Hold on now. Don't put it down just yet that Indianapolis will win its way out of the No. 1 pick in the 2012 NFL draft. If the Colts lose their next game, they'll still be in line for the No. 1 pick and will begin what should be a very interesting offseason as it pertains to the quarterback position. But what if they do manage to win their way down the draft board?
For starters, it'll certainly shake things up in the top 10. But let's start now with an already shaken top 10 -- literally, the 10 teams that would draft first if the season ended today based on the standings -- and start looking at the needs and scenarios. Just remember a couple of things:
• The value argument: Although many believe that teams drafting high are more married to drafting on need -- after all, they are apt to get the pick of the litter at each position group -- the opposite can be true, and you'll see it when I discuss Indy. When you're drafting high, you can't be married to need alone, because even with the lower cost tacked to these picks with the new collective bargaining agreement, you can't miss.
• The need argument: I am using a preliminary list of needs. Remember, free agency is back in play this year, so many of these roster holes can be targeted before April's draft.
With that, let's speculate on some early scenarios.
Indianapolis Colts
Top needs DT, OL, WR, QB
Scenarios: The funny thing about Indy is that while people sit here and debate whether it should trade the No. 1 pick, from where I sit, if it did manage to play its way out of the No. 1 pick, it would be the team that absolutely should trade down. Why? Well, the Colts desperately need something closer to an elite defensive tackle, and I just don't see one who can be of enough value to take so high. Currently, the highest defensive tackle on my Big Board is down at No. 14. That's just too much of a reach. After that, the Colts really could use a dominant interior offensive lineman, but we know you don't chase those guys this high. I'd also really like to see them look for a wideout because of Reggie Wayne's future uncertain, but they couldn't spend a high draft pick on one given the other needs, so even Justin Blackmon wouldn't make much sense so high.
What would make sense would be taking Andrew Luck with the No. 1 pick and dealing with whatever fallout may come, because you make the move that's in the best interest of the franchise, period. No organization better understands the value of consistently elite quarterback play, and Peyton Manning's assumed health can't be taken for granted. He's a brilliant quarterback when healthy, but he's 36, and the "one hit away" cliché has rarely felt more real.
Minnesota Vikings
Top needs LT, CB/S, WR
Scenarios: If Minnesota bats second, I think it'll be happy with Matt Kalil. The Vikings need to upgrade at the left tackle position over Charlie Johnson, and the left tackle from USC is pretty close to can't-miss. There's also the possibility that the Vikings could go for a corner, in which case Morris Claiborne of LSU comes into play. Claiborne might be a slight reach at No. 2, so I'd go for the better player at the bigger need, but if they fall down the board, cornerback can come into the picture. The Vikings also could really use a top wide receiver, and if Blackmon runs an incredible 40-yard-dash time, I could see a team at least tempted as high as No. 2, although I agree with my colleague Todd McShay that it always feels like a stretch to draft a wideout that high unless he's a guy you believe could be the best at his position -- not just on your team, but in the league. The Vikes also need help at safety, but there's not enough value to be found; I don't even have a safety among the current top 25 players, so that's not something you do early unless you've traded way down.
Overall, the Vikings are another team I can see trading down. Does the newfound QB scarcity have them taking calls at No. 2, 3 or 4 for a team to get into position to draft Robert Griffin III? Why not?
St. Louis Rams
Top needs LT, WR, CB
Scenarios: Rodger Saffold took a step back this year, and the Rams have had all kinds of protection problems. If they get an elite left tackle, the Rams could move Saffold to the right side and get better in two spots. (This is why even when there's an adequate left tackle in place, I'll usually refer to left tackle as a need. You don't want "adequate" at that position if you think you can draft a great one and fix two positions with one pick.) We know the Rams desperately need a wideout who can help out in the passing game. I think if the Rams are at No. 3 or 4, it'd be a pretty logical place for Blackmon to come off the board. Similar to the Vikings, the Rams could use a corner in that secondary, which has been decimated by injuries.
Jacksonville Jaguars
Top needs WR, DE, CB
Scenarios: The Jaguars are terrible at wide receiver, which makes it hard to even evaluate Blaine Gabbert. I know Gabbert hasn't been very good, but can you imagine the difference in the career starts of Gabbert and Andy Dalton right now if you took A.J. Green off the Bengals and made him a Jag? Face it: It matters to have serious talent. So you could absolutely see the Jags eyeing Blackmon with a pick in the middle of the top 10. (Starting to see how nice it could be for Blackmon, huh?) The Jags also need a corner, although that position might not look as bad depending on how they evaluate their roster when fully healthy. But like St. Louis, they've been decimated in the secondary. The Jags also really need a defensive end, and this is where you could see North Carolina's Quinton Coples coming into the picture. He's currently the top 4-3 defensive end on the board.
Cleveland Browns
Top needs WR, DE, RB, QB
Scenarios: Greg Little has shown flashes, but the Browns could use another threat in the passing game. Jabaal Sheard has been as good as I hoped he'd be when I talked up that pick back in April, but they could really use someone on the other side of the formation to balance the pass rush. Then it gets really interesting.
I agree with Todd McShay that the Browns could be the rare team that is willing to pick a running back high in the draft, with Alabama's Trent Richardson the obvious name. Peyton Hillis is likely to play somewhere else in 2012, and Richardson fills that hole. But besides that, there's a real question regarding Colt McCoy and how committed to him the Browns are. Although I wouldn't predict it now, the Browns could be in the picture for Griffin.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Top needs CB, OLB, OL, RB
Scenarios: If the draft were held today, and the teams ahead of Buccaneers were maximizing need and value, the Bucs would be in a good spot to trade down. I'd like to see them get a corner, a guy like Alfonzo Dennard of Nebraska or Janoris Jenkins of North Alabama, or even Dre Kirkpatrick of Alabama probably could be had a little later. I know McShay has Kirkpatrick to the Bucs in his first mock, but I need to see a little more for him to get this high. They won't find the outside linebacker fit for their scheme as a good value this high, and I think the type of running back they need is more in the mold of LaMichael James. Tampa needs a speed threat to balance LaGarrette Blount.
The Bucs would love it if Claiborne were available, but if he's not, I feel like Tampa could move off a high pick.
Washington Redskins
Top needs QB, OL, CB, WR
Scenarios: No team should have been more disappointed by Matt Barkley's decision to return to USC than the Redskins. Not because they should have been targeting Barkley specifically, but because they could be forced to trade up if they want to make sure they can get the second-best guy on the board in RGIII. Are they willing to move more picks, a blight in recent years, to get the quarterback? Or do they hope he falls to them at somewhere between the No. 6 and 10 picks? The other option is to take a hard look at Landry Jones, but I'm really not sure Jones is a top-10 pick right now, and he could choose to stay to Oklahoma.
If the Redskins don't go with a quarterback and address that position in free agency (Matt Flynn, Brian Hoyer?) or trades (do they call Indy?) the Skins could certainly use a guy like Iowa's Riley Reiff to solidify an offensive line that isn't good beyond Trent Williams. If Blackmon is still around, he could be considered as well. There's probably not a more interesting team in the draft in terms of positioning than the Skins.
Carolina Panthers
Top needs DT, CB, WR
Scenarios: They got some good play from young defensive tackles this year, but this team needs to be better up front to stop the run consistently. It might be a little early to pick a guy like Devon Still of Penn State, Brandon Thompson of Clemson or Jerel Worthy of Michigan State, but the Panthers could look at each. They also really could use a cornerback across from Chris Gamble and another wide receiver to complement the still very good Steve Smith. Would Alshon Jeffery of South Carolina make sense? Jeffery will need to show some wheels if he comes out of school, but Carolina might be an ideal destination for the massive, 6-foot-5, 230-plus pound wide receiver.
Miami Dolphins
Top needs RT, QB, OLB, WR
Scenarios: Did I say the Redskins were the team most hurt by Barkley's decision? Well, the Dolphins certainly could fall in that camp, even with the flashes they've seen from Matt Moore this year. Moore is signed through 2012, and there's a chance the new coach will stick with him, but obviously the franchise needs to think about that position. Elsewhere, the team could really use a right tackle, and Reiff or even Stanford's Jonathan Martin could come into the picture. Both could eventually land on the left side, but that's what you want in a young right tackle. I also think the Dolphins will want to think about another pass-rushing outside linebacker across from Cameron Wake. Koa Misi's play hasn't been what I thought it would be by this point. They could also use a wideout across the formation from Brandon Marshall.
Buffalo Bills
Top needs OT, DE/OLB, WR
Scenarios: Their needs obviously shift some if Stevie Johnson isn't back in 2012, but I think the Bills should look up front and do as much as they can to protect Ryan Fitzpatrick to make sure they get as much return on that investment as they can. Reiff or Martin both make sense. One intriguing scenario is if Richardson is still on the board when the Bills pick. Do they go with the dynamic runner out of Alabama as the counter to C.J. Spiller and pass on keeping Fred Jackson around? It's not out of the realm of possibility.
For starters, it'll certainly shake things up in the top 10. But let's start now with an already shaken top 10 -- literally, the 10 teams that would draft first if the season ended today based on the standings -- and start looking at the needs and scenarios. Just remember a couple of things:
• The value argument: Although many believe that teams drafting high are more married to drafting on need -- after all, they are apt to get the pick of the litter at each position group -- the opposite can be true, and you'll see it when I discuss Indy. When you're drafting high, you can't be married to need alone, because even with the lower cost tacked to these picks with the new collective bargaining agreement, you can't miss.
• The need argument: I am using a preliminary list of needs. Remember, free agency is back in play this year, so many of these roster holes can be targeted before April's draft.
With that, let's speculate on some early scenarios.
Indianapolis Colts
Top needs DT, OL, WR, QB
Scenarios: The funny thing about Indy is that while people sit here and debate whether it should trade the No. 1 pick, from where I sit, if it did manage to play its way out of the No. 1 pick, it would be the team that absolutely should trade down. Why? Well, the Colts desperately need something closer to an elite defensive tackle, and I just don't see one who can be of enough value to take so high. Currently, the highest defensive tackle on my Big Board is down at No. 14. That's just too much of a reach. After that, the Colts really could use a dominant interior offensive lineman, but we know you don't chase those guys this high. I'd also really like to see them look for a wideout because of Reggie Wayne's future uncertain, but they couldn't spend a high draft pick on one given the other needs, so even Justin Blackmon wouldn't make much sense so high.
What would make sense would be taking Andrew Luck with the No. 1 pick and dealing with whatever fallout may come, because you make the move that's in the best interest of the franchise, period. No organization better understands the value of consistently elite quarterback play, and Peyton Manning's assumed health can't be taken for granted. He's a brilliant quarterback when healthy, but he's 36, and the "one hit away" cliché has rarely felt more real.
Minnesota Vikings
Top needs LT, CB/S, WR
Scenarios: If Minnesota bats second, I think it'll be happy with Matt Kalil. The Vikings need to upgrade at the left tackle position over Charlie Johnson, and the left tackle from USC is pretty close to can't-miss. There's also the possibility that the Vikings could go for a corner, in which case Morris Claiborne of LSU comes into play. Claiborne might be a slight reach at No. 2, so I'd go for the better player at the bigger need, but if they fall down the board, cornerback can come into the picture. The Vikings also could really use a top wide receiver, and if Blackmon runs an incredible 40-yard-dash time, I could see a team at least tempted as high as No. 2, although I agree with my colleague Todd McShay that it always feels like a stretch to draft a wideout that high unless he's a guy you believe could be the best at his position -- not just on your team, but in the league. The Vikes also need help at safety, but there's not enough value to be found; I don't even have a safety among the current top 25 players, so that's not something you do early unless you've traded way down.
Overall, the Vikings are another team I can see trading down. Does the newfound QB scarcity have them taking calls at No. 2, 3 or 4 for a team to get into position to draft Robert Griffin III? Why not?
St. Louis Rams
Top needs LT, WR, CB
Scenarios: Rodger Saffold took a step back this year, and the Rams have had all kinds of protection problems. If they get an elite left tackle, the Rams could move Saffold to the right side and get better in two spots. (This is why even when there's an adequate left tackle in place, I'll usually refer to left tackle as a need. You don't want "adequate" at that position if you think you can draft a great one and fix two positions with one pick.) We know the Rams desperately need a wideout who can help out in the passing game. I think if the Rams are at No. 3 or 4, it'd be a pretty logical place for Blackmon to come off the board. Similar to the Vikings, the Rams could use a corner in that secondary, which has been decimated by injuries.
Jacksonville Jaguars
Top needs WR, DE, CB
Scenarios: The Jaguars are terrible at wide receiver, which makes it hard to even evaluate Blaine Gabbert. I know Gabbert hasn't been very good, but can you imagine the difference in the career starts of Gabbert and Andy Dalton right now if you took A.J. Green off the Bengals and made him a Jag? Face it: It matters to have serious talent. So you could absolutely see the Jags eyeing Blackmon with a pick in the middle of the top 10. (Starting to see how nice it could be for Blackmon, huh?) The Jags also need a corner, although that position might not look as bad depending on how they evaluate their roster when fully healthy. But like St. Louis, they've been decimated in the secondary. The Jags also really need a defensive end, and this is where you could see North Carolina's Quinton Coples coming into the picture. He's currently the top 4-3 defensive end on the board.
Cleveland Browns
Top needs WR, DE, RB, QB
Scenarios: Greg Little has shown flashes, but the Browns could use another threat in the passing game. Jabaal Sheard has been as good as I hoped he'd be when I talked up that pick back in April, but they could really use someone on the other side of the formation to balance the pass rush. Then it gets really interesting.
I agree with Todd McShay that the Browns could be the rare team that is willing to pick a running back high in the draft, with Alabama's Trent Richardson the obvious name. Peyton Hillis is likely to play somewhere else in 2012, and Richardson fills that hole. But besides that, there's a real question regarding Colt McCoy and how committed to him the Browns are. Although I wouldn't predict it now, the Browns could be in the picture for Griffin.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Top needs CB, OLB, OL, RB
Scenarios: If the draft were held today, and the teams ahead of Buccaneers were maximizing need and value, the Bucs would be in a good spot to trade down. I'd like to see them get a corner, a guy like Alfonzo Dennard of Nebraska or Janoris Jenkins of North Alabama, or even Dre Kirkpatrick of Alabama probably could be had a little later. I know McShay has Kirkpatrick to the Bucs in his first mock, but I need to see a little more for him to get this high. They won't find the outside linebacker fit for their scheme as a good value this high, and I think the type of running back they need is more in the mold of LaMichael James. Tampa needs a speed threat to balance LaGarrette Blount.
The Bucs would love it if Claiborne were available, but if he's not, I feel like Tampa could move off a high pick.
Washington Redskins
Top needs QB, OL, CB, WR
Scenarios: No team should have been more disappointed by Matt Barkley's decision to return to USC than the Redskins. Not because they should have been targeting Barkley specifically, but because they could be forced to trade up if they want to make sure they can get the second-best guy on the board in RGIII. Are they willing to move more picks, a blight in recent years, to get the quarterback? Or do they hope he falls to them at somewhere between the No. 6 and 10 picks? The other option is to take a hard look at Landry Jones, but I'm really not sure Jones is a top-10 pick right now, and he could choose to stay to Oklahoma.
If the Redskins don't go with a quarterback and address that position in free agency (Matt Flynn, Brian Hoyer?) or trades (do they call Indy?) the Skins could certainly use a guy like Iowa's Riley Reiff to solidify an offensive line that isn't good beyond Trent Williams. If Blackmon is still around, he could be considered as well. There's probably not a more interesting team in the draft in terms of positioning than the Skins.
Carolina Panthers
Top needs DT, CB, WR
Scenarios: They got some good play from young defensive tackles this year, but this team needs to be better up front to stop the run consistently. It might be a little early to pick a guy like Devon Still of Penn State, Brandon Thompson of Clemson or Jerel Worthy of Michigan State, but the Panthers could look at each. They also really could use a cornerback across from Chris Gamble and another wide receiver to complement the still very good Steve Smith. Would Alshon Jeffery of South Carolina make sense? Jeffery will need to show some wheels if he comes out of school, but Carolina might be an ideal destination for the massive, 6-foot-5, 230-plus pound wide receiver.
Miami Dolphins
Top needs RT, QB, OLB, WR
Scenarios: Did I say the Redskins were the team most hurt by Barkley's decision? Well, the Dolphins certainly could fall in that camp, even with the flashes they've seen from Matt Moore this year. Moore is signed through 2012, and there's a chance the new coach will stick with him, but obviously the franchise needs to think about that position. Elsewhere, the team could really use a right tackle, and Reiff or even Stanford's Jonathan Martin could come into the picture. Both could eventually land on the left side, but that's what you want in a young right tackle. I also think the Dolphins will want to think about another pass-rushing outside linebacker across from Cameron Wake. Koa Misi's play hasn't been what I thought it would be by this point. They could also use a wideout across the formation from Brandon Marshall.
Buffalo Bills
Top needs OT, DE/OLB, WR
Scenarios: Their needs obviously shift some if Stevie Johnson isn't back in 2012, but I think the Bills should look up front and do as much as they can to protect Ryan Fitzpatrick to make sure they get as much return on that investment as they can. Reiff or Martin both make sense. One intriguing scenario is if Richardson is still on the board when the Bills pick. Do they go with the dynamic runner out of Alabama as the counter to C.J. Spiller and pass on keeping Fred Jackson around? It's not out of the realm of possibility.
