JUPITER, Fla. • The "butterfly effect," whether it's seen in science's chaos theory or simply science fiction, holds that a small flutter at one end of an ecosystem results in exponentially larger changes elsewhere. The flap of the butterfly's wings on one side of the globe, for example, could alter the weather pattern on the other.
The Cardinals have another name for this.
They call it September.
As the Cardinals pulled off the greatest comeback in baseball history last fall, a light bulb in Miami electrified St. Louis. A simple wild pitch at Busch Stadium was cataclysmic in Atlanta. A minor tweak of the rotation in Philly altered fate in Houston. The Atlanta Braves started the month with the second-best record in the National League, at 80-55, and held an 8½-game lead on the Cardinals. Twenty-eight days later, Atlanta was eliminated. Chaos theory, indeed.
"At the time it seemed like we would have to lose every game and they would have to win every game to make the playoffs," Braves catcher Brian McCann said last month. "That's kind of what it seemed like happened. You look back at some of the games down the stretch that we lost and look at some of the games they won and it's ... how? It was just a perfect storm."
The math of the matter is intimidating.
The Cardinals, at one point, had a 1.1 percent chance of making the playoffs, according to CoolStandings.com. No team with a lead as big as the Braves with as few games to play had blown it. Or, as Cardinals closer Jason Motte calculates: "There was one of the 100 things that if it didn't go just right for us we wouldn't have been able to do what we did."
The inexplicable and interlocking intricacies of the Cardinals' good fortune range from a pitching gamble to a rookie's first base hit, a rookie closer's meltdown to girlish Halloween costumes, Allen Craig's bat to Hurricane Irene. A ripple here created a wave there. This day-by-day look at what went right for the Cardinals in September reveals a series of fortunate events that led to the playoffs:
SEPT. 1
• Cardinals 8, Brewers 4 in Milwaukee
• Braves 5, Nationals 2 in Atlanta
Tony La Russa starts the month with a curious gamble: sitting ace Chris Carpenter and starting rookie Brandon Dickson on short rest against the division-leading Brewers. Even with a chance to sweep Milwaukee he believed getting Carpenter a day off now would pay off later. Dickson grinds through 3 1/3 innings. Backed by Albert Pujols' two homers, including a grand slam, and the 200th homer of Matt Holliday's career, the Cardinals prevail. "We've got a little something going," La Russa said.
SEPT. 2
• Reds 11, Cardinals 8 in St. Louis
• Dodgers 8, Braves 6 in Atlanta
Despite the rest, Carpenter allows six runs in six innings to the Reds. But in Atlanta, the Braves botch a 5-0 lead when their pitchers capsize. Manager Fredi Gonzalez insisted on giving a night off to closer Craig Kimbrel and set-up man Jonny Venters — a move some in the organization later questioned — so he stuck with Arodys Vizcaino and LA tagged him for a five-run seventh.
SEPT. 3
• Cardinals 6, Reds 4 in St. Louis
• Dodgers 2, Braves 1 (10 innings) in Atlanta
Pitching with nine days of rest, Jaime Garcia strikes out six while allowing one run in six innings. A sacrifice fly in the 10th inning proves the difference for the Dodgers at Turner Field.
SEPT. 4
• Reds 3, Cardinals 2 (10 innings) in St. Louis
• Braves 4, Dodgers 3 in Atlanta
Reds infielder Juan Francisco had 15 RBIs total last season, with six coming in this series, including the go-ahead single in the 10th. The Braves won on Martin Prado's game-ending single against Dodgers reliever Blake Hawksworth, a former Cardinal. "One of our biggest wins of the year," Jones declared.
SEPT. 5
• Brewers 4, Cardinals 1 in St. Louis
• Phillies 9, Braves 0 in Philadelphia
Shadowgate takes center stage. After being handcuffed by Brewers lefty Randy Wolf, the Cardinals go public with concerns about Busch Stadium's 3:15 p.m. start times and the shadows that crisscross the infield at dusk. Pujols said there were times he couldn't see the ball at all and acknowledges that he approached management about changing the game time with so much at stake. This loss leads to the club promising no 3:15 p.m. starts in 2012, but it's Philly's Cliff Lee who keeps them in the race with a five-hit shutout against Atlanta.
SEPT. 6
• Cardinals 4, Brewers 2 in St. Louis
• Phillies 6, Braves 3 in Philadelphia
Frustrated by a murky role, Kyle Lohse makes his first start in eight days and pitches six shutout innings. Lohse will not lose in September and posts a 1.37 ERA in 26 1/3 innings. Meanwhile, the Braves struggle after a 2-hour rain delay and the Phillies prolong starter Tim Hudson's funk. The lead to the MLB.com game story reads, "With a comfortable lead in the National League wild card race, the Braves would have to experience a monumental collapse to not earn a playoff spot."
Of note: That night, manager La Russa races away from the ballpark to join rocker Santana on stage at the Fox Theater. The guitarist gives La Russa a necklace that night with intertwined dragons. La Russa doesn't take it off through the Cardinals' run.
SEPT. 7
• Cardinals 2, Brewers 0 in St. Louis
• Phillies 3, Braves 2 in Philadelphia
Benches clear when Milwaukee outfielder Nyjer Morgan screams vulgarities at Chris Carpenter after a strikeout and flings a wad of tobacco in the direction of the mound. A curse word from Carpenter drew Morgan's ire, but his ninth-inning antics that night would irk the Cardinals even a month later in the National League Championship Series. Carpenter didn't flinch and finished the shutout, his first since 2009. The win cut the Braves' lead down to 6½ when Phillies pinch-hitter Ross Gload ended his personal two-for-21 spiral with a game-winning, pinch-hit RBI, his first RBI since July 17.
SEPT. 8
• Cardinals off
• Braves 6, Mets 5 in New York
• Braves 5, Mets 1 in New York
Atlanta had planned to have an off day in St. Louis. Instead a rotation already aching without Jair Jurrjens and Tommy Hanson was tested by a doubleheader at Citi Field, one forced upon Atlanta when Hurricane Irene washed out two games in August. The Braves' bullpen allowed one run in 8 2/3 innings to sweep the doubleheader. It was the added workload on young arms that Atlanta had been trying to avoid. The Cardinals used the off day to shuffle their rotation with an eye on assuring Garcia a start in Philadelphia a week later. Atlanta reaches St. Louis in the middle of the night, carrying a 7½-game lead.
SEPT. 9
• Cardinals 4, Braves 3 (10 innings) in St. Louis
Atlanta rookie closer Craig Kimbrel had not walked two batters in the same game since June 14. He had not allowed a run for even longer, stretching back 38 appearances to June 11. He did both in the ninth at Busch Stadium. Brought in to close a 3-1 lead that would have radically altered the race, Kimbrel walked two Cardinals and loaded the bases for Pujols. The Cardinals' first baseman delivered a two-run, two-out base hit just inside the first-base line to force extra innings. Nick Punto won the game with a sacrifice fly. "If we win that game, that does a lot of good and that probably propels us forward during the rest of the season," Atlanta's Chipper Jones said this spring. "We walked two guys. In front of Albert Pujols. With two outs. I mean, it's like that hasn't happened all year. It really, really changed the tone of that entire series."
Of note: During the celebration on the field, teammates rip the jersey from Punto's torso, thus taking his "Shredder" persona public for the first time. Punto had spent the season sneaking up on teammates and ripping dress shirts, collar to belly button. He called himself, "The Shredder." In the clubhouse, Punto announced: "Our season is not over."
SEPT. 10
• Cardinals 4, Braves 3 in St. Louis
Rafael Furcal, acquired at the trade deadline, leads off the first with a single, steals second for his 300th career stole base, takes third on a sacrifice bunt and then scores for a 1-0 lead on a two-hop base hit by Pujols. The Cardinals stake themselves to an early 4-0 lead and hold on, dropping Braves starter Derek Lowe to 1-8 vs. Cardinals. The Braves had to start the sinkerballer because the doubleheader upset the pitching schedule.
SEPT. 11
• Cardinals 6, Braves 3 in St. Louis
Dinged in Philly earlier in the week, Hudson stumbles in one inning, and that's enough for Yadier Molina to capitalize with a bases-clearing double that highlights a five-run inning. The Cardinals complete a sweep of Atlanta, establish their first five-game winning streak of the season and reach 12 games better than .500 for the first time during the season. Atlanta second baseman Dan Uggla recalled the series in detail last month: "Everything kind of aligned for the Cardinals from there. They still went out and made things happen. ... They really came alive. The closer they got to the wild card, it's like the better they got."
SEPT. 12
• Pirates 6, Cardinals 5 in Pittsburgh
• Marlins 5, Braves 4 (12 innings) in Atlanta
An unsteady bullpen blew the Cardinals' one-run lead in the eighth, yet a true save came later in Atlanta from an unlikely pinch hitter. Mike Stanton, the Marlins' bona fide slugger, couldn't start the game because of a severe hamstring injury, but he could limp off the bench to finish it with a two-on, two-out RBI pinch-hit single for the go-ahead run.
SEPT. 13
• Cardinals 6, Pirates 4 in Pittsburgh
• Braves 7, Marlins 1 in Atlanta
For the second time in a week since his return from the DL, Punto delivers the game-winner, this time with a ninth-inning double. Atlanta holds a team meeting before the game and players walk out to tell reporters that one win, just one win is what they need to relax.
SEPT. 14
• Cardinals 3, Pirates 2 in Pittsburgh
• Braves 4, Marlins 1 in Atlanta
On his way to a career-high 65 RBIs in 2011, Molina cracks a two-run double in the fourth that proves to be the winner. The RBIs are Molina's 19th and 20th in a 25-game span. The pitchers acquired in the July trade with Toronto — starter Edwin Jackson, lefty Marc Rzepczynski and righty Octavio Dotel — combine for 24 outs in the win. Enthusiasm is tempered, however, as Matt Holliday leaves team with finger injury.
SEPT. 15
• Cardinals off
• Braves off
Of note: Before the Cardinals did the improbable, two veterans pulled off the impossible: They persuaded La Russa to allow them a rookie hazing day. While other teams had rookies dress up in costumes for a late-season road trip (cheerleaders are popular; the Yankees once did "Wizard of Oz"), La Russa had long outlawed the practice, saying it "alienates the young guys." Arthur Rhodes and Chris Carpenter argued otherwise. When they arrived in Philly, all the players with three or fewer years of service time walk the final blocks to the hotel in feminine Halloween costumes. **
SEPT. 16
• Cardinals 4, Phillies 2 (11 innings) in Philadelphia
• Mets 12, Braves 2 in Atlanta
The rotation shuffle worked as Garcia throws seven strong innings only to have a certain win vaporized in the ninth when defensive replacement Corey Patterson drops a fly ball. Enter a rookie. Adron Chambers, who wore a frilly lipstick-red outfit complete with red cowboy hat and mask for his rookies-dues costume, a pinch-runner who stayed in the game to play outfield. He played hero in the 11th. With his first major-league hit, a single, Chambers snapped a 2-2 tie. The ball was retrieved and it sits as his mother's home. "Memorable timing, I'd say that," Chambers recalled this spring. "It's really still sinking in, to be honest."
SEPT. 17
• Phillies 9, Cardinals 2 in Philadelphia
• Braves 1, Mets 0 in Atlanta
The Braves regain the lost game and knock a day off the schedule when Tim Hudson tosses eight shutout innings and Jones delivers an RBI single in the eighth.
SEPT. 18
Cardinals 5, Phillies 0 in Philadelphia
Mets 7, Braves 5 in Atlanta
The Cardinals moved ace Carpenter to this start to assure he'd get the final game of the regular season. The righty responds with eight shutout innings. Subbing for Holliday, Allen Craig, who reveals later that he's playing on a fractured kneecap, clubs two homers to back Carpenter and capitalize on the Mets' rally against the Braves' increasingly vulnerable bullpen.
SEPT. 19
• Cardinals 4, Phillies 3 in Philadelphia
• Marlins 6, Braves 5 in Miami
Lohse dueled Roy Halladay for a win in Philly, and the Cardinals retired to their clubhouse to watch magic happen in Miami. Down by a run in the ninth to Atlanta, Florida's Emilio Bonifacio hit a two-hop grounder to third base. What should have been a routine play and the third out of a Braves' win, Chipper Jones instead lost in the low lights at Sun Life Stadium, a place built for football. The next batter, light-hitting Omar Infante, launched a homer to topple Atlanta and move the Cardinals to 2½ games back. "I lost a groundball in the lights in a major-league stadium. That does not happen," Jones recalled this spring. "Not only did that happen but the next guy who you don't really deem as a power source takes Kimbrel deep to win the game. That was the first time that I thought, 'Man, there is something divine, a higher power working here. We talk about the baseball gods all the time and it sure seems like they were against us there in September. I had a lot of good fortune early in my career. So maybe they're just getting me back."
Of note: After seeing Infante's homer clear the fence in Miami, the jubilant Cardinals begin shouting in the visitors' clubhouse in Philadelphia. It soon becomes clear what they're chanting, with Furcal leading the way: "Happy flight!" The phrase becomes their rally cry.
SEPT. 20
• Cardinals 11, Mets 6 in St. Louis
• Braves 4, Marlins 0 in Miami
Pinch-hitters Ryan Theriot and Chambers key a six-run seventh inning as the Cardinals complete the second of two rallies vs. the Mets to keep pace with Atlanta. Chambers fouls off five consecutive pitches before ripping a bases-loaded triple, the first of his career.
SEPT. 21
• Cardinals 6, Mets 5 in St. Louis
• Marlins 4, Braves 0 in Miami
While former Brave Javier Vazquez pitched the Marlins' record 25th consecutive scoreless inning, the Cardinals were about to squander their chance. In recent weeks, third baseman David Freese had been healthy but out of the lineup as his average suffered. Entering this start, he was in a 16-for-83 (.193) tumble with almost as many strikeouts (23) as total bases (25). The spark that ignited him for October came in the seventh inning of this game as the Cardinals trailed 4-3. He jumped a fastball for a two-out, three-run homer that flipped the Mets' lead and earned Freese his first career curtain call at Busch. "Obviously," he said afterward, "the biggest hit of my career." Little did he know what was coming.
SEPT. 22
• Mets 8, Cardinals 6 in St. Louis
• Braves off
With a chance to trim idle Atlanta's lead to one game, the Cardinals blow it. The Mets score six in the ninth, four off closer Jason Motte, for their biggest ninth-inning rally since 1973, when Willie Mays was in their outfield.
SEPT. 23
• Cubs 5, Cardinals 1 in St. Louis
• Braves 7, Nationals 4 in Washington
Cubs outfielder Alfonso Soriano pounced on a misplaced cutter from Kyle McClellan and deposited it 403 feet away to break a 1-1 tie. The loss eliminated the Cardinals from the division race. It was wild card or bust from here.
SEPT. 24
• Cardinals 2, Cubs 1 in St. Louis
• Nationals 4, Braves 1 in Washington
Ahead 1-0 in the ninth inning and with the tying run at third, Cubs closer Carlos Marmol struck out Freese for the second out of the inning. Four batters later, the Cardinals had won the game without putting a ball in play. Molina, Theriot and Skip Schumaker walked in succession to force home the tying run and put the winner at third. Marmol misfired on a slider that skipped away from catcher Geovany Soto and allowed pinch-runner Chambers to dash home on the wild pitch for the Cardinals' most unlikely win of an unlikely run. "I think for me that was a moment you thought if this didn't go our way, maybe not, maybe it wasn't going to happen," Holliday said this spring. "That win stands out. Crazy stuff just happens."
SEPT. 25
• Cardinals 3, Cubs 2 in St. Louis
• Nationals 3, Braves 0 in Washington
Three days and just as many sleepless nights after his error cratered the Cardinals in their loss on Sept. 22, Furcal homered for the difference in the win, and it came just as Atlanta's loss in Washington went final. With another "happy flight" in their future, the Cardinals donned Hawaiian shirts and set off for the final road series of the regular season. The headline in the next day's Post-Dispatch read: "HOPE."
SEPT. 26
• Astros 5, Cardinals 4 (10 innings) in Houston
• Phillies 4, Braves 2 in Atlanta
Angel Sanchez's squeeze bunt in extra innings downed the Cardinals, but they had sown the seeds of their salvation weeks earlier. The Cardinals' two wins in the final two games at Philadelphia had started the league-leading Phillies on an eight-game losing streak, their longest in 11 years. A team once on pace to win 106 games was suddenly no longer a guarantee to win 100 as it wheezed toward October. The Phillies saw their season-closing series in Atlanta as a chance to get their groove back and chase a club record 102 wins. They were the Cardinals' proxy, and they were motivated.
SEPT. 27
• Cardinals 13, Astros 6 in Houston
• Phillies 7, Braves 1 in Atlanta
The replacement killers continued to provide as Punto (in for Furcal) and Craig (Holliday's replacement after his one at-bat) combined for six hits, four runs, two home runs and six RBIs. For the first time since their last-gasp streak started, the Cardinals are in control of their own destiny and tied with Atlanta.
SEPT. 28
• Cardinals 8, Astros 0 in Houston
• Phillies 4, Braves 3 (13 innings) in Atlanta
Thirteen days earlier the Cardinals modified the rotation in hope that Carpenter would make this start and it would have meaning. Carpenter took care of his part with a brisk 2-hour, 20-minute shutout that included 11 strikeouts. Meaning came later. With champagne outside the door, the Cardinals watched from their clubhouse as Atlanta squandered a 3-1 lead and Chase Utley tied the game with a sacrifice fly in the ninth. Kimbrel's meltdown included 16 balls in 29 pitches and two walks that set up the sac fly. The go-ahead hit came from Hunter Pence in the 13th, and David Herndon closed it out in his seventh appearance of the season. Atlanta rookie Freddie Freeman ends his team's season by bouncing into a double play. It is the first night since June 8 that the Braves don't at least share in the lead for the National League wild card. It is the only night that mattered.
And it was just the beginning.
The Cardinals' fortunes were not confined to September as rotation alterations, unexpected heroes and friendly bounces would come their way in the playoffs, too. There were times during the historic run that players at the top rail or watching the Braves on TV were agog: "Oh, my, is this really happening?"
"It's weird for me because it feels like I said that probably five or six different times in the regular season, and then it continued to happen in the postseason," Schumaker said as the 2012 season approached. "All of the stars had to align for us to get in. The light bulb. Marmol's wild pitch. But it wasn't just one thing, one defining event. It was 22 or more of the 25 guys who made it happen."
