How Many Games Would This Team Win?

[Warner2BruceTD]

C K.Suzuki
1B B.Butler
2B M.Ellis
3B T.Wiggington
SS JJ Hardy
RF C.Hart
CF C.Patterson
LF J.Gomes

C E.Whiteside
IF J.Herrera
OF C.Dickerson
UTIL M.Cairo
UTIL J.Hairston

P R.Dempster
P T.Lilly
P B.Arroyo
P C.Capuano
P D.Fister

P A.Chapman
P M.Adams
P J.Venters
P C.Kimbrel
P H.Bell
P M.Rivers
P J.Walden

 

[Sharkweather]

70-92

 

[Warner2BruceTD]

Oh, and construct the optimum lineup. Build the rotation and establish bullpen roles for extra credit.

 

[Warner2BruceTD]

Oh, and Mickey Rivers did not unretire and convert to a pitcher. Thats obviously Mariano Rivera.

 

[Obst]

I would say 75 wins.

 

[Warner2BruceTD]

I would suspect the answer would be "how many leads can they take into the sixth"? Because they would likely win upwards of 80% of them.

 

[Sharkweather]

76-86, 5th NL Central

Lineup
RF Corey Hart
C Kurt Suzuki
1B Billy Butler
LF Jonny Gomes
3B Ty Wigginton
SS J.J. Hardy
2B Mark Ellis
CF Chris Dickerson
P

Rotation
Ryan Dempster
Bronson Arroyo
Ted Lilly
Doug Fister
Chris Capuano

Long Relief
Aroldis Chapman

Middle Relief
Jonny Venters
Craig Kimbrel
Jordan Walden

Setup
Heath Bell
Mike Adams

Closer
Mariano Rivera

 

[Warner2BruceTD]

Aroldis Chapman, mop up guy.

That's quite the bullpen.

 

[Warner2BruceTD]

And I love the fact you benched Patterson. I was hoping someone would be sly enough to do that.

 

[Senser81]

81-81

 

[Rudi]

Maybe 60 wins. Id put Chapman in the rotation as the ace.

 

[Warner2BruceTD]

Maybe 60 wins. Id put Chapman in the rotation as the ace.

Bingo.

I was waiting for someone to say the second part.

This team is lacking an ace, and has no long reliever. Chapman into the rotation, and one of those mediocre guys to the bullpen, and a major hole is filled.

I think that move, right there, could (optomistically) result in about 8-10 additional wins.

 

[Goober]

Is this team in the AL? I would move Hart to 1B, and make Butler the DH. Starting outfield would be Gomes/Dickerson/Hairston.

Chapman to the rotation is good, I'd send Arroyo to the pen for long relief. The rest of the bullpen has no set role. I would base everything by matchups.

 

[Rudi]

Is this team in the AL? I would move Hart to 1B, and make Butler the DH. Starting outfield would be Gomes/Dickerson/Hairston.

Chapman to the rotation is good, I'd send Arroyo to the pen for long relief. The rest of the bullpen has no set role. I would base everything by matchups.

Gomes would have to be the DH if this is an AL team.

 

[Goober]

Also, Patterson has been pretty unlucky this year. His line drive rate is really high but it isn't showing in his BABIP, he's just hitting those liners right at people. He still sucks though, just not as bad as his slash line suggests.

 

[Warner2BruceTD]

Is this team in the AL? I would move Hart to 1B, and make Butler the DH. Starting outfield would be Gomes/Dickerson/Hairston.

Chapman to the rotation is good, I'd send Arroyo to the pen for long relief. The rest of the bullpen has no set role. I would base everything by matchups.

I should have specified. Its an NL team, otherwise I would have constructed the bench a bit differently.

To me, the batting order is the challenge. Patterson is the bait, I want someone to lead him off so I can make fun of them. Is Dusty Baker registered here?

 

[Warner2BruceTD]

Also, Patterson has been pretty unlucky this year. His line drive rate is really high but it isn't showing in his BABIP, he's just hitting those liners right at people. He still sucks though, just not as bad as his slash line suggests.

Corey Patterson has an entire career's worth of stats that suggest he is hardly unlucky. Fuck your BABIP!

 

[Goober]

My NL lineup would be:
Corey Hart
JJ Hardy
Billy Butler
Ty Wigginton
Chris Dickerson
Kurt Suzuki
Jonny Gomes
Mark Ellis
Pitcher

 

[Goober]

A team containing only replacement level players would hypothetically win ~45 games, so as a fun exercise, lets estimate the teams win total using only the players fWAR from the 2010 season.

C K.Suzuki=1.8
1B B.Butler=2.8
2B M.Ellis=3.4
3B T.Wiggington=0.1
SS JJ Hardy=2.5
RF C.Hart=3.7
CF C.Patterson=1.0
LF J.Gomes=-0.1
Total=15.2

C E.Whiteside=0.7
IF J.Herrera=0.6
OF C.Dickerson=-0.1
UTIL M.Cairo=0.9
UTIL J.Hairston=1.8
Total=3.9

P R.Dempster=3.5
P T.Lilly=2.3
P B.Arroyo=1.7
P C.Capuano=0.5
P D.Fister=2.9
Total=10.9

P A.Chapman=0.7
P M.Adams=1.7
P J.Venters=1.7
P C.Kimbrel=0.5
P H.Bell=2.5
P M.Rivera=1.7
P J.Walden=0.4
Total=9.2

Total=39.2+45=84.2 Wins.

This estimate is artificially low, because a lot of these players didn't spend a full season in the major leagues (Hardy, Capuano, Kimbrel, etc.). So their value is lower then it would be over an entire season. However a replacement player due to injury (as in Hardy's case) would like have negative, or close to zero value. Still I think it's safe to add another 3-6 wins to the estimate making this an 85-90 win team.

Enjoy Warner!

Edit: A team such as this one, with a great bullpen is likely to get lucky and win a lot of close games (see 2010 Padres) and win more games then expected.

 

[MvP]

Take what the Cincinnati Reds' final regular season W-L record will be and switch the numbers.