If the NFL draft is so unpredictable...

[Bear Pand]

If the NFL draft is so unpredictable then why does it always seem like there's a clear consensus on who the #1 pick is? This doesn't really make any sense to me. All you have to do is look at past drafts and past #1 picks and it's pretty obvious that the draft is an inexact science. Yet it seems like every year there's some guy who's unanimously declared the #1 surefire can't miss pick.

A lot of this media driven too and then it puts teams in awkward positions where there's pressure on them to draft certain players. The most obvious recent example of this being when the Texans passed on Reggie Bush and then the media rode on him. Lol at this ESPN article:

Even now the decision boggles the mind. Houston could have chosen USC tailback Reggie Bush, but instead got sloppy drunk on "measureables" and potential rather than actual production. Hel-lo, did you see how many contrails and broken ankles Bush left behind this season?

But from a pure football standpoint, Bush was the best college player on the draft board. Forget the board; he was the best college player on the face of the Earth.

It isn't just me, or Mel Kiper Jr., or the We-Find-Evil-In-Every-Living-Thing Jets fans who think so. According to a poll conducted by respected NFL writer Rick Gosselin of the Dallas Morning News, 21 of 26 league general managers rated Bush as the top choice. That's called a landslide.

http://sports.espn.go.com/espn/columns/story?columnist=wojciechowski_gene&id=2427182

No doubt this exact thing would happen if someone passed on Luck this year. Except it'd likely be even worse.

Maybe this doesn't happen much and I'm just noticing it this year cause of media going overboard with Luck and my team being the likely destination. But I've noticed it in the NBA as well. I guess what I'm getting at is how much of Luck being the absolute #1 pick is just truth vs some media fueled narrative? I haven't heard anyone else even considered to be a candidate for the #1 pick which seems ridiculous considering how inaccurate people are at projecting how players will turn out. There really should never be a situation where practically everyone is in agreement on who deserves to go #1. I mean how accurately can we say that Luck is far and away better than any prospect in the draft? I've heard so much ridiculous hyperbole about how great dudes going to be I don't even know anymore...

I'm not saying I don't want Luck or that he'll be a bust. I don't even watch that many Stanford games to be honest. But I don't want Indy to get stuck in a position where they feel compelled to draft a player. Of course no one can force them to do anything, but the pressure is still going to be there.

 

[OnlyOneBeerLeft]

Last year, Luck was #1... but Cam was a 3rd... then a 2nd... then people said bills were going to take him at #3 I think... and then he was #1... Luck didn't seem to progress this past season just stayed the same IMO if not having a small dropoff. I don't think he's consensus, and PFT announced that a few teams believe RGIII is the better prospect. I personally think there's a chance that RGIII does get picked before Luck, and I don't think Luck is #1 I like Barkley better or at least the same. It's a crapshoot, Panthers were criticized for the Cam pick by a lot of people, it's working out ok as of now tho. You never know, these top 15 or so picks are all potential guys for the most part every year. It depends on the effort they are willing to put forth to showing that they were willing to work hard enough to become the player that the team believed they could be when they drafted them. A lot of good QB's in this draft

 

[ThomasTomasz]

The draft you referenced I still find hilarious. Everyone criticized the Texans for not taking Bush or Vince Young. Yet Mario Williams has had a much better career than both players combined.

I am sure that a team that doesn't take Luck #1 will get panned in the media. As a Redskins fan, we need a quarterback but I would definitely be happy getting RGIII or Barkley. I am also a guy that understands the BPA strategy, but there are times when you have to use that strategy on a certain side of the ball as well. But who would that defensive player be? Like the OP, I haven't heard of any defensive player mentioned as being a potential #1 pick.

Also, the thing that goes with Luck is that many feel he can start right away. Though this season has proved that a rookie quarterback can come in and perform well, so if all of this is because Luck had a great college system to prepare him, it is the wrong way of thinking.

 

[OnlyOneBeerLeft]

LOL @ DoubleDeuce... I didn't mention an Alabama player so I get a groan from him, god forbid I say that the Panthers pick is working out SO FAR.

 

[Houston]

Who said it was unpredictable?

 

[Bear Pand]

Who said it was unpredictable?

What you want to argue that it's predictable?

 

[nflman2033]

The draft you referenced I still find hilarious. Everyone criticized the Texans for not taking Bush or Vince Young. Yet Mario Williams has had a much better career than both players combined.

I am sure that a team that doesn't take Luck #1 will get panned in the media. As a Redskins fan, we need a quarterback but I would definitely be happy getting RGIII or Barkley. I am also a guy that understands the BPA strategy, but there are times when you have to use that strategy on a certain side of the ball as well. But who would that defensive player be? Like the OP, I haven't heard of any defensive player mentioned as being a potential #1 pick.

Also, the thing that goes with Luck is that many feel he can start right away. Though this season has proved that a rookie quarterback can come in and perform well, so if all of this is because Luck had a great college system to prepare him, it is the wrong way of thinking.

thank you, I thought it was a good pick to not go with Bush then, and I was pretty sure it was proven fact to be a good pick now..

 

[s@ppisgod]

The criticism is also very media-based. I was a hardcore draftnik that year, and Mario was getting TONS of hype. He had a huge year, and declared as a junior. And yeah, he had freakish measureables. But a number of reputable experts (not Kiper and McShay) were comparing Williams to Reggie White. A big, strong DE with pretty ridiculous quickness for his size. And people wanted to act like he wasn't anywhere near the prospect Reggie was just because Reggie went all Madden on a Fresno St defense that was AWFUL. The Pac 10 defenses were pretty bad as a whole at that point in time. Thats when Cal was real good, but didn't play a whole lot of defense. Just in general, people who weren't into the draft and the media acted like there was no other choice and Mario was some 2nd tier prospect. Even MM knew Mario was a pretty rare prospect.

On Luck, he's still a very clean prospect. His mechanics, production, experience, intangibles. I'd take him 1st. What I don't get is the idea that Indy should take him 1st. If I were Indy and picking 1st, I'd trade down. They just never gave a shit about having more than a warm body at back-up. Imagine getting back Peyton and adding Trent Richardson, then being able to move back up for someone like Landry Jones with the 2nd+ package you get for Luck. For a team like Miami though, I think Luck is a no-brainer. Griffin was the better player in college and meant more to his team, but Luck has the higher ceiling IMO.
SAMSUNG-SGH-A887/A887UCIJ1 SHP/VPP/R5 NetFront/3.5 SMM-MMS/1.2.0 profile/MIDP-2.1 configuration/CLDC-1.1

 

[DoubleDeuce]

LOL @ DoubleDeuce... I didn't mention an Alabama player so I get a groan from him, god forbid I say that the Panthers pick is working out SO FAR.

Actually, not mentioning an Alabama player is not why I groaned you. I probably would've groaned you if you mentioned McCarron on the level of Luck or Barkley.

I groaned you because you stated Barkley > Luck, and that just isn't true.

EDIT: And also, bitching about groans? Come on, I thought you were better than that.

 

[Rblake]

Groaning benign sports opinions is fagadocious.

 

[GoChargers]

Who said it was unpredictable?

Oh yeah its real predictable.. That's why everyones mock drafts are always spot on

:thumbsdown: