Here's the rankings for the top 25-players under 25...
I'll take back-to-back AFC Championship games with a QB under 25 rather than a #1 ranking in some ESPN ranking sheet.
25. David Nelson, WR, Buffalo Bills
Our last cut in turning the Top 26 into a Top 25 last year was WR Steve Johnson of the Bills; while Johnson was best-known for his drop against the Steelers, he had quite the breakout season. We're not going to make the same mistake twice. While the Bills aren't exactly known for having an explosive passing game, Nelson could help make things easier for Johnson and Lee Evans by serving as an effective option out of the slot. Nelson finished his season with touchdowns in three straight games before suffering a season-ending rib injury against the Patriots. With the Bills likely to spend another season trailing in most of their games, Nelson should see a lot of time in three-wide sets.
24. Stevenson Sylvester, LB, Pittsburgh Steelers
The Steelers don't generally put rookies right into the lineup, at least on defense. They give players one or two years on special teams or in part-time roles while they can learn how the system works. Despite playing mostly special teams last year, this 2010 fifth-round pick from Utah has been set up as the heir apparent to 36-year-old inside linebacker James Farrior. Sylvester is an aggressive, high-motor player, although he dropped in the draft because scouts felt he was somewhat undersized (then again, 6-foot-2, 231 pounds is not much different from Lawrence Timmons). Pittsburgh linebackers coach Keith Butler has praised Sylvester's feel for blitzes, an important part of playing inside linebacker in coordinator Dick LeBeau's defense.
23. Daniel Te'o-Nesheim, DE, Philadelphia Eagles
A SackSEER favorite, Te'o-Nesheim spent most of his rookie year on special teams. In the meaningless Week 17 game, though, the Eagles gave him a start at defensive end and let him just rush Stephen McGee to his heart's content. He finished the game with a sack and a quarterback hurry while holding up effectively against the run. He'll be in the rotation at defensive end this year for legendary defensive line coach Jim Washburn. The hope is that Washburn can do for Te'o-Nesheim what he did for another high-motor defensive end: Kyle Vanden Bosch.
22. Donald Butler, LB, San Diego Chargers
Butler is the only player on this list yet to take an NFL snap, owing to a torn Achilles tendon that ended his rookie year before it started. Heading into last year, the third-round pick was talked about as a potential starter at inside linebacker, which has been a troublesome position for the Chargers to fill over the past few seasons. The team could use his David Harris-style play against the run, and while the Achilles tear might slow him down at the beginning of the season, don't be surprised if he's starting by the end of the year.
21. Blair White, WR, Indianapolis Colts
Let's make this clear: White isn't a great player. He's a decent wide receiver with good size who happens to be in the best offense for a player with his skill set. And while he's currently fifth on the depth chart at wideout, he's behind two players (Austin Collie and Anthony Gonzalez) with severe injury issues, and a third guy (Pierre Garcon) who can be wildly inconsistent from play to play. In other words, if everything goes right, White could carve out a very meaningful role in one of the league's best passing attacks. And the odds of things going right for him are higher than they are for any other fifth wideout in football.
20. Doug Legursky, OL, Pittsburgh Steelers
One of the many Steelers reserves to step in on the offensive line during the regular season, Legursky was thrust into the national spotlight as the replacement for the injured Maurkice Pouncey in Super Bowl XLV. Despite expectations that he would struggle mightily against the Packers' frequently dominant front three, Legursky had a solid day in the biggest game of his career. At the very least, he's a versatile reserve with steel nerves. He could compete for a starting spot at guard in training camp this season.
19. Ed Dickson, TE, Baltimore Ravens
With Todd Heap's career as a starter winding down, the Ravens drafted Dickson and Dennis Pitta in 2010, hoping that one of them would develop into Heap's replacement. So far, Dickson looks like the better of the two, having stepped into the starting role while Heap missed time with an ankle injury at the end of last season. Dickson is a naturally a speedy tight end with good hands that remains a project as a blocker. Expect his role in the passing game to increase in 2011, with the hopes that he'll take over as the starter in 2012.
18. Desmond Bryant, DT, Oakland Raiders
A Harvard graduate playing for the Raiders is, on its face, comical. Getting past the fish-out-of-water jokes might be tough, but Bryant has emerged as a valuable rotation player on one of the league's best defensive lines. Twenty-one tackles don't seem all that impressive, but Bryant showed an impressive ability to penetrate and make plays in the backfield, including six defeats and 2.5 sacks.
17. Chris Ivory, RB, New Orleans Saints
After injuries to Pierre Thomas and Reggie Bush, the Saints were forced to hand over the reins of their running game to Ivory, an undrafted free agent out of Tiffin University. Ivory promptly produced a 59 percent success rate, the best of any back in football, on his 137 carries. Although he offered nothing as a receiver and wasn't a great blocker, his contributions as a runner for the league-minimum salary were nothing short of extraordinary. He needs to improve on the small stuff and work on holding onto the ball (35 touches per fumble just won't cut it), but he should be part of an above-average rotation at halfback starting now.
16. Erik Walden, LB, Green Bay Packers
Walden wasn't even the first afterthought to show up at linebacker for the Packers; Frank Zombo won a roster spot in training camp and then became a starter, only to go down with a knee injury in Week 14 that kept him out until the Super Bowl. That gave Walden, a veteran of four NFL teams in two years, a spot in the starting lineup. All Walden did was win Defensive Player of the Week in the season-ending win over the Bears, thanks to a three-sack performance. He served as an effective spy in the Packers' nickel package, and if he doesn't make the team this year, he'll bounce back somewhere as a linebacker specializing in pass defense.
15. James Starks, RB, Green Bay Packers
A speed score favorite (106.3) taken in the sixth round of the 2010 draft, Starks spent most of the year as a rumor tossed around by Packers fans desirous of an effective replacement for the injured Ryan Grant. And while his eventual run as the starter during Week 17 and the playoffs was a success owing partly to huge carry totals and middling run defenses, he did show the potential to be an eventual starter at the pro level. In 2011, he should be part of a one-two combination with Grant, although he could lose snaps to nominal third back Brandon Jackson because of the latter's ability as a pass-blocker.
14. Emmanuel Sanders, WR, Pittsburgh Steelers
Sanders inherited the slot receiver role vacated by Mike Wallace before the season, impressed coaches with his blocking ability during camp, and then emerged as a valuable part of the team's three-wideout sets during the second half of the season. Forty-five of his 50 targets came after Week 9, and he had just one target all year in a two-wideout set. He didn't show the promise Wallace did as a rookie, but Sanders is on pace to become the No. 2 two wideout behind him once Hines Ward bows out.
13. Andre Roberts, WR, Arizona Cardinals
The Cardinals' coaching staff became more and more enamored with this third-round pick as the season went on; by the final two weeks, he was basically playing ahead of starter Steve Breaston. With Breaston gone, Roberts' speed, athleticism and health should give him the No. 2 receiver job ahead of Early Doucet. His poor rookie DVOA rating of minus-39.7 percent can be blamed in large part on last year's awful quarterback situation. Ten of the 25 incomplete passes to Roberts were marked by our game charters as "overthrown," including a quick hitch pass behind the line of scrimmage.
12. Derek Hardman, OL, Tampa Bay Buccaneers
It's hard enough to be a rookie in the NFL. For Hardman, it was harder than most. After being cut in training camp and falling to the practice squad, he was added to the active roster during the season once injuries started to beset the Bucs. After guard Davin Joseph went down with a foot injury, Hardman was placed into the lineup to replace him. One problem: As a college tackle, he had never played guard before. Hardman ended up doing a fine job in Joseph's stead, and he'll be in the mix for a starting job somewhere along the line next season.
11. Matt Flynn, QB, Green Bay Packers
Sure, he got to play with some of the best offensive talent in football during that narrow loss to the Patriots, but remember: He was replacing Aaron Rodgers. A guy who could do a reasonable impression of Rodgers in most weeks would be worth a lot of money, and while he struggled in relief of Rodgers against the Detroit Lions, Flynn showed more poise than anyone could have expected against the Patriots before that ugly final drive. Even if he doesn't take another snap for the Packers, he'll end up competing for a starting job somewhere down the line.
10. Jordan Shipley, WR, Cincinnati Bengals
Eighty-five players qualified for the leaderboard in our receiver statistics by being targeted on 50 passes or more. Of those 85 players, only one -- Austin Collie -- had a catch rate greater than the 70 percent figure put up by Shipley last season. Shipley's catch rate was actually slightly ahead of the other slot receivers he's often compared to: Wes Welker and Danny Amendola. He even posted the best DVOA of the three, along with the only positive receiving DVOA by any qualifying Bengals receiver. Shipley isn't going to be a star, but he's going to be a contributor on the next effective Bengals offense.
9. Lardarius Webb, CB, Baltimore Ravens
While Webb was expected to miss time recovering from a torn ACL, he made it back to the lineup in Week 2 and played the rest of the way as a nickel cornerback. Unfortunately, he was far from 100 percent, and it showed. Teams picked on him as the weak link in an already limited Ravens secondary, and while he responded with 10 passes defensed, he was also in coverage on eight plays that produced 20 yards or more. Another year removed from surgery, he should blossom into a starting-caliber cornerback on one of the league's best defenses.
8. Tashard Choice, RB, Dallas Cowboys
Choice is already fully-formed as a receiver and pass blocker. Unfortunately, he got lost in the shuffle in 2010 behind Marion Barber -- who will be released -- and Felix Jones, effectively disappearing from the lineup before returning in Week 13 with a 100-yard game against the Colts. You may have noticed his absence when fullback Chris Gronkowski missed the block that led to Tony Romo's season-ending collarbone fracture. With Romo's return, expect Jason Garrett to place a premium on keeping his quarterback healthy, which could mean more time for Choice in the lineup. Last year's 3.7 yards per carry average is really the product of small sample size; Choice's abilities are better represented by his 4.8 yards per carry career average.
7. Shonn Greene, RB, New York Jets
Poised to take over as the lead back on a run-happy team after a great 2009 playoff run, Greene struggled to hold onto the ball in Week 1 (admittedly against the Ravens) and spent the rest of the season in a timeshare with LaDainian Tomlinson. Nobody doubts Greene's ability to run effectively with the ball in his hands, but with a quarterback as limited offensively as Mark Sanchez, the running back's role as a pass blocker and dump-off receiver is essential. Young backs often struggle with those dark arts before improving with time, so don't fret: Greene's still on pace to be a very good running back.
6. Geno Atkins, DT, Cincinnati Bengals
At first glance, Atkins doesn't look like a great prospect; he had three sacks in a full season while playing for a mediocre defense. With Atkins, though, it's the more subtle stuff that suggests he has serious potential. For one, Atkins is a defensive tackle. Getting even three sacks as a rookie is a positive sign. There's also a lot bubbling under the surface suggesting that his sack rate could rise, too. While preseason stats aren't consistently meaningful, he produced 4.5 sacks in five games. And during the regular season, Atkins led the team in our advanced pass rush metrics by a good amount. He had nine quarterback hits, four more than any other Bengals defender, while his 17.5 hurries outpaced the rest of the lineup by five. A great pass-rusher with the size to play inside in a 4-3 is rare indeed, but it looks like the Bengals have that in Atkins.
5. Danny Woodhead, RB, New England Patriots
Although he was bound to receive umpteen amounts of hype upon succeeding as a member of the league's best offense, Woodhead deserves to be noted as a wildly efficient player in an incredibly cheap backfield. Woodhead was second amongst running backs in receiving DVOA, and with three additional carries he would have led qualifying backs in rushing DVOA. The easy comp is Kevin Faulk, but Faulk was never this effective. A better statistical comp is Charlie Garner, whose career wouldn't be a bad return for a guy the Patriots picked up for nothing.
4. Jamar Chaney, LB, Philadelphia Eagles
Since Andy Reid took over as the main man in Philadelphia before the 1999 season, the Eagles have struggled to find useful, consistent linebackers to play in their famously aggressive defense. High draft picks like Matt McCoy and veteran acquisitions like Ernie Sims seem to fail with equal aplomb. Their new hope is Chaney, a seventh-round pick in the 2010 draft who took over at middle linebacker after Stewart Bradley dislocated his elbow. By the end of the season, the Eagles were talking about moving Bradley to the strong side and leaving Chaney in as an every-down linebacker. Truthfully, it's a mystery how Chaney fell to the seventh round. An undersized, speedy linebacker that's conversant with pass defense is something every team needs in a shotgun-friendly league. Although Philly will continue to rotate its other linebackers, expect Chaney to be a mainstay for the Eagles going forward.
3. Wallace Gilberry, DE, Kansas City Chiefs
If you're looking for a good rule of thumb when it comes to evaluating the potential impact of young defensive linemen, there's one simple rule: Sacks trump everything. If you can get to the passer as a young player, you will have a job in the NFL. It's that easy. And although Gilberry was an undrafted free agent who the Giants signed and quickly released, he's exhibited an ability to make plays as a pass rusher since the Chiefs signed him. After a 4.5-sack season in 2009, Gilberry contributed seven sacks, eight quarterback hits and 10 hurries for the Kansas City defense in 2010. In each category, that was behind only Tamba Hali for the team lead, despite the fact that Gilberry started just two games. The only issue for Gilberry is opportunity: At defensive end, he's playing behind two top-five picks in Glenn Dorsey and Tyson Jackson, and he's probably too big to play outside linebacker in the 3-4. He could be a double-digit sack guy if he moves to a team that plays a 4-3, which could happen in 2012.
2. Morgan Burnett, S, Green Bay Packers
The Packers traded up to grab Burnett in the third round of last year's draft, and when starter Atari Bigby was placed on the physically unable to perform list to start the season, Burnett went straight into the starting lineup. He impressed before tearing an ACL in Week 4, which ended his season. He'll be healthy for the beginning of the 2011 season, and as a solid all-around player with great athleticism, he's going to get better with experience. With Bigby not tendered a contract and the best secondary in the league around him, Burnett should end up maturing into the next great Packers defensive back.
1. Jared Cook, TE, Tennessee Titans
Cook is a Jermichael Finley clone in terms of size and pedigree, with one pound and two slots in the draft separating them as far as measurables. The scary thing is that Cook is a significantly better athlete than Finley, putting up a 4.49 40-yard dash and 41-inch vertical leap at the 2009 combine, one year after Finley put up a 4.82 and had a 27.5-inch vertical. Like Finley, Cook was basically a shiny bauble with little use until his second pro season, although Finley broke out in training camp, whereas Cook was barely on the field before Week 11. Once Cook got his chance, though, he delivered.
Over the final seven games of the season, Cook produced 26 catches for 303 yards and his first NFL touchdown, including a 96-yard game against the Chiefs in Week 16. And this was with Kerry Collins and Rusty Smith at quarterback. With a full year as the starter ahead of him in 2011, Cook should be an occasionally dominant receiver as the No. 2 option in Tennessee's passing offense, running past safeties worried about Chris Johnson. He could become a regular Pro Bowler, beginning as early as this season.
