Is David Ortiz a future Hall of Famer?

[FirstTimer]

I was under the impression that Ortiz never popped up on any list which FT verified but what fed is saying and the fact that nobody trusts those Dominican boys he's going to be looked at as a user.

Well he was on the 2003 list but no one knows for what.

 

[Warner2BruceTD]

I'd have a hard time even considering David Ortiz one of the best players in baseball, even the years he received MVP votes, let alone an all time great. While he has stayed consistently good, for a long time, his peak was short and it wasn't that high of a peak. And one could argue he wasn't even the best DH in the AL at that time.

Player A 2005-2007 .306/.418/.620 OPS+ 163
Player B 2004-2006 .308/.419/.611 OPS+ 170

Player B is Travis Hafner. I'm not arguing that Hafner was better at anytime, but the numbers are certainly close. Obviously Hafner's fell off quickly while Ortiz has maintained some value over a long period. But outside of those three years David Ortiz has never played at a Hall of Fame level. Is that enough of a peak for you warner? If so I think there's a lot of other players who need to be added to your HOF list.

The entire Ortiz package, the incredible peak, the career numbers, the memorable clutch performances, the postseason heroics, the fact he's still playing at a high level and adding to his numbers, being a key contributor to two WS winning teams (one of which is legendary in nature) adds up to one of the elite, signature players of his era. Pure numbers make him borderline, all of the rest, for me, push him over the top and beyond players like Hafner (no longevity), Delgado (no heroics or big time moments), McGriff (never as feared, basically the same 30 homer/.850 or so ops season every year), Helton (stronger peak but fell off faster, no big moments), etc. And keep in mind, I think at least one or two of these guys are hall of fame players as well anyway.

And again, maybe im an easy marker. I used to be a hard marker. I'd love to go back in time and tighten it up, but that ship sailed decades ago. It makes no sense to leave out the elite of this era when the notch below the elite from other eras are already in. I'd rather have Ortiz on my team than many current hall of famers.

 

[Warner2BruceTD]

I'd argue that Edgar is better than him and he's had issues getting in. Frank Thomas, of course, but he'll be in (hopefully). You could also argue Brian Downing is better than Ortiz on a statistical level. The Hall of Stats does a good job of breaking down Ortiz versus his DH peers and echos my thoughts on a purely statistical level.

http://www.hallofstats.com/player/ortizda01

http://www.hallofstats.com/position/dh

Reading back through the thread, and apparently I missed the bold.

No.

I mean, not even close.

Downing was a nice player. Never a star. Everything he did, Ortiz does better. Bordering on insulting to say he was better.

 

[Senser81]

Player B: .285/.380/.547, 138 OPS+, 36.4 career WAR/30.4 7yr-peak WAR

Player C: .313/.400/.565, 141 OPS+, 69.7 career WAR/43.1 7yr-peak WAR (GG & MVP)


My problem with Ortiz isn't really his comparison to Edgar Martinez, its that since he's a DH IMO, he has to be compared to basically every contemporary hitter not in the HOF. If a GG & MVP winner has superior batting stats to Ortiz, I don't see how Ortiz can get the HOF nod. It would be like putting a kicker like Ryan Longwell into the Football HOF because he has the same amount of points as LaDainian Tomlinson.

 

[Warner2BruceTD]

Who is "Player C"?

 

[FedEx227]

Reading back through the thread, and apparently I missed the bold.

No.

I mean, not even close.

Downing was a nice player. Never a star. Everything he did, Ortiz does better. Bordering on insulting to say he was better.

Eh, it's a little insane, I'll admit but more to Senser's point, Downing was able to play some pretty decent defense when he wasn't DHing which helps his WAR a lot. Ortiz never contributed positively on the field or on the basepaths.

Ortiz: .285/.380/.547, 138 OPS+, 36.4 career WAR/30.4 7yr-peak WAR
Downing: .267/.370/.425, 122 OPS+, 47.8 career WAR/27.6 7yr-peak WAR

His longevity is actually far superior over Ortiz (although there's time for that to change). Would I put Downing in over Ortiz, looking further at it, no, probably not. But I don't think it's insulting.

I like Ortiz a lot, but I just don't think he's as statistical significant as you're stating him to be. He had awesome postseasons yes, but otherwise his numbers don't stand out above a crowd of people still waiting at the door. You keep talking about his incredible peak when in actuality, it's pretty pedestrian. It's really good, don't get me wrong, but it's not any better than the 7-year peaks of Lance Berkman, Jason Giambi, Jim Thome, Miguel Cabrera, Carlos Delgado, Mark Teixeira, Keith Hernandez, Will Clark, Fred McGriff, etc. I don't think that entire list is HOFers and all of them arguably had just as good of or better peaks than Ortiz.

Again, if it's a should/will argument it's a different story. Should Ortiz get in? Maybe, I'll have to look at the classes coming up and see if he'd be in my Top 10. Will he? We'll have to see, it wouldn't make sense if Larry Walker and Edgar are on the outside looking in but he's got the Red Sox/ESPN bump.

 

[FedEx227]

Who is "Player C"?

I believe it's Larry Walker.

 

[Senser81]

I believe it's Larry Walker.

Its actually...

 

[Loco]

The thing that boosts Ortiz is he was a huge post season beast on both Wolrd Series teams. Ortiz was more clutch than anyone else mentioned in this thread.


Guys like Frank Thomas, Martinez, Biggio dont even compare to Ortiz postseason stats and achievements.

 

[FedEx227]

Ortiz also had way more opportunities in the postseason, I think he has about as many plate appearances as Thomas and Martinez combined.

Huge issue with postseason "clutch" because it's the same small sample size crap that gets brought up with Jack Morris. Morris in a hand-picked sample size was REALLY clutch but once he got a number of postseason games under his belt he had similar career numbers.

Ortiz' clutchness in the postseason basically boils down to a .285/.380/.547 slash in the regular season and a .283/.388/.520. Like just about any baseball player ever, when given enough plate apperances in the playoffs, they just become what they are. For every awesome postseason run he had a stinker like 2008 and 2009.

I really hate the idea of "I remember him being good in this series, so HES CLUTCH!" he's not more or less clutch than any other player or else he wouldn't have had horrible playoff numbers in the aforementioned years.

 

[Warner2BruceTD]

For me, the 2004 & 2007 postseasons, along with the 2004 pennant race, are what take him from bordeline to over the top.

I get that some people arent into that. I am. He has tons of big moments, and thats the fabric of the game.

With that said, im not putting in Jack Morris, Gene Tenace, Billy Hatcher, Scott Brosius, etc. Those guys weren't close enough or not close at all. Ortiz to me is a guy who was dominant for 5 years, really good for longer than that, and is still going. So his big time moments are icing on the cake for me.

I understand people who dont care about that. I dont agree, but I get it. For me, being a legendary performer on the big stage counts for something.

 

[ssags11]

Yeah, I'd hate to have guys that stole signs in my Hall of Fame. That's what you're talking about, right?

Stealing signs is not on the same level as PEDs or steroids. Point taken though but I do draw a line at that distinction.

 

[ssags11]

For me, the 2004 & 2007 postseasons, along with the 2004 pennant race, are what take him from bordeline to over the top.

I get that some people arent into that. I am. He has tons of big moments, and thats the fabric of the game.

With that said, im not putting in Jack Morris, Gene Tenace, Billy Hatcher, Scott Brosius, etc. Those guys weren't close enough or not close at all. Ortiz to me is a guy who was dominant for 5 years, really good for longer than that, and is still going. So his big time moments are icing on the cake for me.

I understand people who dont care about that. I dont agree, but I get it. For me, being a legendary performer on the big stage counts for something.

Sure, he had some epic seasons and trust me, they shine bright in my brain. But I am not even sure he was the best player on the Sox, Manny was if you ask me.

 

[Goober]

The thing that boosts Ortiz is he was a huge post season beast on both Wolrd Series teams. Ortiz was more clutch than anyone else mentioned in this thread.


Guys like Frank Thomas, Martinez, Biggio dont even compare to Ortiz postseason stats and achievements.

What about McGriff? Better postseason numbers, and higher career totals then Ortiz. And McGriff isn't getting in.