Week 7 thoughts *huh...what ?...wake me later* edition.

[Senser81]

I just stole this Bleacher Report article:

For years it has been said by pigskin pundits that the key to winning football is in the run game. That belief has been embedded into the minds of many fans, especially after the “success” of the Jets, who averaged 172 rushing yards per game last season.

Not mine.

I used to be a run-game enthusiast, but after looking at the statistics from last season, there is very little correlation between having a great run game and actual success. Look at the top ten running teams from last season, including their record and passing offense’s ranking:

1. Jets (9-7, 31st )

2. Titans (8-8, 23rd)

3. Panthers (8-8, 27th)

4. Dolphins (7-9, 20th)

5. Ravens (9-7, 18th)

6. Saints (13-3, 4th)

7. Cowboys (11-5, 6th)

8. Browns (5-11, 32nd)

9. Bengals (10-6, 26th)

10. Jaguars (7-9, 19th)

This is not very good company at all. The collective record of these teams is 87-73. Only half of these teams went to the playoffs and had winning records, and it’s arguable that Jets are only in that group because the Colts decided to rest their starters. Heck, nearly half of these teams had losing records!

Now, let’s look at the top ten passing offenses, their record and run offenses ranking:

1. Texans (9-7, 30th)

2. Colts (14-2, 32nd)

3. Patriots (10-6, 12th)

4. Saints (13-3, 6th)

5. Chargers (11-5, 31st)

6. Cowboys (11-5, 7th)

7. Packers (11-5, 14th)

8. Vikings (12-4, 13th)

9. Steelers (9-7, 19th)

10. Eagles (11-5, 22nd)

The top ten passing offenses are clearly more dominant than the top ten rushing offenses. Their collective record is 111-49, eight of them went to the playoffs, and every single one of them won at least nine games.

Run game enthusiasts will rebuttal by saying that balance is what’s key, as evidenced by the Saints.

They’re wrong again.

Half of the top ten passing games had run offenses that were ranked in the bottom half. Although they had less playoff teams, they only lost three more games than the passing offenses with a top half run game. Heck, the Colts’ run game was ranked dead last and their two losses only came because they rested their starters.

The statistics do not lie: the NFL is a passing league now.

Read more New York Jets news on BleacherReport.com

I love these "Bleacher Report" articles that base a trend on one season. Lets look at 2008, too...

Top 10 rushing teams in 2008 with record

Giants 12-4
Falcons 11-5
Panthers 12-4
Ravens 11-5
Vikings 10-6
Patriots 11-5
Titans 13-3
Redskins 8-8
Jets 9-7
Raiders 5-11


Top 10 passing teams in 2008 with record

Saints 8-8
Cards 9-7
Broncos 8-8
Texans 8-8
Colts 12-4
Eagles 9-6-1
Chargers 8-8
Packers 6-10
Cowboys 9-7
Dolphins 11-5


Well, that solves that...

 

[dave]

I'm trying to find this very comprehensive Cold Hard Football Facts article I read some time ago.
I wish I could.
Those guys are hardcore.
They break down this argument with stats that can't be argued with.

I would make the argument that 8 of the past 11 Super Bowl winners were predominantly passing teams. Obviously Baltimore and the Giants weren't.

 

[KINGOFOOTBALL]

Those top running teams of last year also have abysmal QBs and devoid of talent in comparison to the top passing teams. Winning half or more of your games based on a sound running attack is proof in the pudding IMO.

4-5-6-8-10 are all struggling this year. Theres no reason whatsoever talent wise they should be having any difficulty and yet the insistence on the pass is losing them games.
Theres a reason the Steelers win year in and year out while Cards and Saints are flash in the pans.Even with the QB out they have a foundation that doesnt force them into bad situations. Turnovers , ball control , Time of possession you need more than a hot hand to maintain that.

Hell I think the Colts are the perfect example. Manning chews up clock and controls clock and knows how to keep teams off balance. He not out there flinging and praying. Hes not forcing empty backfields. Successful or not there insisting on running the ball feeds there PA passing game.

Only difference between last year and this years on paper Saints is RB injuries. If it was purely a passing league that wouldnt matter. Clearly it does. Forcing the pass means you are against the odds.

 

[dave]

Only difference between last year and this years on paper Saints is RB injuries. If it was purely a passing league that wouldnt matter. Clearly it does. Forcing the pass means you are against the odds.

IMO, the difference between last year's Saints and this year's Saints are the lack of turnovers the D is producing.
The Saints' D got very, very lucky last year ... and that just hasn't carried over.
It also doesn't help their cause that they're missing the world's most expensive decoy on offence/offense.

I take nothing away from the Saints' Super Bowl last year, but I don't think they were the league's best team last year - just the team that got a lot of breaks on D, with a subpar cast of players.

 

[KINGOFOOTBALL]

The NFL is a passing league, pure and simple.

One of the first guys to embrace this was Belichick - only the smartest coach in the NFL.

I know you're smarter than Belichick, Senser. But just look at his teams. Shotgun most of the game. Dink and dunk passing, even in the U.S. Northeast.
The team hasn't had a remotely above-average RB since Corey Dillon.

If you think Belly was the first I dont know what to tell you.

FYI- When they ran the ball and played stellar defense they won 3 superbowls. The year they had the greatest passing offense in NFL history and lost to a running team.

I would make the argument that 8 of the past 11 Super Bowl winners were predominantly passing teams. Obviously Baltimore and the Giants weren't.

Pats 3 , Giants 1 , Steelers 2 , Ravens 1 , Bucs 1

All of those teams were run committed teams and/or defense minded.

 

[Senser81]

IMO, the difference between last year's Saints and this year's Saints are the lack of turnovers the D is producing.
The Saints' D got very, very lucky last year ... and that just hasn't carried over.
It also doesn't help their cause that they're missing the world's most expensive decoy on offence/offense.

I take nothing away from the Saints' Super Bowl last year, but I don't think they were the league's best team last year - just the team that got a lot of breaks on D, with a subpar cast of players.

But look at only their offense...they aren't nearly the force they were last year. The Saints are 18th in the NFL in scoring. Pierre Thomas was the one guy on offense other than Brees whom the Saints can't replace. The offense has a ton of turnovers.

 

[dave]

If you think Belly was the first I dont know what to tell you.

FYI- When they ran the ball and played stellar defense they won 3 superbowls. The year they had the greatest passing offense in NFL history and lost to a running team.



Pats 3 , Giants 1 , Steelers 2 , Ravens 1 , Bucs 1

All of those teams were run committed teams and/or defense minded.

The first Patriots SB maybe, but I think it's a myth they're a run-first team.
Same goes for both Steelers teams.
They aren't a run-first team.

Bucs, Ravens and Giants - yes.

 

[NAHSTE]

The first Patriots SB maybe, but I think it's a myth they're a run-first team.
Same goes for both Steelers teams.
They aren't a run-first team.

Bucs, Ravens and Giants - yes.

I don't see how you can say both of those Pittsburgh teams were pass-oriented. The first Super Bowl was all Bettis and Willie Parker. Roethlisberger was in his second year and barely threw the ball at all.

 

[Senser81]

The first Patriots SB maybe, but I think it's a myth they're a run-first team.
Same goes for both Steelers teams.
They aren't a run-first team.

Bucs, Ravens and Giants - yes.

Dave, I know you hate me and I try to steer clear of your postings, but you should really consider not posting in the NFL/NCAA forum anymore. So much of what you say is complete fiction, yet you say it with almost an air of superiority.

What you have just posted is possibly the most incorrect football-related posting I have ever seen in my 10+ years of surfing the internet. REPEAT: What you have just posted is possibly the most incorrect football-related posting I have ever seen in my 10+ years of surfing the internet.

The 2005 Steelers were LAST in the NFL in passing attempts, and FIRST in the NFL in rushing attempts. I cannot even elaborate any further.

 

[jms493]

YEah I am pretty sure the year the Steelers won with Bettis at HB and Big Ben as a rookie they didnt throw the ball that much at all.

Steelers Seahawks
Rushing yards gained per game 138.9 (5th) 153.6 (3rd)
Rushing yards allowed per game 86.0 (3rd) 94.4 (5th)
Passing yards gained per game 182.9 (24th) 216.1 (13th)
Passing yards allowed per game 198.0 (16th) 222.4 (25th)

Dave you waaaayyyyy wrong on that one.

 

[jms493]

Solid Run Game, Stout Defense is much more effective then Solid passing game, Stout defense.

Defense is always first IMO. The can pick up for so many weaknesses.

Special teams is also important....as long as it is not a weakness you are ok.

I think of the Raiders and Gannon, Pats and Brady, Buffalo and Kelly, Rams and Warner....these teams were stunned in the super bowl due to stout defenses.

I mean the fucking Bills......were a high powered offense and never scored over 24 in the SB.....yuck.

 

[Shayn•Da•Pain]

The first Patriots SB maybe, but I think it's a myth they're a run-first team.
Same goes for both Steelers teams.
They aren't a run-first team.

Bucs, Ravens and Giants - yes.

Kick rocks idiot.

The two stories of the year for the Steelers in '05 was A; Willie Parker=breakout. B; Steelers can win if Big Ben only has to throw the ball 15 to 20 times a game. In fact Big Ben averaged throwing the ball only 15 times per game in '05. That number increased to 23 per game in the playoffs. Compare that to the Steelers 32 rush attempts per game that season.

The Steelers ran early, and finished games off with a heavy dose of Jerome Bettis FTW each week making them a run-first run-last run-all-damn-day team.