Is David Ortiz a future Hall of Famer?

[Goober]

This came up on twitter. I thought it was hilarious, and don't think Ortiz makes it past his first year on the ballot.

Does anyone on VSN disagree?

 

[Warner2BruceTD]

Should be a lock.

 

[dave]

Not sure, to be honest.

 

[EmpireWF]

Borderline, I'd say no.

And he 100% definitely won't get in thanks to his (alleged) past use of anabolics.

 

[MVPete]

Well considering David Wells and Kenny Lofton didn't even get 5% this time around I doubt he would. He's definitely lumped into the steroid use crowd even though he has never tested positive or come up in any of the reports. By the time he's eligible though the writers might have caved a little on their opinions and he may stick around for a ballot or two.

 

[Warner2BruceTD]

400+ HR's, five top five MVP finishes, will finish up with well over 500 doubles, top 30 all time in slugging, a .940 lifetime OPS, a legendary postseason performer

Plus, he's still incredibly dangerous, with OPS+ of 154 & 171 the last two seasons.

I just don't get it anymore. If Ortiz isn't a Hall of Famer, fuck it, I give up.

 

[Youk]

Even the homer in me says no. He won't be off the ballot after his first year, but 400 home runs does not do it for me. Let's see how he ends his career, if he can have a couple more years like 2011, maybe it would change.

Edit: The designated hitter issue also comes into play here. Would the writers be willing to vote him in with that?

 

[Warner2BruceTD]

Edit: The designated hitter issue also comes into play here. Would the writers be willing to vote him in with that?

The writers are self important assholes.

Hopefully this current crop dies quickly and is replaced by a level headed group of reasonable thinkers.

 

[Woy]

He has the resume to get in, but with the whole PED mess, he won't.

 

[Senser81]

400+ HR's, five top five MVP finishes, will finish up with well over 500 doubles, top 30 all time in slugging, a .940 lifetime OPS, a legendary postseason performer

Plus, he's still incredibly dangerous, with OPS+ of 154 & 171 the last two seasons.

I just don't get it anymore. If Ortiz isn't a Hall of Famer, fuck it, I give up.

How do his numbers compare to Edgar Martinez?

 

[FedEx227]

If the writers are going to leave out all-time greats who they think took steroids I have a hard time believing they are going to let a guy who actually violated MLB's Drug Policy.

Then again, the writers are dumb as hell, so he'll probably get in.

As far as my vote, I don't know. I don't think he's as much of a slam dunk as Warner thinks. He doesn't grade out particularly well in any of the era and position relative statistics. When you look at the overall regular season package of David Ortiz, it's not all that much different than Carlos Delgado. I doubt we're falling over each other to give Delgado a nod. Gray Ink and Black Ink doesn't really treat him well either.

Let's run him through the Keltner List.

1. Was he ever regarded as the best player in baseball? Did anybody, while he was active, ever suggest that he was the best player in baseball?
   No.
   
2. Was he the best player on his team?
   Yes at times.
   
3. Was he the best player in baseball at his position? Was he the best player in the league at his position?
   DH? Yes. But does that count, I think it does. 1B, no.
   
4. Did he have an impact on a number of pennant races?
   Yes.
   
5. Was he a good enough player that he could continue to play regularly after passing his prime?
   Yes, he's doing it.
   
6. Is he the very best player in baseball history who is not in the Hall of Fame?
   Nowhere close.
   
7. Are most players who have comparable career statistics in the Hall of Fame?
   Not really.
   
8. Do the player's numbers meet Hall of Fame standards?
   Not really. Not by any current metric-based standard.
   
9. Is there any evidence to suggest that the player was significantly better or worse than is suggested by his statistics?
   Hard to say, don't think so, right in line actually.
   
10. Is he the best player at his position who is eligible for the Hall of Fame but not in?
    Not at all.
    
11. How many MVP-type seasons did he have? Did he ever win an MVP award? If not, how many times was he close?
    5 near MVP years. 1 2nd-place finish, a few 3rds.
    
12. How many All-Star-type seasons did he have? How many All-Star games did he play in? Did most of the other players who played in this many go to the Hall of Fame?
    8. We aren't there yet because they are still playing but that's a lot of ASGs.
    
13. If this man were the best player on his team, would it be likely that the team could win the pennant?
    Yes it would.
    
14. What impact did the player have on baseball history? Was he responsible for any rule changes? Did he introduce any new equipment? Did he change the game in any way?
    Eh not really. Historic postseasons and was one of the biggest factors in the Red Sox breaking their WS drought.
    
15. Did the player uphold the standards of sportsmanship and character that the Hall of Fame, in its written guidelines, instructs us to consider?
    Nope! Tested positive under MLB's PED program.
    

 

[Senser81]

[*]Was he the best player in baseball at his position? Was he the best player in the league at his position?
DH? Yes. But does that count, I think it does. 1B, no.

[*]Is he the best player at his position who is eligible for the Hall of Fame but not in?
Not at all.

For clarification purposes, are you saying that he isn't close to being the best player at his position not in the HOF? What DH candidates are better than Ortiz?

[*]What impact did the player have on baseball history? Was he responsible for any rule changes? Did he introduce any new equipment? Did he change the game in any way?
Eh not really. Historic postseasons and was one of the biggest factors in the Red Sox breaking their WS drought.

Ortiz changed the way baseball was covered by the media. Before Ortiz was on the Red Sox, ESPN devoted 90% of their MLB coverage to the AL East. After Ortiz, its 99%.

 

[FedEx227]

I'd argue that Edgar is better than him and he's had issues getting in. Frank Thomas, of course, but he'll be in (hopefully). You could also argue Brian Downing is better than Ortiz on a statistical level. The Hall of Stats does a good job of breaking down Ortiz versus his DH peers and echos my thoughts on a purely statistical level.

http://www.hallofstats.com/player/ortizda01

http://www.hallofstats.com/position/dh

 

[FedEx227]

Actually looking at it closer, Edgar is light years ahead of Ortiz on a statistical level. If Edgar is having issues, reason would tell you Ortiz should... but the name on his jersey won't allow that to happen.

Edgar: .312/.418/.515, 147 OPS+, 64.4 career WAR/41.8 7yr-peak WAR. Much longer and profound peak. Got lost in the award conversation with the juggernauts but stadium and era-relative stats still grade him out real well.
Ortiz: .285/.380/.547, 138 OPS+, 36.4 career WAR/30.4 7yr-peak WAR

 

[Villain]

Bad defense and baserunning. :dd:

 

[FedEx227]

I don't think that should be totally ignored (though I'm sure it will). For an almost 10-year span he was one of the worst baserunners in baseball. Fangraphs even grades him out as god awful (http://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?playerid=745&position=DH#value).

 

[Warner2BruceTD]

fwiw, it's an absolute joke that Martinez isn't in. One of the greatest hitters of his era.

If Martinez had been born a few decades earlier, he would have been a shitty 3B/1B...and he'd be in the hall of fame. What sense does that make? In a sense, the DH bias of the voters ends up giving credit to shitty fielders. 'Well, he never played the field'. Good! He sucked and would have hurt his teams!

 

[Warner2BruceTD]

What baffles me about some of the writers is how they flip flop from hard marker to soft marker.

In some cases, the same people voting for guys like Jack Morris & Alan Trammell are voting no on people like Tim Raines & Mike Piazza. You tell me which pair of players you'd start your team with.

 

[Warner2BruceTD]

Between the moral judgements, first ballot nonsense, and two different generations using two sets of statistical criteria, I honestly dont know what constitutes a HOF player anymore.

I know a great player when I see one. Ortiz was a great player who produced a bunch of memorable and impactful moments in pennant races & the post season. I kinda feel like Brad Pitt in Moneyball when Jonah Hill doesnt want him to trade Carlos Pena, but admits they would win more games with Hatteberg. "Then what are even talking about here?"

 

[Slateman]

Bad defense and baserunning. :dd:

If you get a DUI in the off-season, that gets you an MVP