slain. Those ratings enable us to predict the chances of an upset in each matchup.

We continue with the East Region, where a traditional Giant Killers victim may have lucked out with its draw.

Upset Picks in the South | East | West | Midwest

EAST REGION

WORTH A LONG LOOK

No. 14 St. Bonaventure (17.3 Giant Killer score, on a 100-point scale) vs. No. 3 Florida State (43.4 Vulnerability score)
Upset chance: 22.1 percent

Because the Seminoles look good and are coming off a string of impressive victories, they are creeping far along an awful lot of brackets. But Florida State's run through the ACC tournament didn't repair its signature weakness: The Seminoles throw the ball away on 23.7 percent of possessions, ranking 324th in the country. Style of play can explain why some teams look good or bad in particular categories, but 324th? That's between UC Davis (5-26) and Loyola-Chicago (7-23). Any system that recognizes the importance of turnovers is going to have doubts about the Seminoles: BPI ranks them at 26, making Florida State the single most overseeded team in the tournament. And our model finds that avoiding turnovers is especially critical for Giants looking to ward off Killers. Which makes Florida State a ticking time bomb.

As to whether the Bonnies can set it off, well … half a dozen teams in the Atlantic 10 were better at forcing turnovers, and five would have made better Killers overall. If you saw St. Bonaventure turn back every Xavier rally in the A-10 tournament final, you already know how much it relies on Andrew Nicholson; otherwise, prepare to get acquainted with this absolute beast, a 250-pound forward responsible for much of the Bonnies' impressive rebounding and 2-point shooting stats. If Florida State goes into mistake mode and Nicholson gets a lot of second chances, this game could get interesting. Both need to happen, but both are quite possible.

No. 12 Harvard (11.0) vs. No. 5 Vanderbilt (47.7)
Upset chance: 19.7 percent

It's a shame Harvard's Giant Killer status isn't as strong as the team's overall ability, because once again, Vanderbilt is extremely vulnerable according to our model. This does not mean Vanderbilt isn't a good team. This does not mean Vanderbilt can't make a deep tournament run. It's just that the Commodores' statistical profile -- and we've seen this for several years now -- is the type that typically signals problems against Giant Killers.

There are three main areas of concern for Vandy. First, the team turns it over on 20 percent of possessions, 10.7 of which result in steals -- a horrible stat for a power team, and a great opportunity for an underdog to get out and run. Compounding that problem, the Dores don't force enough turnovers at the other end. Secondly, they have similar issues on the boards, particularly the defensive glass, where they are slightly below average. And last, they don't generate nearly enough of their offense from 2-point range (a hallmark of a safe Giant), scoring just 44 percent of their points from that distance (329th in the country, per KenPom.com).

But can Harvard take advantage? The Crimson don't generate turnovers either and aren't built to run even if they force those mistakes. Nor do they grab offensive boards, although they are great on the defensive glass. However, they do an outstanding job of defending the arc, allowing just 24.8 percent of opposing points to come from 3-pointers, which means they could take away one of Vandy's greatest strengths. Harvard will probably have to increase its own frequency in terms of 3-point shooting and hope its defensive rebounding from the likes of Keith Wright and Kyle Casey can carry over on the offensive side for a game, but stranger things have happened, especially against teams with such a high vulnerability rating.

STAY AWAY

No. 15 Loyola-Maryland (15.6) vs. No. 2 Ohio State (15.7)
Upset chance: 9.5 percent

The Greyhounds just played the game of their lives, strangling Fairfield 48-44 in the MAAC final, and thereby depriving the NCAA field of a team named the Stags. Thing is, Loyola is usually careless with the ball (turnovers on 20.8 percent of possessions, ranking 208th in the NCAA) and ineffective at defending the perimeter (allowing opponents to shoot 36 percent on 3s, ranking 252nd), relying instead on a strong inside game to compensate for their mediocre shooting. That leaves them hugely reliant on free throws (24.5 percent of points, ninth-most in the country), which is generally bad news for Killers, and offensive rebounding, which is worse news in this specific case, because Ohio State limits opponents to ORebs on just 24.8 percent of missed shots, the second-lowest rate in the country. The Buckeyes' few weaknesses have really cost them only in games against other Giants, as when they went a combined 6-for-32 (18.8 percent) on 3-point attempts in their two losses to Michigan State.

No. 16 UNC Asheville (12.2) vs. No. 1 Syracuse (6.8)
Upset chance: 5.2 percent

This game is worth watching just to see UNC Asheville field the smallest team. Not in the tournament, mind you, in the country: The Bulldogs rank dead last in the NCAA with an Effective Height of minus-5.1 inches. They shoot well, but they're even more reliant than Loyola on free throws (26.2 percent of points). And they're allowing opponents to shoot 50.4 percent inside (ranking 271st) and 35.4 percent from behind the arc (ranking 216th).

The Orange, meanwhile, demonstrate why some stats matter more than others when it comes to Giant Killing. For all the talk you'll hear about the importance of free throws at this time of year, Syracuse scores 116.1 points per 100 possessions without relying on foul shots because they hardly ever turn the ball over and they hit the glass. In other words, they don't need other teams to make mistakes to put points on the board. And on defense, they rank 341st in the country in one category our model finds surprisingly unimportant -- defensive rebounding -- as the 2-3 zone makes it hard to find a man to box out. But here's how the zone pays off: The Orange rank third in the country in steals, sixth in generating turnovers and second in blocking shots. Along with North Carolina and Kentucky, they're one of the least vulnerable Giants in the field.

No. 13 Montana (2.0) vs. No. 4 Wisconsin (21.8)
Upset chance: 4.3 percent

There's just enough here not to completely dismiss a slaying, and Wisconsin may be slightly overrated by tempo-free stats. But don't stake your bracket on this upset. The Badgers give the ball up just 15.1 percent of the time, which is second in the country, so you can forget about rattling them with pressure. They also own the offensive glass and absolutely smother opponents beyond the arc (giving up only 19.9 percent of their points from that distance, one of the best marks in the nation). If there's a weakness, Wisconsin doesn't score enough from 2-point range, which makes its offense less consistent than you'd like from a top-tier Giant. And the Badgers' weak nonconference performance isn't the greatest harbinger of success in these types of games.

But Montana isn't an ideal GK. Although the Grizzlies have won 14 straight games, their methods don't match those of effective Giant Killers. They're lousy on the offensive glass, below average in generating points from 3-point range (which is strange, because they hit 38.3 percent of their treys, so let it fly!) and haven't proved themselves against difficult competition. To their credit, they do a nice job of both preventing and forcing turnovers, although good luck trying to get Wisconsin to cough it up. And the Grizzlies defend the arc exceptionally well, allowing just 24.3 percent of opponents' points from downtown. But even though Will Cherry is a master thief (4.6 steal percentage, 15th in the nation) and Kareem Jamar could go off from 3 (44.5 percent), it's hard to find enough weapons to justify picking Montana.

 

[Rudi]

Giant Killers: South Region

BEST BET

No. 12 VCU (37.9 Giant Killer score, on a 100-point scale) vs. No. 5 Wichita State (29.4 vulnerability score)
Upset chance: 26.9 percent

The single worst result of the NCAA tournament selection committee's refusal to use advanced metrics is its underseeding (not to mention exclusion) of highly effective mid-major teams. And here, two of the best in the country will have to play each other immediately, just because neither happens to come from a power conference.

It's bad enough that VCU is a 12-seed, while, say, Colorado is an 11. You've read our analysis of the Rams here and here and here and here. If our model were the marrying kind, it would buy Shaka Smart an engagement ring. His squad doesn't shoot as well as last year's Final Four team, but the Rams generate turnovers relentlessly, protect the ball and defend the perimeter.

Unfortunately for VCU, the Shockers are also miscast: Wichita State is one of the 10 best teams in the country (BPI: No. 9), masquerading as a 5-seed. The Shockers can work the ball inside, usually to 7-foot, 256-pound center Garrett Stutz; as a team, they're shooting 53.5 percent on 2-point attempts, 14th best in the nation. The four guards they usually start alongside Stutz can bomb away from outside -- Joe Ragland has hit 50 percent of his 3-point attempts, and ranks third in the country with a 67.9 percent effective field goal percentage. The Shockers turn the ball over on just 18 percent of possessions. They hit the glass. And they're nearly as efficient on defense (giving up 90.4 points per 100 opponent possessions, ranking 18th) as offense (116.8 points per 100 possessions, ranking 10th). They've lost one game, by one point, in the past six weeks.

Our model accounts for conference strength, so Wichita State takes a hit in our ratings compared to teams out of the Big Ten or Big 12. Even so, it's nowhere near the vulnerability score of other mid-major teams playing the role of Giants, such as New Mexico (56.9) or Murray State (46.9). That's because the Shockers' fundamental stats are so strong. They are, in fact, one of the few teams that could make a complete mess of this tournament's chalk; Ken Pomeroy has them rated as the second-likeliest team to win the South.

VCU is adaptable and, uh, smart. But Gregg Marshall can play some chess, too -- watch Wichita State, and you'll see it shift defensive strategies. By numbers and personnel, this should be one of the most interesting matchups in the entire tournament. Thanks for making it happen on the opening Thursday, NCAA!

WORTH A LONG LOOK

No. 14 South Dakota State (9.7) vs. No. 3 Baylor (48.3)
Upset chance: 19 percent

Much as with Vanderbilt and Harvard, if you pick this game, you'll be doing so largely based on Baylor's vulnerability. Which is a fine tactic against a team that hardly ever makes sense to anyone.

Giant Killers thrive, as we've mentioned time and again, by creating extra possessions and maximizing the ones they have, and the Bears help with that cause. Baylor turns it over way too often (20.6 percent of possessions), does a lousy job on the defensive glass despite its size and athleticism (opponents grab offensive rebounds 32.8 percent of the time, leaving the Bears just 208th in the country) and allows too many 3-pointers (28.8 percent of opponents' scoring, 120th in the nation). Baylor offsets some of those weaknesses by dominating the offensive glass and forcing turnovers, but its inefficiency inside the arc is a problem, too.

Is South Dakota State the team to expose these flaws? Not in an ideal world, but the Jackrabbits at least have some GK qualities in their favor. Their biggest edge? They protect the ball as if it were a state secret (15.7 turnover percentage; fourth in the country). And they generate 32 percent of their points from 3-point range, the kind of high-risk shooting we like to see. If point guard Nate Wolters can find big man Jordan Dykstra for a couple of early bombs (he hits 48.6 percent of his treys), Baylor's bigs will have to come out and guard, which should create openings for Wolters to score inside the lane. And if that happens, look out.

NOT COMPLETELY CRAZY

No. 13 New Mexico State (12.7) vs. No 4 Indiana (39.0) Upset chance: 17.2 percent

The Hoosiers, who score a whopping 120.2 points per 100 possessions (fourth highest in the country) are a fun team to watch. They've got an immense frontcourt, including 6-11 freshman Cody Zeller, who is shooting 62.6 percent, and half a dozen guys who bomb away with precision -- as a team, they're shooting 43.3 percent on 3s, second highest in the NCAA. But our model notices several similarities between Indiana and past Giants who have fallen early. The Hoosiers are heavily reliant on foul shooting (free throws account for 24.5 percent of their points, ranking 12th). They are vulnerable to the 3-point shot, allowing opponents to shoot 34.9 percent from downtown (ranking 194th). And they surrender a lot of steals (10.1 percent of possessions, ranking 218th). In the Big Ten semifinals, Indiana outshot Wisconsin and got to the line more often, but gave up more steals and more blocks, let the Badgers hit a tournament-record-tying 13 3-pointers and lost 78-71. So you can see where a Killer with a swarming, thieving defense and outside shooters could cause the Hoosiers real trouble, especially now that they're missing Verdell Jones III.

Sadly, New Mexico State isn't that type of team. (Too bad VCU wasn't seeded one slot lower.) The Aggies put a lot of points on the board, but that's partly because they play at a rapid pace (70.9 possessions per game, 19th fastest in the country). They work the ball inside, where they're legitimately outstanding on the offensive boards (offensive rebounds on 40.8 percent of missed shots, fourth in the NCAA), and they specialize in getting to the free throw line -- if you sneeze near Hamidu Rahman, somebody will call a foul. But Killers have better odds of slaying Giants when they can score in bunches, and New Mexico State is shooting just 32.8 percent (239th in the NCAA) on 3s. This is a matchup between two very physical teams -- and one is from the Big Ten, while the other is from the WAC.

STAY AWAY

No. 16 Mississippi Valley State (14.3) or Western Kentucky (less than 2) vs. No. 1 Kentucky (4.6) Upset chance: 5.1 percent vs. MVSU; Less than 2 percent vs. WKU

Mississippi Valley State has a surprisingly high GK rating for a team in this position, and it's based almost entirely on forcing a ton of turnovers (23.3 percent of possessions) and nailing 3-pointers (32.7 percent of the team's points). But a 16-seed has never defeated a 1-seed, and Kentucky is Kentucky -- extremely safe and outstanding in virtually every key area except forcing turnovers and 3-point defense. So just keep walking past this one, especially if the Wildcats draw Western Kentucky, which has exactly nothing going for it as a Giant Killer. If only Orlando Mendez-Valdez still had eligibility. Sigh.

No. 15 Lehigh (less than 2) vs. No. 2 Duke (11.8) Upset chance: 2.9 percent

We were all set to write about how Duke was more vulnerable than we've seen in ages (its rating is usually close to zero). Then the Blue Devils drew Lehigh. And while we love C.J. McCollum and his knack for both scoring and swiping the ball, Lehigh just doesn't fit the GK profile. The Mountain Hawks don't do anything particularly well to produce extra possessions, with the exception of a solid 11.3 steal percentage on defense. Most concerning is that they score only 27.4 percent of their points from deep against a team that prioritizes defending the 3-ball and grab offensive rebounds only 31.2 percent of the time -- a weak spot other teams could exploit against Duke.

Meanwhile, the Blue Devils struggle with both 2-point offense and defense and generate too much of their offense (23.1 percent) from the free throw line. But they protect the ball on offense, are an above-average offensive rebounding team and absolutely lock down the arc on D (just 19.5 percent of opponents' points). A ridiculously powerful strength of schedule adds to their résumé. Oh, then there's this little fact: In Coach K's tenure at Duke, the team has lost just one game to a Giant Killer (VCU in a 6-11 game in 2007). That's it. In fact, the Blue Devils have lost only one other time to a double-digit seed, but that was a power-conference team (Boston College) all the way back in 1985. Considering the likes of Georgetown, Kansas and Vandy have lost to GKs in back-to-back seasons, that's all the more remarkable. And it doesn't bode well for Lehigh.