Jays, Bautista reach 5 year deal.

[FirstTimer]

One more thing to consider here is the Jays willingness to open the pocketbooks going forward. They have stated another 50-60M on what their current payroll is sitting at, is to be expected in the next couple of years.

So the money being spent here, isn't going to impact any ability to go after guys like Fielder next offseason.

If the offensive production continues as believed, this signing was the right move.

I think that is a HUGE leap by the Jays though. You just paid a career .240 hitter who has had one really good season the same money as a guy like Dan Uggla who, while he's only a .260ish career hitter, has been a consistant 30HR nearly 100RBI guy his entrie career. I just really can't wrap my head around this being a good contract given the complete flukey nature of Bautista's 2010 season. IMO the Jays just got rid of Well's awful deal but put another bad contract on the books with this move.

 

[killgod]

I entirely understand what you are saying, it is a leap, we took a leap recently and it didn't work out too. But you can't stop taking chances, or you're not going to get anywhere. This is only half the risk we took with Wells, so it's not devastating if it goes south.

One of the main goals for Farrell is to get more runners on base, we have power through the lineup but many of those shots last year were solo/2 run blasts. We don't need Bautista to do anything different from last year, we simply need more runners on base. We need Davis, Escobar and Hill to hit for .300, then Bautista, Lind, Arencibia to bring them home.

Again, I want to point out the "flukey" nature that's been brought up. Bautista has proven to carry over from one season to the next. His 11HR Sept 09 was part of what he did for all of that season. All but one HR was to LF, and many were well beyond the wall.

There's a lot of indicators in this "flukey" season that suggest his technique and skill have simply improved.

If he had been squeezing HR's here and there, barely clearing walls, looking shocked rather than confident at his own success, not done anything prior to the 2010 season, I'd totally be on the "fluke" side......but I see many reasons to believe that only the 50 HR plateau is the "fluke", that he'll continue to be a good player at the plate.

I've never cared in baseball what a team spends on a player, cause really, what does it matter to me? The Jays are not losing any ability to acquire players by signing this contract, they made that clear at the Season ticket holder meeting a couple weeks ago.

We still need to understand the details of this contract to really understand it. How much is guaranteed? When could the Jays opt out? How is it structured? How much related to performance?

Based on what I've seen from AA, I believe the deal will be in a situation that's favourable to both sides, but we don't know yet. I don't think this deal can truly be commended or condemned until we know those details.



Do you believe that he's going to return to a 10-15 HR's and 70 RBI? I don't see it. I didn't see a lot of luck behind what he's accomplished since he became a full time player for Toronto.

 

[FirstTimer]

I entirely understand what you are saying, it is a leap, we took a leap recently and it didn't work out too. But you can't stop taking chances, or you're not going to get anywhere. This is only half the risk we took with Wells, so it's not devastating if it goes south.

I guess but like others have said...You didn't HAVE to take this risk. You had him for another year. I see the point of taking leaps, but you jumped when you didn't have to.

One of the main goals for Farrell is to get more runners on base, we have power through the lineup but many of those shots last year were solo/2 run blasts. We don't need Bautista to do anything different from last year, we simply need more runners on base. We need Davis, Escobar and Hill to hit for .300, then Bautista, Lind, Arencibia to bring them home.

Again, I want to point out the "flukey" nature that's been brought up. Bautista has proven to carry over from one season to the next. His 11HR Sept 09 was part of what he did for all of that season. All but one HR was to LF, and many were well beyond the wall.

There's a lot of indicators in this "flukey" season that suggest his technique and skill have simply improved.

If he had been squeezing HR's here and there, barely clearing walls, looking shocked rather than confident at his own success, not done anything prior to the 2010 season, I'd totally be on the "fluke" side......but I see many reasons to believe that only the 50 HR plateau is the "fluke", that he'll continue to be a good player at the plate.

I guess I would need to know what you would qualify as Bautista earning and being worth this contract? What would a yearly "average" be for him over the life of this deal to make it worth it? Uggla-esqu .260/30/97? More? Less? What are you expectng or hoping to see?


I also think you are asking A LOT from Davis, Escobar, and Hill. Hill hasn't hit near .300 since 2007. Escobar had a rough season last year but at least has shown the potential to hit around there. Davis has been all over the place during his career and I think asking a career .281 hitter to all of a sudden hit .300 is a stretch.

I've never cared in baseball what a team spends on a player, cause really, what does it matter to me? The Jays are not losing any ability to acquire players by signing this contract, they made that clear at the Season ticket holder meeting a couple weeks ago.

We still need to understand the details of this contract to really understand it. How much is guaranteed? When could the Jays opt out? How is it structured? How much related to performance?

Very true.

Large contracts make me iffy. Then again I've had to watch Hendry throw around $$ and no trade clauses like it's candy for the last 5 seasons

Do you believe that he's going to return to a 10-15 HR's and 70 RBI? I don't see it. I didn't see a lot of luck behind what he's accomplished since he became a full time player for Toronto.

I don't think he will fall that far but in all honesty I see him falling back and averaging .240-.250 25HR's over the life of this deal. With that being my mindset I can't see this deal being a smart one.

 

[tribeTILLiDIE]

Congrats to Jose Bautista for becoming the NEW Vernon Wells of the Blue Jays. What a fucking contract.

 

[killgod]

I guess but like others have said...You didn't HAVE to take this risk. You had him for another year. I see the point of taking leaps, but you jumped when you didn't have to.

Didn't have to, no, but I think there's gains in doing so. If they went to arbitration and it was decided he was worth what the Jays wanted to pay (7.6), it may have soured the relationship. He goes on a tear, then leaves...to New York or some shit? Not a good outcome. I think the risk of him being more than a "fluke" and souring that relationship is what lead to this deal. I think AA decided he believed he was for real and that a one year arbitration ruling could ruin this situation going forward.

It also shows we're (trying to) moving up, willing to spend, desiring to win. Willing to pay when you produce, which I think is very important to all potential free agents. I think this is a positive as we head into our next window of opportunity at being a World Series contender, which I believe starts next season. Do I think Prince Fielder and Albert Pujols are aware of this deal? I think they certainly are because I'm sure both have potential destinations in their head for 2012...and this signing may make Toronto a more alluring. I truly 100% believe these players will be aggressively targeted next offseason by Toronto, this appears to be where we are headed and if so, I think this signing helps make that happen.

I guess I would need to know what you would qualify as Bautista earning and being worth this contract? What would a yearly "average" be for him over the life of this deal to make it worth it? Uggla-esqu .260/30/97? More? Less? What are you expectng or hoping to see?

I expect to see Bautista on base more, although likely through walks more than anything. There will be a bit of caution taken when he's faced, he's the HR king right now, lets not forget it. The Jays goal is to get more base runners, so he'll be more selective at the plate this year. I expect him to be a .250-.280/30-40/90-120 player throughout this deal. If so, I think the value is justified for his production, versatility and for the external factors I mentioned above.

I also think you are asking A LOT from Davis, Escobar, and Hill. Hill hasn't hit near .300 since 2007. Escobar had a rough season last year but at least has shown the potential to hit around there. Davis has been all over the place during his career and I think asking a career .281 hitter to all of a sudden hit .300 is a stretch.

I am expecting a lot from them but I think the organization is expecting a lot from too. Davis is here to steal bases and play defence, we've not had a base stealer in fucking ages. Escobar had a rough go last year, but he was very happy to be here and now that he's able to start fresh for this season, I believe that he'll get back to where he was in the beginning of his career. I don't believe he's had his "career year" yet and I think it will come in a Blue Jay uniform.

If these guys can't get it done, Hecavarria and Lawrie can't wait to play in the Majors, so we have replacement high end prospects waiting to go.

Hill could very well be moved if things don't work out as planned, and he'd likely get us a decent pull in return to continue our path to contender.

Very true.

Large contracts make me iffy. Then again I've had to watch Hendry throw around $$ and no trade clauses like it's candy for the last 5 seasons

Until we know what's guaranteed I'm not entirely worried. I don't imagine all 65 million is guaranteed, so I'm ok so far. This is half the size of Wells deal anyways, it's something we can swallow whether it goes good or bad. Rogers is far too rich for this to really matter.

I don't think he will fall that far but in all honesty I see him falling back and averaging .240-.250 25HR's over the life of this deal. With that being my mindset I can't see this deal being a smart one.

If that's where he falls, then yes this wouldn't be a smart deal, but not horrific like Wells and Rios turned out to be. Nowhere close.

 

[FirstTimer]

Do I think Prince Fielder and Albert Pujols are aware of this deal? I think they certainly are because I'm sure both have potential destinations in their head for 2012...and this signing may make Toronto a more alluring. I truly 100% believe these players will be aggressively targeted next offseason by Toronto, this appears to be where we are headed and if so, I think this signing helps make that happen.

I'm really not sure ALbert would even look at Toronto. I really highly doubt he leaves St Louis. Plus, I believe the Cubs would have more ability to sign him than Toronto. If Albert leaves St Louis I would think the: Cards, Cubs, Royals(home town team), Yanks and Red Sox are the only real players. I only add the Yanks and Sawx because with their deep pockets anything can happen. Don't know a ton on the Fielder "connection" to Toronto, other than it involves his dad, who Prince hates. Not sure Toronto has any real shot there. IMO Toronto needs to adopt more of the Tampa Bay model rather than trying to spend with the bigger teams.

I expect to see Bautista on base more, although likely through walks more than anything. There will be a bit of caution taken when he's faced, he's the HR king right now, lets not forget it. The Jays goal is to get more base runners, so he'll be more selective at the plate this year. I expect him to be a .250-.280/30-40/90-120 player throughout this deal. If so, I think the value is justified for his production, versatility and for the external factors I mentioned above.

You going to take him in the keeper league?

:smug:

Hill could very well be moved if things don't work out as planned, and he'd likely get us a decent pull in return to continue our path to contender.

He will have to hit more than .205 to get anything back but depending on what is asked of him I could see a team like the Cubs being interested. I'm not very high on Darwin Barney as the 2B of the future in Chicago.

If that's where he falls, then yes this wouldn't be a smart deal, but not horrific like Wells and Rios turned out to be. Nowhere close.

Agreed. I don't think it's as bad as either of those deals. I still think it's a bad contract but not the "fails" that those other deals were.

 

[Boucher]

KG you got season ticks? You know if you ever cant make it to a game...holla

 

[killgod]

I'm really not sure ALbert would even look at Toronto. I really highly doubt he leaves St Louis. Plus, I believe the Cubs would have more ability to sign him than Toronto. If Albert leaves St Louis I would think the: Cards, Cubs, Royals(home town team), Yanks and Red Sox are the only real players. I only add the Yanks and Sawx because with their deep pockets anything can happen. Don't know a ton on the Fielder "connection" to Toronto, other than it involves his dad, who Prince hates. Not sure Toronto has any real shot there. IMO Toronto needs to adopt more of the Tampa Bay model rather than trying to spend with the bigger teams.

I don't believe they'd land Pujols, but will they go for it? Absolutely. They'd likely be willing to give him the money he wants tho. Point is, that's where Toronto is headed, where no free agent is out of our range and no contract is out of our range for the most part. We haven't been this in 17 years.

The Cecil Fielder connecting is rather irrelevant, I only ever brought it up on the past because you'd assume Prince would have spent time in Toronto as a kid, so there'd be some familiarity to the location.

I think there's allure in playing in the AL East, playing either for or against the teams within that division. Playing for a contender, or an up and coming one is also worthwhile. Toronto is also a park where Fielder could hit a lot of dingers. I think there's some sense in him coming here. We have a starting rotation of young but very talented arms, we have some decent position players in place with prospects starting to hit the majors too. You could say we are doing what Tampa Bay has done, although by acquiring other teams prospects through blowing up our last team build. Lots of young high potential players on this team.

As for the organization plan, Toronto is not just trying to be a big spender, but are also building a farm system. We've been doing more of the farm system than anything the past 2 seasons and will continue. There was a organization rule that no more than 1,000,000 would be spent on caribbean prospects, which AA abolished when he got here by first spending like 7M on Hecavarria, topping the Yankees in that bidding war.

So Toronto is building it's club from within, but has a market where it can spend 150M a year if it wants, that's something Tampa Bay can't do. Toronto is going for the complete package of development and spending....or so they tell us.

You going to take him in the keeper league?

:smug:

First overall.

He will have to hit more than .205 to get anything back but depending on what is asked of him I could see a team like the Cubs being interested. I'm not very high on Darwin Barney as the 2B of the future in Chicago.

I think his average of last year won't be seen again, he's also clubbed 60HR's in the past 2 years and is a decent defender (waits for some random AFSDHSDV stat to discredit that comment).

Agreed. I don't think it's as bad as either of those deals. I still think it's a bad contract but not the "fails" that those other deals were.

Even if he fails, it's only a bad contract if Toronto can't get out of it before the end. And still if it's bad, won't effect us from continuing to build the roster.

 

[killgod]

KG you got season ticks? You know if you ever cant make it to a game...holla

No I don't, I just watched the video of the event and read up on it.

You can buy 500 Level season tickets for 90 bucks though.

 

[Boucher]

Fuck that noise id like to able to see the players