St. Francisco
45-35 Never Forget
Ok, it's results time! I just went alphabetically through the teams, and assigned ratios.
The first set of eight teams had a pass/run ratio of 30/70, and a RB1/RB2 setting of 90/10. We're looking for their running plays to be between 55-60%, and for their starting runningback to carry the ball 60-70% of the time:
CHICAGO BEARS
Pass-to-Run Ratio: 36/64 pass/run %
Starter-to-Backups Ratio: 64% of carries to starter
CINCINNATI BENGALS
Pass-to-Run Ratio: 37/63 pass/run %
Starter-to-Backups Ratio: 67% of carries to starter
BUFFALO BILLS
Pass-to-Run Ratio: 37/63 pass/run %
Starter-to-Backups Ratio: 69% of carries to starter
DENVER BRONCOS
Pass-to-Run Ratio: 36/64 pass/run %
Starter-to-Backups Ratio: 67% of carries to starter
CLEVELAND BROWNS
Pass-to-Run Ratio: 33/67 pass/run %
Starter-to-Backups Ratio: 66% of carries to starter
TAMPA BAY BUCCANEERS
Pass-to-Run Ratio: 35/65 pass/run %
Starter-to-Backups Ratio: 60% of carries to starter
ARIZONA CARDINALS
Pass-to-Run Ratio: 38/62 pass/run %
Starter-to-Backups Ratio: 71% of carries to starter
SAN DIEGO CHARGERS
Pass-to-Run Ratio: 35/65 pass/run %
Starter-to-Backups Ratio: 67% of carries to starter
So, we miscalculated on the pass/run ratio...instead of seeing running plays average between 55-60% of the total offensive plays, we saw seven of the eight test teams fall within 60-65%. The only team that didn't fall within that 5% range (Cleveland) was actually higher than that, at 67%. So, it is safe to assume that a 30/70 pass/run setting will get you 60-65% of running plays on offense.
On the RB sliders, I think we can re-define the percentage numbers we're aiming for in this area. Five of the eight teams fell within the range of 65-70%, while two more fell within one percent of that range...so we'll just say that seven of our eight test teams hit a 5% window. Arizona fell below the mark at 60%...but hey, it's a video game, and it's football. We should expect to see the occasional team steer away from the norm.
The second set of eight teams had a pass/run ratio of 40/60, and a RB1/RB2 setting of 80/20. We're looking for their running plays to be between 50-55%, and for their starting runningback to carry the ball 55-65% of the time:
KANSAS CITY CHIEFS
Pass-to-Run Ratio: 45/55 pass/run %
Starter-to-Backups Ratio: 66% of carries to starter
INDIANAPOLIS COLTS
Pass-to-Run Ratio: 45/55 pass/run %
Starter-to-Backups Ratio: 65% of carries to starter
DALLAS COWBOYS
Pass-to-Run Ratio: 41/59 pass/run %
Starter-to-Backups Ratio: 58% of carries to starter
MIAMI DOLPHINS
Pass-to-Run Ratio: 44/56 pass/run %
Starter-to-Backups Ratio: 67% of carries to starter
PHILADELPHIA EAGLES
Pass-to-Run Ratio: 45/55% pass/run %
Starter-to-Backups Ratio: 58% of carries to starter
ATLANTA FALCONS
Pass-to-Run Ratio: 43/57 pass/run %
Starter-to-Backups Ratio: 64% of carries to starter
SAN FRANCISCO 49ERS
Pass-to-Run Ratio: 46/54 pass/run %
Starter-to-Backups Ratio: 66% of carries to starter
NEW YORK GIANTS
Pass-to-Run Ratio: 41/59 pass/run %
Starter-to-Backups Ratio: 61% of carries to starter
Looking over the numbers, it's clear that a setting of 40/60 will give you 55-60% of running plays on offense. Seven of the eight teams fell within that range, with one team falling just one percent out of that range. This is five percent higher than we expected, but it's also in line with our first set of test teams, so that's good.
RB sliders...we saw roughly 65% of the carries go to the starter, which isn't much different than the 90/10 setting. We did however see two teams hit 58%. So, I think we can safely scrap the 90/10 setting, and just stick to trying to achieve somewhere around 65% with the 80/20 setting.
The third set of eight teams had a pass/run ratio of 50/50, and a RB1/RB2 setting of 70/30. We're looking for their passing plays to be between 50-55%, and for their starting runningback to carry the ball 50-60% of the time:
JACKSONVILLE JAGUARS
Pass-to-Run Ratio: 55/45 pass/run %
Starter-to-Backups Ratio: 50% of carries to starter
NEW YORK JETS
Pass-to-Run Ratio: 53/47 pass/run %
Starter-to-Backups Ratio: 55% of carries to starter
DETROIT LIONS
Pass-to-Run Ratio: 53/47 pass/run %
Starter-to-Backups Ratio: 56% of carries to starter
GREEN BAY PACKERS
Pass-to-Run Ratio: 52/48 pass/run %
Starter-to-Backups Ratio: 57% of carries to starter
CAROLINA PANTHERS
Pass-to-Run Ratio: 53/47 pass/run %
Starter-to-Backups Ratio: 58% of carries to starter
NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS
Pass-to-Run Ratio: 49/51 pass/run %
Starter-to-Backups Ratio: 67% of carries to starter
OAKLAND RAIDERS
Pass-to-Run Ratio: 53/47 pass/run %
Starter-to-Backups Ratio: 52% of carries to starter
ST. LOUIS RAMS
Pass-to-Run Ratio: 54/46 pass/run %
Starter-to-Backups Ratio: 59% of carries to starter
Hmm...so, we were right in our predictions that a 50/50 coaching philosophy would result in 50-55% of the offensive plays being pass plays. Unfortunately, this means that we were unable to achieve a set where 50-55% of the offensive plays would be run plays.
As far as the RB sliders go, I think we can agree that most fell around 55% of carries going to the starter, so we'll go with 55-60% of carries for this setting.
The fourth set of eight teams had a pass/run ratio of 60/40, and a RB1/RB2 setting of 60/40. We're looking for their passing plays to be between 55-60%, and for their starting runningback to carry the ball 45-55% of the time:
BALTIMORE RAVENS
Pass-to-Run Ratio: 60/40 pass/run %
Starter-to-Backups Ratio: 43% of carries to starter
WASHINGTON REDSKINS
Pass-to-Run Ratio: 60/40 pass/run %
Starter-to-Backups Ratio: 52% of carries to starter
NEW ORLEANS SAINTS
Pass-to-Run Ratio: 59/41 pass/run %
Starter-to-Backups Ratio: 55% of carries to starter
SEATTLE SEAHAWKS
Pass-to-Run Ratio: 62/38 pass/run %
Starter-to-Backups Ratio: 52% of carries to starter
PITTSBURGH STEELERS
Pass-to-Run Ratio: 59/41 pass/run %
Starter-to-Backups Ratio: 48% of carries to starter
HOUSTON TEXANS
Pass-to-Run Ratio: 60/40 pass/run
Starter-to-Backups Ratio: 54% of carries to starter
TENNESSEE TITANS
Pass-to-Run Ratio: 57/43 pass/run %
Starter-to-Backups Ratio: 57% of carries to starter
MINNESOTA VIKINGS
Pass-to-Run Ratio: 59/41 pass/run %
Starter-to-Backups Ratio: 54% of carries to starter
I think we can all agree that a setting of 60/40 pass/run will give you a nearly perfect percentage of 60% passing plays almost every time.
On the RB sliders...as with the 90/10 and 80/20 setting, we didn't see much change from the 70/30 and 60/40 setting. This is in line with our previous thoughts. In dual RB systems around the league, we typically saw 40-50% of the carries going to the starter, so we'll need to test the 50/50 setting to see if we can achieve this result.
CONCLUSION
It's relatively easy to adjust the pass/run ratios and hit your target percentage for passing and running plays. RB sliders are also adjustable, but the results fluctuate more than the pass/run results. Still, we can achieve percentages close to what we're looking for most of the time.
FINDINGS
30/70 pass/run % = A run-heavy offense where 60-65% of the offensive plays will be running plays.
40/60 pass/run % = A run-heavy offense where 55-60% of the offensive plays will be running plays.
50/50 pass/run % = A balanced offense where 50-55% of the offensive plays will be passing plays.
60/40 pass/run % = A pass-heavy offense where 55-60% of the offensive plays will be passing plays.
90/10 & 80/20 RB1/RB2 Sliders = Roughly 65% of the carries will go to the starter. You can expect to be on the high side of that number with 90/10, and on the low side of that number with 80/20.
70/30 & 60/40 RB1/RB2 Sliders = Roughly 55% of the carries will go to the starter. You can expect to be on the high side of that number with 70/30, and on the low side of that number with 60/40.
TESTS
1. From our NFL profiles, teams in a dual RB system typically handed the ball off to their starter 40-50% of the time. Can we achieve these numbers with 50/50 and 40/60 RB sliders?
The first set of eight teams had a pass/run ratio of 30/70, and a RB1/RB2 setting of 90/10. We're looking for their running plays to be between 55-60%, and for their starting runningback to carry the ball 60-70% of the time:
CHICAGO BEARS
Pass-to-Run Ratio: 36/64 pass/run %
Starter-to-Backups Ratio: 64% of carries to starter
CINCINNATI BENGALS
Pass-to-Run Ratio: 37/63 pass/run %
Starter-to-Backups Ratio: 67% of carries to starter
BUFFALO BILLS
Pass-to-Run Ratio: 37/63 pass/run %
Starter-to-Backups Ratio: 69% of carries to starter
DENVER BRONCOS
Pass-to-Run Ratio: 36/64 pass/run %
Starter-to-Backups Ratio: 67% of carries to starter
CLEVELAND BROWNS
Pass-to-Run Ratio: 33/67 pass/run %
Starter-to-Backups Ratio: 66% of carries to starter
TAMPA BAY BUCCANEERS
Pass-to-Run Ratio: 35/65 pass/run %
Starter-to-Backups Ratio: 60% of carries to starter
ARIZONA CARDINALS
Pass-to-Run Ratio: 38/62 pass/run %
Starter-to-Backups Ratio: 71% of carries to starter
SAN DIEGO CHARGERS
Pass-to-Run Ratio: 35/65 pass/run %
Starter-to-Backups Ratio: 67% of carries to starter
So, we miscalculated on the pass/run ratio...instead of seeing running plays average between 55-60% of the total offensive plays, we saw seven of the eight test teams fall within 60-65%. The only team that didn't fall within that 5% range (Cleveland) was actually higher than that, at 67%. So, it is safe to assume that a 30/70 pass/run setting will get you 60-65% of running plays on offense.
On the RB sliders, I think we can re-define the percentage numbers we're aiming for in this area. Five of the eight teams fell within the range of 65-70%, while two more fell within one percent of that range...so we'll just say that seven of our eight test teams hit a 5% window. Arizona fell below the mark at 60%...but hey, it's a video game, and it's football. We should expect to see the occasional team steer away from the norm.
The second set of eight teams had a pass/run ratio of 40/60, and a RB1/RB2 setting of 80/20. We're looking for their running plays to be between 50-55%, and for their starting runningback to carry the ball 55-65% of the time:
KANSAS CITY CHIEFS
Pass-to-Run Ratio: 45/55 pass/run %
Starter-to-Backups Ratio: 66% of carries to starter
INDIANAPOLIS COLTS
Pass-to-Run Ratio: 45/55 pass/run %
Starter-to-Backups Ratio: 65% of carries to starter
DALLAS COWBOYS
Pass-to-Run Ratio: 41/59 pass/run %
Starter-to-Backups Ratio: 58% of carries to starter
MIAMI DOLPHINS
Pass-to-Run Ratio: 44/56 pass/run %
Starter-to-Backups Ratio: 67% of carries to starter
PHILADELPHIA EAGLES
Pass-to-Run Ratio: 45/55% pass/run %
Starter-to-Backups Ratio: 58% of carries to starter
ATLANTA FALCONS
Pass-to-Run Ratio: 43/57 pass/run %
Starter-to-Backups Ratio: 64% of carries to starter
SAN FRANCISCO 49ERS
Pass-to-Run Ratio: 46/54 pass/run %
Starter-to-Backups Ratio: 66% of carries to starter
NEW YORK GIANTS
Pass-to-Run Ratio: 41/59 pass/run %
Starter-to-Backups Ratio: 61% of carries to starter
Looking over the numbers, it's clear that a setting of 40/60 will give you 55-60% of running plays on offense. Seven of the eight teams fell within that range, with one team falling just one percent out of that range. This is five percent higher than we expected, but it's also in line with our first set of test teams, so that's good.
RB sliders...we saw roughly 65% of the carries go to the starter, which isn't much different than the 90/10 setting. We did however see two teams hit 58%. So, I think we can safely scrap the 90/10 setting, and just stick to trying to achieve somewhere around 65% with the 80/20 setting.
The third set of eight teams had a pass/run ratio of 50/50, and a RB1/RB2 setting of 70/30. We're looking for their passing plays to be between 50-55%, and for their starting runningback to carry the ball 50-60% of the time:
JACKSONVILLE JAGUARS
Pass-to-Run Ratio: 55/45 pass/run %
Starter-to-Backups Ratio: 50% of carries to starter
NEW YORK JETS
Pass-to-Run Ratio: 53/47 pass/run %
Starter-to-Backups Ratio: 55% of carries to starter
DETROIT LIONS
Pass-to-Run Ratio: 53/47 pass/run %
Starter-to-Backups Ratio: 56% of carries to starter
GREEN BAY PACKERS
Pass-to-Run Ratio: 52/48 pass/run %
Starter-to-Backups Ratio: 57% of carries to starter
CAROLINA PANTHERS
Pass-to-Run Ratio: 53/47 pass/run %
Starter-to-Backups Ratio: 58% of carries to starter
NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS
Pass-to-Run Ratio: 49/51 pass/run %
Starter-to-Backups Ratio: 67% of carries to starter
OAKLAND RAIDERS
Pass-to-Run Ratio: 53/47 pass/run %
Starter-to-Backups Ratio: 52% of carries to starter
ST. LOUIS RAMS
Pass-to-Run Ratio: 54/46 pass/run %
Starter-to-Backups Ratio: 59% of carries to starter
Hmm...so, we were right in our predictions that a 50/50 coaching philosophy would result in 50-55% of the offensive plays being pass plays. Unfortunately, this means that we were unable to achieve a set where 50-55% of the offensive plays would be run plays.
As far as the RB sliders go, I think we can agree that most fell around 55% of carries going to the starter, so we'll go with 55-60% of carries for this setting.
The fourth set of eight teams had a pass/run ratio of 60/40, and a RB1/RB2 setting of 60/40. We're looking for their passing plays to be between 55-60%, and for their starting runningback to carry the ball 45-55% of the time:
BALTIMORE RAVENS
Pass-to-Run Ratio: 60/40 pass/run %
Starter-to-Backups Ratio: 43% of carries to starter
WASHINGTON REDSKINS
Pass-to-Run Ratio: 60/40 pass/run %
Starter-to-Backups Ratio: 52% of carries to starter
NEW ORLEANS SAINTS
Pass-to-Run Ratio: 59/41 pass/run %
Starter-to-Backups Ratio: 55% of carries to starter
SEATTLE SEAHAWKS
Pass-to-Run Ratio: 62/38 pass/run %
Starter-to-Backups Ratio: 52% of carries to starter
PITTSBURGH STEELERS
Pass-to-Run Ratio: 59/41 pass/run %
Starter-to-Backups Ratio: 48% of carries to starter
HOUSTON TEXANS
Pass-to-Run Ratio: 60/40 pass/run
Starter-to-Backups Ratio: 54% of carries to starter
TENNESSEE TITANS
Pass-to-Run Ratio: 57/43 pass/run %
Starter-to-Backups Ratio: 57% of carries to starter
MINNESOTA VIKINGS
Pass-to-Run Ratio: 59/41 pass/run %
Starter-to-Backups Ratio: 54% of carries to starter
I think we can all agree that a setting of 60/40 pass/run will give you a nearly perfect percentage of 60% passing plays almost every time.
On the RB sliders...as with the 90/10 and 80/20 setting, we didn't see much change from the 70/30 and 60/40 setting. This is in line with our previous thoughts. In dual RB systems around the league, we typically saw 40-50% of the carries going to the starter, so we'll need to test the 50/50 setting to see if we can achieve this result.
CONCLUSION
It's relatively easy to adjust the pass/run ratios and hit your target percentage for passing and running plays. RB sliders are also adjustable, but the results fluctuate more than the pass/run results. Still, we can achieve percentages close to what we're looking for most of the time.
FINDINGS
30/70 pass/run % = A run-heavy offense where 60-65% of the offensive plays will be running plays.
40/60 pass/run % = A run-heavy offense where 55-60% of the offensive plays will be running plays.
50/50 pass/run % = A balanced offense where 50-55% of the offensive plays will be passing plays.
60/40 pass/run % = A pass-heavy offense where 55-60% of the offensive plays will be passing plays.
90/10 & 80/20 RB1/RB2 Sliders = Roughly 65% of the carries will go to the starter. You can expect to be on the high side of that number with 90/10, and on the low side of that number with 80/20.
70/30 & 60/40 RB1/RB2 Sliders = Roughly 55% of the carries will go to the starter. You can expect to be on the high side of that number with 70/30, and on the low side of that number with 60/40.
TESTS
1. From our NFL profiles, teams in a dual RB system typically handed the ball off to their starter 40-50% of the time. Can we achieve these numbers with 50/50 and 40/60 RB sliders?
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