Larry Walker: Hall of Famer?

[FedEx227]

http://www.baseball-reference.com/minors/player.cgi?id=willia005law

Career .285/.337/.368 in the minors. No way he's in.

 

[Senser81]

Okay, on to the splits. They absolutely devalue his resume. He's not the fraud that Dante Bichette was but isn't some all time great either. Sure, 1997 was great but his entire career tells the real story:

Larry Williams|G|H|2B|3B|HR|RBI|BA|OBP|SLG|OPS
@ Coors Field|597|814|178|31|154|521| .381 | .462 | .710 | 1.172
Everywhere Else|1391|1346|293|31|229|790| .282 | .372 | .501 | .873

To simplify:

Williams per 162 game Avg|H|2B|3B|HR|RBI
@ Coors Field|221|48|8|42|141
Everywhere Else|157|34|4|27|92

I would think that Walker's "Everywhere Else" numbers are slightly skewed for two reasons. One, he played many "Everywhere Else" games at Olympic Stadium in Montreal, which was a great pitcher's park. Two, his prime years were at Colorado, while his 'bad' years were his first few seasons at Montreal and his last couple seasons at St. Louis, giving him an inordinate number of bad "Everywhere Else" games.

It would be like showing that Favre did better at Lambeau than "Everywhere Else", which would include some stinker games he had for the Jets and Vikings.

 

[FedEx227]

For what it's worth, he was .293/.373/.518 career at Olympic Stadium.

 

[NAHSTE]

I would think that Walker's "Everywhere Else" numbers are slightly skewed for two reasons. One, he played many "Everywhere Else" games at Olympic Stadium in Montreal, which was a great pitcher's park. Two, his prime years were at Colorado, while his 'bad' years were his first few seasons at Montreal and his last couple seasons at St. Louis, giving him an inordinate number of bad "Everywhere Else" games.

It would be like showing that Favre did better at Lambeau than "Everywhere Else", which would include some stinker games he had for the Jets and Vikings.

I was gonna say this. I'd like to see his "everywhere else" split for just his years spent in Colorado. His HR numbers seem to be pretty even between home and away, but I can definitely see how Coors helped his average and SLG pct. because it's such a cavernous outfield that more outs become singles and more singles become doubles, etc. Just looking at his 2001 H/A split, he hit .406 at Coors and .293 elsewhere. In 1999, he hit .461 (!!!) at home.

 

[dell71]

Who is Larry Williams? That guy was awesome.

Good catch...I goofed that one up.

I would think that Walker's "Everywhere Else" numbers are slightly skewed for two reasons. One, he played many "Everywhere Else" games at Olympic Stadium in Montreal, which was a great pitcher's park. Two, his prime years were at Colorado, while his 'bad' years were his first few seasons at Montreal and his last couple seasons at St. Louis, giving him an inordinate number of bad "Everywhere Else" games.

It would be like showing that Favre did better at Lambeau than "Everywhere Else", which would include some stinker games he had for the Jets and Vikings.

Not quite. A better football comparison would be a kicker who played all of his home games in a dome and was great there, but struggled outdoors. Either way, I see your point.

However, during those prime years in Colorado, he had to play road games, too. If he were such a slam dunk great player (not saying that you said that), would there be almost a 100 point gap between what he did at Coors & what he did elsewhere?

I'm not seeing your point though, dell.

Yeah his counting stats likely were helped by Coors Field, nobody is denying that. But when you take a more intricate stat like OPS+, which regulates for league and park factors, Walker stacks up as an all-time great.

My point is when you drop those counting stats, the metrics are going to drop, including OPS+. When that number is being calculated, it's on a guy hitting .282 with a .873 ops as opposed to a guy with .313 avg and .965 ops. Obviously, well above average but not to the point we're calling him a surefire HOFer. Without going through and doing the actual calculation (have at it, if you wish) I'd guess it would be somewhere between 115 & 125 and not the 140 that is his career mark.

 

[Warner2BruceTD]

My point is when you drop those counting stats, the metrics are going to drop, including OPS+. When that number is being calculated, it's on a guy hitting .282 with a .873 ops as opposed to a guy with .313 avg and .965 ops. Obviously, well above average but not to the point we're calling him a surefire HOFer. Without going through and doing the actual calculation (have at it, if you wish) I'd guess it would be somewhere between 115 & 125 and not the 140 that is his career mark.

dell, the OPS+ takes the parks into account, and the number is normalized.

In a bizzaro world where he never played a day in Coors, and he was the same exact player, his OPS+ would be the same,even with a lower OPS. That's why guys like Dante Bichette and Vinny Castilla have big statistical seasons, but have OPS+ for those seasons that barely crack 100.

The guy hitting .282 with the .873 OPS can, in theory, have a higher OPS+ than the guy who hit .313 with the .965.

Here is the top ten OPS for the NL last year:

1. Votto (CIN) 1.024
2. Pujols (STL) 1.011
3. Gonzalez (COL) .974
4. Tulowitzki (COL) .949
5. Holliday (STL) .922
6. Werth (PHI) .921
7. Gonzalez (SDP) .904
8. Zimmerman (WSN) .899
9. Dunn (WSN) .892
10. Huff (SFG) .891

Now here is the top ten in OPS+

1. Votto (CIN) 174
2. Pujols (STL) 173
3. Gonzalez (SDP) 152
4. Holliday (STL) 149
5. Werth (PHI) 145
6. Gonzalez (COL) 143
7. Zimmerman (WSN) 142
8. Dunn (WSN) 138
9. Tulowitzki (COL) 138
10. Huff (SFG) 138

Notice how the order is slightly different. Adrian Gonzalez, Ryan Zimmerman and Adam Dunn are higher on the OPS+ list, due to the adjustments for playing the majority of their games in tough hitting parks. The Colorado guys move down on the OPS+ list, penalized slightly for playing in a favorable hitting park. Dunn's .892 & Tulo's .949 are actually valued as equal when normalized.

Walker's OPS+ numbers have already been "punished" for the Coors factor, which is why voters shouldnt "punish" him again. His numbers are the real deal, he was a great hitter.

 

[Warner2BruceTD]

I was gonna say this. I'd like to see his "everywhere else" split for just his years spent in Colorado. His HR numbers seem to be pretty even between home and away, but I can definitely see how Coors helped his average and SLG pct. because it's such a cavernous outfield that more outs become singles and more singles become doubles, etc. Just looking at his 2001 H/A split, he hit .406 at Coors and .293 elsewhere. In 1999, he hit .461 (!!!) at home.

This is where OPS+ comes into play.

Somebody like Bichette hitting .302 at Coors isnt very impressive when you have Walker hittiing .461. I don't care if you play on the moon, that's great hitting.

 

[dell71]

For what it's worth, he was .293/.373/.518 career at Olympic Stadium.

Much more in line with the type of player he really was, imho.

I was gonna say this. I'd like to see his "everywhere else" split for just his years spent in Colorado. His HR numbers seem to be pretty even between home and away, but I can definitely see how Coors helped his average and SLG pct. because it's such a cavernous outfield that more outs become singles and more singles become doubles, etc. Just looking at his 2001 H/A split, he hit .406 at Coors and .293 elsewhere. In 1999, he hit .461 (!!!) at home.

Ask & ye shall receive (sometimes)...thru 2003, his last complete season as a Rockie:

1995

@|G|BA|HR|RBI|OPS|OPS+
Home|.343|64|24|59|1.131|189
Away|.268|67|12|42|.845|127

1996

@|G|BA|HR|RBI|OPS|OPS+
Home|43|.393|12|45|1.248|212
Away|40|.142|6|13|.523|38

*neither 212 nor 38 OPS+ is a misprint

1997

@|G|BA|HR|RBI|OPS|OPS+
Home|78|.384|20|68|1.169|199
Away|75|.346|29|62|1.176|213

1998

@|G|BA|HR|RBI|OPS|OPS+
Home|65|.418|17|44|1.241|218
Away|65|.302|6|23|.892|141

1999

@|G|BA|HR|RBI|OPS|OPS+
Home|66|.461|26|70|1.410|253
Away|61|.286|11|45|.894|131

2000

@|G|BA|HR|RBI|OPS|OPS+
Home|41|.359|7|36|1.062|165
Away|46|.259|2|15|.770|103

2001

@|G|BA|HR|RBI|OPS|OPS+
Home|70|.406|20|74|1.256|222
Away|72|.293|18|49|.965|158

2002

@|G|BA|HR|RBI|OPS|OPS+
Home|70|.362|18|66|1.124|192
Away|66|.312|8|38|.917|149

2003

@|G|BA|HR|RBI|OPS|OPS+
Home|73|.338|8|50|1.021|166
Away|70|.227|8|29|.766|109

W2BTD: This illustrates my point about OPS+...his is significantly lower on the road in every season except '97 when he was simply tearing the cover off the ball no matter where he played. It's the same guy, playing in the same parks as everyone else. Overall, he was very good in all of them except one, with some really good years and some bad ones; one of the better hitters in the league, but not quite elite. In that other park, he was far beyond elite. He was God-like.

 

[Warner2BruceTD]

The road OPS+ numbers for the years you posted...

127
38
213
141
131
103
158
149
109

The 38 & the 103 were years where he was injured and played less than 90 games, and the 109 was when he was 36 years old.

The rest of those numbers are actually top level road OPS+ figures. How many players do you think put up ROAD numbers like 213, 141, 131, 158, and 149?! That's elite, top level, superstar road production right there.

And the home numbers are just off the charts phenominal. Remember, it's normalized, so if Walker is putting up a 222 at home, that means he is 122% better than the average player at Coors.

And we should punish him for this?!

This guy was an MVP hitter on the road, and inhuman at home. Those numbers actually make me feel stronger towards my stance - the guy should be a lock for Cooperstown.

 

[dell71]

The 38 & the 103 were years where he was injured and played less than 90 games, and the 109 was when he was 36 years old. Was he only hurting during road games? In each of those years he was over 165 at home, including 212 in the same year he had 38 on the road.

The rest of those numbers are actually top level road OPS+ figures. How many players do you think put up ROAD numbers like 213, 141, 131, 158, and 149?! That's elite, top level, superstar road production right there. Those are excellent numbers, but he was also fully capable of being not so excellent.

And the home numbers are just off the charts phenominal. Remember, it's normalized, so if Walker is putting up a 222 at home, that means he is 122% better than the average player at Coors.

And we should punish him for this?! Not punish him, but not just give him the golden ticket, either.

This guy was an MVP hitter on the road, and inhuman at home. Those numbers actually make me feel stronger towards my stance - the guy should be a lock for Cooperstown.

We'll just have to agree to disagree on this one.