18th sounds about right for pre-season. I wouldn't be surprised if we took the 6th seed or if we missed the play-offs completely. It's going to depend on the first half of the season; if we go about 5-3 or 6-2, then we're going to be in the hunt.
Vince needs to continue to progress and the secondary needs to improve. I think if the defensive line stays healthy (especially Jason Jones), then the pass rush will be pretty good, which will make the secondary better, especially since Nick Harper is gone. Linebacker corps worries me a little bit too; Stephen Tulloch is ready for a big, break-out year, but without Bulluck now, guys like Will Witherspoon, Gerald McRath, David Thornton and Rennie Curran will have to step up.
Best case scenario at this point, 11-5, while worst case would be 6-10. I think we'll probably finish 9-7, just out of the playoffs, but good enough for second in the division.