Oust picked up Sean Marshall in Fantasy...

[Goober]

Ken Rosenthal ‏ @Ken_Rosenthal


Sources: Madson needs Tommy John surgery, out for season. Marshall likely to close, Chapman back to bullpen. #Reds #MLB

 

[Rudi]

Damn that fucking blows.

 

[Chrispy]

Didn't Madson only sign a one year deal too? Sucks for him

 

[Obst]

Ruben Amaro can see the future (cue the Howard contract jokes)

 

[Warner2BruceTD]

At least it happened before the season. My theory has always been, in any sport, that if it happens before the season starts, it's like you never had the player to begin with. Roles have yet to be established, nobody is in a comfort zone yet, etc.

The bright side, is if Marshall ends up being an effective closer, and to me there is no reason he shouldn't be able to (the plan was to use him to close anyway before Madson fell into their laps), the extension he signed is very cheap for a closer.

This injury gets Dusty off the hook on making a tough decision on Chapman/Bailey, because the Reds really have no choice but to move Chapman back to the bullpen to replace Marshall in the LH setup role. Reds fans saying Chapman should go to AAA to start are nuts. I'd rather have that arm helping the big league team, he can start when the team has that need.

 

[Goober]

At least it happened before the season. My theory has always been, in any sport, that if it happens before the season starts, it's like you never had the player to begin with. Roles have yet to be established, nobody is in a comfort zone yet, etc.

The bright side, is if Marshall ends up being an effective closer, and to me there is no reason he shouldn't be able to (the plan was to use him to close anyway before Madson fell into their laps), the extension he signed is very cheap for a closer.

This injury gets Dusty off the hook on making a tough decision on Chapman/Bailey, because the Reds really have no choice but to move Chapman back to the bullpen to replace Marshall in the LH setup role. Reds fans saying Chapman should go to AAA to start are nuts. I'd rather have that arm helping the big league team, he can start when the team has that need.

How has Chapman's velocity and control looked as he's been stretched out this spring?

 

[Warner2BruceTD]

How has Chapman's velocity and control looked as he's been stretched out this spring?

He's looked very good, particularly his control. Hardly any walks.

He's throwing a splitter now to go with the fastball and slider. Still no sign of the mysterious changup in game action, but somebody caught him on a cell phone vid throwing it in live BP to camp body Dennis Phipps, to hoots and hollers from the other pitchers.

I will be livid if he's optioned to Louisville now. He needs to contribute, if that means the bullpen, so be it.

 

[Goober]

He's looked very good, particularly his control. Hardly any walks.

He's throwing a splitter now to go with the fastball and slider. Still no sign of the mysterious changup in game action, but somebody caught him on a cell phone vid throwing it in live BP to camp body Dennis Phipps, to hoots and hollers from the other pitchers.

I will be livid if he's optioned to Louisville now. He needs to contribute, if that means the bullpen, so be it.

The Reds have to have some warm bodies capable of contributing in the bull pen though, no? If Chapman, has the stamina and control to last in the rotation, he's easily their third best starter, with the potential to be #1. They're a better team with him starting.

Can Arroyo opt out of his contract if he's optioned to AAA? I don't remember the rules. I'd sent him to Louisville, no way anyone picks him up.

 

[Warner2BruceTD]

The Reds have to have some warm bodies capable of contributing in the bull pen though, no? If Chapman, has the stamina and control to last in the rotation, he's easily their third best starter, with the potential to be #1. They're a better team with him starting.

Can Arroyo opt out of his contract if he's optioned to AAA? I don't remember the rules. I'd sent him to Louisville, no way anyone picks him up.

Arroyo isn't going anywhere. He won't go to AAA and they aren't going to eat the money.

Bray would be the only lefty (aside from Marshall) if Chapman starts. And he's hurt too and might start the year on the DL. Then you are talking camp bodies and nothing prospects after that from the left side. None of those guys have impressed anybody this spring.

Now there is talk Chapman might close.

Honestly, I dont care what they do with him, as long as it's not in Louisville. He needs to be on the team now. I was ok with working in slowly at Louisville before the Madson injury, but not now. With the uncertain status of Phillips & Votto, they have to make a run this year and next.

 

[Goober]

Arroyo isn't going anywhere. He won't go to AAA and they aren't going to eat the money.

Bray would be the only lefty (aside from Marshall) if Chapman starts. And he's hurt too and might start the year on the DL. Then you are talking camp bodies and nothing prospects after that from the left side. None of those guys have impressed anybody this spring.

Now there is talk Chapman might close.

Honestly, I dont care what they do with him, as long as it's not in Louisville. He needs to be on the team now. I was ok with working in slowly at Louisville before the Madson injury, but not now. With the uncertain status of Phillips & Votto, they have to make a run this year and next.

If they want to win now, they need to ship Arroyo's bum ass out, and start Chapman. He could be worth four or five wins in the rotation. Much better then Arroyo's -1.3 WAR last year, or the 1.5 wins you'll get from Bailey or Leake. And out of the pen Chapman isn't nearly as valuable.

I think you're overstating the need for lefthanders out of the bullpen too. The NL Central doesn't even have a left handed bat you need to fear in it. The Brewers proved last year you can win the division without a lefty in the pen. Besides that Bray's injure isn't even that extensive.

 

[Warner2BruceTD]

If they want to win now, they need to ship Arroyo's bum ass out, and start Chapman. He could be worth four or five wins in the rotation. Much better then Arroyo's -1.3 WAR last year, or the 1.5 wins you'll get from Bailey or Leake. And out of the pen Chapman isn't nearly as valuable.

I think you're overstating the need for lefthanders out of the bullpen too. The NL Central doesn't even have a left handed bat you need to fear in it. The Brewers proved last year you can win the division without a lefty in the pen. Besides that Bray's injure isn't even that extensive.

I'm sure if they had a trading partner they would move Arroyo in a nano second. There is no way they are eating that contract. Not a chance, so there is no point even discussing the possibility. He is owed $23MM for the next two years, plus if he is traded or released they owe him another $15MM in deferred money, so i'm not even sure they would trade him even if somebody wanted him in some AJ Burnett scenario.

They are going to use him in the back end of the rotation and hope the back injury and the mono from last year was the problem. His velocity is back up to 89-90. Last year he was barely cracking 85 and probably should have been on the DL to start the year, but Cueto and Bailey were hurt so he pushed through. He was never right. If he can split the difference between his 2010 and his 2011, he can be be average and that will be fine assuming the offense is as good as we think it will be.

The other four guys are locked into the rotation. Bailey has no options and is supposedly not suited for bullpen work (takes too long to warm up). They think Leake can be very, very good.

So to me, if the real options are bullpen on the Reds or rotation in Louisville, I want Chapman on the team. If this was a video game you send Arroyo packing, roll the dice with Josh Judy as your second lefty in the pen, and away you go. In the real world, Arroyo is pitching every fifth day, even the Yankees wouldn't swallow that deal and cut ties.

 

[Warner2BruceTD]

Chapman this spring (and this is a rare case of numbers that matter, because he's pitching for a rotation slot and to prove he can go 8 innings): 1-0, 1.50 ERA, 12 K, 2 BB

There is talk now that Jeff Francis has pitched his way onto the team, and will head to the bullpen as the second lefty if Chapman goes to the rotation.

Nobody knows what would happen to Bailey, who is out of options and presumably can not pitch from the bullpen effectively.

EDIT: Francis line: 2.77, 0 BB, 8 K's

 

[Goober]

I'm sure if they had a trading partner they would move Arroyo in a nano second. There is no way they are eating that contract. Not a chance, so there is no point even discussing the possibility. He is owed $23MM for the next two years, plus if he is traded or released they owe him another $15MM in deferred money, so i'm not even sure they would trade him even if somebody wanted him in some AJ Burnett scenario.

They are going to use him in the back end of the rotation and hope the back injury and the mono from last year was the problem. His velocity is back up to 89-90. Last year he was barely cracking 85 and probably should have been on the DL to start the year, but Cueto and Bailey were hurt so he pushed through. He was never right. If he can split the difference between his 2010 and his 2011, he can be be average and that will be fine assuming the offense is as good as we think it will be.

The other four guys are locked into the rotation. Bailey has no options and is supposedly not suited for bullpen work (takes too long to warm up). They think Leake can be very, very good.

So to me, if the real options are bullpen on the Reds or rotation in Louisville, I want Chapman on the team. If this was a video game you send Arroyo packing, roll the dice with Josh Judy as your second lefty in the pen, and away you go. In the real world, Arroyo is pitching every fifth day, even the Yankees wouldn't swallow that deal and cut ties.

I understand a small market teams reluctance to give up on a bad contract, after going through the Jeff Suppan fiasco in Milwaukee. It may hurt to piss away that money, but the team is better off cutting their losses, then to continue to let the player's bad performance hurt the team. Arroyo's average velocity was only down 1 mph from 2010 last year. But he is getting old, I wouldn't be optimistic that he can add positive value to the team.

And for the record, AJ Burnett and Arroyos' talent levels aren't even comparable.

 

[Warner2BruceTD]

I understand a small market teams reluctance to give up on a bad contract, after going through the Jeff Suppan fiasco in Milwaukee. It may hurt to piss away that money, but the team is better off cutting their losses, then to continue to let the player's bad performance hurt the team. Arroyo's average velocity was only down 1 mph from 2010 last year. But he is getting old, I wouldn't be optimistic that he can add positive value to the team.

And for the record, AJ Burnett and Arroyos' talent levels aren't even comparable.

Considering both guys are mid 30's I would say talent level and ceiling are no longer relevant. When you look at the situations both were in before this season coming off horrendous years, their contracts, and the shockingly similar career numbers, I felt it was a good comparison, but it's a moot point, because he's not getting traded and they aren't cutting him.

If Chapman starts, and he might, it will be Bailey as the odd man out. The Reds know it, they just have no idea what to do with Bailey.

 

[Goober]

Considering both guys are mid 30's I would say talent level and ceiling are no longer relevant. When you look at the situations both were in before this season coming off horrendous years, their contracts, and the shockingly similar career numbers, I felt it was a good comparison, but it's a moot point, because he's not getting traded and they aren't cutting him.

If Chapman starts, and he might, it will be Bailey as the odd man out. The Reds know it, they just have no idea what to do with Bailey.

Over their careers Burnett has struck out 2.5 more batters per nine innings, and walked one more; and his FIP is half a run better. Burnett also gets a lot more groundballs, but yet gives up a larger percentage of home runs. Other then age, I wouldn't say they're comparable at all.

 

[Warner2BruceTD]

Over their careers Burnett has struck out 2.5 more batters per nine innings, and walked one more; and his FIP is half a run better. Burnett also gets a lot more groundballs, but yet gives up a larger percentage of home runs. Other then age, I wouldn't say they're comparable at all.

oh boy, FIP.

Burnett: 121-111 W/L, 4.10 ERA, 1.332 WHIP, 105 ERA+, 1960 IP, 1791 K, 826 BB

Arroyo: 122-105 W/L, 4.28 ERA, 1.316 WHIP, 104 ERA+, 1874 IP, 1226 K, 554 BB

Both guys entering age 35 season, Burnett 309 GS, Arroyo 291 GS.

I mean, you would be hard pressed to find two more identical careers. They are two vastly different types of pitchers, but the results are undeniably similar.

Burnett strikes out more batters, Arroyo walks less batters. Aside from that, you can talk about ground ball rates or FIP alll you want, but at the end of the day you have two guys who allow almost an identical amount of baserunners and earned runs, over a almost identical workload, over the same years in the same era, and are nearly identical against the rest of their respective leagues in adjusted ERA.

I dont even know what the point is here, other than the Reds aren't trading Arroyo, because even if they found a willing partner, they aren't paying the $15MM deferred cash.

 

[Rudi]

Adding salt to the wound, Chapman went 5 innings tonight, striking out 5, walking 1 without allowing a run.

 

[Villain]

Do you think the Reds pick up the team option after a successful surgery or do you think they'll let him go and someone will get a cheap Ryan Madson next year? (2nd season is $11MM or $2.5MM buyout). He's guaranteed $8.5MM to never throw a pitch for the Reds.

 

[FirstTimer]

FML with my pitching staff already.

Carp down for months, Chapman no idea where he will be.

mg:

 

[FirstTimer]

Oh yeah..and Chipper Jones.