Mets Offseason Thread

[EmpireWF]

The Mets opening day payroll in April 2011 was over $140 million. GM Sandy Alderson has publicly said to expect the 2012 payroll to be in the $100-$110 million ballpark.

Right now, here's how the salary structure stands entering next year…

STARTERS
1. LHP Johan Santana - Missed all of 2011 after shoulder surgery. Expected to be good to go next season. Will make $24 million (not including potential incentives) and is under contract for two additional years.

2. RHP Mike Pelfrey - Very average year. Is eligible for arbitration again so chances are he will make over $6 million. Under team control through 2013.

3. RHP R.A. Dickey - Had a good year. Will make $4.25 million and is under contract through 2013.

4. LHP Jon Niese - Decent year. Under team control for about 4 more years. Will still make under $1 million.

5. LHP Chris Capuano - Turned out to be a great signing. FREE AGENT. Figures to be a hot commodity on the open market. If he's interested in staying, could be out of the pen or rotation.

6. RHP Dillon Gee - Under team control for about 5 more years.

7. RHP Chris Young - Started great but injury cost him the season. FREE AGENT.

----Don't expect any massive overhauls of the rotation. The only issue could be if they deal Mike Pelfrey but I would consider that a longshot. It would be swell if they could get another ace or a legit #2 starter, but supply is low and the Mets don't figure to have enough money to compete with the big spenders this winter. Plus, I don't see them willing to deal the farm for anything right now. My guess is Santana, Pelfrey, Dickey, Niese and Gee make up the starting rotation to kick of 2012.-----

BULLPEN

-RHP Ryota Igarashi -- FREE AGENT
-RHP D.J. Carrasco -- $1.2 Million entering his walk year
-LHP Tim Byrdak -- $1 Million entering his walk year
-RHP Miguel Batista -- FREE AGENT
-RHP Jason Isranghausen -- FREE AGENT
-RHP Taylor Buchholz -- Arbitration eligible
-RHP Bobby Parnell -- Arbitration eligible
-RHP Manny Acosta -- Arbitration eligible
-RHP Pedro Beato -- Under team control for 4 more years…no longer rule 5 status (picked from BAL in 2011)

-------Rough. No legit closer on the team so expect them to go elsewhere. Worst case scenario, they don't make a move and try Parnell again or closer by committeeitte with Beato. The pen needs work.----------


LINE-UP

-OF Jason Bay -- $16 million (with at least $19 million coming to him in 2013 & 2014)…my goodness what a bomb this signing turned out to be.
-3B David Wright -- $15 million (he has a $16M team option/$1M buyout in 2013)…..will be tons of talk about the Mets listening to offers throughout next season
-SS Jose Reyes -- FREE AGENT
-OF Angel Pagan -- Arbitration eligible (Horrible year, I hope they go elsewhere for a CF)
-C Ronny Paulino -- Arbitration eligible (I'd guess he's 50/50 to return)
-OF Scott Hairston -- FREE AGENT
-OF Willie Harris -- FREE AGENT
-1B Ike Davis -- under team control for at least 4 more years (missed most of 2011 with ankle injury. Avoided surgery, figures to be ready for spring straining…I hope)
-UTI Dan Murphy -- under team control through 2015 (had a good year with the bat, ended with an injury. His problem = no definitive position. Poor defense but he has a great bat)
-C Josh Thole -- under team control for long time (do they have faith in him to be every day catcher…I don't know)
-OF Lucas Duda -- under team control….
-C Mike Nickeas -- under team control….(word is they'd like to get him up because he calls a great game)
-IF Ruben Tejada -- under team control (figures to become starting SS if Reyes signs elsewhere)
-IF Justin Turner -- under team control (probably a bench player)

------

Commitments at this point…
-Santana $24M
-Bay $18M
-Wright $15M
-Dickey $4M
-Carrasco $1M
-Byrdak $1M
-Pelfrey $5M
= just under $70 million is already spoken for. Add $5 mil for raises and other arbitration increases.

If they are able to resign Reyes, add another $15M to that total, which means they'd have maybe $10-15 million to spend on a new center fielder, bullpen help/closer and perhaps a second baseman.


------
Estimated Opening Day Line-up (With & W/O Reyes)

1. SS Jose Reyes
2. CF Cheap Veteran Free Agent (the market is beyond terrible)
3. 3B David Wright
4. 1B Ike Davis
5. LF Jason Bay
6. 2B Daniel Murphy
7. RF Lucas Duda
8. C Josh Thole


1. SS Ruben Tejada
2. CF Cheap Veteran Free Agent
3. 3B David Wright
4. 1B Ike Davis
5. LF Jason Bay
6. 2B Daniel Murphy
7. RF Lucas Duda
8. C Josh Thole

:shot: -- what a shitty line-up
------

Prospects in Play

1. RHP Jenrry Mejia - Underwent Tommy John surgery after a few starts at AAA. Expected to be out of action until the middle of the 2012 season at best. If the arm holds up then, he will compete for a big league starting job in 2013.

2. CF Kirk Nieuwenhuis - If he were healthy, the starting CF job would likely be his for the taking. But he's not. He underwent shoulder surgery a couple months back which ended his season at AAA. He will be 25-years old next summer so his window may be closing. Plus, some believe he projects to a corner OF spot.

3. RHP Matt Harvey - The 2010 1st round pick did well in 12 starts at AA in his first pro season. Odds are he'll start 2012 there before earning a spot at AAA. Ultimately, he could be a September call-up. He should compete for a starting job in the bigs in 2013.

4. RHP Jeurys Familia - He will be 22-years old entering 2012 and he too, had some success at AA in his third season with the organization. Known for his blazing fastball, he's working on his off-speed stuff. Similar to Harvey, he should start next year at AA and work his way to AAA. Depending on how he develops, they may be more inclined to use him out of the bullpen initially, probably in 2013

5. SS Wilmer Flores - The 20-year old has been hyped for at least two years as the future stud SS for the Mets. He had a good enough 2011 at High A so his goal for 2012 will be to make it at Double-A. Barring an explosion somewhere along the line, if he progresses well enough, he could be on the big league radar by 2014.

6. RHP Zach Wheeler - The 21-year old made 22 starts combined in the SF and NY High-A minor league squads. The organization may not want to rush him straight up to Double-A to start 2012, so I'll assume the goal is for him to play his way there by the All-Star break. He could make it to the bigs deep into the 2013 season with 2014 being more likely.

Honorable Mentions: LHP Darin Gorski (24-year old had the best ERA in the organization out of Sinlge-A), OF Juan Lagares (22-year old tore through AA pitching in 38 games), RHP Colin McHugh (24-year old continued success in 2011, pitching well at AA despite not having electric stuff...is playing in the AFL right now), SS/2B Reese Havens (25-year old 2008 first round pick has not been able to stay healthy, but he hit well at Double-A in 2011), RHP Brad Holt (25-year old first round pick in 2008, has had subpar years the past two despite averaging almost 9 strikeouts per nine innings. Has made 33 starts at AA the past three years).

As you can see…help is not on the way anytime soon.

Didn't even mention 2011 first round pick OF Brandon Nimmo. He's a high school pick so figure if he can stay healthy and develop at all, he won't be at AA until 2013 at the earliest.

If even 4 of the prospects mentioned can someday become big league contributors, I'd be satisfied.

 

[Mogriffjr]

Couple things Empire

PROSPECTS
Flores has been playing 3B in the league he's playing in...so look out for a possible change to that position.

Josh Satin has been playing LF, just trying to add to an overall versatility to the big league club.

OF Juan Lagares continues to rake. He's a sleeper prospect to look out for this year.

 

[EmpireWF]

Mets telling beat writers today official changes to Citi...

The OF walls will be blue and the dimensions from Left to Right will be: 335-358-385-408-398-375-330.

 

[IamMedellin]

Mets telling beat writers today official changes to Citi...

The OF walls will be blue and the dimensions from Left to Right will be: 335-358-385-408-398-375-330.

blue walls Yes!!!

I wonder if David Wright will slap on a hardhat n help move the fences in...

 

[Warner2BruceTD]

Mets telling beat writers today official changes to Citi...

The OF walls will be blue and the dimensions from Left to Right will be: 335-358-385-408-398-375-330.

Does anyone have home team HR statistics vs. road team HR statistics for Citi Field?

 

[EmpireWF]

Does anyone have home team HR statistics vs. road team HR statistics for Citi Field?

Mets hit 50 HR last season at home.

Visitors hit about 59 HR at Citi in 2011.

http://www.hittrackeronline.com/detail.php?id=2011_1074&type=ballpark&sortm=h_team&sort=asc

From Adam Rubin...

Mets would have hit about 81 more homers over three years with these dimensions. Opponents 70. According to Sandy Alderson.

 

[LiquidLarry2GhostWF]

Next season is going to be another unbearable one.

No money to spend...and the money they are spending is tied up in scrubs and older injury prone players who have seen their best play.

Need to shed some damn salary.

 

[Mogriffjr]

Mets gonna let reyes hit the market...pretty much with no contract in hand from Mets...then pretty much see what's out there for him...rumors are Mets won't go past 5 years...it's not looking good

 

[EmpireWF]

Mets gonna let reyes hit the market...pretty much with no contract in hand from Mets...then pretty much see what's out there for him...rumors are Mets won't go past 5 years...it's not looking good

Even if Reyes has a string of 3-4 great, healthy seasons...there's no way I'd want them to offer him more than 5 years. It's way too much of a risk, especially considering they're already stuck with Bay's terrible contract. Point being, it's a huuuuge gamble.

They're not even in contention (on paper) in 2012 and likely 2013 so just move on and rebuild.

 

[EmpireWF]

This is pretty specific although I'll chalk it up to fantasy talk after hearing something generic (the Mets will listen to offers on Wright...or anyone for that matter).

http://www.nypost.com/p/sports/mets...EDNAME=&utm_source=dlvr.it&utm_medium=twitter

“We will listen on Wright for sure,” a Mets official told me during the week. “We know we are not going to win it all in 2012. We have to hope the Phillies get old and we are in position to take advantage of that in 2013-14, and we have to figure out ways to speed the process to get there.”

In other words, if the Mets could find the young, defensive-oriented center fielder they crave plus an arm or two in exchange for Wright, they will seriously consider it.

The team the Mets are focusing upon the most is the Angels, who they know have had interest in Wright previously and, in Mike Trout and Peter Bourjos, have two young center fielders. The Angels will not move Trout, who made his major league debut at 19 last year and is seen as a five-tool cornerstone to their future.

But Bourjos is a possibility. Two different talent evaluators told me they thought Bourjos was one of the three best defensive center fielders in the majors last year. Bourjos, who turns 25 in March, also hit .271 with 12 homers and 22 steals. If the Mets are able to get Bourjos and one or two arms from a group that includes Tyler Chatwood, Garrett Richards and John Hellweg, it could be enticing because there also would be a significant amount of saved money for 2012 — take your pick if that ends up in ownerships’ pockets or reinvested in payroll.

Dealing a popular established player such as Wright for relative unknowns would be a hard sell to an already embittered Mets fans base — especially if it coincides with losing Reyes this offseason, as well.

However, officials who have worked with Mets general manager Sandy Alderson depict a leader unafraid to make unpopular decisions if he believes it will be in the long-term good of the team. It is clear that Alderson is trying to accumulate as much high-level, cost-certain talent as possible to build around as a way to gain both long-term financial flexibility and the ability to make trades from a storehouse of strength.

----------

Also, Wally Backman will return to the organization and manage AAA Buffalo (after Single A Brooklyn in 2010 and Double A Binghamton last year).

He had a chance to join Davey Johnson in Washington but Davey told him he should stay with the Mets as it was 'in his best interests.'

http://www.northjersey.com/columnists/Klapisch_Backman_shows_loyalty_to_Mets.html

 

[EmpireWF]

RHP Robert Carson, RHP Jeurys Familia, SS Wilmer Flores, 2B Reese Havens, OF Juan Lagares, OF Kirk Nieuwenhuis and OF Cesar Puello added to the 40-man roster.

 

[EmpireWF]

Mets signed RP Jon Rauch to a 1-year deal.

They signed RP Frank Francisco to a 2-year, $12 million deal.

They traded CF Angel Pagan to the Giants for CF Andres Torres and RP Ramon Ramirez.

 

[Warner2BruceTD]

Mets did great today. Ramon Ramirez is one of the most underrated players in baseball.

 

[ThomasTomasz]

I too really like what they did today. They replaced Angel Pagan with a cheaper clone, as Andres Torres is older but has a similar game. Then, picked up three great arms for the bullpen, which will be needed to help the rotation, and Rauch will have some value in July as well.

 

[Sigona]

Joelsherman1 Joel Sherman
#Mets have told teams will talk anyone but Wright and very active, working hard to get least 1 more trade done, maybe here (cont)

Joelsherman1 Joel Sherman
Fascinating is #Mets r talking with suitors seriously about Ike Davis. #Rangers, #Pirates need 1B. Tex in particular is known to like Ike

BLOWIN' UP THE PLACE!

 

[EmpireWF]

The Davis rumor is false according to another beat writer.

They are shopping Niese though.

 

[Sigona]

They should package Niese/Pelfrey. Might as well.

 

[Mogriffjr]

they were just putting feelers out there for Niese...I'm really anticipating a big year for Niese coming up.

 

[Youk]

I'm hoping for a great first half by David Wright so his value increases. He's a goner by the trade deadline, if there's at least a mediocre market out there.

 

[EmpireWF]

Rankings of the top 20 prospects in the Mets system courtesy of...

http://www.minorleagueball.com/2011/12/27/2664351/new-york-mets-top-20-prospects-for-2012

QUICK PRIMER ON GRADE MEANINGS:

Grade A prospects are the elite. They have a good chance of becoming stars or superstars. Almost all Grade A prospects develop into major league regulars, if injuries or other problems don't intervene. Note that is a major "if" in some cases.

Grade B prospects have a good chance to enjoy successful careers. Some will develop into stars, some will not. Most end up spending several years in the majors, at the very least in a marginal role.

Grade C prospects are the most common type. These are guys who have something positive going for them, but who may have a question mark or three, or who are just too far away from the majors to get an accurate feel for. A few Grade C guys, especially at the lower levels, do develop into stars. Many end up as role players or bench guys. Some don't make it at all.

A major point to remember is that grades for pitchers do NOT correspond directly to grades for hitters. Many Grade A pitching prospects fail to develop, often due to injuries. Some Grade C pitching prospects turn out much better than expected.

Also note that there is diversity within each category. I'm a tough grader; Grade C+ is actually good praise coming from me, and some C+ prospects turn out very well indeed.

Finally, keep in mind that all grades are shorthand. You have to read the full comment in the book for my full opinion about a player, the letter grade only tells you so much. A Grade C prospect in rookie ball could end up being very impressive, while a Grade C prospect in Triple-A is likely just a future role player.

1) Matt Harvey, RHP, Grade B+: He can be a number two starter and someone to build around. Some evaluators see him more as a closer if his changeup remains erratic, but I'm cutting him some slack on that issue and am optimistic.

2) Zack Wheeler, RHP, Grade B+: This is actually more like Harvey -A and Wheeler 1-B. They are very close but Harvey is closer to being ready. Like Harvey, I see Wheeler as a future number two starter and staff anchor. He made big strides with his control last year. Like Harvey his changeup needs more work, but I'm optimistic about him given the improvements he's already made.

3) Jeurys Familia, RHP, Grade B: Control still needs work, but took a major step forward towards harnessing his stuff. Could be a number three starter, perhaps more with additional changeup refinement. Could also end up as a fine closer.

4) Brandon Nimmo, OF, Grade B: Borderline B-. One of my favorite players from the 2011 draft. Strong tools, skills are more refined than you think given his Wyoming background. There's some risk here but lots of upside too.

5) Cesar Puello, OF, Grade B-: Tough to grade and I'm not really comfortable with this guy. Tools are very impressive and he started tapping into his power. However his strike zone judgment slipped badly, with a dramatic reduction in his walk rate and increase in strikeouts. Power improvement was cancelled out by loss of OBP, and Double-A pitchers will easily exploit his over-aggressiveness. However, many scouts really like him and think he's going to break through, plus he was just 20 last year. Upside is very high but risk of failure is quite high as well.

6) Kirk Nieuwenhuis, OF, Grade B-: Positives here are solid tools, high walk rate, moderate power (secondary average skills). Weaknesses include high strikeout rate and inability to hit left-handed pitching. I've seen him compared to Brett Jackson but Jackson is a better athlete and younger. Kirk looks like a very solid platoon player/fourth outfielder to me. Doesn't have Puello's ceiling but a much higher floor. I've gone back and forth about 10 times between Kirk and Cesar in the 5/6 spots.

7) Jenrry Mejia, RHP, Grade B-: Waiting on Tommy John recovery at this point. I've liked him for awhile but he was handled badly by previous administration and it is still unclear if he's a starter or reliever going forward.

8) Reese Havens, 2B, Grade B-: Borderline C+. I like his power/patience combination and ability to handle second base, but his health care expenses have helped bankrupt the organization. If he manages to avoid injuries he can be a .260 hitter with 15 homers and a fine OBP.

9) Wilmer Flores, 3B-SS, Grade B-: Borderline C+. Still very young at age 20. Switch over to third base increases pressure on his bat. Will he develop sufficient power for that position? He keeps his strikeout rate low but power hasn't blossomed as Mets hoped, granted he was promoted aggressively. Stock is starting to sag but it isn't too late yet.

10) Cory Mazzoni, RHP, Grade C+: Borderline B-: North Carolina State product has sound combination of solid stuff and command. I don't think he got as much attention as he deserved in pitching-rich 2011 draft class and I expect good things from him.

11) Michael Fulmer, RHP, Grade C+: Live-armed Oklahoma high school kid, upside of a number two or three starter, but rather raw. Ceiling higher than Mazzoni but risk of failure is higher as well.

12) Jordan Valdespin, 2B-SS, Grade C+: Will probably rank higher on other lists. Tools and athleticism stand out, developed more power this year, but high-maintenance mercurial personality and sloppy strike zone judgment make me wary that he'll fulfill his potential.

13) Phillip Evans, 2B-SS, Grade C+: Overslot $650,000 bonus for 15th round pick could end up being a bargain if Evans develops as I expect...above-average hitter with some pop and solid glovework at second. Excellent makeup. Need more data, could be much higher next year.

14) Cory Vaughn, OF, Grade C+: Slump in High-A could be related to painful heel injury. I like his tools and he's flashed the skills to make them meaningful. Stock could be considerably higher next year. . .or considerably lower.

15) Darin Gorski, LHP, Grade C+: Excellent statistics in High-A Florida State League (2.08 ERA, 140/29 K/BB) generated by superior command of average fastball and off-speed stuff, refined changeup. Needs to duplicate this in Double-A.

16) Collin McHugh, RHP, Grade C+: McHugh broke out with impressive Double-A season. Average velocity for right-hander but works lower part of the strike zone well, nice assortment of secondary pitches, makeup well-regarded. Could be a fifth starter or long reliever.

17) Domingo Tapia, RHP, Grade C+: Earned some headlines with 99 MPH fastball but struck out just 30 in 50 innings in Appalachian League. High ceiling but needs a lot of work on his secondary pitches.

18) Akeel Morris, RHP, Grade C+: Teammate of Tapia at Kingsport, doesn't throw quite as hard, "just" in the low-to-mid-90s, but secondary stuff is in better shape. Fanned 61 in 51 innings and gave up just 30 hits, but wobbly command led to 38 walks. High ceiling.

19) Danny Muno, SS, Grade C+: Senior out of Fresno State led New York-Penn League in OBP, impressed observers with steady play and makeup. May end up as a utility player but a good one, could get beyond that if he keeps hitting at higher levels.

20) Juan Lagares, OF, Grade C+: Quick bat, improved plate discipline from abysmally awful to merely poor and hit .349/.383/.500 as a result between High-A and Double-A. This was at least partially driven by unsustainable BABIP gains, and I want to see more before buying into him.

21) Logan Verrett, RHP, Grade C+: College pitcher out of Baylor has yet to make pro debut. I saw him pitch in college and I think he has the stuff and command to be a number four starter.

OTHERS: Robert Carson, LHP; Darrell Ceciliani, OF; Albert Cordero, C; Matt den Dekker, OF; Josh Edgin, LHP; Erik Goeddel, RHP; Gilbert Gomez, OF; Chase Huchingson, LHP; Jack Leathersich, LHP; Zach Lutz, 3B; Brad Marquez, OF; Jefry Marte, 3B; Rafael Montero, RHP; Greg Peavey, RHP; Tyler Pill, RHP; Aderlin Rodriguez, 3B; Armando Rodriguez, RHP; Josh Satin, UT; Chris Schwinden, RHP; Juan Urbina, LHP; Taylor Whitenton, RHP.

The Mets farm system has improved and I don't think it gets enough respect. There are some problems that have to be addressed, but they have some strengths as well. The organization is still suffering hangover from the way prospects were managed in the previous administration, but things are looking up.

The entire second half of this list is very fluid. You could make a case to rank Juan Lagares, number 20, as high as 11 or 12. Even spots five through 10 are difficult to rank. How do you weight injury guys like Mejia or Havens in comparison to high-risk-high-upside tools guys like Puello and Flores? It is all a balancing act and every analyst is going to come to a different conclusion.

I like the pitching. Harvey, Wheeler, and Familia are three hard-throwing right-handers with the ability to be staff anchors. The first two aren't far off the A- category, and Familia is a fine prospect in his own right. It may be tempting to rush Harvey and Familia to the majors sometime in 2012, but I think both will be better-positioned to help in 2013. Mejia is something of a forgotten man but I liked him a lot before he got hurt, despite the ridiculous way he was handled in '10.

There are more right-handed arms coming up behind them. Mazzoni, Fulmer, and Verrett from the 2011 draft bring a nice variety of upside and command. Tapia and Morris from Kingsport have very live arms. There are several average-stuff-inning-eater types with McHugh and Chris Schwinden possibly contributing in '12. Whitenton is interesting too but we need to see him at higher levels. Efforts of the previous administration to find talent at smaller colleges didn't bring in any stars, but you need organization arms too and sometimes those guys become real prospects, which a few have in this case.

Left-hander Juan Urbina in the C-category is highly-projectable and picked up velocity this year, although this wasn't reflected in his performance. Darin Gorski was excellent at St. Lucie but we need to see if he can avoid being the next Mark Cohoon. Edgin, Huchingson, and Leatherisch all have southpaw bullpen potential.

Hitting is in tougher condition than the pitching. There are several very high upside players. There is some "shiny new toy" hope regarding Nimmo, but while his selection has been questioned by some, I like him. Products of the Latin American program like Puello, Flores, Valdespin (and Aderlin Rodriguez and Gilbert Gomez) have high upside but have yet to fulfill their potential, with strike zone issues being a persistent theme. Gomez had a nice run at St. Lucie but it was 75 at-bat sample and out of context with the rest of his career. I want to see more.