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NCAA Basketball Tournament forecasting

Senser81

VSN Poster of the Year
Now that football is over with, I've been watching a lot more college basketball and trying to determine who will do well in the NCAA Tournament. It seems that other than BYU and San Diego State, we've heard nothing from the mid-major schools this year. Most of the major conferences have only a few decent teams, so I would expect the mid-major teams to do well in the tournament....but which mid-major teams? The usual Butler and Gonzaga teams are mediocre this year, and the entire Missouri Valley Conference is a hodgepodge.

Anyway, here is how I see things as of now...

#1 seeds: Duke, Pitt, Ohio State, and Kansas/Texas Big12 winner

This is a pretty weak field for #1 seeds. I think Duke is much softer than they were last year, and Pitt is limited offensively and defensively, so I don't think either team makes it past the 2nd round. If Texas gets a 1 seed, then they probably don't make it past the 2nd round, either, because their coach is a complete moron and most likely the product of incest (Rick Barnes).

Teams that are hot: UCLA and Texas A&M have quietly put together nice records. St. John's actually presses on defense and has been really tough. Louisville has also done well in the Big East.

Teams that are cold: UConn is falling apart. Georgetown might be in trouble due to injury. Kentucky has become a joke. Washington and West Virginia have underachieved all year.

Teams I can't figure out: Baylor looks like it should dominate, but they are inconsistent. Virginia Tech is their usual athletic selves, but they look terrible at times and its strange how they can't contend in a very weak ACC. Syracuse is another team that seems to have all the pieces, but they fall apart every few games.

Big10 factor: I think Purdue, Wisconsin, and Ohio State will do well in the NCAA's. If you remember, the Big10 actually won their ACC/Big10 challenge this year, which is a good sign. But outside of those 3 teams, their is a huge drop off in talent to the Illinois and Michigan State level.
 
Some CAA mid-majors that I like are:
Old Dominion - IMO not as good as last year
VCU - although they've been falling apart as of late
George Mason

I'm not sure all three will make it though....I see two of them making it...ODU and George Mason.

Also, Cleveland State with Norris Cole who will more than likely be the best player on the court against whoever they play could be dangerous. Come tournament time every year there is that player from a mid-major that plays himself into becoming a star and IMO that kid this year is going to be Norris Cole.
 
Norris Cole is a fucking stud. He destroyed us (RMU) earlier this season.

Yeah, I watched him destroy Old Dominion. I know the PG from ODU and he told me that kid is unreal to guard. I think he had like 21 points at halftime and for the game was like 8-12 from 3.....it wasn't until ODU switched to a 3-2 defense did that actually slow him down a bit.
 
Sleepers to keep an eye on:

George Mason (will be popular considering 06' run, but they are quietly a better team this year)
Oakland (MI)
Murray State
Utah State
Missouri State
Belmont
Coastal Carolina
 
Long Island might scare a #2 seed a la RMU last year if they get through the NEC tournament. I believe they have the most road wins in the nation right now.
 
Sleepers to keep an eye on:

George Mason (will be popular considering 06' run, but they are quietly a better team this year)
Oakland (MI)
Murray State
Utah State
Missouri State
Belmont
Coastal Carolina

Georgetown ran both of those teams off the floor earlier this year. In fact, I think that's the last time Coastal Carolina lost a game.

To be fair, the big samoan kid on Utah St was in foul trouble.

But Coastal Carolina has no size, so i'd be careful with them as a sleeper depending on matchup.
 
bank on UK going out in the second round unless they get a much better seed than im expecting :(
 
call me crazy my number one seeds would be Duke, Kansas, Ohio State, and a toss up between Pitt if they win the Big East and BYU if they win out
 
Sleepers to keep an eye on:

George Mason (will be popular considering 06' run, but they are quietly a better team this year)
Oakland (MI)
Murray State
Utah State
Missouri State
Belmont
Coastal Carolina

Oakland has done well the past couple years, and Murray State is usually good for an upset. IIRC, Utah State was left out of the tournament last year even though they had a good record.
 
Kansas State now looks like the team they were supposed to be going into the year. They could be dangerous.
 
I'm going to a Coastal Carolina game tonight. I'll give you my professional analysis after i leave the arena that holds 999 people.

 
lol
 
Georgetown ran both of those teams off the floor earlier this year. In fact, I think that's the last time Coastal Carolina lost a game.

To be fair, the big samoan kid on Utah St was in foul trouble.

But Coastal Carolina has no size, so i'd be careful with them as a sleeper depending on matchup.
Eh.. While true, I don't like to rely on one game as a barometer for whether or not a team is a sleeper. In the tournament all it takes for an upset is for one of these smaller teams to have a great day and the other team to be off. Which can very well happen in any matchup. Hell Georgetown was on fire last year entering the tourney and Ohio ran them off the floor.

Coastal Carolina is going to be a thorn in the ass for whoever draws them in Round 1. Ditto Utah State, assuming they don't shit the bed in the WAC tourney again.
 
Put Villanova on that list too. They got smoked by the Irish last night.

Villanova has been bad every time I've seen them play this year. They are a total slop team...they don't really do anything on offense or defense. They can't shoot, they can't score inside. They don't press. They just try to run into people and get to the free-throw line.
 
Villanova is cursed because they got away with stealing a win in the NCAA tournament last year. The basketball gods decided to have their fans believers early in the season, then last year's RMU coach Mike Rice and Rutgers brought his team back from an insane deficit with like a minute to go to upset them. Since then, they've sucked.

They sold their basketball soul for one win over a #15 seed. :shifty:
 
Villanova is cursed because they got away with stealing a win in the NCAA tournament last year. The basketball gods decided to have their fans believers early in the season, then last year's RMU coach Mike Rice and Rutgers brought his team back from an insane deficit with like a minute to go to upset them. Since then, they've sucked.

They sold their basketball soul for one win over a #15 seed. :shifty:

That game last year was awful to watch. Villanova shot 40 free throws! Scottie Reynolds shot 2 of 15 from the field, but shot 16 free throws! RMU was called for 31 fouls!!
 
Some CAA mid-majors that I like are:
Old Dominion - IMO not as good as last year
VCU - although they've been falling apart as of late
George Mason

I'm not sure all three will make it though....I see two of them making it...ODU and George Mason.

Also, Cleveland State with Norris Cole who will more than likely be the best player on the court against whoever they play could be dangerous. Come tournament time every year there is that player from a mid-major that plays himself into becoming a star and IMO that kid this year is going to be Norris Cole.

Problem with Cleveland St is that they collapsed in conference and have no OOC wins to speak of. They probably need to win the Horizion League tourney at this point and they lost out on a bye with Butler and Milwaukee thanks to a tiebreaker.

I like VCU, George Mason, Hofstra (Jenkins could drop 30 on any tourney team), Oakland, Belmont, College of Charleston as sleepers.
 
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