**The Official Keeping the Phillies Fans off the Ledge Thread***

[wingsfan77]

Not surprised at all by the result....Phillies line-up has been in decline for a couple of years now.

 

[Slateman]

Thus starts the decline of the Phillies. Mortgaged their future to win now. Only a matter of time before Hamels leaves and Doc and Lee aren't quite as good anymore.

 

[SethMode]

Thus starts the decline of the Phillies. Mortgaged their future to win now. Only a matter of time before Hamels leaves and Doc and Lee aren't quite as good anymore.

While I agree with the overall sentiment: 1) no way Hamels leaves unless someone ELSE overpays for him; 2) Doc is just as good as he's always been. Lee has been too, to a degree...just FAR more inconsistent.

 

[Slateman]

While I agree with the overall sentiment: 1) no way Hamels leaves unless someone ELSE overpays for him; 2) Doc is just as good as he's always been. Lee has been too, to a degree...just FAR more inconsistent.

Why do you say "no way?"

Halladay and Lee are 34 and 33. I expect in the next year or two they will start to show some decline. Not saying they won't be good, just saying that they won't be perennial Cy Young contenders.

 

[SethMode]

Why do you say "no way?"

Halladay and Lee are 34 and 33. I expect in the next year or two they will start to show some decline. Not saying they won't be good, just saying that they won't be perennial Cy Young contenders.

The second part is fine, agree to disagree I guess. Rare players are perennial Cy Young guy's their age...I think that for the length of their contracts they'll be fine.

As far as Hamels, I don't understand your question. I'm not saying that Hamels WILL be a Phil, I'm just saying that if THEY don't sign him someone else will have over paid for him because there is no way that the Phils aren't throwing the bank at him.

 

[Slateman]

The second part is fine, agree to disagree I guess. Rare players are perennial Cy Young guy's their age...I think that for the length of their contracts they'll be fine.

As far as Hamels, I don't understand your question. I'm not saying that Hamels WILL be a Phil, I'm just saying that if THEY don't sign him someone else will have over paid for him because there is no way that the Phils aren't throwing the bank at him.

Assuming the Phils have the money.

Ownership has shown an unwillingness to pay the luxury tax. In fact, when they traded for Pence, part of the deal was cash from Houston in order to cover the Phils going over the luxury tax.

Its going to be all about how much money they can clear this offseason. Ibanez is gone. Probably along with Rollins. Oswalt as well, but its going to cost the Phillies 2 million and they won't be eligible for draft compensation. With that money, they have to find a way to extend Madson and Hamels, deal with Pence's looming arbitration and try to find someone to play shortstop.

Thats a lot to deal with.

Then there is the issue of trying to find long term replacements for Utley and Polanco.

 

[SethMode]

Assuming the Phils have the money.

Ownership has shown an unwillingness to pay the luxury tax. In fact, when they traded for Pence, part of the deal was cash from Houston in order to cover the Phils going over the luxury tax.

Its going to be all about how much money they can clear this offseason. Ibanez is gone. Probably along with Rollins. Oswalt as well, but its going to cost the Phillies 2 million and they won't be eligible for draft compensation. With that money, they have to find a way to extend Madson and Hamels, deal with Pence's looming arbitration and try to find someone to play shortstop.

Thats a lot to deal with.

Then there is the issue of trying to find long term replacements for Utley and Polanco.

Fair, but the Pence deal was made under their budget BEFORE they lost the money on Raul and Heavy B (which will be a significant amount written off this offseason). The money will be there for the Phillies, particularly since it is for a pitcher (Ruben has obviously shown his affinity for signing pitchers). And they aren't worried about replacing Utley yet, and no one is worried about replacing Polanco. Trust me, there is no way they don't give Hamels a very worthy deal. If he leaves it's because either someone overpaid for him or he didn't want to be here anymore.

 

[Obst]

The aftermath of a playoff exit is usually not a good time to gather information. Think about how it felt when your season ended in high school and then multiply it by about a billion and you will be where the Phillies are now. One minute, they are the team with the best record in the major leagues and one of the best rotations in baseball history. The next, the season is over. For the first time since Valentine's Day, there is no tomorrow.

Nevertheless, the Phillies offseason strategy needs little clarification. Things got a bit more complicated when Ryan Howard crumpled to the turf while attempting to run out the groundball that ended the NLDS. But the Phillies will need to look for bullpen help and offense.

Here's some answers to the questions they'll face:

1) How long will they be without Ryan Howard?

We won't have a good idea until at least today, when Howard is scheduled to undergo an MRI. The first baseman said last night that doctors think he has a torn Achilles tendon, but recovery time depends on the severity of the tear. Professional athletes who rupture their tendon are usually sidelined around six months. Orioles outfielder Nolan Reimold underwent surgery to repair a ruptured Achilles tendon on Sept. 23, 2009 and was ready to play on Opening Day the following season. But he was barely ready to play, rushing the final stages of his recovery after an injury to Felix Pie. If Howard does have a ruptured tendon, it would likely cut into the offseason training program that he goes through in suburban Tampa each winter. Again, we won't know more until the MRI.

2) What if Howard's recovery does stretch into next season?

If the Phillies had any doubt about devoting some serious consideration toward left field, it would likely be eliminated. The team would have to think about playing John Mayberry Jr. at first. They obviously aren't going to be players for Prince Fielder or Albert Pujols. Veterans like Michael Cuddyer and Wilson Betemit leave much to be desired on the defensive end, but they can play first base and outfield along with third base.

3) Wait. . .third base?

It is another position that will have to be considered. Placido Polanco was hampered by injuries for the second straight season. He could require offseason surgery to repair a sports hernia. He struggled down the stretch and in the postseason. At $6.25 million, his salary for next season is higher than you'd like for a part-time player, but it is manageable if the Phillies can find a way to add some on base percentage and power to the position. That being said, there isn't a name free agent out there, especially if Aramis Ramirez exercises his option and stays with the Cubs. Even if he doesn't, the Phillies can't afford the kind of money he would likely require.

4) So, back to left field?

Yep, back to left field. Maybe Howard is back to full strength by the start of next season, or shortly thereafter. But his power and on base numbers and even his RBI total have dropped over the last three seasons. Same goes for Chase Utley at second base. Shane Victorino and Hunter Pence are the only two regulars who are undoubtedly in the prime of their careers. If Jimmy Rollins leaves via free agency, they will already head into next season weaker at one position (Jose Reyes is not an option and Rollins is clearly the second-best available offensive shortstop). If Howard's injury is not a big factor, Mayberry is the best option in left. But he has never played on a regular basis. And heading into a season with him and Domonic Brown as the top two options in left would require a huge leap of faith.

Which is why the Phillies should seriously consider free agency, assuming Amaro can't pull another big trade out of his hat. Nick Swisher could be a free agent if the Yankees decline his option. That isn't a sure thing, but he's an OBP guy who can work a count, something that was noticably missing from the Phillies' line-up during the postseason. Josh Willingham is another player in that mold. Defense is the big issue there, but he isn't replacing a Gold Glove in Ibanez. I wouldn't rule out Ibanez returning at a drastically lower salary and without any guarantee of regular playing time. But his is the one position that can clearly be upgraded through free agency.

Remember when the Cardinals took a chance on Lance Berkman?

5) What about closer?

I get the sense that they view it as their No. 1 priority. As good as Ryan Madson has been, it would be a mistake to pay top dollar for him, assuming top dollar is what Scott Boras will seek. There are a slew of closers available, and with Jose Contreras recovering from elbow surgery the Phillies could be in need of more than one arm. Cost-effectiveness is the key here. After all, Madson blew just one save this year and the Phillies still lost in the first round of the playoffs. They went to Game 6 of the World Series when Brad Lidge had one of the worst years ever out of a closer. Sure, it's an important position. But not important enough that a team should sacrifice the ability to upgrade in another area.

6) What else?

The success of the rotation overshadowed a lot of depth problems, not only in the bullpen, but on the bench. The Phillies simply do not have the young home-grown talent that the Cardinals were able to use to off-set their veteran core. The lack of depth was on display throughout the stretch run in playoffs. The Phillies simply did not have anybody who could play in place of Polanco. Their top left-handed option off the bench was Ross Gload, whose power was sapped by a hip injury. We haven't even mentioned Chase Utley's knee problem. He played all season, but not at the elite level that the Phillies need.

This line-up has reached an age where injuries need to be factored into roster construction. Expecting guys like Polanco and Utley and Rollins to make it through a whole season unscathed borders on fantasy.

So there is your shopping list. It is important to keep in mind that if Cliff Lee protects a 4-0 lead in Game 2, we are not having this conversation, at least not yet. The Phillies built this year's roster to win on pitching, and when that pitching did not perform up to expectations, the line-up could not make up the difference.

One of these years, the Braves are going to get it all together and mount a serious challenge for NL East supremacy. As long as Lee, Roy Halladay and Cole Hamels remain healthy, this team should continue to win a lot of games, regardless of the offense. But one serious pitching injury -- or one serious opponent in the playoffs -- could make this year's NLDS disappointment seem mild.

The Phillies are no longer a team that can rely on their ability to crush fastballs and poorly executed offspeed pitches, because they are not crushing those fastballs and poorly executed offspeed pitches like they did in their prime. Witness Utley and Ibanez flying out to the wall on Friday night. Who knows where those balls land a few years ago?

This is not a team in need of an implosion, but it is a team that has not changed its offensive identity nearly as fast as its former identity has changed. They need a hitter or two who can reach base, who can work a count, and they need depth at all positions.

"Your offseason shopping list" by David Murphy

 

[Slateman]

That Howard contract is killing the Phils ....

 

[Obst]

I think the things we need to do this offseason are

1. Resign Jimmy Rollins. If he doesn't resign I would go after Furcal.
2. Let Oswalt, Lidge, Ibanez, Madson walk.
3. Sign either Nick Swisher or Michael Cuddyer.
4. Sign either Wilson Betemit or Nick Punto as a key bench player
5. Look into the closer market, I'm not opposed to Bastardo closing though.

Hopefully an opening day lineup looking something like this

1. Jimmy Rollins
2. Shane Victorino
3. Chase Utley
4. Hunter Pence
5. Nick Swisher/Michael Cuddyer
6. John Mayberry Jr
7. Placido Polanco
8. Carlos Ruiz
9. Roy Halladay

A rotation of
Roy Halladay
Cliff Lee
Cole Hamels
Vance Worley
Kyle Kendrick/Blanton

 

[NAHSTE]

That Howard contract is killing the Phils ....

One of the worst contracts in baseball history.

 

[Warner2BruceTD]

This site is way too hard on Ryan Howard.

 

[Slateman]

This site is way too hard on Ryan Howard.

Hey, I ain't hating on him for signing it, any more than I hate on Werth for signing his deal with Washington.

But the fact is that the Howard contract is a whale that is affecting the Phillies ability to expand/improve their team. And he's not playing up to that contract.

 

[NAHSTE]

This site is way too hard on Ryan Howard.

His production has declined every year since his 2nd season in the league (when he was already 27 mind you). I'm not being hard on him, I'm calling the contract a rapidly depreciating asset.

 

[Blade]

Ryan Madson MUST be signed. There's no need to go out and splurge on a closer when we have one at home.

Lidge Ibanez and Oswalt should be gone. I honestly think that Rollins shouldn't be a priority, since his MVP season....he just isn't the same anymore. Plus we need a true lead off, I am sick of the swinging for the fences mentality at 6 of 8 spots in our line up.

 

[SethMode]

Ryan Madson MUST be signed. There's no need to go out and splurge on a closer when we have one at home.

Lidge Ibanez and Oswalt should be gone. I honestly think that Rollins shouldn't be a priority, since his MVP season....he just isn't the same anymore. Plus we need a true lead off, I am sick of the swinging for the fences mentality at 6 of 8 spots in our line up.

I shudder at the prospect of Wilson Valdez starting. That's why I think they have to bring back Rollins.

 

[Warner2BruceTD]

.224, 3, 28 against LHP.

That's what should concern Phillies fans as far as Howard is concerned. He's still a .900+ OPS guy against RHP.

If you go back to 2010, Howard actually had a much higher HR% vs. LHP than RHP, and only a slightly lower OPS (.826 vs. .876). His sharp decline vs. lefties this year is a problem, and he should probably be taking a seat more often against tough lefties moving forward.

Look, he's not a $25M player, but sometimes in sports you pay for past production. He wasn't a $10M player when he was hitting 50 bombs and driving in 150.

Howard has "old man skills" so he will probably not see much more of a decline until maybe the tail end of the deal. I don't think a 125 OPS+, 35 HR first baseman is the problem. The team won 102 games, they don't really have any problems.

 

[Warner2BruceTD]

Hey, I ain't hating on him for signing it, any more than I hate on Werth for signing his deal with Washington.

But the fact is that the Howard contract is a whale that is affecting the Phillies ability to expand/improve their team. And he's not playing up to that contract.

I don't want to hear this nonsense.

They've 'expanded and improved' their team every year for the last 5 years. They just won 102 games with the best SP staff we've seen in decades.

The Phillies have the highest payroll in the league, and usually go out and get whatever player they want.

28 teams would love to have their 'problems'.

 

[Slateman]

I shudder at the prospect of Wilson Valdez starting. That's why I think they have to bring back Rollins.

Freddy Galvis?

 

[SethMode]

.224, 3, 28 against LHP.

That's what should concern Phillies fans as far as Howard is concerned. He's still a .900+ OPS guy against RHP.

If you go back to 2010, Howard actually had a much higher HR% vs. LHP than RHP, and only a slightly lower OPS (.826 vs. .876). His sharp decline vs. lefties this year is a problem, and he should probably be taking a seat more often against tough lefties moving forward.

Look, he's not a $25M player, but sometimes in sports you pay for past production. He wasn't a $10M player when he was hitting 50 bombs and driving in 150.

Howard has "old man skills" so he will probably not see much more of a decline until maybe the tail end of the deal. I don't think a 125 OPS+, 35 HR first baseman is the problem. The team won 102 games, they don't really have any problems.

Great post W2B. Particularly like the bolded part, as it is what I generally argued in support of Howard.

But yes, his hitting against lefties and his approach in general better are both frustrating. I think we've seen the best we're going to get against lefties, but I would like to see him learn to hit a breaking ball at some point. If Pedro Cerano can do it, why can't he?