The Official Albert Pujols Contract Extension/Free Agency Watch

[strahanfan92]

Cardinals may be testing greed angle with Pujols

Fact: Sooner or later, someone is going to pay Albert Pujols an obscene amount of money to keep playing baseball at a Hall of Fame level. Maybe historic money, $28 million to $30 million a season, extended out until the next decade.

Uncomfortable probability: The Cardinals won't be the team that does it.

The longer you listen to Cardinals officials who carefully broach the subject, the more it sounds like they are either trying to get you to start getting comfortable with the possible reality of life without Pujols in the not-so-distant future, or at the very least take the concept out for a little public stroll for their own prospective negotiating benefit.

"Every team has financial limitations," team Chairman Bill DeWitt told Cardinals beat writer Joe Strauss on Tuesday at baseball's winter meetings in Florida. "I don't care what team you name. They have them. It's a process where you have to evaluate the value of a player given the ability to still field an effective, competitive club. Those are always the tradeoffs. It's not 'I don't want to give you X dollars because you don't deserve it.' It's 'I've got so much money I can afford and have a competitive team.' And you've got to put all those pieces together."

So let the fun and games begin.

While playing up the idea on one side of his mouth that he wants to do whatever it takes to keep Pujols "a Cardinal for life," the team chairman skillfully uses the other side of his mouth to work up the sympathy vote. Already the organization's decision makers are positioning themselves to sound like if they can't get the Cardinals' three-time MVP to re-sign with them it will only be because Pujols doesn't want to, not because they failed to meet his staggering market value.

Maybe I'm reading too much into this. But it sure does feel like the Cardinals are gearing up to follow the rather untidy script laid out for them by the New York Yankees in their contentious negotiations with shortstop Derek Jeter. Before this is over with, I hope the Pujols talks won't make the Jeter negotiation look like civil chit chat, though I fear they will.

Before this is all over, Pujols versus The Organization will spur a gripping conversation about how much a uniquely great baseball player is truly worth to a franchise and a city. There will be endless talk about how impossible it is in this ugly economy where ordinary people are struggling with high unemployment or painful pay cuts, to muster up much sympathy for Pujols' position.

And you can bet the Cardinals are counting on using that sentiment as a mighty weapon (if only subtly) in their public and private conversations.

And if so, it will all be a pathetic bit of public pandering.

Let's hope most intelligent people will see through that weapon of mass distraction for exactly what it is. The Cardinals will not be toeing the line for the downtrodden proletariat if they refuse to meet Pujols' high demands.

They will be doing what exceedingly rich men always do in wallet-measuring moments like this: fighting desperately to make sure they win the battle of wills against Pujols' agent, Dan Lozano.

Rich men versus filthy rich men. Nothing more, nothing less. No matter how it all falls, ultimately, DeWitt will still be filthy rich and Pujols will still be exceedingly rich (or maybe it's the other way around). But anything said publicly in between that attempts to make the other guy out to be a cold-hearted robber baron is pure garbage.

So here's what I hope does not happen. I hope we don't see this disintegrate into the same sort of ugly spat that played out publicly between the Yankees and their iconic shortstop over the past few weeks. In that version of rich men behaving badly, the Yankees thought the best way to conduct business was to keep making public statements at every step of the negotiations that framed Jeter — perhaps one of the three greatest Yankees in the long and celebrated history of that franchise — as the bad guy. It was their strategy to try to portray Jeter before the Yankees fan base as a greedy man who wanted to fleece the organization for a king's ransom.

Imagine that, the Yankees, who have made it a tradition to exceed their unlimited salary budgets, were trying to make it seem like overspending was now a reprehensible thing. And it backfired. Even if they ended up signing Jeter to numbers that were a lot closer to what they wanted than he did, it still made them look bad, made them look petty, made them look like they were trying to ruin the reputation of the man the organization spent the past decade building up as the absolute epitome of The Perfect Yankee.

So now we get to see if the Cardinals, baseball's second most decorated franchise behind those damned Yankees — and an organization that shamelessly sells Cardinal tradition and loyalty as if it were trademarked property — will dare to play the same game with Pujols.

For the past decade, they have made it clear that Albert Pujols is the face of their franchise. This is the guy they love to sell as the epitome of everything that is essential Cardinal — championship excellence, Hall of Fame worthiness, a role model and pillar of the St. Louis and world community. And Pujols has nobly embraced the role and given Cardinal Nation plenty to be proud of.

So now as these negotiations continue to move forward — or heaven forbid, grind to a stubborn standstill — will the Cardinals dare attempt to flip the script and turn their new "perfect knight" into some sort of money-grubbing villain?

Better yet, will anyone out there be gullible enough to fall for it?

[Goober]

The Cardinals would be foolish to give Pujols a ten year contract worth 28-30 million a year. It would be financially crippling for the organization, especially in latter years when Pujols isn't worth that kind of money any year. I expect the Cardinals will need to get a home town discount if they have any chance of signing with the Cardinals.

Also, one of the few teams, who have the money and the need for a first baseman to be interested in Pujols is the Cubs. Now that would make for some good drama.

[strahanfan92]

ST. LOUIS -- Albert Pujols repeatedly has said he wants to spend his entire career with the St. Louis Cardinals. Staring at a spring training deadline for contract negotiations, the team chairman remains hopeful the three-time NL MVP will get his wish.

Pujols declined Sunday to provide any kind of update on negotiations. His agent has said he will cut off talks at the start of spring training if an agreement is not in place, and general manager John Mozeliak confirmed the deadline on Saturday.

Olney: Serious Deadline
Albert Pujols is deadly serious about his contract deadline and, if the Cardinals fail to meet it, they risk losing the generation's top major leaguer, Buster Olney writes. Blog

A representative of Pujols' agent stood to the slugger's left and deflected questions on the topic at Sunday's news conference before the first baseman held a two-hour, sold-out autograph session at the team's Winter Warmup.

"Do you want to bring all that into the clubhouse all year, like you guys have been doing the last couple of years?" Pujols said. "No. I respect my teammates more than this contract.

"That's why you have to set some deadline on this, and that's it."

Neither side would offer a sense of how the talks are going. At one point, Cardinals media relations director Brian Bartow stepped in and said Pujols' agent had set ground rules for the news conference.

Chairman Bill DeWitt said the Cardinals' payroll for next season projects to "well above $100 million," which is the highest ever for the franchise and includes $16 million for Pujols' option year. DeWitt said Pujols was irreplaceable, both as a talent and as the face of the franchise.

"That's all wrapped into one. He's an iconic player because he's such a great player," DeWitt said. "He's proven year in and year out that he's one of the greatest players to play the game.

"He's never had a bad year and has lifetime totals that are incredible. You can't go out and find an Albert Pujols."

DeWitt said the best word to characterize the Cardinals' stance was hopeful.

"We want him to be with us," DeWitt said. "Until something happens one way or another, there's not a lot to say beyond that."

“
I respect my teammates more than this contract. That's why you have to set some deadline on this, and that's it.
”
-- Albert Pujols
Manager Tony La Russa said he'd stay out of the talks.

"I'm not going to say a word," La Russa said. "Let them work it out."

Signing free agent Lance Berkman to a $8 million contract signaled a willingness to spend after the Cardinals missed the postseason three of the last four years.

"Sometimes you have to seize the moment, and we did," DeWitt said. "You go for it."

Pujols led the National League with 42 homers last season and won his first league RBIs title with 118. He also tied Matt Holliday for the team batting lead at .312.

"If the Cardinals want to say something in the paper and talk about our business, then they can say something," Pujols said. "Myself I think I'm more professional than that.

"If we want to get something done, we'll get it done and everybody's going to know when we get it done."

No deal by the start of spring training would not necessarily mean Pujols will be moving on. The Cardinals could sign him after next season and DeWitt expressed confidence that Pujols would not let it affect him on the field.

"If we don't sign him in the next four weeks, that doesn't mean he's not going to be a Cardinal," DeWitt said. "We'd love to sign him tomorrow, or whenever."

Pitchers and catchers report to Jupiter, Fla., on Feb. 13 with the first workout the following day. The full squad is due into camp by Feb. 18.

"Obviously it's something the organization probably doesn't want hanging for the whole season," Berkman said. "Clearly you're talking about the best player in baseball, probably the best hitter in the history of baseball.

"I'm not sure how you go about taming that tiger."

Pujols noted that speculation regarding his future, and whether the Cardinals are willing to pay top dollar for the three-time NL MVP, has been swirling for several years. The Cardinals have four other players making more than $10 million a year in outfielder Holliday and pitchers Chris Carpenter, Adam Wainwright and Kyle Lohse.

"You guys have the opportunity to be writing about this over the last two years," Pujols said. "So what else is there to say? I think everybody knows I want to be a Cardinals and what else is there to say?"

The three-time NL MVP, who turned 31 on Sunday, has played his entire 10-year career in St. Louis. Pujols was to be honored as co-man of the year along with Wainwright at Sunday night's dinner for the St. Louis chapter of the Baseball Writers Association of America.

Pujols says he's in better shape than in recent seasons when he was hindered by injuries, and excited about the changes the team has made. Pujols underwent surgery on his right elbow after the 2008 and '09 seasons.

"I feel great," Pujols said. "Hopefully I can stay healthy all year."

[mcstl25]

As strong as my man-love is for Pujols, he isn't worth $300 million. If I was the Cardinal's GM, I wouldn't offer more than 6 or 7 years at $28 to $30 million.

As much as it pains me to say, if the Cardinals don't sign him before spring training, he's probably not coming back to St. Louis. And even worse, I could see the Cubs backing up the money truck to bring him to Chicago, just to spite the Cardinals.

[strahanfan92]

Sources: Pujols to veto any trade offer

Other teams have asked the Cardinals about Albert Pujols in the past, making sure that if St. Louis ever thought about dealing the perennial MVP candidate, the inquiring team's interest was established.

The Cardinals have never really pursued any of that trade discussion.

But no matter what happens in the last days of negotiations before Pujols arrives at the Cardinals' camp in spring training, the slugger will not be traded.


Albert Pujols
#5 1B
St. Louis Cardinals
2010 STATS
GM
159
HR
42
RBI
118
R
115
OBP
.414
AVG
.312
The understanding within the St. Louis front office is that Pujols will not accept any trade going forward, according to sources. He has the right to veto any trade proposal, and would do so.

This means there are only two possible results in the negotiations in the Pujols talks: Either he signs a contract extension with the Cardinals, or he will become a free agent this coming fall.

Pujols and the Cardinals are negotiating under the player's deadline of Feb. 19, the first day he arrives in training camp. After he begins spring training, Pujols does not want his agent, Dan Lozano, to discuss a contract with the Cardinals because he doesn't want to have any distractions, a stance he has taken throughout his career.

What happens after that remains to be seen, but the choices facing the Cardinals are expensive in different ways. Either St. Louis will negotiate a deal along the lines what Pujols has asked for -- probably something in the neighborhood of the 10-year, $275 million deal that Alex Rodriguez signed with the Yankees in fall 2007 -- or the Cardinals will pay for the backlash after Pujols walks away.

If Pujols departs as a free agent, the Cardinals would get two draft picks in return. But it's doubtful they ever could make up for the lost production.

In every season he has played, Pujols's OPS has ranged from .955 to 1.115. Pujols has never failed to hit at least 32 homers or drive in at least 103 runs, and in nine of his 10 seasons his on-base percentage has never been under .403.

[strahanfan92]

Insider:

With the recent revelation that Albert Pujols will not negotiate a new contract during the season, the rumor mill is already turning with possible scenarios for the St. Louis Cardinals first baseman if he doesn't reach a new deal before spring training.

The three most likely scenarios to consider when analyzing the situation are fairly obvious: Either he re-signs with St. Louis, gets traded in July, or signs elsewhere next winter. When we break down these possibilities one by one it's easy to envision some pretty intriguing situations, such as Pujols ending up with the Cards' long-time divisional rivals, or peppering the Green Monster with line drives well into the next decade.


Scenario No. 1: Pujols stays with the Cardinals
In order to determine where Pujols lands, we need to establish his value. His agent Dan Lozano is supposedly asking the Cardinals for a contract on par with the ten-year, $275 million deal Alex Rodriguez currently operates within. (Pujols will be 32 when his next contract begins, the same age Rodriguez was when he signed his contract.) The difference is that A-Rod got that on the open market, and if Pujols re-signs before camp, he'll be negotiating only with St. Louis. He'll surely do better than the five-year, $125 million extension Ryan Howard got last season, and one source told Sports Illustrated's Jon Heyman that the Cardinals could go as high as $196 million over seven years, which fits nicely between the A-Rod and Howard deals.

If Pujols signs a deal worth $28 million per year, that's a raise of more than $10 million; the Cards' 2011 payroll is already north of $100 million, and considering that their payroll has averaged $92.3 million over the past five years, they're probably at their upper limit. The Cardinals' 2012 commitments are at about $49 million right now, so adding Pujols' $28 million to that puts them at $77 million and gives them a core of Pujols, Matt Holliday, Adam Wainwright, Kyle Lohse, Jake Westbrook and Colby Rasmus. They could exercise Chris Carpenter's $15 million option, but that would put them at about $92 million with 18 roster spots left to fill. Sorry, St. Louis fans, but Pujols and Carpenter are probably mutually exclusive beyond 2011.

It's certainly within the Cardinals' means to re-sign Pujols before camp begins, but if they decide he'll be too much of a burden on their overall payroll, or if he holds out for a 10-year deal, that's when things will get interesting.

Scenario No. 2: Pujols gets moved in July 2011
Let's say the Cardinals have fallen out of the NL Central race in July -- the Milwaukee Brewers did acquire Zack Greinke, after all, and the Cincinnati Reds return much of their core. There will certainly be some trade buzz surrounding Pujols. Since he will cost a king's ransom in a trade (or at least a prince's), any team that acquires him would be one that thinks it can re-sign him. Plus, since Pujols has a full no-trade clause because of his 10-and-5 rights, that limits the field a bit.

A common refrain during this Pujols saga is that the market for him is weakened because since the New York Yankees and Boston Red Sox -- baseball's biggest bidders -- both have established first basemen, they won't pay top dollar for another, so that one has to be a full-time DH, even if the other guy is Pujols. This is probably true about New York, as Mark Teixeira has six years left on his contract and a full no-trade clause, but what about the Red Sox? Yes, they traded for Adrian Gonzalez this winter and there was an understanding that he would soon sign a long-term extension, but he hasn't yet. You don't think Theo Epstein has Pujols in the back of his mind at this point? If the Red Sox wanted to, they could even give Gonzalez an extension and send him to the Cardinals in a trade for Pujols. I know what you're thinking: That's not worth it; Pujols isn't that much better than Gonzalez. But really, he is. Check out this graph comparing their Wins Above Replacement by year.

Yes, Pujols is a couple of years older, but he's an outlier in terms of talent perhaps more than anyone else in MLB. If the Red Sox can bring him on board, you don't think they'd be willing to flip Gonzalez? His current contract does not include any no-trade provisions, and it's not inconceivable to think he could be Pujols trade bait this summer if the Cardinals are scuffling. Gonzalez, who will certainly cost less than Pujols, would be a nice fit in St. Louis and keep the Cards in contention. Crazy? Maybe. But considering the high standard for success in the AL East, don't write the Red Sox off just yet.

Scenario No. 3: Pujols signs elsewhere next winter
The Pujols-to-the-Sox scenario is admittedly far-fetched, so who are some potential free-agent suitors if we assume the Yanks and Sox are out of it? The Los Angeles Angels will also have some cash, and could move Kendry Morales to DH if need be. They're a possibility. The New York Mets have a bunch of money coming off the books next winter, but would they move promising young first baseman Ike Davis to right field, a position he played in college, to make room for Pujols? Possible, but unlikely. The real doomsday scenario for Cardinals fans is Pujols signing with the Chicago Cubs, which would be the modern-day equivalent of the Red Sox selling Babe Ruth to the Yankees.


Getty Images
Wrigley Field could someday be the home of Pujols.
The Cubbies have been plagued by some onerous contracts in recent years, but Kosuke Fukudome, Aramis Ramirez and Carlos Pena could all be free agents after next season (Ramirez has a mutual option), and that's roughly $37.1 million off of the books. Other than beating them in the NLCS, is there a better way for the Cubs to stick it to the Cardinals than by signing Pujols? One thing's for sure: If he hits the market, Chicago will be there waiting to drive up the price.

We could have fun with crazy Pujols scenarios all day, but it's hard to imagine the Cardinals letting him go. St. Louis gave Holliday a huge deal last offseason, and that's not a move you make unless you plan on signing Pujols, no matter the cost. Holliday is an excellent player, but the Cardinals are not going to consistently contend with him and not Pujols.

If St. Louis somehow lets Pujols slip away, it will be reminiscent of when Barry Bonds finally retired. The Giants' status as a contending team had been propped up for many years by Bonds alone, and the same can be said for Pujols. The difference between him and the typical first baseman is about five wins a season. You don't need a WAR graph to know that's enough to turn St. Louis from a perennial contender into a perennial pretender.

[strahanfan92]

UPITER, Fla. - More than a month into stop-and-start talks, the Cardinals and first baseman Albert Pujols are "nowhere close" to reaching agreement on a contract extension that would eliminate the possibility of the three-time NL MVP reaching free agency after the 2011 season, according to sources familiar with the process.
With a Feb. 15 deadline looming for talks to reach fruition, the sides remain in contact with one another. But according to multiple sources no framework for a potential compromise has yet to take shape.
At Pujols' request, the Cardinals and the player's agent, Dan Lozano, continue to hold to a virtual media blackout regarding the matter. Yet sources familiar with the respective sides agree that little if any momentum has been achieved.
The sides negotiated only fleetingly last March before tabling the matter -- a seeming contradiction to the team's public stance that Spring Training 2010 offered an optimal time to make Pujols "a Cardinal for life." The market subsequently detonated when the Philadelphia Phillies awarded first baseman Ryan Howard a five-year, $125 million extension and outfielders Carl Crawford and Jayson Werth secured seven-year deals as free agents.
Crawford's contract, for example, averages more than $20 million per year despite his failure to hit 20 home runs in any season. Werth never has produced 100 RBI in a season and neither outfielder has ever finished higher than seventh in balloting for his league's Most Valuable Player.
Sources familiar with the process insist that the Cardinals and Lozano continue to talk but that no baseline is in place for length of contract or average annual value. The assessment comes following a nearly two-week break in talks that corresponded with general manager John Mozeliak's acknowledgement of the negotiating deadline.
The Cardinals are believed leery of setting Pujols' market for fear their proposal could be rejected and eventually shopped should he reach free agency.
Pujols, 31, is certain to reject any request for a so-called "home team discount" before reaching free agency.
The Cardinals, meanwhile, may remain skeptical whether Pujols can command either the number of years or a $30 million average that a club source said was advanced last year by his representation. The club is also acutely aware of analytics that show players rarely maintain the same production after turning 33. Pujols, who has hit .331 while averaging more than 155 games, 40 home runs, 118 runs and 123 RBI in his first 10 seasons, will turn 32 before playing the first game within his next contract.
While pessimism clearly has slipped into a process initially described as "positive," the Cardinals are more likely to press the matter as Lozano's deadline approaches.
Pujols is due $16 million in the final season of an eight-year, $111 deal finalized in February 2004. Left fielder Matt Holliday is scheduled to remain the Cardinals' highest-paid player, as he is owed $17 million in the second season of a seven-year, $120 million deal negotiated 13 months ago.

[strahanfan92]

UPITER, Fla. - More than a month into stop-and-start talks, the Cardinals and first baseman Albert Pujols are "nowhere close" to reaching agreement on a contract extension that would eliminate the possibility of the three-time NL MVP reaching free agency after the 2011 season, according to sources familiar with the process.
With a Feb. 15 deadline looming for talks to reach fruition, the sides remain in contact with one another. But according to multiple sources no framework for a potential compromise has yet to take shape.
At Pujols' request, the Cardinals and the player's agent, Dan Lozano, continue to hold to a virtual media blackout regarding the matter. Yet sources familiar with the respective sides agree that little if any momentum has been achieved.
The sides negotiated only fleetingly last March before tabling the matter -- a seeming contradiction to the team's public stance that Spring Training 2010 offered an optimal time to make Pujols "a Cardinal for life." The market subsequently detonated when the Philadelphia Phillies awarded first baseman Ryan Howard a five-year, $125 million extension and outfielders Carl Crawford and Jayson Werth secured seven-year deals as free agents.
Crawford's contract, for example, averages more than $20 million per year despite his failure to hit 20 home runs in any season. Werth never has produced 100 RBI in a season and neither outfielder has ever finished higher than seventh in balloting for his league's Most Valuable Player.
Sources familiar with the process insist that the Cardinals and Lozano continue to talk but that no baseline is in place for length of contract or average annual value. The assessment comes following a nearly two-week break in talks that corresponded with general manager John Mozeliak's acknowledgement of the negotiating deadline.
The Cardinals are believed leery of setting Pujols' market for fear their proposal could be rejected and eventually shopped should he reach free agency.
Pujols, 31, is certain to reject any request for a so-called "home team discount" before reaching free agency.
The Cardinals, meanwhile, may remain skeptical whether Pujols can command either the number of years or a $30 million average that a club source said was advanced last year by his representation. The club is also acutely aware of analytics that show players rarely maintain the same production after turning 33. Pujols, who has hit .331 while averaging more than 155 games, 40 home runs, 118 runs and 123 RBI in his first 10 seasons, will turn 32 before playing the first game within his next contract.
While pessimism clearly has slipped into a process initially described as "positive," the Cardinals are more likely to press the matter as Lozano's deadline approaches.
Pujols is due $16 million in the final season of an eight-year, $111 deal finalized in February 2004. Left fielder Matt Holliday is scheduled to remain the Cardinals' highest-paid player, as he is owed $17 million in the second season of a seven-year, $120 million deal negotiated 13 months ago.

[Jntg4]

The deadline for an extension between the Cardinals and Albert Pujols is earlier than anticipated. The first baseman had been scheduled to arrive in Spring Training on February 19th, but he is now expected to report on February 16th, according to ESPN. That will reduce the sides' negotiating window by three days.

The Cardinals have until Spring Training to work out a deal with Pujols’ agent, Dan Lozano, or the three-time MVP will hit free agency after the season. Earlier today, we heard that the Cardinals had yet to make Pujols a formal offer as of last weekend.

[tribeTILLiDIE]

Jon Heyman pretty much confirmed exactly what everyone's been thinking:

via twitter:

word is, albert pujols and #cardinals are so far apart there is virtually no chance for a deal by his feb. 16 deadline. pujols & cardinals still aren't in same ballpark on years or $. hes said to see a-rod-plus as comp, source: they want to keep to 6/7 yrs

That's just sad. The Cards have the money to keep him but his future with this team looks very ominous. He's going to go down as one of the best players of all-time and the Cards just aren't doing what it takes here.

I've got Pujols in the same category as Jeter, I just can't picture him in another uniform.

[NAHSTE]

The first baseman had been scheduled to arrive in Spring Training on February 19th, but he is now expected to report on February 16th, according to ESPN. That will reduce the sides' negotiating window by three days.

Wow whoever wrote that really crunched some numbers there. Who forged this guy's transcript?

[manchild24]

well if they dont get a deal done, they will still throw $25mill a season at him and he will take it.

Its like this comedian said (think it was Caliendo) talking about Connery when they asked him to do the voice of the dragon in Dragonheart. "Im Sean Connery, I was 007 and you want me to play a what!!!!, wait you're going to pay me how much"

hes not getting type of money unless he goes to "you know who".

This what I hate about baseball, in baseball terms he's worth the money. But no one is worth this amount thats whats crazy about it. He can sign this contract blow his knee out and they are on the hook for it. Football is really in my opinion the only sport that should have money guarenteed due to an injury. Baseball is out of hand. (basketball is a close second when teams are throwing 20 million at center who avg 6 pts and 5 boards a game)

[Goober]

Fangraphs broke it down last month, Pujols is worth 10 years and 267 million, even with regression:

Earlier this week, Cardinals owner Bill Dewitt told Jon Paul Morosi that he was “hopeful” that his team would be able to come to terms on a contract extension with Albert Pujols, who is scheduled to become The Free Agent To End All Free Agents next winter. The obvious question that looms over everything is just what kind of contract is fair for one of the best hitters to ever live.

It is easy to forget just how great Pujols is, but to put it in perspective, he’s on an entirely different plane than the rest of the league. For instance, the Red Sox gave up a significant chunk of their farm system for the right to pay Adrian Gonzalez about $150 million dollars (whenever that deal becomes official, anyway), and yet, Gonzalez’s best year is only marginally better than Pujols’ worst year. I think this graph kind of tells the story.



Gonzalez and Mark Teixeira are both elite players, and are being paid accordingly. Stack them up next to Pujols, though, and they look like scrubs. He dwarfs even the best active first baseman, and his only true peers now reside in Cooperstown. What’s fair market value for a player with these skills?

Let’s start with the working assumption that wins are currently being priced at about $5 million apiece this winter. For his career, Pujols has averaged +7.1 WAR per 600 PA, and that actually understates his value, because his career low in a season is 634 plate appearances. He’s been both amazingly valuable and remarkably durable. Still, headed into his age 31 season, we have to assume that he can’t sustain this level of greatness forever, and that his body will start to make him take some days off eventually. Let’s project him as a +7 win player for 2011, just to play it safe. You could argue for a bit higher number, but this will at least give us a baseline.

If we use the standard half-win-decrease-per-year aging curve, our ten year projection for Pujols would have him producing +47.5 wins between now and 2020. But he’s already under contract for 2011, so we should remove that from the equation, and just focus on 2012 and beyond. A deal that took him through 2021 would produce an expected +42.5 WAR, and if we assume a steady rate of 5% salary inflation, the value of those wins would be $267 million.

If 10/267 sounds remarkably close to what Alex Rodriguez got, then it is. They’re pretty similar players through this stage of their career. Pujols is a bit better hitter – his career wRC+ of 173 bests Rodriguez’s 153 mark through 2007, the year he opted out and signed his 10 year extension – but Rodriguez offered the potential of being able to play a tougher defensive position. When someone holds up Rodriguez’s deal as an example of the type of contract that Pujols should receive, they’re not grasping at straws; the numbers support a fair market value in that neighborhood.

Even if Pujols gives the Cardinals a 10 percent hometown discount, we’re still looking at his value being in the neighborhood of $240 million or so. If he wants his talents to be reflected in his next contract, the Cardinals are going to have to get somewhere near that number in order to give him separation from the likes of Teixeira and Joe Mauer, who each received $180 million deals and simply aren’t as good as he is.

The good news for the Cardinals is that, barring a catastrophic injury, he’ll probably be worth the money. There’s likely going to be some sticker shock, but he’s the kind of player you go all out for. Even if it costs $250 million to keep him, he deserves it. He’s that good.

http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/index.php/the-pujols-contract/

[NAHSTE]

Give it to him. 26 per sounds like a lot, but then you have to remember that you're guaranteed to have the best hitter in baseball (plus a good fielder and base runner) for at least 2/3 of the duration of that deal.

If in 7 or 8 years he starts to regress and you need to unload the contract, there's always the Angels.

[mcstl25]

I don't see a deal getting done before spring training. Pujols has been pretty clear that he's not giving the Cardinals a home town discount, and I can't see the Cardinals matching or exceeding Arod's deal this year.

Unfortunately, this probably means Pujols will be playing for the Dodgers, Angels, or Giants next season, or even worse, the Cubs. Someone will probably offer him a 10 year, 28-30 million dollar per season contract, which the Cardinals would be foolish to do. If I were the Cardinals owner or GM, I'd offer him 7 years at $30 million per season at most.