The Oakland Athletics surprised everyone by signing Yoenis Cespedes to a reported four-year, $36 million deal when they hadn't been publicly linked to the Cuban outfielder before the news leaked out Monday morning. For their investment, they're getting a tooled-up hitter in his prime years by age but whose inexperience has led to some questions about how soon he'll have an impact.
Just grading out Cespedes on tools, he looks like a monster. His chiseled body wouldn't look out of place in an NFL backfield, but he isn't so jacked up that he's unable to move well. He'll show plus-plus raw power, and on a straight track, he's about a 65 runner (on the 20-80 scouting scale), although it'll play below that when running the bases. He's probably too big for center but should have plus range in right and has plenty of arm for it. His bat path isn't great, but he does have tremendous bat speed with a pull-oriented approach that, when he squares something up, produces enormous power. It's not hard to see him hitting 30 homers in the majors if he can hit enough to get to that power.
Cespedes hasn't faced a lot of good pitching and has faced very little pitching of any sort since defecting, so he'll probably be best served spending a few weeks or even months in the upper minors to shake off the rust and get used to facing better-quality off-speed stuff. The pull-happy approach leaves him very vulnerable on the outer half, and that kind of effort makes it hard to stay on the ball unless you've got superb hand-eye coordination. He also showed in his brief stint in the Dominican Winter League that he struggled to pick up spin out of the pitcher's hand, so adjusting to breaking balls probably will be the biggest obstacle between him and major league impact.
The other question on Cespedes is his age. Even assuming he's actually 26 -- the ages of Cuban ballplayers are difficult to verify -- that puts him right in his peak years, and by the time this contract is up, he'll be 30 and entering a decline phase. Yet some of those peak years will be spent making up for lost development time, so the A's probably will have to get most of their return on this deal in the final two to three years. That fits their organizational philosophy of building toward 2014-15, but it also will increase the risk that they don't get sufficient bang for their buck.